2017 Six Nations

[StevieDay1983]

The opening round of the Six Nations kicks off this weekend and here are the latest odds for some key markets...

What are we all thinking ahead of these games? As a proud Welshman, I am pessimistic about our chances. I think we might even struggle to beat an Italian side who have shown signs of improvement over recent years. Just don't think Rob Howley is a very good coach I'm afraid.

@plloyd88, @WinningAdvice, @harry_rag, and @kranaud36, you guys have all posted in here before. What do you think?

[harry_rag]

Funnily enough I almost started a thread myself to see if there was any interest. Still betting on Rugby, following all the tips in the RP and showing a small profit so far. For my own bets, I focus on try scorer markets on fixed odds and spreads.

I'm on no Grand Slam winner at 2.2 this year as I think it should be a shade of odds on rather than odds against. A few of the RP antepost tips are Wales to win at 9/1 and to finish in the top 2 at 5/2, France to finish in the bottom 2 at 11/4, Joseph top tournament tryscorer, Stander top Irish tryscorer and Campagnaro top Italian. They also advise <19.5 cards, >8.5 Scotland tries and Ireland v Scotland to be the highest scoring game.

For today I've followed them on France +6.5 on the halftime handicap and France penalty to be the first scoring play. In the other game I'm on Ireland to win by 1-12 points and bought total points at 43.

Will be having a closer look at the tryscorer markets later.

[harry_rag]

Scotland/Ireland: Having looked at the hosts from a tryscorer perspective, I wouldn't put anyone off a buy of their hotshots at 23 (25 points per Hogg, Seymour, Jones or Maitland try). As I wasn't entirely sold on Maitland's stats and was more impressed by the fixed odds prices on the other 3, I've effectively dutched the 3 of them at the best prices I could find, Seymour at 4.2 (3/1 readily available with the bookies), Jones at 7.2 (11/2 best available) and Hogg at 9/2 with Lads (one of their enhanced specials, 4/1 next best). A single winner would roughly return 100 points to 58 points staked.

No doubt I'll regret not keeping it simple with the hotshots buy as Maitland runs riot or just one of my 3 players scores 2 or more tries but, in the long run, I tend to trust in the approach of going where I see the best value.

[harry_rag]

There are also 3 players that appeal for Ireland, Murray at an enhanced 9/2 with Lads, Ringrose at 11/2 with PP and a buy of Earl's try minutes at 10 with Spreadex, which easily beats the best anytime price of 3/1.

Any 2 from those 6 should be enough for a profit.

[harry_rag]

Just one bet in the later game, Joseph to score a try at 13/5 with PP.

I'd have him closer to 2/1 than that, looks fair at the very worst.

[harry_rag]

I managed to show a small profit yesterday with 3 out of 4 winners from the RP tips (only Scotland's late win preventing a full house) and tries for Hogg and Earls. Hogg's brace means buying Scotland hotshots would have been a better option and Earls scoring early would have made anytime a better bet.

Today I've followed the RP on North anytime at 7/4, Wales -6 on the 2nd half handicap and a buy of time of 1st try. My own "value" picks are a buy of Bisegni try minutes at 6, Webb to score a try at 9/4 and Tipuric to score a try at 9/2 (the latter being enhanced prices with Lads).

Good luck and enjoy the game.

[harry_rag]

I've bought Wales hotshots at 29 with SX (L Williams, J Davies, North and Halfpenny)

I was considering a buy at 31 before the price went up to 34, I can't resist a buy at 29. I assume the price has dropped on the back of the weather reducing the points expectation but I think it's gone too far the other way.

Edited February 5, 2017 by harry_rag

[harry_rag]

An enjoyable game of two halves yesterday and a profitable one. 3 out of 3 for the RP tips, my own bets would have taken the shine off but for the late hotshots play which made up at 75. I particularly enjoyed the North try. I'd given up on him just before that when he seemed to have pulled up with a hamstring injury.

