harry_rag Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Might as well give into the urge and start a thread for my own longer-priced selections. I'll preserve the "Dodging Bullet" thread for the super-short "certs" and carry on seeing how it goes with the tracker idea but this thread will be for my own selections with the emphasis on seeing if it's possible to turn a profit rather than just consecutive bets. 100 point starting bank, 10 points initial stake, maximum 5 bets per day. I'll expand on the staking plan in another post but it's intended to accelerate the growth a bit more with a degree of rolling the stakes over before banking. I'll track to level stakes and 10% of bank as well. Bet 1: 10 points on 20+ booking points in Palmeiras v Al Ahly at 1/12 Sky Bet The first FIFA World Club Cup semi-final is South America v Africa. Looking at past semis involving the South American representatives, cards seem to be reasonably plentiful. (The SA and European teams enter at this stage). French ref Turpin is the man in the middle. I think this is a decent price for 2 or more yellows (as short as 1/50 with the only other firm offering prices). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 I guess the above is now bet 2 as just been matched on this one. Bet 1: 10 points on >0.5 goals in Rangers U19 v Sevilla U19 at 1.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 (edited) On 2/8/2022 at 1:56 PM, harry_rag said: I'll expand on the staking plan in another post but it's intended to accelerate the growth a bit more with a degree of rolling the stakes over before banking. Ok, a bit elaborate but this is based on something I remember seeing someone do on a forum many years ago. Probably 25% nicking their idea with 75% of my own Heath-Robinson work grafted on! (I've got a spreadsheet set up that should do all the hard work.) 100 point starting bank - I'm staking £1 per point (real money) on all selections posted in this thread. 5 "juggernauts" head out on the road, each laden with 10% of the starting bank (so day 1 stake is 10 points for a maximum of 5 bets per day) Assuming 5 bets and they all win, next day's stake is total return divided by 5 (so rolling over the stakes equally) If less than 5 bets on any day the next day's stake is total return plus the unused stakes divided by 5 If a bet loses, that "wagon" is reloaded with another 10% of the starting bank from the "depot". The next day's stake is total return plus the reload amount divided by 5 After 5 losing bets there can be no further reloads so the next day's stake would be total return divided by 4 and the maximum number of bets reduced to 4 How long does this go on for? TBC! I was originally thinking of 50 bets but that might be over ambitious. (i.e. after 50 bets the fleet returns to the depot to unload then goes out again with 10% of the revised bank). Let's say the provisional aim is to reach 25% growth in starting bank rather than 50 bets. Edited February 10, 2022 by harry_rag Clarity around £ amount of stakes alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 Not a very emphatic start (a single goal landing one bet and a late red card the other) but 2 out of 2 so far! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Sounds intriguing! Watching with interest ? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 Bet 3 is 10 points on >0.5 goals in Inter v Roma at 1.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 That was nice and quick after 2 slightly nervy bets. I was just shy of getting matched in the Monaco game as well but not complaining, Tomorrow's stake is 10.18 points. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Points. not money? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Skittle said: Points. not money? Haven’t we been here before! All my bets on here are real money bets apart from the odd thread where I’ve expressly stated that it’s paper trade only. I’ve just always expressed stake as points rather than pounds. Whilst that’s “how I was brought up” to avoid potential dubious claims about massive stakes, the reality is that my points have always pretty much been a pound. Maybe I should follow @glennhughes and not state points or pounds, it might cause less confusion! Edited February 8, 2022 by harry_rag @-ed the wrong member Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Other people looking in on a thread may see the term 'points' and make their own assumption. They are less likely to take an interest in your posts because of this. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, Skittle said: Other people looking in on a thread may see the term 'points' and make their own assumption. They are less likely to take an interest in your posts because of this. Fair enough, question asked and answered, people can make their own mind up. I’m staking £1 per point, other people (in the unlikely event they wish to follow that rigidly) can go 50p, £2, £10 per point or whatever. I’ve followed plenty of bets on here over the past few weeks with no regard whatsoever for the stated stake. I get your point, but I’d be interested to know if anyone else had a similar take prior to you asking the question. It would certainly have never crossed my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I couldn't care less if you used points or £. I did wonder if you were very wealthy and doing £1k a point or something ??? