Racing Chat - Friday 27th Dec (Welsh National)

[richard-westwood]

Got a few days off so I can rate a fair few races ....started with the Welsh national .....I'll just post ratings for now and back in a couple days ....

Welsh national 

Elegant escape  244 +2 

Captain chaos 242 +2 

Computer has surprisingly chopped to 2 horses which is unusual for such an open race ....also it's the battle of weights ...elegant top weight and captain currently bottom weight .....personally I like a low weight in these slogs so the 20/1 On captain chaos looks outstanding value but elegant escape has an air of class and could be hard to stop ....def8nately between these 2 for me  

[BillyHills]

Welsh National 

250 Chepstow

3m6½f (3m6f130y) Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Trends

10/10 Ran within 60 days (8 within 35)
8/10 Aged 8 or under
8/10 Carried under 11st 7lbs
7/10 rated 137 or higher
19/22 Placed first 4 last time (14 1st or 2nd)
19/22 Ran no more than twice this season
21/22 Had won at 3m+ previously
15/22 Had ran at this trip or beyond previously.

 

[richard-westwood]

Paddy power chase 

Computer narrowed to 3 

No comment 9/1 corals 

Ex patriot 20/1 lads 

Any second now 20/1 pp

I'll try 3x 10pt wins and try for a big payout 

6x1pt forecasts 

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

Welsh National Ratings

 

Trends

10/10 Ran within 60 days (8 within 35)
All qualify
8/10 Aged 8 or under
We lose Yala Enki, West Approach, Potters Corner, Pobbles Bay, Field Exhibition
Space Cadet, Rathlin Rose, Looks Like Power
8/10 Carried under 11st 7lbs
We lose Elegant Escape
7/10 rated 137 or higher
We lose Arthurs Gift, Prime Venture, Virginia Chick, Captain Chaos
19/22 Placed first 4 last time (14 1st or 2nd)
We lose Pop Rockstar
19/22 Ran no more than twice this season
We lose Truckers Lodge

Selections
1pt  Now McGinty 11/2 Hills
1pt EW The Two Amigos 20/1 Coral (first 5)

[BillyHills]

6 meetings

Nap: 1230 Ch: Harry Senior 6/4 bet365

Nb: 230 K: Sceau Royal 7/4 betfair 

Others:

105 Ch: Eceparti 1/1 bet365
130 E: Goobinator 4/7 bet365
100 W: Tarada 4/9 bet365
9/2 Treble

[Rolemat]

No computer or statistics here,purely the opinion of a rider who has ridden the horse and a rare opinion at that.Nothing better than a P before a horses last run to get a price and a favourite being 3 from 3 at even money making the market.Up to the individual obviously whether to lay the favourite or back this horse at 9/2 before the off.If my information is correct he will be around 3/1 or less,should not see another horse is what I have been told,schooled brilliant and worked very well.

Only once in a blue moon has this colleague ever said he was so confident that barring a fall the horse should win,Whatswrongwithyou goes in the 1.05 at Chepstow and at worst he says we can have a free bet by backing at 9/2 to lay as he predicts a lump of money going on.

[EviL ZippY]

Sceau Royal out to 11/4 ?

am I missing something... ?

[jayalexander]

Looking at the Welsh National, I think Captain Chaos has a better chance than 22/1, which is currently available with several bookies. I've taken 20/1ew with skybet, who are going 6 places. LTO finished a close second, carrying 10-1 and that 3lb rise got him bottom weight in today's race. Top Ville Ben finished third in CC's last race and, of course, won yesterday, in another grade 3, so I think it's entirely possible that CC can spring a surprise today.

[Big Race Trends]

Welsh Grand National trends:

• 20/20 returned 20/1 or less
• 20/20 rated 155 or less
• 20/20 last run 20-54 days ago
• 20/20 finished 1-6 LTO
• 20/20 won 1+ of its last 10 races
• 20/20 won 2+ times over fences
• 14/20 finished 1-3 at the course (6 had not run at the course)

Shortlist:

• Potters Corner (11/1)
• West Approach (12/1)
• Pobbles Bay (22/1)

[black rabbit]

Captain Chaos   2 50  chep    1pt  win  25/1  betfair

 

 

 

P/L  Account  = +  113.75  pts