Racing Chat - Monday Sep 21st

[BillyHills]

Grade B Hurdle at Listowel (3.10)

 

2pts Ceberus 100/30 Hills

 

Class 3 Chase at Warwick (2.45)

 

1pt The Bay Birch 7/1 betfair

 

 

 

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today

3.25 Ham Wades Magic £2 win at 5.0 (10/3)
3.55 Ham Nietzche £2 win at 4.6 (smashed in to 3.65 so probably won't get matched; see if I care) 5/2
5.30 wolv Electrique £2 win at 4/1
£1 win trixie = £4 poss return of £130.17

1.00 Leic Spanish Mane £2 win at 9/2

My pick of PL Naps

1.00 Leic Gherkin £1.20 win at 17/2

Should be back later with more plus possible "lay" bets

 

Going to lay Side shot in th 7.30 at Wolv.  £20.42 at 2.94 (UM) 3.6 atm (set price for in running) if it loses I win £20 if it wins I lose £39.61.  It may be the best horse but it has two good opponents and not all horses take to Tapeta on their first attempt

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My multpies failed so a £4 loss was incurred this leaves the balance c/fwd as £666.9 (£800 Bank)

I did have one winner on my singles and endured a 10p rule 4 deduction and got paid £10.10.  Outlay £9.20 so a whopping 90p profit. The balance C/Fwd is now £251.48 (£400 Bank)

I only had time for one of the Naps selections which lost £1.20.  The C/fwd balance is now -£22.70

My late "lay" bet won its race by a short head so I incurred a los of £39.61.  The balance c/fwd on lay bets is now - £19.61

Only one class 2 and one class 3 race tomorrow across the UK.  A number of class 4 races and since my winner today came from a class 6 race maybe there's a chance of some winners

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 21, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Bathtime For Rupert]

12.45 Warwick - 1pt e/w Achy Breaky Heart @ 10/1 Bet365

Favourite is solid but has to give plenty of weight away under a double penalty, the second favourite is not proven at this trip and the third favourite comes back off a lengthy absence so with 3 places on offer, I think Robin Dickin's runner has a solid chance of making the frame at the very least. Needs good ground to be at its best, as shown in points and when a solid 2nd last time out. I don't think the extra furlong will be a problem at all when runner up to a type who I'd expect to go in again when next seen so although that form isn't as strong as the favourite's, there's a sizeable weight difference between them here and I'm hopeful we can make the first three at least.

1.45 Warwick - 0.5pts e/w Red Charmer @ 22/1 Hills

Taking a big leap of faith with this one but is a big price so no major risk involved and it's a poor race. Lots of these have something to prove and whilst Red Charmer is a 10-year-old now and has shown nothing over hurdles so far, all of these have come under testing conditions and I would strongly suspect a bare 2 miles on decent ground is what this one would want in the jumping sphere. Does finally get that today so is worth giving one final go over hurdles in a poor contest.

2.00 Leicester - 1pt e/w Flirty Rascal @ 9/1 Bet365

Competitive race and there looks plenty of pace in here and that could play into the hands of Flirty Rascal. Was disappointing when last seen but that came just 3 days after a solid 2nd at Goodwood and perhaps was too soon. Been off for 10 days since and conditions ought to suit here. Hopefully can get a decent lead off the pace setters and come through late. 

2.55 Hamilton - 1pt win Red Bravo @ 13/2 Hills

Red Bravo looks to hold every chance here with conditions to suit and a stiff finish that will play to his strengths. Was slowly away and couldn't get involved despite running on at Chepstow last time and was only narrowly held there a couple of starts back. On a winnable mark and should be coming home well up the hill today.

3.15 Warwick - 1pt e/w Tree of Liberty @ 12/1 Bet365

This is significantly easier than the race Tree of Liberty ran in at Perth last time and he just downed tools once headed after his jumping went to pot half way through the contest - still wasn't beaten miles and will find these easier to dominate if jumping better with blinkers applied. Continues to slide down the weights and should enjoy this track so at a double figure price looks an attractive proposition down in grade.

3.25 Hamilton - 2pts win Show Palace @ 7/1 Hills

Today can be the day for Show Palace having had obvious excuses the last twice - would have won with a clear run two starts back and despite racing keenly last time was right there 100 yards out before fading - was found to have a cut on its leg afterwards and now returns with softer ground in his favour and hopefully can just be allowed to bowl along here rather than be restrained. Big chance at a decent price.

[Valiant Thor]

Top Rated (with expected positive edge) in extra place races. (BETFRED)
2.55 Ham Josiebond   7/1
4.30 Ham Talk Now.....jt TR  10/1
4.30 Ham Rosemay....jt TR   13/2
7.00 Wolv Point In Time 11/1
8.00 Wolv Plansina  11/1
possible ew doubles ????????

Edited September 21, 2020 by Valiant Thor
some races revoved due to NRs