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Racing Chat, Sunday 3rd January


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22 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

210 southwell fantasy keeper 10-1 bet365 started fav but placed.

245 southwell phantasmal 7-1 bet365 in on odds but unplaced.

315 southwell atrafan 4-1 any offering early bog. Non runner.

Will also be putting doubles and trebles on and taking above prices today.

Update non runner. Others moved in on price which is usually a good sign of value but no cigar today.

Edited by Wildgarden
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Looked at 9 non-handicap races today.  Lots of odds on shots, some not worthy imo

Had  small interest in Tonyx 12.27 Catt £2 win at 6.4 - £10.58 profit if it wins.  Gets almost a stone in weight from Bareback Jack who should be very hard to beat.  Tonyx was a smart runner on the flat so a small wager looks to be reasonable

Having looked at the rest of the races, I feel, on balance that Diomedes Des Mottes is the best bet of the day in the 1.30 Catt.  It is trading at around 6/4 atm.  Only 3 runners.  There are some doubts about the stamina of Thomas Macdonag and whilst improvement may come from Eva's Oskar I will stick with the Skelton horse for my money.  I have just secured £7 at 2.64 on Betfair betting exchange = £11.25 profit if it wins so almost a £1 better off over the 6/4 price.

Good luck to all the die-hards having a bet today

==============================================================

The above didn't work out so trying my luck in the classifieds at Southwell

3.15 Zahirah £2 win at 6.2 = poss return of £10.19
3.15 Pearl Spectre  £1.30 win at 17/2 poss return £12.35

3.45 Drew Breeze £2 win at 6.2 u/m (5.9) poss return of £10.19

Total stakes today £14.30

 

=====================================================================================================

A bit of a disappointing day with my Nap selection pulling up.  The explanation given for the horse's poor performance was abysmal (all he/she said was that the gelding weakened quickly going out on to the final circuit).  At least drew Breeze got matched at 6.4 and won so a small loss of £2.11 on the day.  the balance is now £549.38 (£500 bank) so all is OK.

Seven races to look at tomorrow so hopefully I will find a decent opportunity to have a bet

 

   

Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
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All prices Bet365:

Done a treble on these:

12.18 Plumpton - Iron Mike @ 13/8

1.05 Southwell - Turquoise Kingdom @ 4/6

3.07 Catterick - Sigurd @ 6/4

And each-way bets on these:

12.27 Catterick - 1pt e/w Kildimo @ 22/1

12.57 Catterick - 1pt e/w Thirsty Farmer @ 11/1

1.53 Plumpton - 1pt e/w Norley @ 10/1

2.25 Plumpton - 1pt e/w Sackett @ 33/1

2.35 Catterick - 1pt e/w Do Wanna Know @ 20/1

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Another good race today to take advantage of the BOYLESPORTS free bet if 2nd to favourite offer.

In the 1.05 at Southwell the 1st 2 in the betting are 8/11 and 6/4 with the rest at 16/1 or above.

I calculate the chance of the 2nd favourite (MOONBOOTZ) winning is 34% and the chance if it being 2nd to the favourite at 37%. The edge on the bet is 15%.

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11 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

A few outsiders 

12.35 Southwell thawry 12/1 3 places e w e 

2.10 Southwell hammer gun 12/1

2.25 plumpton goodnight charlie 20/1

2.45 Southwell qaaraat 12/1 5 places e w e 

50p e/w single bet365 

1 place last race beat on line ?

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