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Fader

Twenty20 World Cup 2016

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not sure if it will go ahead of not, but two for the 2pm game 

2pts Al Amin top Bangledesh bowler 3/1 Bet365
2pts S, Al -Hasan top Bangledesh bowler 10/3 Bet365

I'll be surprised if it isn't one or the other. Both got two wickets in the previous match and with the damn conditions the ball is going to turn and that's perfect for the fast bowlers and spinners here. Hoping Ireland bat first.

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2pts India to win the T20 world cup AND Sharma top batsman 20/1 Skybet
I'm going with Sharma and India too as he is in some awesome form. I'm convinced India are going to win and if they are going to someone is going to be up there with the top batsman you'd imagine. 

4pts India to win Group 2  5/4 Skybet
India to win the group for me. Not too much reasoning needed here as you only have to look at the quality they have which makes them favourite for the title

1pt Bumrah top tournament bowler 20/1 Skybet
Ashwin at 8/1 and Bumrah at 20/1. Odds seem alittle too wide apart considering Bumrah has taken more wickets as of late in there warm-ups. 

2pts Alex Hales top England Batsman 5/2 Skybet
I'm going for Hales to be our top batsman. I think he plays the spin best and looking at our warm up games he seems to be in abit of form too.

2pts Kane Williamson top New Zealand batsman 5/2 Skybet
I'm going for Kane to be NZ top batsman. Again, good form coming into this and I only see Guptil as his main opposition for this bet to come in.

2pts H.Amla top S Africa batsman 7/2 Skybet
Form again, Amla is looking a good shout for top batsman of the tournament let alone his country so the 7/2 looks a good price to me.

2pts  A.Rashid top England Bowler 5/2 Skybet
I believe spin will be king in this tournament so I only see our top bowler being Rashid or Ali and for me, Rashid looks more likely to have the more overs.

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1pt I.Wasim top Pakistan bowler 25/1 Ladbrokes
Smashing it against Sri Lanka at the moment. 4 wickets and counting. I think this price is too big. If he performs well in the first, they will surely give him more chances. 

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3pts India to win at 1/2 with Coral

1pt Anderson to be top New Zealand batter at 8/1 with Paddy Power

1pt Rahane to be top India batter at 6/1 with Paddy Power

0.5 pt Pandya to be MOM at 22/1 with Paddy Power

India’s preparation for this series has been low-key, yet solid. They won the Asia Cup, a contest that was always their for the taking, and beat the West Indies in a warm up game last week. Here they will have to show a billion people that they are ready. They look as though they are.

Theirs is the toughest group, and New Zealand are no mugs, but there can be little doubt that the hosts will finish top and cruise through to the semi-finals.

They have Rohit Sharma in the form of his life, with a talented support cast of Kohli, Dhawan, Dhoni and Yuvraj. Sharma has been a man on a mission in limited overs cricket for over a year. He has added an arsenal of power strokes to his game, enabling him to switch seamlessly between the powerplay, and the middle overs.

Spin bowling will also be key here. The sheer number of options in the India side mean that any turning track can be exploited with 12-16 overs of tweak. That’s through quality part-timers like Yuvraj, Raina and Pandya. Then there’s Jadeja and Ashwin.

There are some chinks in the armour for the hosts, namely a less than reliable middle order, and the form of Ravi Ashwin. And if anyone will find a way of capitalising, it’s the Black Caps. In Southee and Boult they have a dangerous opening pairing that is good enough to make inroads into many line-ups. If they can dislodge Sharma and Kohli, that could be enough to swing the game their way.

Batting wise, the sides aren’t a miss-match by any means. Martin Guptill has found the key to his game this year, piling on the runs in all formats, while Kane Williamson has further cemented his reputation as the Kiwi Joe Root. In fact he’s a better multi-format player than the Yorkshireman.

Add to them the experience of Ross Taylor and the youthful strokeplay of Mitch Santner and Colin Munro, and this is far from a one-sided encounter.

It really won’t take a lot to swing this either way, and unlike some sides in this competition, I can’t see New Zealand lying down here. That said, India at home is some ask. I’m just on the side of the hosts, and I mean just.

Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/india-vs-new-zealand-tips-can-the-hosts-survive-a-tough-start--2016031402

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3pts MS Dhoni - 30 & Over Player Performance 5/6 Bet365
2pts R.Sharma or K.Williamson top Batsman of match 11/4 Skybet
0.5pts J.Bumrah Man Of The Match 20/1 Skybet
0.5pts H.Pandya Man Of The Match 22/1 Paddypower

I like the look of the Sky boost on SkyBet. I was going to take Sharma top batsman for India at 11/4 but they are offering either to be top batsman for the whole match so that seems better value to me. I think of these two Indians are going to have a good match and get a few wickets so small dabble on the MOTM here also.

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incredible, India are now teetering on the brink. Can ANYONE explain how India are 7/2 favourites still.

Have the bookies not worked out that 1 more loss and India are out. They can't get through with 2 group stage losses, because they're net run rate has been so badly damaged by today. 

So for India to win the tournament, they'll need to win 5 straight games.

They're favourites in all 5, but have about a 68% chance of beating Pakistan, 75% chance of beating Bangladesh and a 58% chance of beating Australia.

So a 29.5% chance of getting out of the group.

Then to win both the semi final and the final, you'd have to estimate they'd be about 65% favourites in a semi final if they'd won 3 straight games, and maybe 60% favourites in the final.

By those numbers, India have a 11.5% chance of winning. a 8/1 shot.

Am I missing something?

 

 

 

 

 

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4pts Windies to win at 6/5 with Ladbrokes

2pts Bravo to be top Windies batter at 15/2 with Betway

2pts Rashid to be top England bowler at 5/2 with Ladbrokes

England taking on the Windies is the epitome of two sides who can produce absolutely anything, on any given day. You might say that England are more consistent, but do they have as many match winners as the West Indies.

Darren Sammy, T20 skipper of the West Indies cricket XI is a man who is adept at bringing a side together. A player of average ability, Sammy plays the game in an admirable way, with a smile. He has improved those around him, and has helped people better themselves. Yet he is alienate in the 50-over game. Strange.

Then again, Windies cricket is odd. Players are left out, and the system seems in constant turmoil. Yet they have players at their disposal who play i every major tournament in the world. Bravo, Gayle, Braithwaite and Russell are all massive game men. In fact there are no other sides with as much all round fire power as this Windies side, they just have more scope for capitulation too.

After a confidence boosting win against a strong Aussie side, Sammy’s men will be full of confidence, and rightly so,  they take on an England that’s searching for an identity.

As a nation, we love a new ethos. A new philosophy. New players. But unless the new management team can harness the belief of the old Vaughan team, it’s hard to see us challenge. In short, England feel soft.

Bowling is ok, with Rashid set for a big tournament, alongside decent seamers.

As for Morgan’s boys, there are plenty of players who are incapable of winning a big game, despite domestic experience. Hales, Roy and Moeen are part of that problem.

The recent Windies win over Australia, albeit in a warm up, proved they have more than many give them credit for, especially with the bat, and I see them winning here.
Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/england-vs-west-indies-tips-two-hit-and-miss-sides-need-to-find-their-mojo-2016031601

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2pts I.Wasim top Pakistan bowler 6/1 Bet365
2pts U.Akmal top Pakistan batsman 5/1 Bet365

going to these two to have good games. Akmal is abit lower in the order but tends to bat well when needed and Wasim is a player I like who got 4 wickets recently against Sri Lanka

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5.5pts J.Buttler Player Performance - 30 & Over 8/11
2pts B.Stokes Top England Batsman 7/1 Bet365
1pt B.Stokes Man Of The Match 15/1 bet365

I'm taking Buttler on the performance here as he is handy with the bat and also is the wicketkeeper. Stokes I think can have a big game today and if he is indeed the top batsman then we could see him MOTM. He also bowls abit ofcourse. 

 

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Pakistan need to see the talent of Wasim. He had the best economy and only took 2 overs getting 1 wicket. Give him more overs god damn it. If he took that last over I'd of won that bet :\

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3pts Player Performance - M.Shahzad - 32 & Over 5/6 Bet365
2pts Afghanistan to beat SrI Lanka 3/1 Bet365
1pt M.Shahzad - Man Of The Match 17/1 Bet365

I'm going to take a small punt on Afghanistan today. Afghanistan have looked impressive in the qualification rounds and will come into this alittle bit more used to conditions. Sri Lanka have only won 3 times in the last 16 and are in some dire form, whilst Afghanistan come into this winning there last 5 in a row. If Afghanistan do go on to win you would expect a big performance is needed from Shahzad. Opening up in the batting order and wicketkeeper too, I will be taking him to star. 