See you next week!

[StevieDay1983]

Great to see your tips, @harry_rag. I'm not sure anyone saw Scotland coming out as winners so convincingly. I have been impressed with them over the past few years under Cotter but I always felt their talent pool might hold them back.

I did think England might struggle. It seemed like the France that fancies it turned up and when England weren't playing well I thought they could be humbled but they did well.

As a Welshman, I think Sunday's result papers over the cracks. I really hope Sam Davies is given a start this weekend. Dan Biggar was appalling. The root problem is Howley though. Wales will do well to get another win under his stewardship. I think Sunday is as good as it's going to get. I will post the next round of fixtures and their odds up now.

[StevieDay1983]

I think the toughest game to call here without a shadow of a doubt is France vs Scotland. Both teams played well in their opening games but I think if Scotland can get in the faces of the French then there could be a huge upset in Paris. I think France are rightly the firm favourites but Scotland cannot be underestimated. If they produce a repeat of that first half display that they did against Ireland then it could be a thrilling game.

Undoubtedly, Wales are a poor price at 2.75 to win. I can see England winning by 9-12 points at least. It's just not clicking for Wales and hasn't done for months. Still, the Millennium Stadium factor always adds an edge.

I did think Italy could beat Wales in their opening game and it was looking in the balance until the sin bin. I'd be shocked if Ireland didn't win and I think Ireland to win by 15 points could be a good shout. They are wounded animals and will be out to make amends for last weekend.

[harry_rag]

I can't claim to be an expert on the sport, just someone with a growing interest arising from the betting options it presents. My instinctive reaction, what I'd back now if I had free bets to use, would be Italy on the handicap, Wales to win and Scotland on the handicap.

I think Ireland win but not by more than 20, Scotland give a good account of themselves and stay within 7 points of France and I don't really know about Wales v England. At the prices I'd take a punt on the home win as, if Wales end up chasing the game, England may win by more than the handicap.

As usual, I'll be looking for bets in the tryscorer markets.

[WinningAdvice]

Wales vs England is an interesting match.

Placing my money on England but backing Ireland to win it all.

[StevieDay1983]

16 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I can't claim to be an expert on the sport, just someone with a growing interest arising from the betting options it presents. My instinctive reaction, what I'd back now if I had free bets to use, would be Italy on the handicap, Wales to win and Scotland on the handicap.

I think Ireland win but not by more than 20, Scotland give a good account of themselves and stay within 7 points of France and I don't really know about Wales v England. At the prices I'd take a punt on the home win as, if Wales end up chasing the game, England may win by more than the handicap.

As usual, I'll be looking for bets in the tryscorer markets.

Scotland on the handicap is certainly one I would consider. The trouble with France is that you just never know what sort of team will turn up. They are just as likely to win as they are to lose. Do you look into the player markets much? I think Johnnie May to score a try against Wales is likely. Our defence has been shambolic in phases for a while now and that's the sort of inconsistency that a player like May will take full advantage from.

[Shade34]

Just catching up...

[harry_rag]

On 2/9/2017, 11:55:53, StevieDay1983 said:

Do you look into the player markets much? I think Johnnie May to score a try against Wales is likely. Our defence has been shambolic in phases for a while now and that's the sort of inconsistency that a player like May will take full advantage from.

I certainly do! Will have a look at May but have done the Italy/Ireland game first. Not much leaping out, some games where you end up with a 6 or 7 player shortlist but I'm on 2 players here.

I've bought Gori's try minutes at 3 with Spreadex and Murray's at the generally available 18. The latter is a RP tip but, having had a look myself, I suspect I'd have been inclined to back him anyway. 6 tries in his last 14 starts is a decent return. Gori has scored in 6 of his 44 starts and isn't the worst low risk interest bet at a price I'd equate to 14/1 anytime.

