Racing Chat- Saturday 14th August

[The Brigadier]

York’s Ebor meeting is on the horizon but we have some decent terrestrial televised racing for Saturday with 8 races shown by ITV. The ground should be perfect for all three meetings with the likeliest fastest ground found at Newmarket. Here we go then with my thoughts and selections for Saturday:- 

 

Newbury 145

The 7F Denford Stakes is for two year olds and is better known by its old title of the Washington Singer Stakes. To my eyes this looks like a straight match between Andrew Balding’s Masekela and Roger Varian’s Bayside Boy. Both stables are in red hot form with slight preference for the latter who impressed me immensely when winning over course and distance on his debut when Varian was struggling for two year old winners. This New Bay colt came late and fast to quicken past the red hot favourite of the Gosden’s looking all over a pattern performer. I’ll take him over Masekela who has more substance to his form having run Godolphin’s Native Trail to a short head in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July. 

BAYSIDE BAY 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Newmarket 200

It has to be said that Pam Sly’s mare Eileendover has been a tad disappointing in her three runs on the level this flat season. As one of my 20 to follow for the season I was expecting to see her contesting the Ebor next weekend but her three runs on the level have only given her a mark of 92 which would be nowhere near enough to get her into the big race next weekend. She can however run here in this 14F fillies only handicap and it looks a good place to start her handicap campaign off. She can run well and may have most to fear from William Haggas’s Midrarr fresh from winning at Wolverhampton in the week and having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for that success. She’s on a roll although may not be as suited to turf as she is to a synthetic surface. The other 5 runners all have a chance of sorts but I’ve got to give my old friend Eileendover a final chance to prove that she’s smart. 

EILEENDOVER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

 

Newbury 220

Last year’s comfortable winner Hukum is back to defend his title in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes and despite having to carry a 3lb penalty for his recent Group 3 win at York can follow up. Owen Burrow’s flag bearer impressed that day over 14F and won’t mind the slight drop in distance or if there was the odd shower or two. The owners retained jockey Jim Crowley is in the saddle as he has been for all of the Sea The Star’s nine career starts. For a Group 3 the opposition is quite tame in my opinion with the best possibly the tenacious Golden Pass of Hugo Palmer’s. He ideally needs fast ground though so any showers would be against her. He won’t be much of a price I’m afraid but Hukum really should be winning this. 

HUKUM 3 points win @ EVS Bet365

 

Newmarket 235

A unique annual race is the grey horse handicap open only to horses registered as grey. In this PC world we live in I’m surprised no one has stood up and campaigned for races for other coloured horses!! Case Key won this very race in 2017 and 2019 and has claims as has Mitrosonfire who just got up on the line in the Shergar Cup at Ascot last Saturday and has only been raised a pound. He’s the likely danger to my selection which is Eve Johnson Houghton’s My Style who has previous in this race himself having finished 3rd in 2019 (to Case Key) and by winning it last year  off of a mark of 72 which is 2lb lower than he can race off of now. He has actually won off of 76 so is on a mark lower than his last winning one and looks to have been primed for this contest today with regular rider Georgia Dobie in the saddle. He looks sure to go well and can be backed each way. 

MY STYLE 2 points each way @ 7/1 1/5^th 123 William Hills

 

Newbury 255

Two horses stand out here to me in this 7F 0-95 handicap and they’re the two three year olds. Aratus is the current favourite and making his handicap debut here could be well treated off of 94 for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby. He’s been pulled out before due to good to soft ground so any easing in the ground would be against him. He looks sure to go well although slight preference is for the Ed Walker trained improver Sunset Bay. She’s on a hat trick following victories at Newbury and Sandown over today’s trip of 7F on soft and then fast ground. She bolted up at Sandown last time and that win wasn’t lost on the handicapper who has shunted her up 9lb. It was interesting that in a recent interview regarding Walkers best chances at York next week he selected this filly as his best chance. Obviously there’s been a change of thought as she runs here but he does believe she’s up to pattern class and if that’s the case she can still have some mileage from her current mark of 89. Hollie Doyle rides her for the first time and she can beat Aratus. 

SUNSET BAY 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Ripon 310

The consolation Great St Wilfred Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 with Ghathanfar a worthy favourite as Tracy Waggott’s charge comes here in very good form and could be well drawn in stall 20. He is worth backing although I’m actually more interested in Marks Choice who always runs well here, only finishing out of the frame once in ten starts (3011431134) which includes a 3rd in this very race a year ago off of a 7lb higher mark. He won over course and distance back in April on his reappearance off of 77 and can race today off of 75 so is well handicapped if getting back to the form of earlier in the season. He’s had a wind operation since (his fourth!)we last saw him when his jockey said he stopped quickly. It’s worth taking a chance on Sam England’s 5 year old if the operation has worked. His draw of 10 is maybe a negative unfortunately but I can’t resist an each way bet on Cam Hardie’s ride here. 

MARKS CHOICE 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/5^th 123456 Paddy Power

GHATHANFAR 2 points each way @ 15/2 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

 

Newbury 330

Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail has been well well backed throughout the week as the people in the know knew that stable companion Space Blues was a doubtful runner and can take this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes run over 7F. William Buick takes over now from Pat Dobbs who certainly looked after this Dubawi half brother to Telecaster amongst others when he re-appeared at Ascot in the Group 2 Summer Mile last month. That was his first start since the Dubai Carnival in March and he has always been held in high regard by the Boys in Blue. The Shadwell pair of Danyah and Motakhayyel look the chief threats and with Jim Crowley choosing the former and with him finishing ahead of Motakhayyel at Ascot last time may turn out to be Al Suhail’s biggest danger. 

AL SUHAIL 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Ripon 345

The days big sprint is the Great St Wilfred Handicap run over 6F. I advised an each way bet on last years winner Stanton earlier in the week at 14/1 and am very happy with that suggestion as he’s contracted to half those odds now. He has plenty going for him and looks sure to run a big race with the only negative being his draw in 8 as high numbers appear to have the best chance through the last ten years in this race and the earlier consolation race. For that reason alone I won’t be pressing up the bet and I’m happy enough to leave the staking plan with just Staxton. 

STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 (advised Tuesday) Paddy Power ¼ 1234

 

[Villa Chris]

Some jump racing for me to have a go at tomorrow . Will be starting a profit/loss update with my bets from now on. My top rated for the 3 races I’ve looked at.

Perth 3.50 

Mrs Hyde, current price is 17/2. I’m going to hold off that because forecast odds are 12/1 and it’s not bog until 9.00 tomorrow morning. She’s been out of sorts this year after running well the previous and is now on her last winning mark . Ingleby Hollow is second in the ratings. 
 

Perth 4.25 

Cauis Marcius, currently 7/2, and again I’m going to wait until the morning to see if I can squeeze a bit more out of him. 3/4 at Perth with Brian Hughes on board. Competitive little race but I’m hoping he’s got too much class for the field and I still have him handicapped to win. Second in the ratings is the consistent Dakota Beat 

 

Perth 4.55

Brotherly Company 9/4. I’ve taken the price as I think it will go off shorter. Progressive RPRs and won his last two with ease . Seems to still have a few Ibs to spare so hopefully the hat-trick beckons . Second in the ratings is Top Of The Charts 

All 10 point wins , will update odds at 9 tomorrow 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Villa Chris