Racing Chat - Saturday 19th September

[Darran]

Group 1 action at both Caulfield and Randwick in the morning and plenty of clues for other big races to come in the next month and a half as well. Drew a blank last week although Flemington missing the forecast rain didn't help matters as it ended up being very quick ground. I have bets in 7 races tomorrow

Caulfield R4 (5.15am)

I like the look of Front Page here who has won 4 of his 6 starts including the last 3. He has gone from a BM58 to a BM68 and then won in Listed company at Flemington last time. That is like going from a Class 6 to a Class 5 and then into Listed company over here. Those races were in May and June so he is 1st up here, but has won both times 1st up so that isn't an issue and he was really impressive at Flemington winning by nearly 3L and clocking a good time. He is likely to be hard to beat, but I will have a saver on William Thomas. He is 4/6 over 1100m and 3/5 over course and distance. He is also 1st up and has won 3/5 on 1st time up so he could easily go close here.

Front Page @ 7/4 with Bet365

William Thomas @ 13/2 with Bet365

Caulfield R6 (6.35am)

Aidensfield is the pick here. She won her 1st two races here and at Sandown in May and then was 2nd a couple of weeks ago in a Listed race at Moonee Valley. I thought she was a bit unlucky there as well as she had to make a sweeping run on the outside whereas the winner got a nice run on the inside and was able to sit and sprint. The winner is a good horse anyway so it was a good effort and she looks like being capable of going 1 better here.

Aidensfield @ 3/1 with Bet365

Caulfield R9 (8.25am)

I'm pretty keen on Lyre here who looks to have been found a good opportunity in this G3 contest to end the card. She had some strong form in G1 races earlier in the year including being 2nd to Bella Vella in the Sangster at Morphettville and 3rd in the Goodwood at the same venue. 1st up she was 2nd over 1100m here last month and she was a touch unlucky as well. Going up to 1200m will suit and she really deserves to get her head in front again. She's got good draw in 3 so should be able to sit just behind the speed and then pounce in the straight.

Lyre @ 6/4 with William Hill

Randwick R3 (4.25am)

Cinquedea had been struggling a bit on testing ground, but put in a much improved performance on a Good 4 over 1500m here a couple of weeks ago. He had a terrible draw and found herself way too far back in a race dominated by those on the speed, before flying home. He clocked the 3rd best final 600m, 400m and 200m of the whole day on that occasion. His last win came over this trip back in February and with a much better draw, down in grade hopefully he can build on that last time out effort. I do want Across Dubai on side again having been on him last time when he was 4th in the same race as Cinquedea. That's 3 solid runs now since arriving in Australia and he should be fitter for this 2nd up.

Cinquedea e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred

Across Dubai e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred

Randwick R5 (5.40am)

Probabeel ran a huge race 1st up over 1200m here a month ago a trip which would have been too short for her. She didn't have much room until late on either and when she got out she flew home. Her 2nd up stats are impressive and she has finished in the 1st 2 in 12 of her 16 starts. She won a G1 over this course and distance in February and I think she can take this G3 on the way to bigger targets this spring.

Probabeel @ 17/10 with Bet365

Randwick R6 (6.15am)

The G1 George Main looks a good chance for Verry Elleegant to land another G1 contest. I didn't fancy her in the Winx Stakes a month ago as I thought the 1400m would be too short for her, but she put in a really impressive performance to win that day. That was her 1st run since finishing 2nd to Addeybb in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Avilius won this last year and ran well last time, but he usually finishes behind Verry Elleegant now.

Verry Elleegant @ 7/5 with Bet365

Randwick R9 (8.15am)

Criaderas is 3/3 for Godolphin and set a track record last time (although that is from a small sample size), but the form hasn't worked out that well so I am going to take him on with Icebath. I have put him up the last twice and she hasn't had a great deal of luck in running either time. She found himself too far back last time and then got hampered around 200m out. She is clearly ready to win and hopefully she gets a better ride and more luck this time.

Icebath @ 18/5 with Bet365

[andypandy23]

@Darran what is going on? Your tips have been crap for over a month!

[calva decoy]

38 minutes ago, andypandy23 said:

@Darran what is going on? Your tips have been crap for over a month!

Not a nice thing to say , we all have bad / good runs , what are your top 4 picks with write ups for today ? Good luck ?

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, andypandy23 said:

@Darran what is going on? Your tips have been crap for over a month!

