Racing Chat - Sunday April 5th

[BillyHills]

Sha Tin in the morning, Gulfstream and Tampa Bay later on.

 

Sha Tin Yankee

645 Waikuku 5/6
715 Chairman Lo 11/4
910 Aethero 10/11 (NAP)
1015 Ping Hai Bravo 1/2

18/1 Acca

 

[Trotter]

Through the card at Sha Tin .......

5.45 Decisive Twelve 2/1

6.15 Unique Treasure 11/8

6.45 Waikuku 4/6

7.15 Chairman Lo 10/3

8.05 Butterfield 11/4

8.40 King Drago 7/2

9.10 Hot King Prawn 9/4

9.40 True Legend 7/1

10.15 Ping Hai Bravo 8/11

10.50 Emerald Spur 7/1

phew, that's a bit of a marathon! ...... 

prices wm hill 

[Tedthewolf]

Had look at the Handicaps at Sha Tin have played small stakes to try my luck!

5.45 here comes ted 13/2 (e/w L15)

6.15 harmony spirit 33/1 e/w

8.40 even keel 66/1 e/w- go ballistic 7/1 (e/w L15)

9.40 brave baby 66/1 e/w

10.15 nordic warrior 10/1 (e/w L15)

10.50 glorious lover  16/1 (e/w L15)

 

 

[Trotter]

Oh dear ...... between BH, Me and Ted we made 20 selections, a few of them odds on ....... and we didn't have a single Win or EW Place between us

Rubbish this Hong Kong Racing ....... ?

I've looked at two cards so far, 18 races, and had 2 winners .... obviously trying to look at every race on an 8 or 10 race card is a bit silly when they're nearly all double figure field handicaps. I think in future I'll go back to my usual modus operandi of concentrating on a couple of races rather than spending time on them all

 

[Trotter]

Also as HK only races twice a week I might have a look at these US Claimers to see if I can figure out what it's all about

The Racing Post don't seem to cover US meetings at the smaller tracks but SSR do ....... well the meetings on TV anyway

Looking at the SSR site (ATR) at least they show the OR for the horses which I don't think the Post do ..... that's a big help

The immediate problem is that the races don't appear to be Graded so at first sight you have no idea what level of race the runners have been competing in. My initial startig point is just to go by the money  ...... and assume that the higher the prize money the higher class the race. So a horse that has been running in 23K Claimers and is now in a 10K Claimer is dropping in class

Seems a reasonable assumption!

If anyone has any tips on how to approach US Claimers I'd be happy to take them on  board

It's obviously not the same as the odd Claimer we have over here where trainers might run a horse because they think it's OR is too high to be competitive in handicaps. That doesn't apply in the US meetings because there don't appear to be any handicaps at the meetings that are on now.

 

 

[Valiant Thor]

3 I think might be in with a shout tonight @ Tampa

5.52 EPIC DRAMA 7.65 @ 7/1 Hills 4th led faded final furlong

6.48 ANDREW THE BULL 8.75 @ 6/1 B365 u/p

8.20 SPEEDING STARLET 13.60 @ 7/2 B365

3 singles & a 5pts ew treble ?

40pts staked

I think I'll give yankee racing a miss from now on its like bingo on legs, I couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo at the moment

Edited April 5, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[LeMale]

I know what you mean @Valiant Thor, was thinking the same until recently, only reason i carried on is this site. They're trying to keep the comps going, even offering more money in the naps comp and i'm finding the Punters Lounge community a nice break in a boring day, even striking up some nice friendships through messages. 

Also, i agree @Trotter about racing grade and that the way to judge this is by prize money. I've used At The Races for OR, previous races/runs, jockey info and replays of races...not that it helped much with my naps? I've found it very hard to find "my type of pick" something with good ew value. 

Something i have noticed is the standard of jockeys seem very different in the States, as is the way most try to run their race. Position seems key on these tracks. If you're not there or there abouts entering home straight, they're going to struggle, but so many seem to want to come from way back with a late burst because it looks good.(look good first, win second) Nearly all fail when it appears they were on the quickest horse but left it too late. On more than one occasion i've seen horses entering the home straight, jockey whipping away head down, and the horse veers hard right for 2 to 3 seconds before the jockey even realizes. Have also seen some jockeys whipping away on horses that are out on their feet and have no chance of winning.

Their bad are very bad, their average are bad, their good are average, at best. This leaves a handful of very good jockeys and imo find the decent jockeys and they should find you a few winners every day. I've been betting on Tyler Gaffalione and Luis Saez the past week (almost all low odds and favorites, not my normal cup of tea) in accas, lucky 15 etc and have done ok. Tyler Gaffalione seems to me to be a very good jockey and has had quite a few winners recently and i've done well with him, as is the same with Saez, i just personally don't like him as much. I'm sure they won't win again all year now i've said that lol and they don't race again until 9th at Gulfstream anyway. I know you have far more knowledge and experience than me and i'm just stating the obvious but just thought i'd share my recent experience of what  i've read and watched and how i got there. I'd be interested to find out how you're going to tackle it? 

Jason (LeMale) 

 

[Trotter]

@LeMale

I've had a look at a couple of these Claimers tonight ...... selections in the £20 thread

I had a bit of a read of 'Racing For Dummies' which gave an outline of how US racing is structured ........ of course we all know the Grade One races, the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup but I had no idea about the day to day racing out in the sticks which is what appears to be on at the moment

I've got in my head that Allowance races are better than Claimers and Claimers are better than Maidens ........ and then after that just look at the prize money. You'd expect that in the USA it would be all about the money !

As I don't know the form or anything about the different tracks I'm being guided by the market more than I might in the UK ..... I'm letting the market pick my short list of 3 or 4

So in the 7.15 tonight I've got it as a 13K Claimer. 

The front 3 in the market are Nocturnal Mission (Fav), Golden Lullabye and Shallow River

Nocturnal Mission has won a 13K Claimer but it was over a Mile and today is 6 furlongs so I'm inclined to oppose that on the basis that it probably wants further

Golden Lullabye drops in class after running in 23K Allowance races but on the negative has never won. Finished 3rd in what I assume were better races the last twice and is lightly raced but maybe it jus doesn't stick it's head out ... not really enough  info to go on

Shallow River has won a 23K Maiden and a 13K Claimer and has won 2 and placed 3 in her 5 runs (by the way I don't know if the ATR site shows all their career runs?). The negative here is coming back from a break but the trainer has a terrific record at the track 

I'm opposing the favourite and going with the other two. If I had to pick one it would be Shallow River

Let's see how we go!

[LeMale]

Thanks for your insight and advice @Trotter, very well received. I often use your £20 challenge bet, so thanks for that. "Racing for Dummies"...i get the hint...i'll give it a read! ?

[Trotter]

@LeMale

?

This is the article I read which gives an outline of the different races ..... 

https://www.dummies.com/sports/examining-different-levels-of-competition-at-the-racetrack/