Racing Chat - Friday 10th September

[The Brigadier]

There maybe an odd shower or two but it seems we may well be racing on good fast ground again for day three of the Doncaster St Leger meeting. Here are my early thoughts :-

 

Doncaster 140

The listed Flying Scotsman Stakes can produce a smart two year old and ten go to post for this years renewal. The form horse undoubtably is Roger Fell’s star two year old Eldrickjones but he’s still a maiden and although dropping in class may be vulnerable to something that’s on the upgrade. Charlie Appleby’s Noble Truth is held in high regard but was a bit disappointing last time out at York in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes and takes a drop in grade today. He should be on the premises for sure. York Convivial Maiden winner Hoi Ya Mal is going the other way and taking a step up in class but he looks classy and it would be no shock were he to take a hand in the finish. Throw in a couple of impressive maiden winners in Marcus Tregoning’s Ribhi and Richard Hannon’s Razzle Dazzle and we have a very interesting race of juveniles either stepping down in class or taking a step up the equine ladder. A tough call from a betting angle with slight preference for the Hannon runner Razzle Dazzle who couldn’t of been any more impressive when winning at Newmarket in August under his owners retained jockey Andrea Atzeni who rides again today. 

RAZZLE DAZZLE 1 point each way @ 11/2 1/5 123 BetVictor

 

Doncaster 2.10

The Group 2 Flying Childers is run over the straight 5F and with eleven horses going to post will be some spectacle. The favourite Armor is the one they all have to beat being officially 6lb and more ahead of the field in ratings. His best effort at Goodwood was gained on soft ground so he won’t mind any more rain that may fall on Town Moor. I’m hoping the ground doesn’t ease too much though as I want to be with Eve Johnson Houghton’s Chipotle who was backed from 40/1 into 18/1 for the Nunthorpe las5 time against his elders and despite being squeezed out at the start made no impression in finishing 9th of the 14 participants. He had Armor behind when winning at Royal Ascot and I still feel there’s more sprint’s to be won with this Havana Gold colt when conditions suit. 5F on fast ground are what he needs and I’ll play each way as long as soft doesn’t creep into the going description in which case I would be all over Armor. 

CHIPOTLE (on good or faster ground) 1 point each way @ 10/1 1/5 123 Bet365

 

Doncaster 2.40

The 2m2F Doncaster Cup could easily be super star stayer Stradivarius’s final race on a racecourse as the ground could easily of gone by the time the Ascot Champions Meeting comes around in October and as long as the ground doesn’t go soft (in which his trainers John and Thady Gosden will no doubt pull him out anyway) he should be beating his six rivals today. There’s little doubt he’s not the horse he once was but he already holds Eagles By Day, Nayef Road (several times) and The Grand Visir so it’s hard to see any of that trio worrying Bjorn Nelson’s 7 year old. Trueshan is the one that can beat the favourite but only really if the ground went on the slow side, he too would be pulled out no doubt if his canny trainer Alan King felt there wasn’t  enough juice in the ground. The improver in the race is the David Simcock runner Rodrigo Diaz who has officially 13lb to find mind. From a punting perspective I don’t  think there’s an angle here without knowing the ground conditions as on fast ground Stradivarius wins with Trueshan a likely non runner and on soft ground Trueshan wins with Stradivarius a likely non runner! On genuine good ground I’ll stick with Stradivarius especially were he to drift to around the even money mark. 

STRADIVARIUS  2 points win @ 9/10 Paddy Power

 

Doncaster 3.15

The Mallard Handicap is run over the St Leger distance of 1m6F 115yds and there are several contenders here who will be looking to the sky for some rain as they prefer to get their toe in. These include Prince Alex, Rhythmic Intent and Nuits St Georges. The most interesting runner in the field is bottom weight Sevenna Star who wears a hood for the first time and it’s trained by Irish trainer Emmet Mullins who’s horses must always be given a second look when he sends them over from Ireland. He has been well found in the market now and I’ll look elsewhere for the likely winner. One horse who will stay well is the Jane Chapple Hyam runner Uber Cool who impressed at Chester after a long break back in May and has run well in defeat twice since at 2m and latterly over 14F when 1 1/4L 4th to Yesyes in a listed contest at Chester. The handicapper has left him on the same mark and this Born To Sea gelding has an excellent strike rate of 7 wins from 16 career starts. Robert Tart has ridden him on two of his three most recent starts and is in the saddle today and with question marks over plenty of his rivals is decent each way value. 

UBER COOL 1 point each way @ 7/1 1/5 1234 Bet Victor

 

Doncaster 3.45

A competitive 6F 111yds handicap concludes the ITV races at Doncaster on Day 3 with Assad currently heading the betting. He’s a lightly raced Shadwell horse who was touched off by one of his rivals today in Desert Doctor at Ffos Las last month. I’m not sure that form is worth that much and I’m prepared to take the pair of them on here. The horse I like is William Muir & Chris Grassick’s Mitrosonfire who’s been consistent all season winning four races. He beat Wednesday’s finale winner Wentworth Falls at Newmarket in August and races here off of only 3lb higher. He looks decent each way value with PJ McDonald taking over who’s two from two on the horse. 

MITROSONFIRE  1 1/2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 1234 BetVictor

 

 

[Zilzalian]

2 x 2YO races At Donny speed figures.

210 G2 Doncaster

1 Armor                       128

2 Chipotle                    127

3 Corazon                    121

At the prices I like Chipotle (I think @The Brigadierhas called this just about correct)

140 Doncaster Listed

1 Hoo Ya Mal              123

2 Find                         121

3 Noble Truth             119

For me the bet in this race is non of the above

I think Ribhi  116+++ will finish up one of the very best 2yo of 2021 and will make this lot look like donkeys (i do like to stick my neck out, feel free to call me a nob head if i'm wrong)