Racing Chat - Saturday 21st November

[DanV89]

11.35 Lingfield - Stay Classy - 8/1

I backed this one last time at around 16/1, there was a bit of money around for her that day and she was backed into around 10/1 at one point. That race was over 7f at Wolves, she got a very wide trip under 5lb claimer Angus Villiers and then finished really well into 2nd. Steps back up to a mile here today which looks sure to suit and has Adam Kirby up this time which can only be a positive. Looks a good ew price and would be surprised if she wasn't involved in the finish.

[The Brigadier]

Some good National Hunt racing on Saturday and here’s my feelings on the 8 ITV races :-

1.50 HAYDOCK

A competitive handicap hurdle whose form will be worth following over the next couple of months. The novices Shakem Up’Arry and On The Wild Side are interesting making their handicap debuts but I’m keen to stick with Anthony Honeyball’s KID COMMANDO who won well at Ascot three weeks ago and will appreciate stepping up from 2m to the 2m3f trip here being a former 3m Irish point winner. The handicapper shunted him up 7lb for Ascot but to these eyes he still looks well treated.

KID COMMANDO 1 point each way 9/2 unibet

2.05 ASCOT

A disappointing turnout with only 4 going to post for a first prize of north of £25k. Real Steel has joined Paul Nicholl’s from Willie Mullins following his non staying 6^th in last season’s Cheltenham Gold cup at 50/1. Nicholls also runs Black Corton who likes this track and will more than likely try and force the pace along. But it’s the improving IMPERIAL AURA that takes my eye. Impressive when not only winning the now defunct Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival in March but also at Carlisle 3 weeks ago. That should have put him spot on for this and despite the fact he is officially rated 7lb inferior at these weights to both the Nicholls’ horse I can see him winning this for the very much in form Kim Bailey.

IMPERIAL AURA 2 points win @ 15/8 william hill

2.25 HAYDOCK

As mentioned in my ante-post preview earlier in the week this will a real war of attrition over 3m in the Haydock mud.I’ll stick with my original fancy of MAIN FACT who’s on an incredible nine timer for The David Pipe team stepping up in trip. For me he’s never stronger than at the line in all his wins under both codes. Robbie Power riding Relegate for Colm Murphy is a significant jockey booking and in a wide open contest should run well.

MAIN FACT 1 point each way 15/2 bet365

2.40 ASCOT

Again another disappointing turnout of only three. Both Call Me Lord and Song For Someone have to shoulder 6lb penalties here and that may be too much against LAURINA who can also claim a 7lb mares allowance so effectively receiving a hefty 13lb from the boys. She’s another Jared Sullivan horse to have left Willie Mullins to join Paul Nicholls’ yard down in Somerset and like a lot of Nicholls’ has been given a wind operation. She’s immensely talented (4^th in the Champion Hurdle in 2019) but it just didn’t work out for her over fences last season. At these weights she doesn’t even need to be within 10lb of her best form to beat the boys and I expect her to win.

LAURINA 2 points win @ 6/4 unibet

3.00 HAYDOCK

Bristol De Mai is a standing dish here with course figures of 1112 having won this in 2017 and 2018. He found LOSTINTRANSLATION just too good last season and it may well be the same case here again. I’m a big fan of Colin Tizzard’s chaser and although last season he had had a run I still expect him to come out on top. He’s scant value at around 6/5 but I can’t understand how he’s currently 14/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March. Tizzard’s horses all ran below par at the meeting for whatever reason with the exception of Lostintranslation who ran a stormer to be beaten a neck and 1¼ lengths behind Al Boum Photo and Santini who’s  current Gold Cup odds are 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. If he wins this that 14/1 will be a distant memory. I cant have the two rank outsiders despite this afternoons money for Bellshill but obviously Paul Nicholls’ Clan Des Obeaux is a big player.

LOSTINTRANSLATION 2 points win @ 11/8 william hill

LOSTINTRANSLATION 1 point each way @ 14/1 Cheltenham Gold Cup paddy power

3.17 ASCOT

The ground is the key to this race. If the ground is genuinely soft (the times were slow this afternoon) then I expect Kim Bailey’s FIRST FLOW to take plenty of beating. Bailey loves this horse but has stated on several occasions that very soft is essential for his mudlark. His mark of 148 looks very workable. On the other hand Henry De Bromhead’s Abbey Magic is a very talented who the trainer says is a good ground mare. Magic Saint won at Cheltenham last Saturday but is up 7lb here in a deep race whilst his stable mate Capeland bolted up in this last year and is only 7lb higher (that wouldn’t have stopped him then for sure). I’ll take a chance that there enough juice in the ground for First Flow.

FIRST FLOW 1 point win @ 5/1 william hill

3.35 HAYDOCK

I previewed this in the week and as expected the ante-post favourite Cloudy Glen failed to declare. I will stick with ALMINAR down the bottom of the weights for Devon trainer Nigel Hawke and stable jockey David Noonan who will love this test of stamina. He’s also had his wind done since he last ran which may squeeze out a bit more improvement. It looks wide open mind with plenty of dangers.

ALMINAR 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 (advised @ 16/1 in week)

3.50 ASCOT

A hard race to assess with 10 of the 13 yet to see a racecourse of any description. This will go to a newcomer with debutants from the big yards of Pauling, Nicholls, Tizzard, Twiston-Davies and Henderson. I can pass on a good word for the Nicky Henderson newcomer WRAYSFORD and he would be a tentative selection to small stakes.

WRAYSFORD ½ point win @ 4/1 william hill