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Road to 2021 ; No Pressure !!

Heisenberg68

By Heisenberg68
in Glory Hunters

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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16 hours ago, Heisenberg68 said:

I will follow Junxu for another match in a row. Junxu led with 3-0 against Maguire and I thought it is over but Junxu fought back to win and moreover scored a century break. Ning is also in fine form but the overall potential of Junxu us bigger and here Junxu should be a favorite, so on those odds I back Junxu to win.

Bet 14 / Snooker ??

Lu Ning v Pang Junxu
Match Odds

❌❌❌ Bet 14 Result : Ning 6-2 -40,00$
? Loss to date : 154,47$

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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4 hours ago, Heisenberg68 said:

We are going to go with the Indians in this match. They have a very good batting lineup and are coming into this match with a lot of T20 cricket behind them. The absence of David Warner and Pat Cummins makes Australia a lot more beatable than otherwise. Also, Mitchell Starc has been very ineffective in the matches he has played, which is another big headache for the home team.

 

Bet 15 / Cricket ??

Australia v India - 1st T20
Match Odds


✅✅✅ Bet 15 Result : India 161/7 : 150/7 +33,06$
? Loss to date : 121,41$

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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I took this bet this morning, but the cricket match will not be played until this week end due to Covid-19. 
Big confidence in Selby , that I will detail later . 
 

Bet 16 / Treble ??

 

  • South Africa v England - Match Odds
    England1.50
  •  
    Mark Selby v Neil Robertson - Match Betting
    Mark Selby2.00
  •  
    Judd Trump v Kyren Wilson - Match Betting
    Judd Trump1.47
 
Stake:$27.00
Potential Returns:$119.12

 

 

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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Mark selby surprised me with an amazing peformance against Hawkins yesterday, where he controled the match all time. I think that he played as number one and I thnik that he can keep his peformance again

 

Bet 17 / Snooker ??

Mark Selby v Neil Robertson
Match Odds
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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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My hot Combo 

 

Bet 18 / 5 Folds ??

  • Besiktas v Kasimpasa - Match Odds
    Besiktas1.61
  •  
    Judd Trump v Kyren Wilson - Match Betting
    Judd Trump1.47
  •  
    Pumas v Griquas - Match Result
    Griquas1.66
  •  
    Bristol v Northampton - Match Result
    Bristol1.50
  •  
    Galan v Popko - Match Odds
    Daniel Elahi Galan2.25
 
Stake:$22.00
Potential Returns:$295.10

 

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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my accumulator

Bet 21 / 5 Folds ??

  • Australia v Argentina - Alternative 2 Way Handicap Betting
    Australia (-6.5)1.36
  •  
    Dambulla Viiking v Galle Gladiators - Match Odds
    Dambulla Viiking1.72
  •  
    Georgia v Fiji - Alternative 2 Way Handicap Betting
    Fiji (-2.5)1.20
  •  
    Zhou Yuelong v Neil Robertson - Match Betting
    Neil Robertson1.25
  •  
    P Kudermetova v I Oz - Match Odds
    I Oz1.50
 
Stake:$37.00
Potential Returns:$196.08
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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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21 hours ago, Heisenberg68 said:

I took this bet this morning, but the cricket match will not be played until this week end due to Covid-19. 
Big confidence in Selby , that I will detail later . 
 

Bet 16 / Treble ??

 

  • South Africa v England - Match Odds
    England1.50
  •  
    Mark Selby v Neil Robertson - Match Betting
    Mark Selby2.00
  •  
    Judd Trump v Kyren Wilson - Match Betting
    Judd Trump1.47
 
Stake:$27.00
Potential Returns:$119.12

 

 


❌❌❌ Bet 16 Result : Selby Lost -27,00$
? Loss to date : 148,41$

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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21 hours ago, Heisenberg68 said:

Mark selby surprised me with an amazing peformance against Hawkins yesterday, where he controled the match all time. I think that he played as number one and I thnik that he can keep his peformance again

 

Bet 17 / Snooker ??

Mark Selby v Neil Robertson
Match Odds


❌❌❌ Bet 17 Result : Selby Lost -40,00$
? Loss to date : 188,41$

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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17 hours ago, Heisenberg68 said:

My hot Combo 

 

Bet 18 / 5 Folds ??

  • Besiktas v Kasimpasa - Match Odds
    Besiktas1.61
  •  
    Judd Trump v Kyren Wilson - Match Betting
    Judd Trump1.47
  •  
    Pumas v Griquas - Match Result
    Griquas1.66
  •  
    Bristol v Northampton - Match Result
    Bristol1.50
  •  
    Galan v Popko - Match Odds
    Daniel Elahi Galan2.25
 
Stake:$22.00
Potential Returns:$295.10

 


❌❌❌ Bet 18 Result : Griquas Lost -22,00$
? Loss to date : 210,41$

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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14 hours ago, Heisenberg68 said:

Bet 19 / Triple ??

