Lay The Draw CgmBet Selections

[only1woz]

Excellent weekend for this, turns it around. Got lucky with a couple of late winners but I dare say I deserved a bit of luck.

 

Nothing for tomorrow

[liero1]

On 16.12.2018 at 11:16 PM, only1woz said:

Excellent weekend for this, turns it around. Got lucky with a couple of late winners but I dare say I deserved a bit of luck.

 

Nothing for tomorrow

very nice matey! 

[only1woz]

Struggling for time tonight but matches and odds are

Lazio @5.4

Napoli @7.8

Chievo @4.9

Juve @4.9

Psg @10.5

Psv @6.0

Hamilton @3.8

 

Edited December 21, 2018 by only1woz

[only1woz]

Sunday selections, will update after them

[only1woz]

Lazio - £9.50

Napoli - £9.50

Chievo - -£39.00

Juve - £9.50

Psg - £9.50

Psv - £9.50

Hamilton - -£28.00

St Johnstone - £9.50

Trabzonspor - £9.50

Round results - -£0.50

Overall total - £37.50

 

 

[only1woz]

[only1woz]

Juve v Samp has just started. Missed it and Juve have scored 2 mins in

Going to add it in using the pre-match odds from betfair which were sitting around 7.6. Happy to do this as it's just a test atm, and it was just down to me not being able to get my lazy bum out of bed this morning.

 

Bloody Ronaldo!

[only1woz]

The rest of todays......

 

[only1woz]

Update

 

Aberdeen - £9.50

Dundee - -24.50

Juventus - £9.50

Empoli - £9.50

Napoli - £9.50

Milan - £9.50

Update Total - £23.00

Overall Total - £60.50

 

 

Nothing now till after the new year. Have a great one everybody. Stay safe and have fun

[only1woz]

One in Portugal starting now....

[only1woz]

And 2 for tomorrow

[JBird]

On 12/7/2018 at 4:57 PM, only1woz said:

So looking at the leagues from beginning of 2015/16 season til now, these are the rough totals of profit that would hav been acheived with £10.00 lay stakes. Ireland is on the list twice as there is 2 different LTD systems within Ireland that should produce profit. Both seem to have totally different selections but if I do find that there are duplicate selections ongoing then I may leave one of them off. Odds taken from CGM bet so whatever Giraldi uses for that. I'll be using betfair to lay.

 

Looks quite promising I think. And this is just the LTD, I'm privately testing a number of other systems that will produce a variet of selections that can be back draw, back away, lay under 2.5 goals etc. Only posting the LTDs on here to keep it simple and easy to follow, for me as much as anyone lol

Hi, How did you get these figures, did you have to use excel formulas or can you discover profit or loss over the 3 seasons via just the CGM tool ? thanks

[only1woz]

CGM tool gives odds so just used them to calculate the totals, that's why it's given as rough totals or estimated profits.

 

What I have noticed is that there can be a big difference in the odds on the CGM bet tool and those offered at betfair. 

 

That may alter the totals I get during my test, but again, that's why I'm testing rather than backing with real money.

 

[liero1]

14 hours ago, only1woz said:

CGM tool gives odds so just used them to calculate the totals, that's why it's given as rough totals or estimated profits.

 

What I have noticed is that there can be a big difference in the odds on the CGM bet tool and those offered at betfair. 

 

That may alter the totals I get during my test, but again, that's why I'm testing rather than backing with real money.

 

I thought you are laying, right? Only thing here - the higher the odds (bookie, pinnacle or whatever), the higher the lay odds on betfair  that will impact your whole system.

[only1woz]

On 03/01/2019 at 11:01 AM, liero1 said:

I thought you are laying, right? Only thing here - the higher the odds (bookie, pinnacle or whatever), the higher the lay odds on betfair  that will impact your whole system.

Yes, I understand that

[only1woz]

BRAGA, SPORTING and AVES were all winners, giving profit of £28.50, leaving the current total at £89.00

 

Todays bets are

 

Obviously I've mentioned that the odds from CGM and actual betfair odds can vary a bit. So this is my thinking moving forward.

