The Brigadier Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I will be doing a full preview of this race over the next two days when the 5 day declarations are made Monday lunchtime but there's a horse I like in the race whom I think is currently overpriced and worth backing now as I can only see his price shorten. The horse in question is the Harry Fry trained Lightly Squeeze. A three time winner last season in the mud (Ascot's ground is currently soft with a wet forecast) he re-appeared in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las back in October when running well to the last before cutting out (through lack of fitness or his wind cutting out which I'll get to later) eventually trailing in 7th place beaten some 19l by the winner Sceau Royal who's gone on finish placed in both the Fighting Fifth (to Champion Hurdle favourite Epatante) and Saturday's International Hurdle. In second place that day was Ballyandy who's been placed in the Greatwood Hurdle and International Hurdle since, 3rd was Buzz who bolted up in a Ascot handicap Hurdle and is currently 5/1 favourite for this race but has been re-assessed and Lightly Squeeze can re-oppose on 15lb better terms for 16 lengths but is four times the price. The 5th, 6th and even 8th Ecco have all won since and it is the best piece of handicap hurdle form seen this NH season. In a recent stable file in the Racing Post trainer Fry said that Lightly Squeeze had undergone a soft palate operation since Ffos Las which surely can only enhance his chances. I'm not privy to know whether he will stand his ground but seem no reason why he won't and advise an each way bet before he's cut in price. It is a highly competitive handicap with the right favourite in Buzz but on the revised terms Lightly Squeeze looks way overpriced. LIGHTLY SQUEEZE 1 point each way 20/1 Ladbrokes or Corals yossa6133, Nigwilliam and Villa Chris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 (edited) Seems to have come in with most firms but I just got some 20/1 ew with Coral. Actually think I got the last of the 20/1, 14's now ? Edited December 14, 2020 by yossa6133 The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 (edited) Malaya 21.7 Kid Commando 20.6 Master Debonair 20.5 Buzz 20.4 The top 3 rated are good prices, but I’ll just stick with Malaya(14/1). Will hold fire just in case the horse doesn’t make final declarations. Edited December 14, 2020 by Villa Chris richard-westwood and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 The ground for this weekend’s big Ascot two day fixture looks like been very testing with the ground already soft and several bands of rain crossing the region during the week. Saturday’s big Handicap Hurdle is the Betfair Exchange Trophy run over just short of 2m of the Berkshire course. The weights are headed by the ante-post favourite Buzz of Nicky Henderson’s who was super impressive at the track 29 days ago when sprinting away from Rosie And Millie for an easy 7 length success. He’s been hit hard by the handicapper though with a 11lb rise – taking him up to 148. If he was to win this he would be bordering on Champion Hurdle class. Henderson has also left in the novice of JP McManus’s Time Flies By who looks interesting off of 129 though his recent course second to Danny Kirwan was hardly upheld at the weekend. Its hard to fancy Colin Tizzard’s Master Debonair on his well beaten last on his re-appearance at Wincanton and with the yard very much hit and miss at the moment though he is 2 from 2 at the track on soft/heavy ground. Botox Has is one of five 4 year old’s in the race though his mark of 146 looks high enough to me. Paul Nicholl’s has declared three with Miranda raised a hefty 7lb for her win at Ludlow under Angus Cheleda claiming 7lb who surely will keep the ride. Sir Psycho won’t mind conditions but has already been put in his place in two good handicap hurdles this season. Malaya is the final Nicholl’s runner and she was not disgraced at the track on her re-appearance. Anthony Honeyball’s Kid Commando impressed when winning over course and distance in October and may have not seen out the extra 3f at Haydock since although that was a disappointing effort. Alan King has two entered Harambe who was not done with when crashing out at the last in the Greatwood Hurdle and has been dropped 1lb by the handicapper since. That’s twice now that’s he’s come down at the last and if you back him it will be heart in mouth time at the last! He should be on your short list. King’s other runner is bottom weight Isolate, the comfortable winner of two novice hurdles already this term. He’s hard to assess but is most certainly an improver. Not So