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Mindfulness

Premier League Ante-Post 2017-2018

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22 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

Thanks for replying.

It is hard to put a number on these things sometimes, Brighton have performed well so far and a lot of stats back this up - I don't think you have been flukey.

Really I want to know whether you think this can be sustained?

Well, there is the million dollar question! And I think it can, for the following reasons.

Brighton are consistent, much more so than with any other manager in the past. Last season we didn't hit a barren spell. We just plodded in the same manner all season. Yes we lack firepower, but expect that to changed in January.  We have carried on from last season, and improved.

Does Hughton have a plan B? Well, who knows, his plan A works well, and there is good back up on the bench. He surprised me against WHU , by starting with Bong and Izquierdo, meaning that he was planning to play a more attacking game away from home. Probably sensing that the game was there for the taking if we got the first goal. 

I agree with you that Hughton is shrewd with his purchases, he knows how to organise a team and has good experience. My main concern is that you really lack firepower and at some point that may start to show. A barren spell maybe difficult to overcome as it will drain confidence and spirit (which is high for now) and Hughton may not have a plan b.

Brighton are 3.5 for relegation right now so markets are basically saying you only have a 28.6% chance of getting relegated this season. It just seems strange to me as you are only 3pts off the relegation zone with 29 games to play + weaker squad and less EPL experience than the teams below you.

Am I just being bitter and biased here or is this clear value play???

Haha, yes, I think you have hit the nail on the head, and letting your emotions get to you. Is it value? I don't know, perhaps? If you think it's value, then go for it, it may well happen.

I think there is more chance of that, than your antepost "Palace in the top  6 " bet that you had. But at the time it was a reasonable choice, (and the price shortened) even before the season had begun.

I wouldn't back us to go down at 3.5, or to stay up at 1.36. You are right, the season is only a quarter gone, and there are 29 games left. Although we are 3 points off relegationn, we are 4 points off a European place.

I really think that you need to start looking at Brighton with the glass half full, and leave those rose tinted specs off when backing Palace.

So, this reply probably doesn't help, but I think we will stay up.(just) And I think we can maintain consistency.

 

 

 

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@Tiffy

I never have rose tinted specs when backing Palace, business is business and price is the only thing that matters when I make a play. I've only backed Palace twice this season: +0.50 @ Burnley and +0.75 @ Newcastle, both were good selections but had no luck whatsoever. Note how many times I warn people off backing us in certain situations over the years.

Palace top 10 finish @ 7.00 was also a good selection, not many could have foreseen the shower of shit circus that was to follow. When you make long odds bets, lots will crash and burn, that one just crashed and burnt spectacularly.

Appreciate your input on Brighton but I am still none the wiser. It's a difficult one to figure out but that's ante-post betting for you - it's all about timing and decisions aren't as clear as match betting in my experience.

 

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11 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

@Tiffy

I never have rose tinted specs when backing Palace, business is business and price is the only thing that matters when I make a play. I've only backed Palace twice this season: +0.50 @ Burnley and +0.75 @ Newcastle, both were good selections but had no luck whatsoever. Note how many times I warn people off backing us in certain situations over the years.

Palace top 10 finish @ 7.00 was also a good selection, not many could have foreseen the shower of shit circus that was to follow. When you make long odds bets, lots will crash and burn, that one just crashed and burnt spectacularly.

Appreciate your input on Brighton but I am still none the wiser. It's a difficult one to figure out but that's ante-post betting for you - it's all about timing and decisions aren't as clear as match betting in my experience.

 

Yes I agree, antepost is very tricky. I've done a couple long shot accas, more for fun really. 

I'm always happy to give my input on the Albion, and I'm now going to see if I end up looking clever or a plonker by the end of the season!

Good luck against Wet Spam tmrw, I am tempted to go for BTTS, as it is a must win for both teams.

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