Now, you'll see 2 sets of odds for my selections. The second set of odds is the odds from CGM bet tool (Benfica should read 6.5 not 6.7).

I'm looking to get matched as close to the CGM bet odds as possible. Maximum I will accept over the CGM odds is 1 point (so 6.0 to CGM 5.0) as I don't want to lose too much value.

In light of this, I may not get matched with some bets. If I don;t get matched then I will update when I give my results.

For example, in the Porto match above, the odds on CGM were around 8.10. I set a small bet (to test) at 8.6 a day or two ago as betfair was around 9.0, and it's now shot out to 10.0

Moving forward I wil leave the original bets up and if I get matched in play then happy days, if not it'll be a void bet.

 

I need to be wary of the value, while not cutting my nose off to spite my face

 

 

 

 

 

[only1woz]

Matched in Benfica, Braga and after about 15 mins in the Porto game. All winners so current running total profit of £117.50

[only1woz]

Tonight

 

Tomorrow

 

That's it for this weekend, nothing for Sunday. Still a lot of leagues on their winter break.

[only1woz]

Matched in all 3 games

[liero1]

On 11/01/2019 at 8:53 PM, only1woz said:

Matched in all 3 games

nice one mate. this still looks promising doesnt it!!

[only1woz]

Last 3 games, lyon were 1 down for a long time, equalised late on but couldn't find a winner. Other 2 won no problem.

 

Daily total - -£16.00

Running total - £101.50

[only1woz]

Tonight

Sitting partially matched so should get there no problem.

 

More for the weekend later I'm sure......

[Sir Puntalot]

On 15/01/2019 at 9:11 AM, only1woz said:

Last 3 games, lyon were 1 down for a long time, equalised late on but couldn't find a winner. Other 2 won no problem.

 

Daily total - -£16.00

Running total - £101.50

@only1woz You might want to use a : instead of a - to separate as it's confusing if it's a positive or negative.  

Example:

Daily total: -£16.00

Running total: +£101.50

[only1woz]

I get that, thanks for the tip.

 

I usually update on my laptop, so put my positives in green and negatives in red, but did that update on my phone so wasn't able to put colours on it.

 

Will bear it in mind for future though, cheers

Edited January 18, 2019 by only1woz

[only1woz]

Saturday selections

 

None of these are too far away from being matched so hopefully will get there tomorrow

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by only1woz

[only1woz]

Tonight, juventus v chievo @10.00 unmatched at the moment

[only1woz]

Chaves 1 Porto 4  : £9.50
Inter 0 Sassuolo 0 : -£40.00
PSG v Guingamp : Unmatched (finished 9-0!!)
Galstasaray v Ankaragucu : Unmatched (Finished 6-0!!)
Juventus 3 Chievo 0  : £9.50

Weekend Total : -£21.00
Overall total      : £80.50

 

If I'd been matched in PSG and Galatasaray it'd have been almost break even, so that's disappointing but got to think about the value and play the long game with that.

[only1woz]

Tomorrow nights selections

[liero1]

15 hours ago, only1woz said:

Chaves 1 Porto 4  : £9.50
Inter 0 Sassuolo 0 : -£40.00
PSG v Guingamp : Unmatched (finished 9-0!!)
Galstasaray v Ankaragucu : Unmatched (Finished 6-0!!)
Juventus 3 Chievo 0  : £9.50

Weekend Total : -£21.00
Overall total      : £80.50

 

If I'd been matched in PSG and Galatasaray it'd have been almost break even, so that's disappointing but got to think about the value and play the long game with that.

well 80.50 profit over which sum of liability? it feels like you might be around 5-10% which would still be amazing!

[JBird]

On 1/22/2019 at 7:28 PM, only1woz said:

Tomorrow nights selections

Looks like these both won, well done. Can you explain a bit more about the formula you use on CGM to get these selections. Interesting strategy. I take it you only go to a maximum lay odd of a certain number ? hence some are unmatched.