Sleepy made all to win this event on heavy ground quite comfortably last season making it two from two over this course and distance over hurdles. He’s 15lb higher now and we all know how he’s going to run- from the front and play catch me if you can. Even off of his new mark he can be thereabouts. Dan Skelton has two entered, whilst its hard to fancy outsider West To The Bridge who’s dropping dramatically in trip a big case can be made for Third Time Lucki, a decent novice who ran 5th in last year’s Cheltenham Champion Bumper and has won two of his three novice hurdles this season before a credible 2nd spot in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham where the winner got first run on the whole field. After Irish trainer Mick Winters routed the fields in last Saturday’s big race the only Irish entry Belfast Banter has to be given respect. Trained by Peter Fahey he creeps in with a nice weight of 10-7 and is making his handicap debut. He should not be dismissed lightly. Jonjo O’Neil’s Arrivederci has been put up 2lb for falling three from home at Haydock which seems a bit harsh. Whilst Philip Hobb’s Oakley also seems high enough in the handicap. Benson is a very interesting runner. Very well backed when winning on heavy ground at the last meeting but he too like Buzz has been hit with a hefty 10lb rise in the handicap David Pipes Night Edition hasn’t been seen since finishing runner up in the Fred Winter at the Festival in March but if fit is yet another possible. Cormier has been dropped 3lb for his 7th in the Greatwood but probably isn’t quite good enough likewise Ballinsker who finished one place ahead in the Cheltenham race. Milkwood has some decent handicap form this season although I’m not sure whether a slog in the mud is what he wants. I’ve talked up Lightly Squeeze in my previous piece and think he’ll run a big race. Summary:- A wide open and competitive handicap with chances given to many. Don’t forget that a maximum field will be likely and many firms will be paying more places come 48 hour declaration stage so I don’t feel there’s any more value than sitting with our Lightly Squeeze 20-1 bet. My short list consists of Light Squeeze, Harambe & Belfast Banter. LIGHTLY SQUEEZE (below)1 point each way @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes or Corals) (advised 13/12/20) MCLARKE, Villa Chris and yossa6133 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ratings are just coming off Milkwood 345 + Malaya 342 Benson 341 ++ These 3 are a few points ahead of the rest so I'll be concentrating on these 3 Benson is an interesting runner ....very much on the upgrade ...he won very easily last time with the first 2 home 6 lengths clear of the next horse ....2nd horse recorded an rpr of 139 off 10st1 and benson beat him easily off 10st 6 so arguably is rated around the 145 level and will race off 137 with his 10lb penalty so still looks very well hccapped.... Milkwood is another horse on the upgrade ....he was running very strongly last time before being very hampered and did really well to get back into the race and finish 3rd ....that was a very good performance given the circumstances and shows hes a tough horse Malaya represents Nicholls so always warrants respect in big races like this ....ran a good race last time and raised 1 lb ....arguably thexweakest of the 3 but still very much ew material.... I will study further before deciding on final bets but a very interesting a d competitive race Villa Chris and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Master Debonair usually comes on for a run , so I really like his chances. No 8 year old has ever won this race and no horse has won it back to back, so Not So Sleepy needs to break those trends. I also think he’s a bit high in the handicap, but will probably give a good run from the front . richard-westwood and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 (edited) At this early stage i like the look of the Alan King horse HARAMBE 25/1 & Irish raider BELFAST BANTER 16/1 but will wait to nearer the time things could change! Edited December 15, 2020 by Tedthewolf richard-westwood and The Brigadier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 10:37 PM, richard-westwood said: Ratings are just coming off Milkwood 345 + Malaya 342 Benson 341 ++ These 3 are a few points ahead of the rest so I'll be concentrating on these 3 Benson is an interesting runner ....very much on the upgrade ...he won very easily last time with the first 2 home 6 lengths clear of the next horse ....2nd horse recorded an rpr of 139 off 10st1 and benson beat him easily off 10st 6 so arguably is rated around the 145 level and will race off 