richard-westwood Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Got a few days off so I can rate a fair few races ....started with the Welsh national .....I'll just post ratings for now and back in a couple days .... Welsh national Elegant escape 244 +2 Captain chaos 242 +2 Computer has surprisingly chopped to 2 horses which is unusual for such an open race ....also it's the battle of weights ...elegant top weight and captain currently bottom weight .....personally I like a low weight in these slogs so the 20/1 On captain chaos looks outstanding value but elegant escape has an air of class and could be hard to stop ....def8nately between these 2 for me vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Welsh National 250 Chepstow 3m6½f (3m6f130y) Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) Trends 10/10 Ran within 60 days (8 within 35) 8/10 Aged 8 or under 8/10 Carried under 11st 7lbs 7/10 rated 137 or higher 19/22 Placed first 4 last time (14 1st or 2nd) 19/22 Ran no more than twice this season 21/22 Had won at 3m+ previously 15/22 Had ran at this trip or beyond previously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 (edited) Paddy power chase Computer narrowed to 3 No comment 9/1 corals Ex patriot 20/1 lads Any second now 20/1 pp I'll try 3x 10pt wins and try for a big payout 6x1pt forecasts Edited December 24, 2019 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Welsh National Ratings Trends 10/10 Ran within 60 days (8 within 35) All qualify 8/10 Aged 8 or under We lose Yala Enki, West Approach, Potters Corner, Pobbles Bay, Field Exhibition Space Cadet, Rathlin Rose, Looks Like Power 8/10 Carried under 11st 7lbs We lose Elegant Escape 7/10 rated 137 or higher We lose Arthurs Gift, Prime Venture, Virginia Chick, Captain Chaos 19/22 Placed first 4 last time (14 1st or 2nd) We lose Pop Rockstar 19/22 Ran no more than twice this season We lose Truckers Lodge Selections 1pt Now McGinty 11/2 Hills 1pt EW The Two Amigos 20/1 Coral (first 5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 6 meetings Nap: 1230 Ch: Harry Senior 6/4 bet365 Nb: 230 K: Sceau Royal 7/4 betfair Others: 105 Ch: Eceparti 1/1 bet365 130 E: Goobinator 4/7 bet365 100 W: Tarada 4/9 bet365 9/2 Treble EviL ZippY 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolemat Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 No computer or statistics here,purely the opinion of a rider who has ridden the horse and a rare opinion at that.Nothing better than a P before a horses last run to get a price and a favourite being 3 from 3 at even money making the market.Up to the individual obviously whether to lay the favourite or back this horse at 9/2 before the off.If my information is correct he will be around 3/1 or less,should not see another horse is what I have been told,schooled brilliant and worked very well. Only once in a blue moon has this colleague ever said he was so confident that barring a fall the horse should win,Whatswrongwithyou goes in the 1.05 at Chepstow and at worst he says we can have a free bet by backing at 9/2 to lay as he predicts a lump of money going on. BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EviL ZippY Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Sceau Royal out to 11/4 ? am I missing something... ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Looking at the Welsh National, I think Captain Chaos has a better chance than 22/1, which is currently available with several bookies. I've taken 20/1ew with skybet, who are going 6 places. LTO finished a close second, carrying 10-1 and that 3lb rise got him bottom weight in today's race. Top Ville Ben finished third in CC's last race and, of course, won yesterday, in another grade 3, so I think it's entirely possible that CC can spring a surprise today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Race Trends Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Welsh Grand National trends: 20/20 returned 20/1 or less 20/20 rated 155 or less 20/20 last run 20-54 days ago 20/20 finished 1-6 LTO 20/20 won 1+ of its last 10 races 20/20 won 2+ times over fences 14/20 finished 1-3 at the course (6 had not run at the course) Shortlist: Potters Corner (11/1) West Approach (12/1) Pobbles Bay (22/1) richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Captain Chaos 2 50 chep 1pt win 25/1 betfair P/L Account = + 113.75 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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