Racing Chat- Saturday December 26th

[The Brigadier]

Kempton on Boxing Day – a Christmas tradition though it’s sure to be different this year with no crowds there though the racing looks top class and here’s my thoughts on the meeting.

Firstly the ground and although it was updated to good to soft (soft in places) on Wednesday afternoon I can see it riding slower than that and for my preview I’m looking at soft ground.

 

12.40 2m novice hurdle 

Favourite here is likely to be Dan Skelton’s Third Time Lucki who surely gave the winner at Cheltenham too much rope out in front last time. He’s better than that but the negatives against him are the fact that he has to shoulder a double 8lb penalty and he may not be best suited by very soft ground. At around 6/4 I can leave him for sure. Paul Nicholl’s Flic Ou Voyou may also not be suited by very soft ground and has the 8lb penalty to carry. Severance was 20 lengths behind Flic Ou Voyou and the interesting well related Go Sacre Go is likely to be a drifter. The one I’m with here is the Alan King trained 6 year old On To Victory who although not setting the world alight in his first season over hurdles did appear to improve on the flat since and actually ended up winning the November Handicap at Doncaster and finished the season rated a lofty 105 in that sphere. His best form has come with plenty of cut in it and getting weight from the two aforementioned penalised runners will do for me. 

ON TO VICTORY 1 point win @  4/1 Bet365

 

1.15 Novices’ handicap chase 

Dan Skelton could be in for a big day and his Alnadam has a very big chance here following a comprehensive victory at Sandown 3 weeks ago. He’s been shunted up 8lb by the handicapper for that but is a player here. Nicky Henderson saddles two and this is a meeting he does particularly well at over the years. I prefer fencing newcomer Son Of Camas over Falco Blitz. He has always been highly thought of by Nicky and his team at Seven Barrows and by all accounts jumps very well. His mark of 132 looks workable and although the excuse from the trainer on his disappointing run at Cheltenham was the ground was too soft I’m prepared to give him another chance. Here’s what Nicky had to say about him in a recent Racing Post trainer file (before his Cheltenham flop incidentally) “We're fond of him and he's a big future over fences - he could be top class. He's had a wind operation over the summer and could improve for time and going two and a half miles. 

The other one I like here is top weight Hold The Note whose trainer Mick Channon has a very good record in the race winning it with Glen Forsa in 2018 and also runner up in 2017 with Mister Whittaker and in 2014 with Knock House. He blatantly didn’t stay over 3 1 1/2f at Cheltenham last time and kindly the handicapper has dropped him 3lb which means he’s eligible for this race. He’s now 5lb lower than when 3^rd in last season’s Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival to Imperial Aura and Galvin – two smart chasers. I’ll take the pair against the field. 

SON OF CAMAS 1 point each way @ 10/1 Coral 1/5 odds 1-2-3

HOLD THAT NOTE 1 point each way @ 9/1 Coral 1/5 odds 1-2-3

 

1.50 3m Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 

Shan Blue has been very impressive when winning both his chases this season at Wetherby notably last time when hammering Snow Leopardess into 2^nd with that one going on to win a decent Haydock handicap. It’ll take a very smart one to beat him today. The Big Breakaway was very disappointing last time and although the trip was surely to blame he did hit a flat spot on his chasing debut at Cheltenham where you could argue that Gumball wasn’t done with when crashing out two from home. If The Cap Fits is the best in on official ratings and has claims but it’s got to be the Skelton horse for me. 

SHAN BLUE 2 points win @ 2/1 Coral

 

2.25 2m Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) 

Epatante first the rest nowhere! That’s how I see this race. Nicky Henderson’s very smart hurdler has never really been given the recognition she deserves despite winning last season’s Champion Hurdle but she looked very smart when winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on her re-appearance and already holds both Silver Streak and Ballyandy on last year’s running on identical ground. She’s only ever been beaten twice in her career, on her debut and when flopping in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham when something was obviously amiss. Dirgo Du Charmil is not good enough and if you do want a bet in the race it may well be the favourite to beat her stable mate Floressa who although with a bit to find on ratings is an improving mare.

 

EPATANTE to beat FLORESSA 1 point straight forecast

 

3.00 3m Ladbrokes King George V1 Chase 

An excellent renewal featuring nine top chasers. Paul Nicholl’s saddles 4 of the 9 with joint favourites at the time of writing Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname. The former has won this event the last two years and must go close although he did have a gruelling race in the mud at Haydock when losing the battle with course specialist Bristol De Mai 35 days ago. Last season he had had a 54 day break since his prep run at Down Royal and the previous season backed up after a 32 day break when 4^th in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. His stable companion Cyrname possibly lost his race here last season when having a hard race in beating Altior at Ascot just 33 days prior to lining up here but this season he’s back after a 56 day break following a very visually impressive win of the Charlie Hall at Wetherby over 3m on soft ground putting to bed the theory that he doesn’t truly stay 3m once and for all. It’s a tight call between them with the trainer himself even in print saying he can’t split them. I did enjoy assistant trainer Harry Derham’s views on the excellent Nick Luck podcast the other day mind as he sounded very much in the Cyrname camp and he’s my pick here. Of the others if it did turn into a real slog then Santini, runner up in last season’s Gold Cup, would very much come into it. There are however stamina doubts over Saint Calvados and Waiting Patiently. Lostintranslation pulled up in this last season and ran no sort of race in the Betfair Chase behind Cyrname last time. I find it hard to fancy him. Real Steel and Frodon are the other two Nicholl’s runners but wouldn’t be for me.  

CYRNAME (pictured below) 2 points win @ 11/4 Paddy Power

 

3.35 2m 5f handicap hurdle 

Biggest field of the day with 17 declared and a wide open look about it. Nicky Henderson has three entered and its Barbados Blue that catches my eye in her first handicap off of only 119. She’s been off for 593 day but by all accounts is a big mare who’s working well and will enjoy the soft surface. She’s high on my shortlist. This is what Henderson said about her 6 weeks ago “A first-time-out bumper winner, she scored comfortably at Kempton in May last year but came back with a leg problem. She was going nicely in the spring, has size and scope and jumps pleasingly. With no miles on the clock, she's exciting” .Ecco is another I like here, she can race off of the same mark as when awarded the race at Doncaster from Glynn 15 days ago (previously 3^rd to Buzz at Ascot which looks good form). Dan Skelton’s Riggs who was so impressive at Uttoxeter last time though has been raised 9lb for that is another that can go well. 

BARBADOS BLUE 1 point each way @ 13/2 Bet365 ¼ odds 1-2-3-4 

 

[Villa Chris]

Cheers for the write ups. Much appreciated. I rated a couple of races up yesterday whilst I had time, and going to do a few now whilst the kids are still in bed. What a fascinating King George. It’s not usually the strongest of big races imo, and I honestly think it’s a two horse race, but I can’t split Clan and Cyrname. Regarding betting on the race I could quite easily give it a miss and enjoy the spectacle, but I’ll see who drifts and then put them in a treble with Epatante and Shan Blue. I think Clan is the one to beat , but the way Cyrname made easy work of that lot at wetherby lto was pretty impressive, and there was loads left in the tank. I also thought clan ran a blinder in the Betfair chase. He usually needs his first run but he was bang there with Bristol De Mai, on ground that probably doesn’t suit . I got him at 11/2 last year in this, which looking back now was a crazy price, as this race is basically he’s gold cup.