Guineas Observations

[Zilzalian]

A horse that has been beaten 5 times out of six races is fav for the 2000 Guineas. How bad would that be for a classic?

Anyways i have done the speed figures for both Guineas If anyone needs a pointer..

2000g

1 Mujasaabeq

2 One Ruler

1000g

1 Alcohol free

2 Saffron Beach. 

Anyone wanting an outsider to play with, Star of Emaraaty comes out 3rd best in the 1000g, 66/1 at the moment
3rd in the 200g is anyone of 4 so wont bother listing them.

[calva decoy]

19/19 Top 3 LTO 

17/19 Have win over 7f 

17/19 Had won a Group race 

15/19 Drawn in stall 12 or lower 

15/19 Won LTO 

14/19 Having first run of the season .

My 3 

WEMBLEY 5/1 Unibet ( with boost )

THUNDER MOON 11/2 ew betvictor 4 places 

ONE RULER 17/2 ew betvictor 4 places .

[Trotter]

I agree about Wembley being beaten 5 times ..... I couldn't back a horse for a classic that's only won one of his six races. He has finished 2nd in two group one races and on paper appears to be about the same level as Thunder Moon 

From the group one two year old form I'd prefer Thunder Moon

The other one at the head of the market is Mutasaabeq ....... he's the typicla lightly raced 'could be anything' type, two runs, two wins, slaughtered the field in a conditions race at the Craven meeting. Big step up in class but he looked might impressive. If he does win today we could have a superstar on our hands 

I picked out a couple of EW shots last night and they've had contrasting fortunes in the market overnight

Chindit has drifted out to 16/1 from 12/1 ......... Hannon's horse. He won the Greenham and the Hannon's usually send their best horse to that trial. I suppose the worry is that the Hannon's have slipped down the pecking order and you wonder it's still the case that they're playing at the top table ...... is their best horse any good ?

Poetic Flare has been backed from 20/1 last night to 14/1 now....... my angle on this one is that Jim Bolger only tends to send horses over to England if he thinks they can win ..... he's much more selective than the O'Briens

I guess the usual trend will continue ...... after the race everyone will say 'what a poor Guineas' but by the end of the season the horses that finish near the front will have established themselves as the best Milers and it's quite likely the Derby winner will be in there somewhere !

Looking at the best odds and plumping for a couple I'll have 

Win - Mutasaabeq 5/1Corals - in the hope that he's a superstar
EW - Poetic Flare 14/1 Corals - putting my faith in Bolger

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

I agree about Wembley being beaten 5 times ..... I couldn't back a horse for a classic that's only won one of his six races. He has finished 2nd in two group one races and on paper appears to be about the same level as Thunder Moon 

From the group one two year old form I'd prefer Thunder Moon

The other one at the head of the market is Mutasaabeq ....... he's the typicla lightly raced 'could be anything' type, two runs, two wins, slaughtered the field in a conditions race at the Craven meeting. Big step up in class but he looked might impressive. If he does win today we could have a superstar on our hands 

I picked out a couple of EW shots last night and they've had contrasting fortunes in the market overnight

Chindit has drifted out to 16/1 from 12/1 ......... Hannon's horse. He won the Greenham and the Hannon's usually send their best horse to that trial. I suppose the worry is that the Hannon's have slipped down the pecking order and you wonder it's still the case that they're playing at the top table ...... is their best horse any good ?

Poetic Flare has been backed from 20/1 last night to 14/1 now....... my angle on this one is that Jim Bolger only tends to send horses over to England if he thinks they can win ..... he's much more selective than the O'Briens

I guess the usual trend will continue ...... after the race everyone will say 'what a poor Guineas' but by the end of the season the horses that finish near the front will have established themselves as the best Milers and it's quite likely the Derby winner will be in there somewhere !

Looking at the best odds and plumping for a couple I'll have 

Win - Mutasaabeq 5/1Corals - in the hope that he's a superstar
EW - Poetic Flare 14/1 Corals - putting my faith in Bolger

we are of a very similar opinion cant fault anything you said here the bolger horse is very good option as he is 1 point behind mutasabeq along with two others and he (bolger) does know the time of day, chindit is an ew for me if it goes out to 20's

[yossa6133]

Wembley the obvious one, almost won last time from an unpromising position. The better ground and step up in trip in his favour, can't really see why Thunder Moon should be a shorter price based on that run.

[Trotter]

6 hours ago, Trotter said:

Poetic Flare has been backed from 20/1 last night to 14/1 now....... my angle on this one is that Jim Bolger only tends to send horses over to England if he thinks they can win ..... he's much more selective than the O'Briens

IWin - Mutasaabeq 5/1Corals - in the hope that he's a superstar
EW - Poetic Flare 14/1 Corals - putting my faith in Bolger

Poetic Flare wins at 16/1 ......... ?