2017 Six Nations

[harry_rag]

Have taken Italy +44 at 11/10 with SJ (or Hills).

I'm hoping that recency bias has pushed the line too high, in the wake of Italy's humiliation at home to Ireland.

Italy have played 55 games in the last 5 years, losing 41 of them but only 3 by more than today's handicap. In total, they lost 11 games by >30 points, 7 by >40 and just those 3 games by >50. In 80% of their games they were able to stay within 30 points of their opponents.

Flipping those numbers for England, they've won 41 of their 58 games in the same period but only 1 by more than 44 points. They won just 5 by more than 3 points, 4 by >40 and just that one by >50. In 91.4% of their games their opponents stayed within 30 points of them.

I appreciate that this is far from an average fixture, and that this England team playing this Italy game today should be expected to produce a home win by a decent margin. I just don't think it should be odds against that Italy lose by less than 44 points today.

[harry_rag]

All done now with the addition of Te'o to score a try, to score 2 or more and to score 1st at 11/10. 5/1 and 12/1 with PP, along with a buy of Italy multi points (1st half x 2nd half) at 24 with Spreadex.

Think Te'o should be odds on to score a try (as he is almost everywhere else). The 1st scorer bet offers double the odds if he goes on to score again. A bit optimistic with the Italy multis bet but I think that, in such one sided games, the prospects for the underdogs' points is sometimes underestimated.

[harry_rag]

That went a bit better with wins on the handicap, Te'o anytime and Italy multi points.

Not sure what the purists made of it, but from my perspective it was a thoroughly entertaining watch. A bit more accuracy from their kicks would have been nice but I especially enjoyed the try on the stroke of half time from the penalty attempt that hit the post.

[harry_rag]

Some thoughts on this weekend's games. I decided to have a go at setting my own idea of a handicap line without knowing any of the prices on offer. I started with a quick "gut feel" line then looked at this year's results to date, head to head form over the last few years and each team's recent games, and the ratings from a website called Rugby Vision before adjusting my line and comparing it to the prices.

Wales v Ireland: I've gone for Ireland by 8 which is higher than anyone else's line. RV have Ireland 1 point superior and the fixed odds and spreads both go for Ireland by 2 or 3. Comparing actual results so far to the RV ratings, Wales have gone +11, -2 and -15 while Ireland are -9, +33 and -2. Overall I'd be inclined to have a bet on Ireland -2 at 10/11.

Italy v France: My line edged up from France by 12 to 14 to 16 the more I studied, the same as the RV estimate. The spreads offer 18-20 while the fixed odds lines are between 17 and 19. Against the ratings so far, Italy have gone -11, -33 and +16 and France -13, -3 and +2. I'd favour Italy +19 although it doesn't offer that great an edge. Reasons are Italy's improved performance against England, the 2 week break and the lingering memory of that home humiliation against Ireland. I think they've got one more big performance in them before perhaps falling short a week later against Scotland. Italy on the 1st half handicap might be worth considering as well.

England v Scotland: England by 14 for me, by 16 for RV, 13-14 for the spreads and 10-13 on the handicaps. England have gone -13, +2 and -16 so far, Scotland +9, +3 and +15. In the end I've leaned towards Scotland +13 at even money as the best bet here as I think England are a false favourite in the handicap market. The respective performance against the ratings this year and Scotland's recent form (13 wins and 11 defeats in the last 2 years, only 2 of them by more than 12 points) are the key factors for me. England by 1 to 12 points could be a decent option.

No money down for me as yet but that's where my thoughts are so far. Anyone else got any views?

[harry_rag]

First actual bets, I've taken the following with Spreadex:

Italy +9.5 points first half handicap at 10/11 and Italy to be winning at half time at 9/2

Italy were in front against both England and Wales while France have only been in front at the break in 9 of their last 23 games. Italy have only been behind by 10 or more points in 6 out of 23 games while France have only been 10 or more points up in 5 out of 23.

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the 3-way betting odds. Italy to be beating France at HT is a big call. I'm not convinced. I think the +9.5 handicap is a better bet as a single. I think Ireland are likely to snatch a win against Wales. They seem the one team that thrive on the hostile atmosphere at the Millennium Stadium (not having any of this Principality Stadium bollocks!). I can see France beating Italy by 10-15 points. I also think England will make light work of Scotland. Scotland haven't beaten England at Twickenham since 5th March, 1983. That's before I was born! England do only average just over 13 points per game at home against Scotland so expect a tight game!

[harry_rag]

Looking forward to tomorrow's game, a nice start to the weekend.

My own views outlined above would lead me to back Ireland giving up 2 or 3 but I've followed the RP tip for Ireland by 1 to 7 points at 16/5 with PP and will just have to hope they don't run riot and make me regret not backing my own opinion.