  • Nimes v Marseille - Match Odds
    Marseille1.70
  •  
    Bristol v Northampton - Match Result
    Bristol1.40
  • Judd Trump v Kyren Wilson - Match Alternative Handicap 2
    Judd Trump (-2.5)1.57
 
Stake:$40.00
Potential Returns:$149.60


❌❌❌ Bet 19 Result : Trump 6-4 -40,00$
? Loss to date : 250,41$

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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3 hours ago, Heisenberg68 said:

my accumulator

Bet 21 / 5 Folds ??

  • Australia v Argentina - Alternative 2 Way Handicap Betting
    Australia (-6.5)1.36
  •  
    Dambulla Viiking v Galle Gladiators - Match Odds
    Dambulla Viiking1.72
  •  
    Georgia v Fiji - Alternative 2 Way Handicap Betting
    Fiji (-2.5)1.20
  •  
    Zhou Yuelong v Neil Robertson - Match Betting
    Neil Robertson1.25
  •  
    P Kudermetova v I Oz - Match Odds
    I Oz1.50
 
Stake:$37.00
Potential Returns:$196.08


❌❌❌ Result Bet 21 : Australia 16-16 Lost 37,00$
? Loss to date : 307,41$
 

ouha ! 21 bets , -300$ , -30% of my bank ?. 
Something really needs to change.

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harry_rag

harry_rag

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Hi mate, unlucky with the recent run, sometimes happens. As I’ve been known to lament about my own form, a blind monkey throwing darts from a unicycle could reasonably expect to pick more winners!

That said, I think you need to consider the possibility, for the time being at least, that you are a losing punter. No shame in that, most are. Nothing wrong with viewing betting as a hobby where the money you lose is the cost of admission, while aiming to improve by reducing how much you lose and eventually edging into profit.

One thing I’d ask you is what do you perceive to be your edge over the bookies, across all the sports you're betting on? Do you just look at an event and back what you fancy as long as the odds don’t strike you as too short or are you pricing things up in advance and looking for prices that are bigger than your assessment?

Your approach still seems a little too scattergun to succeed. Based on my own long and sometimes costly experience I’d say you need to specialise and find a way of setting your own odds in advance for your chosen markets.

Value is a complex and controversial topic but I don’t think that many would disagree that you need to improve your understanding and assessment of it, based on your posting to date, if you want to start reducing your losses and eventually get into the black.

Good luck with your future bets, hopefully you hit a hot streak that makes it look like I don’t know what I’m talking about! :)

 

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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This afternoon I will surely play a combo with Trump who should beat Robertson for the fourth time this year. The odds are really good . 

I likes Totteham and Palace a lot but for safety I will take 1x and x2. 
Then the English in rugby, much better than my French who won't be able to match them ! 
The Sharks should win just as easily at London Irish. 

It seems logical. I hope that everything will win

 

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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40 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Hi mate, unlucky with the recent run, sometimes happens. As I’ve been known to lament about my own form, a blind monkey throwing darts from a unicycle could reasonably expect to pick more winners!

That said, I think you need to consider the possibility, for the time being at least, that you are a losing punter. No shame in that, most are. Nothing wrong with viewing betting as a hobby where the money you lose is the cost of admission, while aiming to improve by reducing how much you lose and eventually edging into profit.

One thing I’d ask you is what do you perceive to be your edge over the bookies, across all the sports you're betting on? Do you just look at an event and back what you fancy as long as the odds don’t strike you as too short or are you pricing things up in advance and looking for prices that are bigger than your assessment?

Your approach still seems a little too scattergun to succeed. Based on my own long and sometimes costly experience I’d say you need to specialise and find a way of setting your own odds in advance for your chosen markets.

Value is a complex and controversial topic but I don’t think that many would disagree that you need to improve your understanding and assessment of it, based on your posting to date, if you want to start reducing your losses and eventually get into the black.

Good luck with your future bets, hopefully you hit a hot streak that makes it look like I don’t know what I’m talking about! :)

 

Hi mate

I'll answer you in the evening

Because I'm French and it's complicated to reply

??

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Heisenberg68

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Bet 25 / 5 Folds

  • Neil Robertson v Judd Trump - Match Betting
    Judd Trump1.72
  •  
    Tottenham v Arsenal - Double Chance
    Tottenham And Draw1.28
  •  
    West Brom v Crystal Palace - Double Chance
    Crystal Palace And Draw1.36
  •  
    England v France - Match Result
    England1.08
  •  
    London Irish v Sale Sharks - Match Result
    Sale Sharks1.40
 
Stake:$2.00
Potential Returns:$9.19
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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Hi mate, unlucky with the recent run, sometimes happens. As I’ve been known to lament about my own form, a blind monkey throwing darts from a unicycle could reasonably expect to pick more winners!

