Racing Chat - Friday July 3oth

[The Brigadier]

Day 4 of Glorious Goodwood and the ground continues to dry with Friday’s conditions likely to ride just on the slow side of good. Here are my thoughts for the first 5 races. Other selections for the day can be found on the ‘racing tips’ section of the site. 

Goodwood 150

One of only a handful of races started by flag on the flat, this 2m 4 1/2F handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 and a good starting point is crucial despite the distance. It certainly has a wide open look to it with the first four from last year all back to battle again. Just Hubert was the victor then by a neck from Rochester House with a further 3/4L back to Smart Champion and The Grand Visir who passed the line together. The best of that quartet at today’s revised weights is David Simcock’s Smart Champion who is 5lb better of with the winner and 6lb better off with the other two. Saffie Osborne takes the ride today and is excellent value for her 5lb claim and looks great each way value here. He can pull hard and ideally needs a good pace to chase so he comes with his issues but at the likely odds I’m happy to take a chance here that things fall right for him. Platform Nineteen is a progressive stayer and has claims but he has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark here and has yet to race beyond two miles. 

SMART CHAMPION 1 point each way @ 9/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 123456

 

Goodwood 225

I think we may have a genuine Group 1 horse here racing in a Group 3 with William Haggas’s exciting Baaed who can take this years renewal of the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes run over a mile. It’s hard not to have been impressed with his three wins at Leicester and twice on the Newmarket July course with an impressive 4L victory from the useful Maximal in the listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes. Haggas is taking things slowly with this Sea The Stars full brother to the smart Hukum and although this represents a step up in grade he should see these off with ease. El Drama was punching too high last time when last of 4 in the Eclipse and the biggest danger may well be Sir Mark Todd’s Tasman Bay who chased home Alenquer in the Group 3 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot but this really is all about Baaed and although he will be too skinny to back singly maybe look for a price for him to win by over 2 or 3 lengths.

 

Goodwood 300

This years Unibet Golden Mile Handicap has once again attracted a maximum field of 20 and has to be my favourite big race handicap of the season. The main reason is that the draw is so important. The configuration of the track is such that they hit a sharp right hand bend a furlong after the start and if you’re drawn wide you have to either drop in behind the field or be prepared to lose valuable ground out wide. It really is important to be drawn on the inside (low numbers) and is year in year out a race where I just concentrate on those drawn 1 to 9. The last ten winners have been drawn 1-8-13-5-9-1-3-3-3-2 and there are a trio worth backing here. Firstly Path Of Thunder who is officially 5lb well in carrying just a 3lb penalty for a very easy win at Newmarket last time and has blagged stall 3. William Buick rides for Charlie Appleby and he’s the most likely winner and must be included in any staking plan. Magical  Morning (stall 11) and Maydanny (5) met at Sandown last time with the former coming out on top to the tune of 3/4L but is 6lb worse off with Maydanny who won at the track last season and missed a handicap on the opening day due to the soft ground. He can turn the tables with Magical Morning and run a big race. The other horse I think can be in the shake up is Johan who’s win at Salisbury last time was franked on Tuesday by the 4th that day Migration winning. He’s in stall 2 and though 4lb higher has the assistance of Ryan Moore. They’re my three against the field with my main bet on Path Of Thunder. 

PATH OF THUNDER 3 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

JOHAN 1 point win @ 10/1 Bet365

MAYDANNY 1 point win @ 6/1 Bet365

 

Goodwood 335

This year’s Group 2 Qatar King George Stakes sees Battash going for an unprecedented 5th consecutive victory in the race. He’s 7 years old now and having had a nice first run of the season at Royal Ascot when finishing 4th in the Kings Stand Stakes must have a big chance. At around 11/8 though is he a good as he once was? There’s no sentiment allowed in gambling mind so I’ll take him on today with the improving three year old Dragon Symbol who acts on any ground and could easily still be improving as this is only Archie Watson’s colt’s 8th career run as opposed to Battash’s 25th. He’s finished runner up in the Group 1 contests the Commonwealth Cup (finished first but was demoted for interference) and July Cup already this season and has the assistance once more of Oisin Murphy. He’s dropping back from 6F but is very speedy and that shouldn’t hinder him. He’s officially got 7lb to find with the favourite here but with a combination of him going forward and possibly Battash declining should bring them closer together.  Glass Slippers was runner up to Battash in this last season but we haven’t seen him this season so is overlooked. 

DRAGON SYMBOL 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Goodwood 410

The ground is mighty important in this Group 3 Glorious Stakes as favourite Mogul who is rated 4lb and more better than these doesn’t apparat to like soft ground. He was caught out last time out in the Coronation Cup at Epsom by the late rain and a line can be struck through that run.  He’s a dual group 1 winner last season on good ground and if the ground continues to dry is the one to beat. He’s up against the penalised Euchen Glen who won twice this season at Sandown and the improving Passion And Glory who’s stepping out of handicap company. Pablo Escobar won this last season and is two from three at the track but if the ground reverts close to good ground the selection has to be Aiden O’Briens globe trotting Mogul who may just be too good for these. 

MOGUL (no bet on soft or worse) 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

[fd1972uk]

Nothing much catching my eye, usually like trying out the cash back bets, but not really digging them, all in 1435.

Ive took a e/w on Perotto 12/1 with a cashback if it places in 4.

So think the fav is going to be hard to beat, but ain't worth touching. 

Will look around some of the others on show and see if anything catches the eye.