Non-League 24th September

[Darran]

Wrexham v Chester

Let us start with the live BT Sport game on Saturday lunchtime and a game that is a massive derby. I don’t usually like betting in derby games because I do think form goes out of the window a bit, but there is definite value in backing Chester. If I was able to I would be backing Gary Mills to be the next National League manager to lose his job, because Wrexham look a long way from being a team who will be in play-off contention this season. To be fair they are unbeaten at home and have only conceded one at the Racecourse Ground, but they haven’t been playing well and were fortunate to beat Sutton in their last home game. Last Saturday they were embarrassingly beaten by Woking and I think if they lose this match then Mills will be looking for a new job. A couple of weeks ago I put up Aldershot to beat Chester partly based on the fact Chester’s away form had been shocking. They got a good point though that afternoon and they have won both home games since. Chester go into this game with the pressure off and their players will certainly be up for it. If they can frustrate Wrexham then their fans will get on the players backs and they will be under huge pressure. I don’t think there is a great deal between these two sides either so the fact Chester are 3/1 (various) makes them a value bet.

Barrow v York

That Aldershot bet I mentioned above was the obvious bet that weekend and not surprisingly other non-league tipsters did put them up. I am fully expecting Barrow to be popular with the other non-league tipsters this weekend and at odds against they do look a fantastic bet. Even looking at the basic facts it is hard to understand how Barrow aren’t odds on here. Barrow are unbeaten in five home games having won three of them, whilst York have only picked up a point in five away games scoring four and conceding 13. That point also came on the first day of the season at Maidstone. Although their home form has been better, the fans were calling for Jackie McNamara to be sacked after losing 1-0 at home to Dover last weekend. They are probably being a little harsh as I don’t think he has the best side to work with, however they haven’t scored in three games and that has to be a worry. Barrow are quietly putting themselves into play-off contenders and they are now 6 games unbeaten. Drawing to Boreham Wood and Bromley in their last two home games weren’t the best results in the world, but with York being so low on confidence, especially up front, one goal could be enough. They also come into this match on the back of a fantastic win at Lincoln last Saturday. Barrow are 3 points off the top and York are just two points away from the relegation zone and I think the 9 point gap between the two sides is a genuine reflection of where these two sides are at right now. I make Barrow 4/6 chances to win this so make them Nap’s at 11/10 with Paddy Power and Marathon.

Eastleigh v Sutton

Eastleigh remain unbeaten since Ronnie Moore took over as boss a run of 7 games. They had defensive issues last season and they are looking a lot more solid at the back this time around. It was a bit disappointing that they only drew with Southport in their last home game, but Southport made it hard for them in what was Steve Burr’s first game in charge of them. Since then they got a very good point at Forest Green Rovers and then beat Macclesfield away last Saturday. I’m not even sure they are playing at their best as well and they should continue to improve under Moore. Sutton got a vital 3 points against Tranmere after 3 defeats. Their problem has been scoring goals and there winner was mainly down to a defensive mistake last week. Tranmere weren’t great either which helped Sutton and I think the result said more about lacklustre Tranmere than the home side. I think Eastleigh should be odds on for this so Paddy Power’s 6/5 is worth a bet.

Alfreton v Kidderminster

 A couple of weeks ago I wrote about how many goals there had been in Alfreton games of late only for them to win 1-0! In their last league game they lost to Boston by the odd goal in 5 though to revert to type. Somehow they kept a clean sheet in the FA Cup to beat Fylde last Saturday, but Fylde had numerous chances and just couldn’t score. Alfreton have also lost their best player Dan Bradley to Fylde this week. Kidderminster are in good form and have won four of their last five league games. They beat Tamworth 6-0 in their last league game and then put another 4 past them without reply in the FA Cup on Saturday. They look like they could be capable of bouncing straight back up to the National League and they look value at Marathon’s 21/20.

AFC Telford v Chorley

Kidderminster’s only defeat in their last five came surprisingly against Telford, I say surprisingly because Telford have lost their other three of their last four league games. They lost in a replay in the FA Cup to Worcester on Tuesday and to be fair it shouldn’t have even been a replay as Worcester were dominate in the first game. Chorley have started the season really strongly and have only lost once so far this term. They had a comfortable victory in the FA Cup last weekend as well and they look worth backing at 11/8 (Coral) to continue their strong run of form.

