Racing Chat - Friday July 3oth

[The Brigadier]

Day 4 of Glorious Goodwood and the ground continues to dry with Friday’s conditions likely to ride just on the slow side of good. Here are my thoughts for the first 5 races. Other selections for the day can be found on the ‘racing tips’ section of the site. 

Goodwood 150

One of only a handful of races started by flag on the flat, this 2m 4 1/2F handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 and a good starting point is crucial despite the distance. It certainly has a wide open look to it with the first four from last year all back to battle again. Just Hubert was the victor then by a neck from Rochester House with a further 3/4L back to Smart Champion and The Grand Visir who passed the line together. The best of that quartet at today’s revised weights is David Simcock’s Smart Champion who is 5lb better of with the winner and 6lb better off with the other two. Saffie Osborne takes the ride today and is excellent value for her 5lb claim and looks great each way value here. He can pull hard and ideally needs a good pace to chase so he comes with his issues but at the likely odds I’m happy to take a chance here that things fall right for him. Platform Nineteen is a progressive stayer and has claims but he has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark here and has yet to race beyond two miles. 

SMART CHAMPION 1 point each way @ 9/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 123456

 

Goodwood 225

I think we may have a genuine Group 1 horse here racing in a Group 3 with William Haggas’s exciting Baaed who can take this years renewal of the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes run over a mile. It’s hard not to have been impressed with his three wins at Leicester and twice on the Newmarket July course with an impressive 4L victory from the useful Maximal in the listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes. Haggas is taking things slowly with this Sea The Stars full brother to the smart Hukum and although this represents a step up in grade he should see these off with ease. El Drama was punching too high last time when last of 4 in the Eclipse and the biggest danger may well be Sir Mark Todd’s Tasman Bay who chased home Alenquer in the Group 3 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot but this really is all about Baaed and although he will be too skinny to back singly maybe look for a price for him to win by over 2 or 3 lengths.

 

Goodwood 300

This years Unibet Golden Mile Handicap has once again attracted a maximum field of 20 and has to be my favourite big race handicap of the season. The main reason is that the draw is so important. The configuration of the track is such that they hit a sharp right hand bend a furlong after the start and if you’re drawn wide you have to either drop in behind the field or be prepared to lose valuable ground out wide. It really is important to be drawn on the inside (low numbers) and is year in year out a race where I just concentrate on those drawn 1 to 9. The last ten winners have been drawn 1-8-13-5-9-1-3-3-3-2 and there are a trio worth backing here. Firstly Path Of Thunder who is officially 5lb well in carrying just a 3lb penalty for a very easy win at Newmarket last time and has blagged stall 3. William Buick rides for Charlie Appleby and he’s the most likely winner and must be included in any staking plan. Magical  Morning (stall 11) and Maydanny (5) met at Sandown last time with the former coming out on top to the tune of 3/4L but is 6lb worse off with Maydanny who won at the track last season and missed a handicap on the opening day due to the soft ground. He can turn the tables with Magical Morning and run a big race. The other horse I think can be in the shake up is Johan who’s win at Salisbury last time was franked on Tuesday by the 4th that day Migration winning. He’s in stall 2 and though 4lb higher has the assistance of Ryan Moore. They’re my three against the field with my main bet on Path Of Thunder. 

PATH OF THUNDER 3 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

JOHAN 1 point win @ 10/1 Bet365

MAYDANNY 1 point win @ 6/1 Bet365

 

Goodwood 335

This year’s Group 2 Qatar King George Stakes sees Battash going for an unprecedented 5th consecutive victory in the race. He’s 7 years old now and having had a nice first run of the season at Royal Ascot when finishing 4th in the Kings Stand Stakes must have a big chance. At around 11/8 though is he a good as he once was? There’s no sentiment allowed in gambling mind so I’ll take him on today with the improving three year old Dragon Symbol who acts on any ground and could easily still be improving as this is only Archie Watson’s colt’s 8th career run as opposed to Battash’s 25th. He’s finished runner up in the Group 1 contests the Commonwealth Cup (finished first but was demoted for interference) and July Cup already this season and has the assistance once more of Oisin Murphy. He’s dropping back from 6F but is very speedy and that shouldn’t hinder him. He’s officially got 7lb to find with the favourite here but with a combination of him going forward and possibly Battash declining should bring them closer together.  Glass Slippers was runner up to Battash in this last season but we haven’t seen him this season so is overlooked. 

