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Lay The Draw CgmBet Selections


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On 23/01/2019 at 10:25 AM, liero1 said:

well 80.50 profit over which sum of liability? it feels like you might be around 5-10% which would still be amazing!

No idea about the liability. I'm not getting too concerned about that. If anyone wants to calculate it then they're more than welcome. It seems to make profit,and that's what I'm concentrating on.

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On 24/01/2019 at 2:37 PM, JBird said:

Looks like these both won, well done. Can you explain a bit more about the formula you use on CGM to get these selections. Interesting strategy. I take it you only go to a maximum lay odd of a certain number ? hence some are unmatched. 

Not keen to let everyone know my theory. If it is a good system and makes money long term then everone else will get on it and I might not get matched at the odds I need/want. Apologies if that's not what you wanted to hear, but I hope you understand.

 

I need the lay odds on betfair to reach the same odds as is on the CGM bet tool. As my historical results are based on that tool, if I lay at odds higher than that then I'm risking losing value. I may lose out on some winners but in the long run value is the key word

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2 hours ago, only1woz said:

No idea about the liability. I'm not getting too concerned about that. If anyone wants to calculate it then they're more than welcome. It seems to make profit,and that's what I'm concentrating on.

Sure. Well if you got your bet list liability is just odds x stake - stake. Add it all up and then profit / liability is your yield. I think it is massively important. In the end you could be walking away with a 0.05% yield thinking it’s fantastic. Or you have a really good one and could have been increasing stakes already. 

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I don't have a bet list as such, it's all in different lists country by country and mixed in with other bets. As I said in my original post this is part of a larger system but I'm only posting up the LTD bets on here, for ease. If anyone wants to check my liability then they're welcome but I won't be bothering with it.

 

Today's bets

 

St mirren v hibs @3.9 matched.

Livingston v rangers @4.2 unmatched so far.

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You set of games, look promising being following u up on trial mood and it GOOD so far.... Nice job mate...would love if u give more insect on d way u pick your games..thanks hope u look into consideration 

Edited by Maxvroy
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Sorry I've explained as much as I want to above, I won't be giving any more info.

 

 

All 3 games were winners, however only matched in the Braga game. Was 1 tick away frm being matched before Benfica scored so that's mildly disappointing. Still, can't complain too much.

 

Total: £147.00

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Weekend results, matched in all games.

 

Napoli : £9.50

Juve : -£60.00 (93rd minute equaliser for Parma! :@)

Inter : £9.50

Frosinone £9.50

Dunarea : -£28.00

Trabzonspor : £9.50

Weekly total : -£50.00

Running total : £97.00

 

Not a great week, but not too bad either. Very late equaliser at Juve was the difference between a £50.00 loss and a £10.00 profit. Still performing well.

Edited by only1woz
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10 hours ago, Rivilearner said:

Hi I have being following your thread and seams to like it, though i have some little questions, what do you mean by MATCHED and how do you come about the amount, is it by the odds given?

Sorry for my newbie questions

Are you familiar with laying bets on betfair, or any other exchange?

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