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The Welsh Open gets started on Monday. It starts early on Monday, with games beginning at 10am and it's a big tournament and so I'm going to get my preview and tips up early. As usual, I'm going to take one main pick from the top and one from the bottom and then throw in a few outsider fancies.

In the top half, I'm going to take a chance with Ding. I think it's quite open at the top half. Murphy will be defending the title and has a chance to go deep but I feel like he doesn't practice enough, based on some of his performances in and amongst the balls and relies on his long potting. As a big outsider price, I'll take Milkins.

The bottom half looks a much harder half to win. I like Mark Allen in this half. He looked good in and amongst the balls with his new cue, at the Shootout. He doesn't like that event and so we can write off anything negative there. I also like the look of Ali Carter, who I've just backed to get out of the Championship League group and he has indeed won that group. He came top of the group prior to that too and has only really lost to Ronnie and McGill in the last 12 matches in that event.

I'm going to give Yuelong one more chance. Purely based on his huge price for a player with such quality.

2pts M. Allen to win Welsh Open 16/1 betvictor
1.5pts E/W D.Junhui to win Welsh Open 20/1 betvictor
1pt E/W Z.Yuelong to win Welsh Open 80/1 willhill
1pt E/W A.Carter to win Welsh Open 100/1 bet365
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0.5pts E/W R.Milkins to win Welsh Open 300/1 boylesports

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rather annoyingly, I had a good couple to go with yesterday but I've had some power outages in the mornings around here. Couple I'm going with today :

McManus and Pengfei have always had close matches. Craigie had some decent form and takes on Un-Nooh. Un-Nooh's form is quite patchy and he went into the Shootout bang out of form. He had only his second cue and is getting used to it and so I think Craigie is value there. 

2.5pts A.McManus to beat T.Pengfei 11/10 paddypower
4pts S.Craigie to beat T.Un-Nooh 11/8 paddypower
1pt accy - O.Lines / McManus / Craigie / Milkins 28.5/1 paddypower (money back if one leg loses)

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14 minutes ago, charliepie said:

Let's remember this moment as proof that things don't always go against us despite our countless bad luck stories:-) even Carter managed to win when it looked like he should have lost. And Craigie was 3-0 down.

haha, yeah, I did think that when Craigie come back. It's nice to have some luck go the other way. Not sure Carter "should have lost though" he battled well and got in and won the last frame in practically one go.

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With the completion of the 1st round tonight, we're onto round 2 tomorrow. There are a couple that I will be going with tomorrow.

Guodong looks to be a good choice, against the out-of-form Gary Wilson. Guodong had a great week, last week. He has reached the Last 16 of the UK Championship already this year. Jamie Jones looks a goof price against Mark King, who got a bye, thanks to Robertson withdrawing. Jones beat Sijun in round 1. 4-1. Finally, I'll go with Joe O'Connor against Higginson. O'Connor looked very impressive in round 1. 

2.75pts X.Guodong to beat G.Wilson 10/11 bet365
2.75pts JJones to beat M.King 8/11 bet365
2.75pts J.O'Connor to beat A.Higginson 8/11 bet365
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1pt accy - Guodong / Jamie Jones / O'Connor / Doherty 12.5/1 paddypower (money back if one leg loses)

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Always a big day on the Thursday as we go from 32 players, down to just 8. The players will have to play two rounds today. One in the morning and the victors will have to play again in the evening. Here's my fancies for the morning.

McGill seems to back to playing some nice stuff. He had a good Championship League group, where he reached the final and was one frame away from winning the group until Ali Carter came back and won it. He has continued that form here. Ursenbacher, the little s**t who beat Milkins from 2-0 down, goes up against Jordan Brown today. If Ursenbacher can reproduce that kind of form, he should win this one.

Yuelong takes on Gilbert at 1pm. Both players have won both matches 4-0. Gilbert looks to have changed his form around abit recently and he was one I was tempted to back in his quarter, but chose to go with Yuelong. I like Yuelong here.

2.5pts A.McGill to beat B.Hawkins 13/10 willhill
2.75pts A.Ursenbacher to beat J.Brown 10/11 willhill
2.5pts Z.Yuelong to beat D.Gilbert evens bet365
1pt accy - McGill / Ursenbacher / Yuelong / Junxu all to win 14/1 paddypower (money back if one leg loses)

 

 

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Ursenbacher mocks me by not only beating my guy 4-3 (from 3-1 down) but he also goes 3-1 up and loses 4-3 when I back him. Classic.  Yuelong wins for a small loss for the day. Allen, Yuelong and Carter through but Yuelong has Ronnie (who looks like winning every match 4-0) and Allen plays Carter (from which the winner plays Ronnie :( ) 

Welsh Open +33.75pts

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5 minutes ago, charliepie said:

Ronnie may throw in a bad one, could be tonight...at least Carter still going strong for you! 

Yeah, I'm hoping Ronnie gets bored, having to play again in an hour or so. Carter would need to beat Ronnie to win the quarter. 

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I'm going to take Tom Ford to beat Williams today. I noticed with Williams that he has having alot of issues with the tip on the cue. He is also going for alot more than he normally would, such as doubles etc and I think Ford's price is too big. I'll also take a stab at an accy

4pts T.Ford to beat M.Williams
1pt accy - Murphy / O'Sullivan -2.5 / Selby -1.5 / Ford 10/1 paddypower (money back if one leg loses)

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22 hours ago, charliepie said:

Haha, 1000/1 shot on Betvictor reaches the final - well done to Jordie Brown!

crazy. Had a nice draw until he had Selby. That was a great result for him. He would have fallen off tour and now he's in he Players Championship. Not to mention he's 3-1 up in the final. :\ 

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