Juggernaut #1

[harry_rag]

1 matched so far.

Bet 34 (11): 15.58 points on >0.5 goals in Boro v West Brom at 1.11

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Bet 35 (12): 15.58 points on Villarreal +3 v Juventus at 1.03

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Both won yesterday,

Bet 36 (13): 16 points on >5.5 corners in Liverpool v Leeds at 1.04

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Bet 37 (14): 16 points on Ajax to score v Benfica at 1.14

[aldric]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Both won yesterday,

Bet 36 (13): 16 points on >5.5 corners in Liverpool v Leeds at 1.04

Not often you see more goals than corners!  Very unlucky.

[harry_rag]

2 minutes ago, aldric said:

Not often you see more goals than corners!  Very unlucky.

No, but easy victories like that are the most likely scenario to sink a corners bet, especially when the team who are losing don’t offer much of a fight back. Time for a second reload!

[harry_rag]

1 out of 2 yesterday, next bet will be 38 (2) and stake will be 15.24 points after second "reload".

Overall record is 35 winners from 37 bets. l. Still in front, 6.21 to actual stakes v 7.2 had I done 10% of bank or 8.12 to level stakes.

Longest winning run so far remains 22 bets. Slightly better off than I was after the first losing bet.

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Bet 38 (2): 15.24 points on >0.5 goals in Lazio v Porto at 1.07

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Last bet won.

Bet 39 (3): 15.45 points on >0.5 goals in Leeds v Spurs at 1.05

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Bet 40 (4): 15.45 points on >0.5 goals in Salernitana v Bologna at 1.08

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Bet 41 (5): 15.45 points on Bournemouth to score v Stoke at 1.22

One of those where the riskier price on the fav appeals more than the simple >0,5 price.

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Bet 42 (6): 15.45 points on >0.5 goals in Getafe v Alaves at 1.18

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Bet 43 (7): 15.45 points on Bayern to get >0.5 corners in each half v E Frankfurt at 1/16 Hills

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5 winners yesterday, next stake is 17.25 points.

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Bet 44 (8): 17.25 points on >0.5 goals in Villarreal v Espanyol at 1.06

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Bet 45 (9): 17.25 points on >0.5 goals in Bochum v RB Leipzig at 1.07

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2 winners yesterday, next stake is 17.69 points.

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Bet 46 (10): 17.69 points on >0.5 goals in Brondby v Sonderjyske at 1.08

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Bet 47 (11): 17.69 points on >0.5 goals in Braga v Santa Clara at 1.08

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Finished Feb with a winner and a loser so time for the 3rd reload.

44 winners from 47 bets, still 2.14 points up using the staking plan, would be 5.01 to 10% of bank or 6.69 to level stakes.

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Bet 48 (1): 16 points on Betis to score v Vallecano at 1.2

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Bet 49 (2): 16.43 points on Everton to qualify v Borehamwood at 1.06

Previous bet stake should also read 16.43 points.

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Bet 50 (3): 17.27 points on >0.5 goals in Alaves v Sevilla at 1.14

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Bet 51 (4): 17.27 points on >0.5 goals in Gil Vicente v Estoril at 1.09

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 Closest thing we’ve got to a double b**t f**ked emoji! 

[aldric]

Nightmare ?

[harry_rag]

3 losers in the last 5 bets could mean we're into "wheels coming off" territory (or could just be a blip, of course, given the small sample size).

46 winners from 51 bets, 28.2 points down using the staking plan, 13.08 to 10% stakes and 10.77 to 10 point level stakes.

The staking plan always looks worst after a loss but has been best after the longer winning runs.

I think the notion of trying to roll over winnings until bank is increased by 25% (i.e. to get 25 points in front with the 100 point start bank) is over-ambitious given how many of the bets are priced at 1.1 or bigger. Something like 10% then reset would be far more achievable. This is how things stood prior to the 1st 3 losing bets:

1. 24 winning bets and +18.4 points
2. Another 10 winning bets and +20.02 points
3. Another 10 winning bets and +19.83 points

I think I'm currently paying the price for not having banked during the relatively good times.

I'm going to press on with this, trying to be slightly more selective with the bets. Next review point will be when the first of the following happens; month end, back to level or loss hits 50 points or more.

[harry_rag]

Bet 52 (1): 14.36 points on >0.5 goals in Stuttgart v BMG at 1.06

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Bet 53 (2): 14.53 points on >0.5 goals in Fiorentina v Verona at 1.06

[harry_rag]

On 3/5/2022 at 2:17 PM, harry_rag said:

I'm going to press on with this, trying to be slightly more selective with the bets. Next review point will be when the first of the following happens; month end, back to level or loss hits 50 points or more.

On second thoughts, in conjunction with the "tracker" thread, time to wrap this up and move to a simpler approach with a single thread for all bets whether my own or following others' selections. It's getting a bit too time consuming as it is and I also need to revisit the staking plan approach. Two more winners so the final figures look like this:

48 winners from 53 bets, 26.5 points down using the staking plan, 11.9 to 10% stakes and 9.59 to 10 point level stakes.