[Teodore]

Addpea, what do you think about double Barrow + Eastleigh ? Or what from this two are more safety?

Edited September 22, 2016 by Teodore

[Darran]

It is hard to say because I have backed them all in singles and that is my suggestion. It is up to you if you want want to just take a couple for a double, but I have had the same amount on Chorley, Kiddie and Eastleigh.

[bromsgrovegreen]

My shortlist comprises of barrow, dagenham, boreham wood, forest green and Macclesfield in the national league.                                               Barrow as mentioned look great value against a very average york side, bromley pull the odd good result out of the bag but dagenham at odds against appeal. Forest green just shy of evens appeal at braintree, boreham wood 11-8 at solihull appeal although Solihull have tightened up and picked up two cracking away points in their last two games both with clean sheets . Macclesfield are odds  against at guiseley, I'm tempted as I think they might nick it by the odd goal, guiseley are quite resilient though. 

Like I said just a short list and havent done anything concrete yet 

 

[bromsgrovegreen]

Aftet opposing grays midweek burgess hill are 6-4 to beat them Saturday which looks worth a bet. Burgess hill have just signed dean cox on loan from crawley as he is ineligible for them until January and he should be a cracking player at this level even if hes half as good as he was at orient. No news on whether he will start tomorrow yet but even without him hill look to have a good chance of three points considering the amount of goals that grays are shipping

 

[bromsgrovegreen]

 Dartford are 4-6 at home to concord and look very solid on recent form and I will double it with Leiston 1-3 at home to met police                                         the double pays over evens

 

[Darran]

2 hours ago, bromsgrovegreen said:

Aftet opposing grays midweek burgess hill are 6-4 to beat them Saturday which looks worth a bet. Burgess hill have just signed dean cox on loan from crawley as he is ineligible for them until January and he should be a cracking player at this level even if hes half as good as he was at orient. No news on whether he will start tomorrow yet but even without him hill look to have a good chance of three points considering the amount of goals that grays are shipping

 

Bliley can't believe he has ended up there. That is a massive signing for them especially as I expected him to end up at a bigger non league side. 

[Darran]

Just seen the full story and makes sense why he's gone there now. Still a massive signing for them and they have got very lucky. 

[Darran]

5 hours ago, bromsgrovegreen said:

My shortlist comprises of barrow, dagenham, boreham wood, forest green and Macclesfield in the national league.                                               Barrow as mentioned look great value against a very average york side, bromley pull the odd good result out of the bag but dagenham at odds against appeal. Forest green just shy of evens appeal at braintree, boreham wood 11-8 at solihull appeal although Solihull have tightened up and picked up two cracking away points in their last two games both with clean sheets . Macclesfield are odds  against at guiseley, I'm tempted as I think they might nick it by the odd goal, guiseley are quite resilient though. 

Like I said just a short list and havent done anything concrete yet 

 

I just wonder how consistent Dagenham are going to be. Yes they are top, but they have thrown some right stinkers in which is mainly down to the young side they have. I just wonder if they aren't going to be a team you want to be taking too short a price about. I was tempted with Forest Green and Boreham Wood as well especially as Wood haven't lost away, but like you say Solihull have done really well the last twice and it wouldn't surprise me if they got another point.

[sap]

I dont fancy much this weekend.Only on my list is southport

[bromsgrovegreen]

7 hours ago, addpea said:

I just wonder how consistent Dagenham are going to be. Yes they are top, but they have thrown some right stinkers in which is mainly down to the young side they have. I just wonder if they aren't going to be a team you want to be taking too short a price about. I was tempted with Forest Green and Boreham Wood as well especially as Wood haven't lost away, but like you say Solihull have done really well the last twice and it wouldn't surprise me if they got another point.

I went big on Dagenham at Chester and they lost 3-0 and then a few weeks later really fancied them at Solihull but bottled it at the last minute,hence they won 5-2! Bromley also screwed me earlier this season coming back from 2-0 down to draw with Aldershot so I'm really wary about this league at the moment as I keep picking the wrong week to back certain teams

 

[Darran]

I know exactly how you feel BG. There have been some really strange results in the National League this season and it is a horrible feeling as a punter when you back a team at the wrong time. I barely touched the league in the final month of last season and am finding myself not as confident as I used to feel on the league. At the end of the day though if you think a team is value you have to back them and have the belief that you are doing the right the thing and hope any freak results even themselves out come the end of the season. 

