Racing Chat - Monday 5th July

[Darran]

The 5.15 at Worcester is a fairly weak contest and wide open because of it and there are a few you could give a chance to on bits and pieces of form. I think though Rossderrin is worth a small e/w bet on. There are two main reasons why I think he could land a race off a mark of 90. First of all his owner and former trainer isn't riding him today which is a plus to chances. The other one is his 2nd to Dressedforsuccess back in April which clearly looks useful now. He finally landed a Restricted 4 starts later at Hexham. That effort probably equates to around this sort of mark so I don't think he has a load in hand, but the jockey claims 7lbs and you can add in a few pounds for the fact his owner isn't on top. He ran OK at Hexham a month ago and he could easily hit the frame.

Rossderrin e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 (others are shorter and going 5 places and Skybet are going 6 places)

NB currently 11/1 with Bet365 and others are going 4 or 5 places now with the NR

[roger2256]

July +15

1pt level stakes win only 

17.15 Wor Stephanie Sunshine 5/1

17.50 Wor Get an Oscar 4/1

19.00 Rip  Willa 8/1

Prices as of now b365 

 

 

[cannotbebeat]

1.35 Ayr Oriental Lily 4/1

4.25 Ayr Be Proud 11/5

2.55 Worcester First Street 10/11

6.30 Ripon Little Miss Dynamo 10/1 small bet

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

3.30 Worc Ultimate Getaway 13/8

7.15 Win Clarendon House 6/5

8.00 Rip Ridgeway 2/1

One £1.50 win Trixie = £6.00 = Poss return of £56.35

Singles:

3.20 Ayr Music Society £2 win at 4.6 £7.06 p if wins.  Tipped by the Big 4=3; Loads of money for Kraken Power and good money for Black Friday

7.15 Win Caroline Dale £1 win at 13/2 (Trixie Insurance bet; was 10/1 last night)

3.30 Worc Zuba (Trixie ins bet, £1 win at 4/1)

4.05 Worc Flighty Bride £2 win at 4.8 = £7.45 profit if it wins (Timeform top rated)

4.40 Worc Solstalla £1 win at 8/1 (top Timeform rated.  Big drifter from 10/3 last night.  Price has been smashed on Mix Of Clover 9/4/11/4 last night and is now at a best price of even money

Total stakes today are £13.00

 

 

[azzybear]

mo Henry 2.10 fraternal 2.20 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Windsor 8.15

HOLLYWOOD PARK 11/8

 

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

3.30 Worc Ultimate Getaway 13/8

7.15 Win Clarendon House 6/5

8.00 Rip Ridgeway 2/1

One £1.50 win Trixie = £6.00 = Poss return of £56.35

Singles:

3.20 Ayr Music Society £2 win at 4.6 £7.06 p if wins.  Tipped by the Big 4=3; Loads of money for Kraken Power and good money for Black Friday

7.15 Win Caroline Dale £1 win at 13/2 (Trixie Insurance bet; was 10/1 last night)

3.30 Worc Zuba (Trixie ins bet, £1 win at 4/1)

4.05 Worc Flighty Bride £2 win at 4.8 = £7.45 profit if it wins (Timeform top rated)

4.40 Worc Solstalla £1 win at 8/1 (top Timeform rated.  Big drifter from 10/3 last night.  Price has been smashed on Mix Of Clover 9/4/11/4 last night and is now at a best price of even money

Total stakes today are £13.00

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Some lousy performances by my Trixie selections.  However, Solstalla won for me despite being a big drifter in the market.  I was also a bit unlucky with Caroline Dale being beaten a head at 12/1.  The interesting thing about this one was that the horse was showing as at around 10/1 at 10pm last night and it shortened this morning into between 11/2 and 13/2 (my price taken).  This made me think that it was a good bet and why I put money on it.  Obviously, it drifted again later on to become 12/1 at SP.  Hence, whatever money was put on it this morning was counteracted by traded prices later on.  This of course makes it difficult to predict whether a horse shortening in the market means something or it doesn't.  Possibly the connections got on this morning which meant that the price shortened and later on the big boys thought it was a blip and did not have much of a chance.  Fascinating stuff!!

My sole winner meant that I lost £4.00 on the day.  My new balance is £751.32 (Bank £1056.22)

A class 1 & Class 2 race at Pontefract tomorrow.  Five Class 4 races at Uttoxeter with two races where the favourite is odds on and one race where the favourite is 5/4.  Not a lot to choose from but I will stick with the plan.

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by The Equaliser