SPIN seem to have overpriced Ireland's hotshots at 59-63 (25 points per Zebo, Henshaw, Earls and Kearney try) as I'd value them at around 53. I'll sleep on that one as there's obviously much more downside if they run riot than upside if they draw a blank.

Anyone else on anything in this game?

[harry_rag]

Hotshots prices look about right in the Wales/England game but have found 4 Wales players who appeal one way or another.

Webb to score a try at 5/1 with BF SportSbook
J Davies to score a try at 6/1 and a buy of his try minutes at 6, both with Spreadex
Buy Tipuric's try minutes at 5 with Spreadex
Buy Biggar's try minutes at 2 with Spreadex

For England I've gone for Nowell to score a try at 16/5 and Joseph to score a try at 7/2, both with PP, and bought Young's try minutes at 5 with SX.

I especially like the first two prices which are a point longer than typically available elsewhere and it feels wrong to be effectively offering odds against that either of those players manages a try.

Obviously the try minutes bets are at the mercy of when a try is scored but, with a bit of luck, a couple of tries should make for a profit on the game. No shortage of interest at least, all at prices that satisfy my criteria for value.

Oh, nearly forgot, Skybet go 22/1 for Joseph to score 2 or more and that's just about big enough to tempt me into a "just in case" bet.

[StevieDay1983]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Hotshots prices look about right in the Wales/England game but have found 4 Wales players who appeal one way or another.

Webb to score a try at 5/1 with BF SportSbook
J Davies to score a try at 6/1 and a buy of his try minutes at 6, both with Spreadex
Buy Tipuric's try minutes at 5 with Spreadex
Buy Biggar's try minutes at 2 with Spreadex

For England I've gone for Nowell to score a try at 16/5 and Joseph to score a try at 7/2, both with PP, and bought Young's try minutes at 5 with SX.

I especially like the first two prices which are a point longer than typically available elsewhere and it feels wrong to be effectively offering odds against that either of those players manages a try.

Obviously the try minutes bets are at the mercy of when a try is scored but, with a bit of luck, a couple of tries should make for a profit on the game. No shortage of interest at least, all at prices that satisfy my criteria for value.

Oh, nearly forgot, Skybet go 22/1 for Joseph to score 2 or more and that's just about big enough to tempt me into a "just in case" bet.

Some nice picks there mate. As kick-off approaches, I have an increasingly bad feeling that Wales are going to be on the wrong side of a hiding. The rugby crowd have been a bit over-confident this week without any real reason to back it up. I think if England can stay disciplined then they could run out winners by at least 9-12 points.

[harry_rag]

A poor week for me thus far, with just the Youngs try making a small dent in the losses. Ireland just about managed to cover the handicap!!! England unfortunately scraped another win (unfortunate in terms of my outright bets on Wales and no Grand Slam winner). Hopefully their luck runs out in one of the remaining games.

Bets on today's game to follow.

[harry_rag]

France/Scotland: I've backed Seymour and Hogg to score a try, both 7/2 with Skybet and Lads respectively, and Dunbar to score a try at 8/1 with PP

Couldn't find any appealing prices for France but these 3 look decent for the visitors (possibly with one more to follow).

Seymour and Hogg are Scotland's top tryscorers over the last couple of years with 8 tries in 18 starts and 7 in 21. Both look worth backing at better than 3/1 and I'm comfortable with backing them at prices that effectively dutch to 5/4 for either of them to score a try. Dunbar has 2 tries in his 8 starts in the same period and 6 in 20 overall (4 in 11 in 6 Nations game). You'll back worse 8/1 shots than him, win or lose today.

[harry_rag]

Hogg try enough for a reasonable profit on the day. Back for more in a couple of weeks!

[StevieDay1983]

On 12/02/2017, 20:15:59, harry_rag said:

Hogg try enough for a reasonable profit on the day. Back for more in a couple of weeks!

Great work. Let's see what the next round of fixtures brings! A two week break but with England facing Italy at home in the next batch of matches that could open up some interesting betting possibilities.