You seem to totally misunderstand what one should do with horse racing tips from dedicated members of the forum.  I counted 387 horses running today in the UK!  Many members do a lot of work in trying to identify value bets for us all.  The logical approach is to JUST take a closer look at the selections that are put up and try to see for yourself if there is an angle for a value bet that you might otherwise have missed.  You have to do some work yourself.  You will fail otherwise.  Finally, if you give a dog a bone you don't expect it to come back and complain do you?   

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.20 Ayr - 2pts win Recovery Run @ 4/1 Bet365

A few in here with chances but Andrew Balding's runner has been going well despite races not quite going his way in my eyes. Won from a smart type in a novice two starts back and was narrowly held in a slowly run race at Kempton last time. Looks like he wants a stronger test - no surprise being by Nathaniel - and hopefully a better pace here and the slightly more testing ground will help with that. Still looks fairly handicapped and hopefully can outstay these at the finish. 

1.40 Newbury - 1pt win Wise Words @ 7/1 Bet365

I backed Equilateral at York and whilst clearly has a chance, I'm not convinced by him to be honest. Travelled well and despite not having a lot of room, didn't exactly pick up when in the clear. I think he needs a real fast pace to run at so I'm just going to side against with the progressive Wise Words. Plenty of good form last year and although in handicaps, was narrowly beaten by Tinto giving 8lbs away when running off a mark of 90, with the pair 6 lengths clear, so was not just any old handicapper. Was a big eyecatcher last time out when having to fall back towards the rear having found a wall of horses in front but stayed on powerfully late on. Hopefully this doesn't come too soon today as if it doesn't, looks a live contender.

2.15 Newbury - 1pt e/w Kingbrook @ 10/1 Bet365

Shaped very well when 3rd after a long absence, just behind Tenbury Wells and was always likely to come into his own over middle distances. Plenty of worthwhile form over 7f and a mile last year but ought to come on for reappearance and conditions suit off a fair mark so ought to go well.

2.30 Ayr - 2pts win King's Lynn @ 4/1 Bet365

Nothing original about selecting the short price favourite in a huge field but if he's on the right part of the track will take the world of beating in my eyes. Looks more than fairly handicapped on form to date, still unexposed and ought to come on for his clear 2nd to a now 111-rated rival last time out. Done nothing wrong so far, any give in the ground won't inconvenience on pedigree and looks the one to be on here.

3.40 Ayr - 1pt e/w Another Batt @ 18/1 Bet365

Hung right throughout last time in Ireland and is worth giving him another chance on the basis of his smooth reappearance win. I thought a testing 6f would help him and he ought to relish the big field pace on offer here. Has enough speed to live with these and get into the race if the gaps appear and back down to 6f off a mark that still looks fair on old form, could bounce back, especially as that win came from off the pace with the next few home all racing prominently throughout.

[vikki37]

1 hour ago, andypandy23 said:

@Darran what is going on? Your tips have been crap for over a month!

There are always ups and downs in betting and it's your choice whether to follow or not. Darran has always given a lot of time and effort for predictions on football and horses for many years on this forum. (Also, making profits mostly too.) Much appreciation to @Darran!

[The Equaliser]

As I said above I counted 387 runners in the UK today so it should be a doddle to find winners shouldn't it ?

One Trixie for £1 today = £4 = poss return of £175.33

2.15 Nb Tenbury Wells 7/2
4.15 Ayr Shelir 10/3 but got a win bet at 7/2  f or £2
5.25 Ayr Harrison Point 9/2 £2 win

Other bets

2.15 Nb Good Birthday 70p win at 9/1 (not strong enough for £1.20 stakes)
2.15 Nb Ouzo 70p win at 11/1

4.15 Ayr Another Touch 45p win at 18/1

5.25 Ayr Three Saints Boy 45p win at 25/1

5.34 Nm Lunar Magic 70p win at 12/1

Total Multiples = £4

Total Singles = £7

Total stakes = £11

Should be back later with my pick of the Napster tips.  Fascinating but frenetic day and one where everyone should be careful about staking too much

My pick of Napster tips

Just a couple before doing more research

2.15 Nb Kingbrook 70p win at 11/1

2.30 Ayr Kings Lynn £2 win at 5.8 = £9.41 if win

Continuing on now and be back soon

4.30 Nb Almufti £1.20 win at 8/1

4.50 Ayr Multellie £1.20 win at 6/1

5.15 Wolv Englishman 30p win at 50/1

5.35 Nm Phoenix Approach £2 win at 9/2

5.55 Nm Isle Of Aron £1.20 win at 9/1

Total Napster tips £8.60 today

========================================================================================================

The third day running for a complete blank.  Loss on multiples = £4 and balance C/Fwd is £670.69 (£800 Bank)

No singles winners on my own bets or Naptsers. = a £15.60 loss.  Hence the balance C/Fwd is £259.78 (£400 Bank)