DRAGON SYMBOL 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Goodwood 410

The ground is mighty important in this Group 3 Glorious Stakes as favourite Mogul who is rated 4lb and more better than these doesn’t apparat to like soft ground. He was caught out last time out in the Coronation Cup at Epsom by the late rain and a line can be struck through that run.  He’s a dual group 1 winner last season on good ground and if the ground continues to dry is the one to beat. He’s up against the penalised Euchen Glen who won twice this season at Sandown and the improving Passion And Glory who’s stepping out of handicap company. Pablo Escobar won this last season and is two from three at the track but if the ground reverts close to good ground the selection has to be Aiden O’Briens globe trotting Mogul who may just be too good for these. 

MOGUL (no bet on soft or worse) 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

[fd1972uk]

Nothing much catching my eye, usually like trying out the cash back bets, but not really digging them, all in 1435.

Ive took a e/w on Perotto 12/1 with a cashback if it places in 4.

So think the fav is going to be hard to beat, but ain't worth touching. 

Will look around some of the others on show and see if anything catches the eye. 

[Zilzalian]

I dont take Nursery's too seriously so i only mess about with small fc and tc

For information purposes only, the top 3 rated by my speed figures are all trained by Hannon

1 Topaz Power 123

2 Robjon           120

3 Sows              119+ (probably prefers G-F ground)

 

Yesterday i was banging on about Audarya being the best bet (6/4-11/4) i have seen in 2 years i stand by that, but the Horse didn't turn up, anyone suggesting that that was its running or just wasn't good enough totally ignores form in my opinion and its all about opinions. But i digress, today we have the worst 6/4 shot i have seen in a good while in Battash, yes it can win but 6/4? i personally wouldn't touch it at 6/1. many backed Suesa at Ascot it did a lot better than the bear result appears so might be worth a nibble but im going with Glass Slippers hoping Kevin Ryan has got it fit.

[roger2256]

July +4.5

1pt level stakes win only 

15.55 Ban White Turf 7/2 

16.45 Gd Maybury 10/1

16.55 Ban Norley 8/1

Prices as of now b365 

 

Just for fun let's see about about racking up a few shorties in an acca using willhill and their daily boost.

 

19.30 Nmk My Astra  10 returns 13.92

Edited July 30, 2021 by roger2256
Addition

[fd1972uk]

Couple of multiples using free bets. 

[black rabbit]

Rajinsky   1 50  good     1/4 pt win   20/1  betfair 

Escobar   3 00 good  1/4 pt win  19/1  betfair

Aquitted   3 00 good   1/4  pt  win   15/1 betfair 

Arecibo  3 35 good 1/4 pt win  38/1  betfair

Barat    3 10  wol   1/4 pt win  15/1  betfair

Nibrou   4 30 galw  1/2  pt win 10/1 betfair 

Golden spear  5 00 galw  1/4 pt win  20/1 betfair 

 

 

P/L  +  116 pts

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

1.50 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Smart Champion @ 15/2 (stays forever, very close in this last year, essentially 11lbs lower this year, okay prep runs but comes into his own under marathon conditions)

2.25 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Tactical @ 12/1 (probably playing for 2nd but worth a go at a mile and the improving ground will certainly help)

3.00 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Greenside @ 50/1 (open race so taking a punt on an old-timer at a price. Ran well here not long ago and was a bit drifter in the market before its run at Salisbury last time. 5lbs off his back today and could go well at big odds)

3.35 Goodwood - 2pts win Art Power @ 5/1 (this is going to be frantic and it might pay to have one with good all round pace. Art Power stays 6f but has plenty of speed and I think that could really help late on today.)

4.10 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Eagles By Day @ 16/1 (quite an open race and question marks over a couple of those at the head of the market so will chance Eagles By Day on seasonal reappearance at a price. Thought he would land a big stayers' race after winning at York but couldn't get home over two miles and although 1m6f may be ideal, this should be manageable in easier company today.)

4.45 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Maybury @ 7/1 (on its 2nd two starts back would have a big chance off a mark of 80 given the horse that beat it is now almost a 100-rated animal. Had an excuse when clipping heels at Ascot and I think they might go forward a bit more today as clearly stays 6f well and if doing so, can go very close.)