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4pts South Africa to win at 14/19 with Unibet

2pts Morgan to be top England batter at 11/2 with Ladbrokes

2pts Amla to be top SA batsman at 3/1 with Coral

 

South Africa seem to have found a talisman in Kagiso Rabada. The young seamer hurls it down at 150 clicks, and is the epitomy of the fact that variation isn’t everything. In fact it is the hosts’ most changeable bowlers who could be their achilles heal at the World Cup. David Wiese and Chris Morris are hittable.

Morris in particular could learn from Rabada. With the ability to touch 90 mph, there is little better than a top yorker. It might be going out of the game a little, but that is only because a cutter is the easy option.

All that said, it seems that SA have the better balance to their side, without soly picking bowlers to bolster the lower order. It is that philosophy that will cost England progression from the group stage.

Two world-class leg spinners clash tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see which prevails. Both have an excellent Googly, but Rashid’s leg spinner is superior. That is not to say Tahir’s is poor, but the former Middlesex trialist is much more of a mood player. This will be a game that is based firmly on the performance of the bowling units. How these two get on could swing the whole thing.

 

South Africa find themselves in a great place batting wise. Hashim Amla has found his way into the best possible form. And a player of his class is an asset to any side. Add to that the emerging talent of Quinton de Kock and the best player in the world in ABDV, this is a huge ask for England. It’s hard to see how they can beat Faf du Plessis’ men.

 

Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/england-vs-south-africa-tips-must-win-for-england-but-can-they--2016031706

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I have to say, 1/14 on New Zealand women beating Ireland women looks a very decent price. I'd have expected it to be a lot shorter than that. (That's without shopping around, maybe it's priced even better than that in some places.) 

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As a South African I remain unconvinced. If you want  to win these Sprint contests you need to get everything right. From selections, to bowling and batting with an optimal strategy. The little mistakes in this format cost you games.

In our last game against Aus, they gave  us a proper klaap ( a klaap is Afrikaans for a good smack). We make the mistake of playing duminy and berhardien. Both are average journeyman. Duminy has been fading for years, living on a reputation from one series against Australia 6 years ago. Berhardien seems to be our most consistent cricketer. He can't bat, bowl or field. Yet, duminy is batting ahead of miller, and berhardien is ahead of Morris and wiese.

I reckon the guys in the IPL know their stuff. MILLER is a $2million player while Morris went for $1,2 mil. Both players are game breakers, which cannot be said of Duminy and Berhardien.

For SA to play to their max potential they have to go with the correct  batting order. MILLER is a match winner, and needs to bat at 5. If your top 5 all fail then tough s---t. You will prob lose in any case. You can't have a poor middle order scoring 14 runs from 18 balls. Excluding the power play (6 overs) they are using more than 20% of your innings.

 

England lost 5 limited over games to SA in a row. Only 1 of those games was a blow out . This game will be a close one probably being decided by who wins the toss. Side batting first seems to have huge advantage because of the dew, in the evening games.

For me the best bet on South Africa will be winning the 1st 6 overs, total.

With Amla, de Kock and De Villiers it's a very tough line up to beat, especially batting 1st.

Edited by neilovan
wanted to add best bet

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Keeping it simple today as I have been getting some bad luck. 

6pts Player Performance - Ronchi 26 & Over - 4/6 Bet365
5pts Australia Most Sixes - 11/10 Bet365

Seems a very small performance number for a wicketkeeper who can bat too. Ronchi came in and hit 21 from 15 against India and took a catch and 2 stumpings so in the first match against India he would of got around 70-80pts and they quite 26+. Also baffled by the six market... NZ managed 3 against India and have managed 2,3 & 3 in there warm-up Twenty20s yet Australia in there warm-ups have managed 5,7,9 & 8. In terms of a winner, Id probably edge toward Aus but I'll leave that alone.

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5 hours ago, potus said:

Australia (and me by betting on them) have got themselves involved in a bit of a car crash here. 

.... and it turns out that was just the starter. South Africa can't defend 229. I mean, come off it. How are we meant to make money if we've got Australia who can't score 100 with 10 wickets in hand and England comfortably chasing 230 with their 10 wickets.

 

Dale Steyn's first over was an absolute farce and turned what was a non-match into very much game on. So poor from someone of his experience and quality.

 

I hate seeing England win at the best of times but when it's costing me vast sums of money like it did there, the pain is almost unbearable. I'm curled up in bed struggling to come to terms with what I've just witnessed. 

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9 hours ago, