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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Aug 18th - 20th

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On 8/16/2018 at 3:10 PM, neilovan said:

EVERTON v SAINTS

Having watched most of the opening weekends games, two teams that will struggle are Southampton and Cardiff. Cardiff are just out of their league. All Kudos to Warnock, but they are going to get battered most match days. Southampton just look rubbish to me. I don't rate Mark Hughes and he will have them playing like Stoke pretty soon.

What is the saying "for a man who's only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" ! :eek

There is nothing going forward ... no pace, little skill, and absolutely no finesse. Is Danny Ings the answer? No way. If you had to combine the number of top players that left Saints in the last 5 seasons, you could field a pretty solid team.  At some stage this selling your best assets will catch up, and the greedy owners will spend time in the Championship.

I thought Richarlison had an amazing game for Everton. 2 goals on your debut is fantastico. I think he could be the buy of the season. That second goal was a gem, as he used the defender to obstruct the goalkeeper view. Clinical. Brilliant top goal of the week for me.

Everton were very good against the middle/bottom teams at home last season. Played 13 games, WON 10, 2 DRAW, 1 LOSS. Pretty decent numbers. OK the style of player under Allardyce was not so great but those numbers are brilliant.  To me the Everton package this year is just miles better. Where they have to improve is holding/beating the top teams at home (awful record last season). A few decent results will get the home fans up and pumped.

The home win at odds of 1.95 is a gift from the bookmakers 

 

BRIGHTON v MAN UNITED

I remain unconvinced that United will challenge this season. Last season the away record was decent, but also had some weird results. Brighton won this fixture last season, and Newcastle also beat Man U.

At 1.72 for the away win, is it worth a bet? Hmmmm , not sure here. One thing I see is a lack of 1st half goals away from Man United. Just 1 goal scored in 9 away games. Pretty poor, overly defensive, trying not to lose, is not the way to set up. 

Three bets that I would be looking at here are the HT draw, NO to both teams to score, and HT/FT (Draw/Man United). Brighton with 6 HT draws in their last 9 at home (league), while United cannot get the ball in the net 1st half away. I do not feel comfortable in this game, and would be betting smaller, and looking at longer odds type bets. 

Two things turn me off the Over 2.5 goals here. One, the machine learning prediction for over 2.5 goals is a little low. Two, Man United seem to down tools when going a goal or two up. There is no intensity to press for the 3rd goal. They will put it in neutral and try to hold on ...

 

A game to observe, and not get involved in.

 

CRYSTAL PALACE v LIVERPOOL

I thought Liverpool were excellent in their opener. Naby Keita had an outstanding game, and just slotted in so easily. Playing at Liverpool will be a perfect fit for him. On the flip side here, Pellegrini had his team set up just waaaay to open. You just cannot play in this manner, against top teams away, in the Premier League. 

What's amazing to me is how well Liverpool have coped without Phillipe Coutinho. It has been a case of Phillipe WHO?  They have not missed him at all. and he filled the coffers for them to make 2 or 3 great signings.

SO first game away for them, and typical Liverpool banana skin game. These are the teams that Liverpool have messed up against in the past. Palace have some bite and teeth. Zaha will be dangerous  but I think the signing of Max Meyer could be a master stroke. 22, pure quality, coming in from Schalke.

I'm looking forward to watching this game as it could be one of the best of the weekend. Can Liverpool avoid the slip up, or will Palace shock them?

 I think the odds for the home win of 6-1 are decent.

 

WOW , what a shower from United. Listening to Scholes and Neville take them to pieces. Jose gone by December.

Gotta say I got three possible bets absolutely wrong in this one.

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As for the Liverpool game i don't think it's even gonna be close. I mean they teared up WH without switching out of 1st gear. I doubt Palace will prove difficult to handle. Granted the h2h between the two is less impressive than against WH, but Cp's playing style won't differ much from WH, at least i doubt it. They'll look for counter attacks but majority of the game will be played on CP's half. I will make a small betbuilder combo however i don't see any value whatsoever on this game. MAYBE over 1.5 at halftime which is currently priced at 2.25 Bet365 (Liverpool loves 2:0 lead at HT). One other factor to include in this match is city has 8:1 goal ratio, if Liverpool can score and not conceive they'll reclaim 1st spot for now however i doubt that's the key factor to consider. BOL

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Liverpool has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 games in Premier League.
Crystal Palace won their last 6 games in Premier League.
Liverpool won their last 3 games in Premier League.
Liverpool won their last 3 away games in Premier League.
Liverpool scored in last 3 away games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 55 Football Betting Streaks for 20.08.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-20-08-2018-10939

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On 19/08/2018 at 9:12 AM, StevieDay1983 said:

It's a good shout. I'm still undecided on Brighton. They have made a lot of additions and @Tiffy is confident they can finish comfortably mid-table. Always trust the knowledge of the fan on here. Interested to hear what he thinks about this?

Well, if I had seen this when you first posted it @StevieDay1983, I would have said to leave it alone. (after our display against Watford last week)  However, @newjack, well done on spotting a good opportunity.

i was out all day yesterday, and didn't look on on PL till about 11.30 last night, I went to the game, and was behind the goal where Brighton got their 3 first half goals. Looking back, we have carried on this season where we left off.- Dismal away, good at home. I don't know why we can't play the same away from home, it's a mystery to everyone. The Amex is becoming a fortress though, and I'd guess that's where the majority of our points will come from this season.  Carry on backing Brighton at home is the way to go this season.

Man U looked poor. I am not convinced that JM s the "Special One". I never rated his style of play at Chelsea, and he let so many really good players slip through the net back then. I can see him being removed by Christmas, as the other teams in the top 6 (with the exception of Arsenal) have improved or play better football.

 

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14 hours ago, newjack said:

As for the Liverpool game i don't think it's even gonna be close. I mean they teared up WH without switching out of 1st gear. I doubt Palace will prove difficult to handle. Granted the h2h between the two is less impressive than against WH, but Cp's playing style won't differ much from WH, at least i doubt it. They'll look for counter attacks but majority of the game will be played on CP's half. I will make a small betbuilder combo however i don't see any value whatsoever on this game. MAYBE over 1.5 at halftime which is currently priced at 2.25 Bet365 (Liverpool loves 2:0 lead at HT). One other factor to include in this match is city has 8:1 goal ratio, if Liverpool can score and not conceive they'll reclaim 1st spot for now however i doubt that's the key factor to consider. BOL

Be careful with games like this for Liverpool. It's fixtures like this that have repeatedly seen them come undone. Liverpool have only won by more than one goal at Selhurst Park once since 13th December, 1997. However, on the flip side, Liverpool have won the last four meetings with Palace at Selhurst Park in all competitions. So the history books suggest the Reds should win but it won't be a steam rollering.

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16 hours ago, neilovan said:

WOW , what a shower from United. Listening to Scholes and Neville take them to pieces. Jose gone by December.

Gotta say I got three possible bets absolutely wrong in this one.

I agree. I was at the 2 BRI V MAN U games at the Amex. He'll be gone by Xmas

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14 hours ago, newjack said:

I did end up banking hugely on Man U game. I played Brighton +0,5 and then after first 15 mins i played ht totals over 0,5, match totals o2 and won 5 mins later lol.

Nice one :ok

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2 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Be careful with games like this for Liverpool. It's fixtures like this that have repeatedly seen them come undone. Liverpool have only won by more than one goal at Selhurst Park once since 13th December, 1997. However, on the flip side, Liverpool have won the last four meetings with Palace at Selhurst Park in all competitions. So the history books suggest the Reds should win but it won't be a steam rollering.

Like I said I find it unlikely that CP will win, but I would not make any bets here as there's little to no value. Best you can hope for is a 1:2 result so you get bts + o2.5 or maybe like i said earlier 1st half goals. But that's extremely thin, i'll go with betbuilder but that's just for the sake of fun, i don't expect to bank it and if I do well that's great, saturday has been so-so :D

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4 hours ago, newjack said:

Like I said I find it unlikely that CP will win, but I would not make any bets here as there's little to no value. Best you can hope for is a 1:2 result so you get bts + o2.5 or maybe like i said earlier 1st half goals. But that's extremely thin, i'll go with betbuilder but that's just for the sake of fun, i don't expect to bank it and if I do well that's great, saturday has been so-so :D

I don't think you can judge Liverpool on a walkover West Ham game. It's at home, against an away team that came to play. Away games in the premier league are tough for all teams (even Man City). If you are not on your game, you are going to drop points.

I think there is reasonable value on Palace at 6.5 to 1 for the win, and excellent value on the home double chance (2-1). This won't be a stroll for Liverpool.

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Bath 9.10    Little Boy Blue    5-1 Bet365
    • Hey Ralphie I think Club Wexford is also meant to be a selection in the same race, mate.
    • Wednesday 26/06/2019 Carlisle 3:30 LAMLOON f/c. 13/2 stake = 10 pts. WIN
    • 5th - held up, ridden over 2f out, no impression, weakened over 1f out Asmund 14.00 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ 4\11 (bog) Promising individual. 9/1, second of 8 in minor event at York (5f, good to soft) on debut 12 days ago, clear of rest. Sets a good standard.   
    • 1st @ Evs - prominent, bumped 1st, led 14th, comfortably Potterman 15.10 Ffos Las 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog) Three-time winner over hurdles who found improvement when making winning chase debut at Worcester (20f, good) earlier this month. Further progress on the cards in this sphere and is the one to beat.  Simply Beautiful 21.00 Naas 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog) Lightly-raced filly. 11/2, excellent second of 16 in maiden at Navan (10f, good to soft) 18 days ago. Stable in good form. Sets a good standard. 
    • 18.30 Naas - Powersville - 1 Pt Win @ 7\1 Bet365
    • Kempton 18.50   NARALSAIF   25/1 Bet365
    • First one ran OK but faded out of it. Midnight Foile did what was expected and This Breac looks to have gone at the game. Skinflint will surely pick up a race though. Ballyknock Cloud should have finished in the first 3 but got hampered at a crucial stage by the faller and he stayed on well again. Certainly not saying he would have won but that certainly cost him a place which was frustrating. Could be money lent with him though.
    • Bath, 20:40, Freckles, 5/2 b365 
    • Parlay at 5.22 with Betfair After some thinking I've decided to go for this parlay. Miomir Kecmanovic to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.80 Can't see any way Ugo turns around and suddenly plays good tennis again right now so I have to give Miomir a try prematch. Benoit Paire to beat (-1.5 sets) Victor Troicki at 2.90 I don't get it here, what's up with the price? Benoit ranked 32, Victor 193, they met one time before and it was in Stuttgart 2017 on grass ofcourse and Benoit won 6-4 6-4 so what's changed since then? Benoit has become better with two titles this season on clay. Can't see how he's supposed to lose a set here. Victor got outclassed in the Surbiton challenger final by Dan Evans recently and I don't see why Benoit couldn't do the same. Victor isn't exactly playing on top level anymore even if he reached the Surbiton final.
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