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glennhughes Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 10 hours ago, harry_rag said: Haven’t we been here before! All my bets on here are real money bets apart from the odd thread where I’ve expressly stated that it’s paper trade only. I’ve just always expressed stake as points rather than pounds. Whilst that’s “how I was brought up” to avoid potential dubious claims about massive stakes, the reality is that my points have always pretty much been a pound. Maybe I should follow @glennhughes and not state points or pounds, it might cause less confusion! All in euros for me...unfortunately I never quite managed to get the hang of the euro sign on the keyboard,one of my many senior moments or maybe a bit lazy harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 16 hours ago, harry_rag said: Tomorrow's stake is 10.18 points. Can't read my own spreadsheet, it's 10.36! Bet 4: 10.36 points on Man C most corners v Brentford at 1.09 Hard to see the visitors gaining most flag kicks and the best price I've seen is 1/20. Was thinking of City +1 on the corner handicap at 1/50 as a "bullet dodging" bet. Feels like a value play if not a raging certainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 Bet won, next stake 10.55 points. On one level it was disappointing to only have one bet yesterday (bad traffic maybe) but I'm happy enough that I'm not forcing the pace by taking bets or prices I'm not happy with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I seem to remember one or two threads going back over the years where 'points' were being used. I always gave more creedence to a selection if there was money involved as there would seem to be no real interest as to whether the bet wins or not. Nothing to lose so they can go gung ho, harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, Skittle said: I seem to remember one or two threads going back over the years where 'points' were being used. I always gave more creedence to a selection if there was money involved as there would seem to be no real interest as to whether the bet wins or not. Nothing to lose so they can go gung ho, We obviously come at this from completely different angles. I appreciate I'm new to proper Glory Hunting but, in my experience of the wider world of betting on forums the preferred etiquette was to use points for stakes and banks so no-one felt uncomfortable whether they were betting quids, tenners or hundreds. It discouraged the bullshit merchants who claimed they were having thousands on every bet when they clearly didn't know their arse from their elbow. I've always put my real money bets up using points and won't be changing now. In no way have I ever equated a stake expressed in points with a paper trade. I also think that it's a little naive to assume that every bet with a £ next to it is necessarily carrying real money or the amount of money stated. Someone could still state £ when they are only paper trading or could really be staking a tenth or even 10 times the amount in question. I guess we'll just have to agree to differ because I can't see either of us being converted to the other's point of view. Torque and aldric 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 Whilst the "issue" still bemuses me (in nearly 20 years of posting well over 10,000 bets in this way no-one has ever queried it before) I've edited the staking plan post to be explicit on the subject of the real money stakes being applied to these bets. Personally I judge threads on the performance of the posted bets with no regard to the "denominator" used for the stake. I'd much rather follow someone who stated points and made a consistent profit than someone who stated £ but had a worse return. If someone suddenly ratcheted up the stakes by a silly amount (something I've never done) I'd think they were a muppet regardless and steer well clear. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 Bet 5: 10.55 points on Liverpool to get most corners v Leicester at 1/9 Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 Bet 6: 10.55 points on >0.5 goals in Juventus v Sassuolo at 1.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 Bet 7: 10.55 points on Valencia +4 v A Bilbao at 1/33 with Lads i was surprised that Bilbao +3 was as short as 1.01 and Valencia +3 as long as 1.14. I’d have taken that as a value play but having tracked down a reasonable +4 line I’m going to trade off a bit of value for extra safety. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Bet 5: 10.55 points on Liverpool to get most corners v Leicester at 1/9 Lads That was close! 7-6 with Leicester getting the last 2 corners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 10 hours ago, harry_rag said: That was close! 7-6 with Leicester getting the last 2 corners. Leicester were ahead as well for most of the game. Glad it turned around ? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 3 out of 3 yesterday. Next bet is bet 8 and stake will be 10.93 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Appreciate this thread is hardly living up to it's name so far in terms of sheer momentum! No point in forcing the bets though, patience is key in terms of confidence in the selection and price. Looks like I may have dodged one today as I tried to get matched on Al Hilal +3 in the FIFA Club World Cup. Currently losing 3-0 and down to 9 men! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Bet 8: 10.93 points on Hull v Fulham >0.5 goals at 1.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Bet 9: 10.93 points on Everton v Leeds >0.5 goals at 1.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Bet 10: 10.93 points on Villarreal +3 v R Madrid at 1.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Bet 11: 10.93 points on Palmeiras +4 v Chelsea at 1/50 Uni Almost went wild with the +3 at 1.2 ish but safety first. I don't see this being too easy for Chelsea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Bet 12: 10.93 points on both teams to receive a card at 1/7 365 I guess busy Saturdays make it fairly easy to get my "five a day" in, after me bemoaning the lack of action and traction in this thread. 4 out of 4 so far assuming no last 10 minute meltdown in Spain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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