No Napster win bets and the balance c/fwd is -£17.00

Not much class action tomorrow and the prices on offer look a bit short to me.  Wondering whether to give racing a miss.  Probably won't though

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 19, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[andypandy23]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

You seem to totally misunderstand what one should do with horse racing tips from dedicated members of the forum.  I counted 387 horses running today in the UK!  Many members do a lot of work in trying to identify value bets for us all.  The logical approach is to JUST take a closer look at the selections that are put up and try to see for yourself if there is an angle for a value bet that you might otherwise have missed.  You have to do some work yourself.  You will fail otherwise.  Finally, if you give a dog a bone you don't expect it to come back and complain do you?   

I'm actually one of Darran's biggest fans, both his footy and his nag tips. I was slightly ribbing him with the comment which maybe didn't come across. BUT...this is his worst run of form horse-wise since I've been tracking him, which is almost a year and a half. 

 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, andypandy23 said:

I'm actually one of Darran's biggest fans, both his footy and his nag tips. I was slightly ribbing him with the comment which maybe didn't come across. BUT...this is his worst run of form horse-wise since I've been tracking him, which is almost a year and a half. 

 

My best advice for you is to stick with him, he will come out of the gloom.  However, as I said above, you should really do a bit of research yourself before just blindly following what anybody suggests as a tip whether it be horse racing, football or anything else.  Good luck whatever you do.

[andypandy23]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

My best advice for you is to stick with him, he will come out of the gloom.  However, as I said above, you should really do a bit of research yourself before just blindly following what anybody suggests as a tip whether it be horse racing, football or anything else.  Good luck whatever you do.

You do see it with him. Lots of the selections this week came  in second.

 

[Villa Chris]

Was hungover today and just didn’t have the head for it. Tried to look into a few races this morning, but my mind weren’t with it 

[Tedthewolf]

10 hours ago, andypandy23 said:

@Darran what is going on? Your tips have been crap for over a month!

Tottaly discussed at that comment to be honest. Nobody likes a bit of banter more  than me and i have been guilty of calling my own tips crap but you don't  even bother to take the time to put horse slections on here as for Darren he has  had some fantastic days  on his his slections from oz and the amount of time and effort he puts in with  his detailed  views is excellent  where mine are repetative and at times minimal. We all have bad runs  but it will not be long  before Darren is knocking in the winners in again we should be incouraging  the guys that have the guts to post there tips regularly here and spend a lot of time studing they shoud be aplauded and encouraged, Negative  comments are not warranted or wanted imo. Think before you post. Rant over.

[andypandy23]

I wasn't stating anything that was untrue. Was asking a genuine question i.e. how come his recommendations have been crap when they usually produce winners.

Is there a reason for this uncharacteristically bad form?

6 weeks, 52 tips, 6 winners, total odds just shy of 14 to 1.

 

Edited September 19, 2020 by andypandy23

[Tedthewolf]

So crap is a good  polite way of asking is it?

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

10 minutes ago, andypandy23 said:

I wasn't stating anything that was untrue. Was asking a genuine question i.e. how come his recommendations have been crap when they usually produce winners.

Is there a reason for this uncharacteristically bad form?

6 weeks, 52 tips, 6 winners, total odds just shy of 14 to 1.

 

Sorry if iam wrong Andy been tracking Darren 18 months but you only joined July if I am wrong sorry ?

[LEE-GRAYS]

18 minutes ago, andypandy23 said:

I wasn't stating anything that was untrue. Was asking a genuine question i.e. how come his recommendations have been crap when they usually produce winners.

Is there a reason for this uncharacteristically bad form?

6 weeks, 52 tips, 6 winners, total odds just shy of 14 to 1.

 

lets see some of your tips then so we can judge if darren is as crap as you say 

[andypandy23]

I've been watching the forum for about two years Lee-Grays. I have never claimed to be a tipster, what I do it track tipsters. If you want to know the form of the daily nag and Soccer tips I can provide that info.

No offence, but some of you are way too sensitive. Or defensive. Very much doubt Darran would have taken offence at the bluntness of my language as he knows how good he can be. 

[LEE-GRAYS]

3 hours ago, andypandy23 said:

I've been watching the forum for about two years Lee-Grays. I have never claimed to be a tipster, what I do it track tipsters. If you want to know the form of the daily nag and Soccer tips I can provide that info.

No offence, but some of you are way too sensitive. Or defensive. Very much doubt Darran would have taken offence at the bluntness of my language as he knows how good he can be. 

Ok then would be nice to see some new tipsters on here ?