5.20 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Champagne Piaff @ 18/1 (big step up in trip after three runs at 7f last year but the form of his first two runs is extremely strong and makes him look well handicapped. Off since a below par run in a group race on heavy ground but given the strength of its form, interesting they've gone for this race rather than a shorter trip so an interesting candidate)

[cannotbebeat]

5.25 Bath Youllovemewheniwin 13/2

5.50 Newmarket Chipstead 7/2

6.00 Bath True Force 8/1

6.55 Newmarket Good Soul 9/2

8.00 Newmarket Lalania 4/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[alancraik]

todays Goodwood selections

1:50 - The Grand Visir 7/1 e/w

2:25 - Baaeed 8/15 win

3:00 - Path of Thunder 11/4 win

3:35 - Battaash 15/8 win

4:10 - Outbow 9/1 e/w

5:20 - Wink of an Eye 10/3 win

[azzybear]

Sir tivo 3.20

[The Equaliser]

Today's Goodwood bets

1.50 The Grand Visir £2.50 win at 9.4 = £20.58

2.25 Tasman Bay £2.00 at 11.5 (W/out the fav) unmatched

3.00 Rhoscolyn £3.20 win at 7.6 = £20.70 drawn 8 but not mentioned by @TheBrigadierbut have had £1.20 at 11/4 on his selection Path Of thunder as an insurance cover bet

3.25 Suesa (WB) £2.20 win at 10.5 = £20.48.  Have had £1 win ins bet on Dragons Symbol at 3/1.  Would love to see Battaash beat the field out of sight though

4.10 Pablo Escobarr £2 win at 15.00 = £27.44; ins bet on Passion And Glory £2 3TB at 1.76 = £2.06

4.45 Tropaz Power £1 w at 15/2, Jadlaan £1 win at 9/1, Robjon £1 win at 10/1

5.20 Marching Army £2 win at 14.5 with a £2 3TB bet at 2.04 on Wink Of An eye ins bet

Can't fail not to lose today can I? ? 

Total stakes £24.10

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by The Equaliser

[yossa6133]

15 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

But i digress, today we have the worst 6/4 shot i have seen in a good while in Battash, yes it can win but 6/4? i personally wouldn't touch it at 6/1.

Why are you against Battaash? Well clear on official ratings, 4/4 at the track.

[Villa Chris]

29 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Why are you against Battaash? Well clear on official ratings, 4/4 at the track.

Age and LTO, Maybe ? I like Dragon Symbol who’s a very classy horse, but just feel Battash should still just about outclass him. Will be close though. 

[Villa Chris]

Good to see a couple on here going after The Grand Visir who’s consistent and would be nice to see him grab this. His weight may hinder him again though. 

[yossa6133]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Age and LTO, Maybe ? I like Dragon Symbol who’s a very classy horse, but just feel Battash should still just about outclass him. Will be close though. 

Went off like scalded cats last time, most of them came from the back.

[Wanderlust]

11 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Went off like scalded cats last time, most of them came from the back.

And Ascot has never been his course. Been turned over 4 times out of 5 there. 

Whereas he loves Goodwood. 4 from 4 going for the 5 timer.

Maybe age is catching up on him, but people were saying that last year when he turned up for this race. Not only did he win, he broke the track record!!

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Why are you against Battaash? Well clear on official ratings, 4/4 at the track.

I am not against Battash i am against its price like i was for the price of Audarya its all about Value. Battash not getting any younger and glass slippers beat it when it was and that horse is 20/1 so even the place on Glass slippers is better than the win on Battash,  That still leaves a good field to pick from suesa, liberty beach amongst a good few, I stick my neck out and say Battash wont get placed but im probably wrong, but thats how i see the race panning out so i see a good forecast opportunity.

[Villa Chris]

It’s good seeing big name favourites turned over, but I’ve always had a soft spot for Battash , and hopefully he wins this. 

[yossa6133]

Fair play, spot on Zilzalian.

[Zilzalian]

12 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I am not against Battash i am against its price like i was for the price of Audarya its all about Value. Battash not getting any younger and glass slippers beat it when it was and that horse is 20/1 so even the place on Glass slippers is better than the win on Battash,  That still leaves a good field to pick from suesa, liberty beach amongst a good few, I stick my neck out and say Battash wont get placed but im probably wrong, but thats how i see the race panning out so i see a good forecast opportunity.

Just shows you can call it right and still come unstuck Dragon Symbol buggered my forecast up and i had Glass slippers to win.