[bromsgrovegreen]

25 minutes ago, addpea said:

I know exactly how you feel BG. There have been some really strange results in the National League this season and it is a horrible feeling as a punter when you back a team at the wrong time. I barely touched the league in the final month of last season and am finding myself not as confident as I used to feel on the league. At the end of the day though if you think a team is value you have to back them and have the belief that you are doing the right the thing and hope any freak results even themselves out come the end of the season. 

The last few years have been so unpredictable non league wise imo and this season looks exactly the same

Even the southern and northern leagues where I used to do OK are mental this season  and I couldn't confidently predict one outcome this weekend in those leagues

[4p5p.]

Leamington to win at St Ives - The Brakes have got off to a solid start this season. I feel their forward line will be too sharp for St Ives, they attack with width and pace. Having backed them pre-season at 12/1 i have to go in again against modest opposition. Brakes have conceded only one away goal all season, so defense wise all seems good.

3pts Leamington - Evens

 

 

[Darran]

2 hours ago, bromsgrovegreen said:

The last few years have been so unpredictable non league wise imo and this season looks exactly the same

Even the southern and northern leagues where I used to do OK are mental this season  and I couldn't confidently predict one outcome this weekend in those leagues

I agree I think the last two seasons have been very tough. 2 years ago I pretty much gave up match betting in the last couple of months and the ante-post bets got me out of trouble. Last season was tough until the last couple of months where it became like a cashpoint, but that was down to a few clubs being in trouble. Happy to be doing OK so far this season, but it has been tough and for a change a few last minute goals have fallen in my favour. I still think I can make a profit from it which is why I carry on, but it certainly isn't as easy as it used to be.

[Darran]

17 hours ago, bromsgrovegreen said:

Aftet opposing grays midweek burgess hill are 6-4 to beat them Saturday which looks worth a bet. Burgess hill have just signed dean cox on loan from crawley as he is ineligible for them until January and he should be a cracking player at this level even if hes half as good as he was at orient. No news on whether he will start tomorrow yet but even without him hill look to have a good chance of three points considering the amount of goals that grays are shipping

 

Have had a closer look at this match and I do think Burgess Hill are worth a bet at Betway's 17/10. Grays have signed someone from the Essex Premier League who has been scoring plenty of goals, but it almost seems a desperate attempt and there has been quite a high turnover of players in recent weeks. Burgess Hill have been pretty solid so far this season and Dean Cox should be a cut above at this level even if he isn't fully match fit. I was kicking myself for not following BG on Tuesday in opposing Grays, but hopefully it is profitable for us tomorrow.

[sap]

do you think st albans can cause a surprise against ebbsfleet?The price is generous but ebbsfleet has been consistent at home since the start.

[Darran]

6 hours ago, sap said:

do you think st albans can cause a surprise against ebbsfleet?The price is generous but ebbsfleet has been consistent at home since the start.

Possibly and the price is on the large side for sure. 

[dawwe92]

Put together a little acca today. 

Kidderminster, Altrincham and Burgess Hill all to win and Dorchester, Weymouth and Brackley to win or draw. Pays 94/1. Lets hope for some luck today

[Darran]

But of a frustrating afternoon. Chorley played with 10 men for half the game and Kidderminster only decided to start playing once they were 3 down. Still the naps won and Eastleigh also won so basically come out level. 

[Teodore]

Eastleigh + Barrow - good job addpea !  

[4p5p.]

On 24/09/2016, 00:40:14, 4p5p. said:

On 24/09/2016, 00:40:14, 4p5p. said:

Leamington to win at St Ives - The Brakes have got off to a solid start this season. I feel their forward line will be too sharp for St Ives, they attack with width and pace. Having backed them pre-season at 12/1 i have to go in again against modest opposition. Brakes have conceded only one away goal all season, so defense wise all seems good.

3pts Leamington - Evens

 

 

 

Leamington won 5-0

 

 

Result 0-5

[bromsgrovegreen]

8 hours ago, 4p5p. said:

Result 0-5

Good tip!

[bromsgrovegreen]

Another frustrating day for me; four out of five national league games I fancied won but I didn't have the confidence to back them with hard cash and the one game in the Ryman league I got involved with let me down with a draw. that's the way it's going at the moment. Onto midweek and I have to say there's a few I fancy so maybe things are looking up!