137 with his 10lb penalty so still looks very well hccapped.... Milkwood is another horse on the upgrade ....he was running very strongly last time before being very hampered and did really well to get back into the race and finish 3rd ....that was a very good performance given the circumstances and shows hes a tough horse Malaya represents Nicholls so always warrants respect in big races like this ....ran a good race last time and raised 1 lb ....arguably thexweakest of the 3 but still very much ew material.... I will study further before deciding on final bets but a very interesting a d competitive race I'm at work long days til next week but I'll rate as many races as I can and stick them in here as theres quite a few classy races this weekend ...starting with this one I'm going to stick with.. milkwood and benson as both are improving types and both still look nicely hccapped... Benson 10pts ew 8/1 sky 5 places Milkwood 10pts ew 8/1 sky5 places Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Silver cup ascot The conditional 312 Espoir de guye 310 These 2 are quite a bit clear so I'll play The conditional 10pts win 6/1 paddyp Espoir de guye 10pt win 8/1 paddyp Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Silver cup ascot The conditional 312 Espoir de guye 310 These 2 are quite a bit clear so I'll play The conditional 10pts win 6/1 paddyp Espoir de guye 10pt win 8/1 paddyp You’ve got a cracking chance there with The Conditional. The drop back in trip slightly may do the trick. For what’s it worth I’ve got .... Regal Encore 28.2 Beware The Bear 25.3 We know Regal Encore loves it here and is still capable , but granted he may be vulnerable to younger legs. He’s got his optimum ground and trip so we’ll see. Beware The Bear is a bit high in the handicap, and not sure if he can win off current mark, so I’ll just play Regal Encore who’s currently 8/1. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think Itchy Feet has got a big chance. Drop in class and up in trip. I noticed in his last race he stayed on well, so I’d hold no fears of him staying this further distance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: You’ve got a cracking chance there with The Conditional. The drop back in trip slightly may do the trick. For what’s it worth I’ve got .... Regal Encore 28.2 Beware The Bear 25.3 We know Regal Encore loves it here and is still capable , but granted he may be vulnerable to younger legs. He’s got his optimum ground and trip so we’ll see. Beware The Bear is a bit high in the handicap, and not sure if he can win off current mark, so I’ll just play Regal Encore who’s currently 8/1. Regal is one of those horses that just pops up when you least expect it so you can never rule him out and I think the grounds gonna be on the heavy side at both courses so that will certainly play a part Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I’ve taken 10/1 on Malaya. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 22 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I'm at work long days til next week but I'll rate as many races as I can and stick them in here as theres quite a few classy races this weekend ...starting with this one I'm going to stick with.. milkwood and benson as both are improving types and both still look nicely hccapped... Benson 10pts ew 8/1 sky 5 places Milkwood 10pts ew 8/1 sky5 places Milkwood doesn’t run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 The trends aren't particularly strong for this race. 5 out of 22 winners have had odds between 8/1 and 10/1. This reduces the field to 4. Nothing else really stands out so I'll go with the Henderson horse TIME FLIES BY at 9/1. The Brigadier and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 With the going almost certainly going to be heavy tomorrow, Master Debonair enters the equation and is now top rated. Multi CD winner and won well on heavy at the course this time last year. On a mark of 147 but has a 7Ibs claimer on board. Hopefully comes on for his previous run which wasn’t great. Master Debonair 25/1 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Great tip Brigadier, ran an absolute cracker! Credit the winner who kept finding. The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted December 20, 2020 Author Share Posted December 20, 2020 17 hours ago, yossa6133 said: Great tip Brigadier, ran an absolute cracker! Credit the winner who kept finding. Thanks Yossa, couldn't believe the on course drift tbh. Ran a blinder though and in a way glad he got pipped for second by Buzz on the run in. yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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