[The Equaliser]

17 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I dont take Nursery's too seriously so i only mess about with small fc and tc

For information purposes only, the top 3 rated by my speed figures are all trained by Hannon

1 Topaz Power 123

2 Robjon           120

3 Sows              119+ (probably prefers G-F ground)

 

Yesterday i was banging on about Audarya being the best bet (6/4-11/4) i have seen in 2 years i stand by that, but the Horse didn't turn up, anyone suggesting that that was its running or just wasn't good enough totally ignores form in my opinion and its all about opinions. But i digress, today we have the worst 6/4 shot i have seen in a good while in Battash, yes it can win but 6/4? i personally wouldn't touch it at 6/1. many backed Suesa at Ascot it did a lot better than the bear result appears so might be worth a nibble but im going with Glass Slippers hoping Kevin Ryan has got it fit.

Many thanks for mentioning the merits of Suesa, paid for my Goodwood exploits today

[Offramp]

The non runners seem to banjaxed my acca. It was a very of two halves... The top half was going well but the NRs muddied the water.

[fd1972uk]

 Buick, the worst and best in less than an hour, shocking ride on Path of Thunder and then Suesa next race. 

Had Dragon Symbol, but was never getting near it, too short a distance for it, it seems. 

[The Equaliser]

5 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

 Buick, the worst and best in less than an hour, shocking ride on Path of Thunder and then Suesa next race. 

Had Dragon Symbol, but was never getting near it, too short a distance for it, it seems. 

He's has run some very bad rides for me also, however, one can quite often get your money back and more when he rides good priced winners

[fd1972uk]

Ah well, not good at all, Night Hunter at 4/9 was a poor priced option that I took, but my 4 horse straight away. 

Only Perotto gave me a partial cashback for 4th, if it had nicked 3rd would have snuck a few pennies back to me on top of cashback. 

Debating Goodwood tomorrow, had a terrible time of it and the footy is back, so will probably take more bets there. Will take a look later. 

 

[The Brigadier]

On 7/29/2021 at 4:39 PM, The Brigadier said:

Day 4 of Glorious Goodwood and the ground continues to dry with Friday’s conditions likely to ride just on the slow side of good. Here are my thoughts for the first 5 races. Other selections for the day can be found on the ‘racing tips’ section of the site. 

Goodwood 150

One of only a handful of races started by flag on the flat, this 2m 4 1/2F handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 and a good starting point is crucial despite the distance. It certainly has a wide open look to it with the first four from last year all back to battle again. Just Hubert was the victor then by a neck from Rochester House with a further 3/4L back to Smart Champion and The Grand Visir who passed the line together. The best of that quartet at today’s revised weights is David Simcock’s Smart Champion who is 5lb better of with the winner and 6lb better off with the other two. Saffie Osborne takes the ride today and is excellent value for her 5lb claim and looks great each way value here. He can pull hard and ideally needs a good pace to chase so he comes with his issues but at the likely odds I’m happy to take a chance here that things fall right for him. Platform Nineteen is a progressive stayer and has claims but he has to race off of his highest ever handicap mark here and has yet to race beyond two miles. 

SMART CHAMPION 1 point each way @ 9/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 123456

 

Goodwood 225

I think we may have a genuine Group 1 horse here racing in a Group 3 with William Haggas’s exciting Baaed who can take this years renewal of the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes run over a mile. It’s hard not to have been impressed with his three wins at Leicester and twice on the Newmarket July course with an impressive 4L victory from the useful Maximal in the listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes. Haggas is taking things slowly with this Sea The Stars full brother to the smart Hukum and although this represents a step up in grade he should see these off with ease. El Drama was punching too high last time when last of 4 in the Eclipse and the biggest danger may well be Sir Mark Todd’s Tasman Bay who chased home Alenquer in the Group 3 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot but this really is all about Baaed and although he will be too skinny to back singly maybe look for a price for him to win by over 2 or 3 lengths.

 

Goodwood 300

This years Unibet Golden Mile Handicap has once again attracted a maximum field of 20 and has to be my favourite big race handicap of the season. The main reason is that the draw is so important. The configuration of the track is such that they hit a sharp right hand bend a furlong after the start and if you’re drawn wide you have to either drop in behind the field or be prepared to lose valuable ground out wide. It really is important to be drawn on the inside (low numbers) and is year in year out a race where I just concentrate on those drawn 1 to 9. The last ten winners have been drawn 1-8-13-5-9-1-3-3-3-2 and there are a trio worth backing here. Firstly Path Of Thunder who is officially 5lb well in carrying just a 3lb penalty for a very easy win at Newmarket last time and has blagged stall 3. William Buick rides for Charlie Appleby and he’s the most likely winner and must be included in any staking plan. Magical  Morning (stall 11) and Maydanny (5) met at Sandown last time with the former coming out on top to the tune of 3/4L but is 6lb worse off with Maydanny who won at the track last season and missed a handicap on the opening day due to the soft ground. He can turn the tables with Magical Morning and run a big race. The other horse I think can be in the shake up is Johan who’s win at Salisbury last time was franked on Tuesday by the 4th that day Migration winning. He’s in stall 2 and though 4lb higher has the assistance of Ryan Moore. They’re my three against the field with my main bet on Path Of Thunder. 