[StevieDay1983]

The Six Nations is back this weekend. I actually think Wales can beat Scotland. At the start of the tournament I wasn't hopeful Wales would beat anyone other than Italy but I think Howley has actually picked a decent squad here. Scotland appear to be panicking slightly with overhauling changes. It will be close though. I can see Scotland getting a bonus losing point.

Ireland should dispose of France. They looked greatly improved in their last game and the big man Sexton is back! Again, it will be close so I can see France earning a bonus losing point.

England are already the champions-in-waiting if you ask me. God knows what their score will be here. I can see them winning by 20-25 points at least if they get on the scoreboard early on. If Italy aren't disciplined for 80 minutes this could get messy.

@harry_rag, @plloyd88, @kranaud36, and @WinningAdvice, what do you guys think?

[harry_rag]

As usual my main focus will be tryscorer markets. Gut feelings on the games;

Scotland v Wales seems fairly assessed as being close to a coin toss, I'd plump for a Wales win by 1-10 points

I think Ireland can prevail by more than a converted try so I'd go for them to cover -7 at evens

England to win easily but perhaps not to cover the 44 point handicap at 10/11. 31-40 points at better than 4/1 would be my guess.

[Sir Puntalot]

@harry_ragGreat posts in this forum mate.  

[harry_rag]

Thanks for the kind words, one does one's best!

After my previous post I decided to back Wales by 1-12 points at 19/10 with Skybet. Hopefully reassuring to see that's the RP's recommendation for the game. You can get slightly better for the 1-10 point margin but I'll take a shade less to get the extra 2 points on side.

[LePapo]

i'm on wales side too. i had originally planned to back the scots but i think laidlaw absence will prove crucial. this can be a close match and i think scotland will feel his absence especially in the penalties. wales lost the match against england by a silly mistake but overall they played well imo although england doesn't look as strong as last year. 

19/10 on wales to win 1-12 is massive value in my opinion, my bookie offers 2.35... so i'm playing it safer on wales at 1.85

good luck

[harry_rag]

On 23/02/2017, 21:23:44, harry_rag said:

As usual my main focus will be tryscorer markets. Gut feelings on the games;

Scotland v Wales seems fairly assessed as being close to a coin toss, I'd plump for a Wales win by 1-10 points

I think Ireland can prevail by more than a converted try so I'd go for them to cover -7 at evens

Already backed my hunch for the first game via the 19/10 for 1-12 which is proving a popular selection generally. BF Sportsbook have gone 21/20 on their handicap lines for all 3 games and that's enough to tempt me in for a small bet on Ireland -7.

[harry_rag]

No time for rationale but it basically boils down to believing the prices offer some degree of an edge! If you're looking for an interest bet on the game you could do worse that one or two of these in my view.

For Scotland, Jones and Dunbar anytime, both at 13/2 with PP, buy Hardie's try minutes at 4 with Spreadex, a Scotland sub to score a try at 5/2 with Skybet

For Wales, Liam Williams to score a try at 11/4 with Lads (you may get a bit more on the Exchanges), buy Webb's try minutes at 10 with Spreadex, North to score a try and Wales to win at 4/1 with Skybet

[harry_rag]

On the later game, just gone for a buy of Zebo's try minutes at 12 with Spreadex (16 elsewhere) and have backed Earls at 5/2 with Lads (RP tip at 9/4).

Good luck with any bets and enjoy the games.

[harry_rag]

Hardly covered myself in glory yesterday, just one winner per game (Liam Williams try and Ireland -7) and I managed to forget to make sure I got matched on the former! 

Maybe publicly admitting that will reduce the risk of it happening again. I thought 11/4 was ok but noticed he was bigger on BF. I'd put up a request for 4.6 and the price hit 4.4 the last time I checked. I then forgot to look again and make sure I was on, with the inevitable consequence.

Bets on today's game to follow. My head is telling me to side with Italy though my heart begs to differ.