I've had a few tryscorer bets at appealing prices, 2 or more should be enough for profit. For Wales I'm on North and Liam Williams, split across anytime at 3/1 and 10/3 respectively (Spreadex and Skybet) and their goal minutes at 12 and 11 with Spreadex,

For Ireland I'm on Stander at 7/2 (10/3 best now), Murray at 9/2 (4/1 now) and Ringrose at 5/1 (Hills, Betfred and Lads)

[harry_rag]

Tryscorer study still to come but I've had a look at the RP tips for tomorrow and had the following bets:

France to win by 11-20 points at 11/4 with PP. Fits well enough with my view of the game, France to prevail comfortably in the end without going over the handicap line

England to win by 1-12 points at 19/10 with 888 and Hogg to score a try at 3/1 with Spreadex, They advise Scotland +13 which I've already stated appealed to me. The winning margin bet is favoured as I do think England will win even if they fail to cover and already have a stake in them failing to do so with my antepost bet on no Grand Slam winner. Happy to follow the tip to back Hogg at a standout price.

[harry_rag]

Got to like Italy to score a try in both halves at 4/1 with Hills,

Enhanced from 3/1, it's only 11/5 or 9/4 elsewhere. I make it that Italy have done so in 7 out of 20 home games in the last 4 years.

I'd say the prices elsewhere are probably right, in as much as they're shorter than the true odds. At 3/1 there would be the potential for the bet being fair at worst. At 4/1 I think it's a good value bet against tomorrow's opponents.

[harry_rag]

Profitable first couple of games courtesy of North's brace and Italy 1st half handicap and try in both halves, no joy on the last came.

Not fancying my "no grand slam winner" too much now, but looking forward to the last weekend's games. Thoughts to follow,

[StevieDay1983]

The final weekend of the 2017 Six Nations action here. @harry_rag, @LePapo, @Labrador, and @vikki37, what are we thinking here? As a Welshman, I am aware that if we beat France then we would be elevated into the top four of the IRB Rankings apparently and this would lead to a favourable group draw for the 2019 World Cup. So I know Wales will be totally focused on the win. I think the +4 handicap at 2.10 is worth a pop. I would also say a George North anytime try scorer would be a good bet.

[harry_rag]

Early thoughts for me;

Scotland v Italy, my "gut feel" line was Scotland by 23, the handicap line consensus is 25 to 27 while the spreads are higher at 28-31. RV ratings are 23.

For France v Wales I saw it as a coin toss while the other numbers, respectively, are France by 3 to 5, 5-7 and 5

For Ireland v England I had England by 5 with the markets and ratings going 3 to 5, 5-8 and (surprisingly) Ireland by 1

No bets for me as yet. If you gave me a free bet to use on the handicaps I'd go for Italy +27 (Scotland only beating them by more than that once in 14 meetings in the last 10 years), Wales +5 (I had it as a coin toss, Wales have won 6 of the last 11 meetings and 3 of the 5 losses were by 6 points or less) and England -3 (won 7 of the last 11, 6 of them by more than 3 points).

I'll be having the usual plethora of tryscorer bets no doubt, maybe see if there's a way of getting with Italy points if it looks like the markets have underestimated them.

[harry_rag]

Scotland v Italy: Jones to score a try at 6/4 with Lads and to score 2 or more at 13/2 with PP, Dunbar to score a try at 3.7 (5/2 with Lads ok)

Scotland expected to win this with something to spare and may pull away in the second half. Hard to find any value on their most likely trycorers, Dunbar ok at the above price but the Jones prices are the standout. You'd have to pay 34 for his try minutes which would suggest more like 5/6 anytime and 9/2 for 2 or more.

[harry_rag]

I've also decided to buy Italy hotshots at 21 with Spreadex (Esposito, Benvenuti, Venditti and Parisse)

I think I'd be asking buyers to pay at least 23. Worth taking a chance here when 1 try would edge you into profit. Scotland may win this well but hopefully will be more focused on scoring tries rather than avoiding conceding them and, with a bit of luck, it will end up being an "end of term" points fest.

[harry_rag]

Time is tight! Added the following in the later games, all look decent enough for an interest at least.

For France, Fickou to score a try at 3/1 and 2 or more at 15/1 with Hills

For England, Daly, Watson and Joseph all at 7/2 to score a try with Lads

Good luck with your bets (assuming anyone else is having any)! 

[vikki37]

I'm sorry @StevieDay1983 & @harry_rag. I know near zero knowledge about rugby except enjoy watching it. I am trying to study and learn more about it. Thanks again for the previews, insights and predictions. 

Edited March 18, 2017 by vikki37

[StevieDay1983]

1 hour ago, vikki37 said:

I'm sorry @StevieDay1983 & @harry_rag. I know near zero knowledge about rugby except enjoy watching it. I am trying to study and learn more about it. Thanks again for the previews, insights and predictions. 

Respect that, Vikki. Hopefully, you get something out of our tips and can one day give your insight when you've become more familiar with it. 

[vikki37]

12 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Respect that, Vikki. Hopefully, you get something out of our tips and can one day give your insight when you've become more familiar with it. 

Thank you. Good luck to all of you with your bets and have a great weekend. 

[harry_rag]

The less said the better about today's selections but at least "no grand slam winner" landed and it's been a decent tournament over all.