PATH OF THUNDER 3 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

JOHAN 1 point win @ 10/1 Bet365

MAYDANNY 1 point win @ 6/1 Bet365

 

Goodwood 335

This year’s Group 2 Qatar King George Stakes sees Battash going for an unprecedented 5th consecutive victory in the race. He’s 7 years old now and having had a nice first run of the season at Royal Ascot when finishing 4th in the Kings Stand Stakes must have a big chance. At around 11/8 though is he a good as he once was? There’s no sentiment allowed in gambling mind so I’ll take him on today with the improving three year old Dragon Symbol who acts on any ground and could easily still be improving as this is only Archie Watson’s colt’s 8th career run as opposed to Battash’s 25th. He’s finished runner up in the Group 1 contests the Commonwealth Cup (finished first but was demoted for interference) and July Cup already this season and has the assistance once more of Oisin Murphy. He’s dropping back from 6F but is very speedy and that shouldn’t hinder him. He’s officially got 7lb to find with the favourite here but with a combination of him going forward and possibly Battash declining should bring them closer together.  Glass Slippers was runner up to Battash in this last season but we haven’t seen him this season so is overlooked. 

DRAGON SYMBOL 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Goodwood 410

The ground is mighty important in this Group 3 Glorious Stakes as favourite Mogul who is rated 4lb and more better than these doesn’t apparat to like soft ground. He was caught out last time out in the Coronation Cup at Epsom by the late rain and a line can be struck through that run.  He’s a dual group 1 winner last season on good ground and if the ground continues to dry is the one to beat. He’s up against the penalised Euchen Glen who won twice this season at Sandown and the improving Passion And Glory who’s stepping out of handicap company. Pablo Escobar won this last season and is two from three at the track but if the ground reverts close to good ground the selection has to be Aiden O’Briens globe trotting Mogul who may just be too good for these. 

MOGUL (no bet on soft or worse) 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

A break level day - so no damage - Saturdays selections up soon.

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

And Ascot has never been his course. Been turned over 4 times out of 5 there. 

Whereas he loves Goodwood. 4 from 4 going for the 5 timer.

Maybe age is catching up on him, but people were saying that last year when he turned up for this race. Not only did he win, he broke the track record!!

Hmmm I stuck my neck out and said Battash wouldn't be placed I even gave an alternative and reasons, You used retrospection yesterday (isn't hindsight a wonderful thing?) when critiquing my comments about Audarya even after i came on after the race to give my opinion which was quite feasible. Audarya in my opinion did not turn up and or give its true running.  So my retrospective critique or your opinion regards Battash  is, You were wrong about Battash and kept silent when it lost.

[Wanderlust]

Just now, Zilzalian said:

Hmmm I stuck my neck out and said Battash wouldn't be placed I even gave an alternative and reasons, You used retrospection yesterday (isn't hindsight a wonderful thing?) when critiquing my comments about Audarya even after i came on after the race to give my opinion which was quite feasible. Audarya in my opinion did not turn up and or give its true running.  So my retrospective critique or your opinion regards Battash  is, You were wrong about Battash and kept silent when it lost.

Mate, Give it a rest will you.

This is a forum, where everybody has an opinion. Right, wrong or in between. 

Don't make it personal. 

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Hmmm I stuck my neck out and said Battash wouldn't be placed I even gave an alternative and reasons, You used retrospection yesterday (isn't hindsight a wonderful thing?) when critiquing my comments about Audarya even after i came on after the race to give my opinion which was quite feasible. Audarya in my opinion did not turn up and or give its true running.  So my retrospective critique or your opinion regards Battash  is, You were wrong about Battash and kept silent when it lost.

Don't take the bait. He did the same thing with @Barnes1882You only have to read his Georgie Whitbead quote to see that he enjoys winding people up. At least you are trying to find winners for us on the forum and although you do have strong opinions I guess a lot of people wouldn't even get out of bed without them.  Keep writing up here, I appreciate it.  I did take a second look and backed Suesa after you mentioned it.  I really would appreciate it if @Wanderlustwould put some effort into highlighting some winners for us in the future

[Villa Chris]

*Grabs the popcorn