Racing Chat - Friday 9th July

[The Brigadier]

Six terrestrial TV races for racing on Friday and the times looked fast enough at Newmarket on Thursday despite the fact they were kicking the top off. York is officially good to soft so best to look for horses who like to get their toe in at the Yorkshire track..

 

Newmarket 150

A competitive three year old handicap run over 10F. Many of the big Southern stables are represented and it maybe the Newmarket handler William Haggas that takes the spoils with his Pride Of Dubai gelding who made his re-appearance in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot when racing on the seemingly unfavoured far side and coming home best of that group finishing 4th in the race only beaten 2 1/2L. That was a hell of a run and with normal improvement can take a hand in the finish of this open handicap. The dangers are plenty with John & Thady Gosden running two in Peter The Great and Highland Rocker with the former of that pair possibly the biggest danger to my selection. Royal Ascot winner Foxes Tales comes into the equation though has to prove himself on faster ground and is 9lb higher than his win. 

DAUBAI HONOUR 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hills 1/5^th 1234

 

York 205

Cormier has been pulled out twice since winning at Pontefract in May due to the ground being too fast and this Brian Ellison 5 year old looks thrown in on his hurdle form. He will be hard to beat today with conditions to suit. He was runner up in the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May and is currently rated 133 in that sphere. He can race off of 75 today and has the soft ground he obviously needs. His opponents are all much of muchness in my eyes with the best of them possibly Bollin Joan who bounced back to form last time but has to shoulder a 5lb penalty. 

CORMIER 3 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

 

Newmarket 225

Andrew Balding had an excellent Royal Ascot with three winners and one of those Sandrine can follow up here and take this Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes.  She took the Albany Stakes from Hello You with Oscula back in third and the disappointing Flotus way back in 13th. I can’t really see any reason why this daughter of Bobby Kitten won’t confirm the form on much faster ground as an American bred she should be best on a sounder surface. Ralph Beckett’s Hello You has 1 1/2L to make up on the selection and may chase her home. 

SANDRINE 3 points win @ 15/8 Bet365

 

York 2.40

Charlie Fellowes saddles two with chances here in Onassis and Vadream and it’s the latter that catches my eye in the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes run over 6F for fillies and mares only. This three year old drops back to 6F having run an excellent third in the 7F Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot on soft ground last time out behind Creative Force who’s a big fancy for the July Cup on Saturday. Jamie Spencer is in the saddle and looks sure to run a big race. Stable mate Onassis has soft ground form and could give Fellowes a 1-2. 

VADREAM 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

Newmarket 300

A widely competitive 1m 6F Class 2 Heritage Handicap. The Golden Gates Handicap form from Royal Ascot is well represented here by winner Amtiyaz (been raised 4lb) and 3rd and 4th Global Storm ( up 2lb) and Arthurian Fable (up 1b ) and all three have claims. I’m interested in a couple here and will be backing both with my main bet on the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Live Your Dream who stepped up in trip at Wolverhampton over 2 miles last month and cantered home winning by 6 1/2L. He’s been raised 10lb for that victory but he may still be head of the assessor and the fact that his trainer pit him in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup and Group 2 Lonsdale Stakes recently may suggest that his connections feel he’s better than a handicapper. He can be backed each way with firms with enhanced place terms. The second selection is George Boughey’s Lostwithiel who looks over priced. He ran in the 2m 4F handicap at the Royal meeting and blatantly didn’t stay that day but take that run out of his CV and we have a progressive horse who had previously run Global Storm to 1/2L here at the Rowley Mile course and us 4lb better off with Arthurian Fable 2L behind. Global Storm and Arthurian Fable are currently priced at 6/1 and 8/1 whilst Lostwithiel can be backed at 14/1 which looks value. 

LIVE YOUR DREAM 1 ½ points each way @ 15/2 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345

LOSTWITHIEL 1 point each way @ 14/1 paddy Power 1/5^th 12345 

 

Newmarket 335

The Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes is a Group 1 contest for fillies and mares and is run over 1 mile of the July course. A quality field of 13 has declared for this years renewal. Alcohol Free proved she can handle any ground when winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot on heavy from Snow Lantern and Mother Earth who both re-oppose today. That pair have 1 1/2L and a neck to make up although today’s ground will be significantly faster so it may be possible that they could. The older brigade are led by the likes of Indie Angel who may have been flattered by winning the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Ascot as she was given a peach of a ride by Dettori on the fastest part of the track. The filly I like is Ed Walker’s Primo Bacio who missed Ascot due to the soft ground and will love this faster terrain. She was so impressive in a listed race at York in May when she beat Snow Lantern far easier than Alcohol Free did at Ascot, readily scooting clear to win by a comfortable 3L from Creative Flair (winner since). She looked very smart that day and with fast ground likely here in her favour looks the bet. 

PRIMO BACIO 1 ½ points each way @ 6/1 1/5^th 12345

 

[Zilzalian]

Well managed to nab a good placed GG (Sam Maximus)  at 40/1 despite my nap (Dig Two) totally bombing out to come plumb last, too bad to be true.

So we go again with a bunch of not that impressive 2yo's in the Duchess of Cambridge stakes Group 2. 2:25 Newmarket.

1 Hello You                117       11/4

2 Ellade                     116       40/1

3 Sandrine                115       15/8

3 Desert Dreamer     115       12/1

 

Looking at that lot the obvious bet is Ellade @ 40/1. To Win if your man enough or EW if your one of those cautious sensible types. (Well hard men go for the whopping Forecast)

managed to get the fc and tc there pity i couldn't get the big price in but it was exciting for a while

Edited July 9, 2021 by Zilzalian
update