That said, I think you need to consider the possibility, for the time being at least, that you are a losing punter. No shame in that, most are. Nothing wrong with viewing betting as a hobby where the money you lose is the cost of admission, while aiming to improve by reducing how much you lose and eventually edging into profit.

One thing I’d ask you is what do you perceive to be your edge over the bookies, across all the sports you're betting on? Do you just look at an event and back what you fancy as long as the odds don’t strike you as too short or are you pricing things up in advance and looking for prices that are bigger than your assessment?

Your approach still seems a little too scattergun to succeed. Based on my own long and sometimes costly experience I’d say you need to specialise and find a way of setting your own odds in advance for your chosen markets.

Value is a complex and controversial topic but I don’t think that many would disagree that you need to improve your understanding and assessment of it, based on your posting to date, if you want to start reducing your losses and eventually get into the black.

Good luck with your future bets, hopefully you hit a hot streak that makes it look like I don’t know what I’m talking about! :)

 

Harry, I agree with everything you say.

Over the last 10 years, I haven't been a loser, but it's true that I've played less. 
In this thread, I am a loser. I've lost about 40% of my bank, that's really huge. I've never had so much loss for so few bets. 
But it's not over yet ! My goal is to reach 2k$ in December 2021. It will be necessary to succeed in winning the bets and to advance in this project. 
I still believe in it. I haven't lost everything ! 
It's going to take a long time to get back up but I'm going to make it. I will better select my bets and win as I already did. 

My strongest sports are Tennis / Football / Cricket / Snooker . So I'm going to keep playing like this. But I realize that I have lost a lot due to snooker handicaps, so I'm not going to forget that. 

I will change my bets, because I lost.
Max bet : 30$. 

I hope I'll be able to come back up slowly. That's the goal now.
I hope I could say I was really unlucky but I've reached the goal.
I think it's really possible, because every bet I play is analyzed and the ones I lost could have been won.
For example, Bet 4,9,10,13,18,19,21,22.  
It's still unbelievable.


 

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harry_rag

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Fair enough mate, no issue as long as you're enjoying it in the long run and betting money you can afford to lose. Do this long enough and you will see "impossible" runs both winning and losing. In the long run the bottom line tells you how well or badly you've done and luck becomes irrelevant.

Keep looking at your bet history and learning from it. My light bulb moment was switching from being a buyer to a seller on the spreads. The obvious next thing for me is to carry that through to a successful laying strategy but that's something for next year.

It's a sweeping generalisation but with a huge basis in reality; mug money predominantly buys or backs while shrewder money lays or sells.

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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8 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Fair enough mate, no issue as long as you're enjoying it in the long run and betting money you can afford to lose. Do this long enough and you will see "impossible" runs both winning and losing. In the long run the bottom line tells you how well or badly you've done and luck becomes irrelevant.

Keep looking at your bet history and learning from it. My light bulb moment was switching from being a buyer to a seller on the spreads. The obvious next thing for me is to carry that through to a successful laying strategy but that's something for next year.

It's a sweeping generalisation but with a huge basis in reality; mug money predominantly buys or backs while shrewder money lays or sells.


 

I think I absolutely need to take a break. A big break. 

I wonder if I should stop and start again in 2021. 

The results are not good, and the morale is bad.
I don't trust my bets and it's really worrying. 
I'm thinking about taking a 3 week break and come back in 2021 stronger.

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Heisenberg68

Heisenberg68

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31 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Fair enough mate, no issue as long as you're enjoying it in the long run and betting money you can afford to lose. Do this long enough and you will see "impossible" runs both winning and losing. In the long run the bottom line tells you how well or badly you've done and luck becomes irrelevant.

Keep looking at your bet history and learning from it. My light bulb moment was switching from being a buyer to a seller on the spreads. The obvious next thing for me is to carry that through to a successful laying strategy but that's something for next year.

It's a sweeping generalisation but with a huge basis in reality; mug money predominantly buys or backs while shrewder money lays or sells.


 

I will tell my life story 

I started in 2010 with about 200€. I managed to earn a lot in the first 2 years, up to 8k€.

Then from 2013 to 2018 I managed to stabilize and climb to 10k€. 
I took advantage of the money earned with my wife and children. 
I decided to put 2k€ and start again but it's difficult. 
A break is probably necessary to start again correctly.

I think about it 

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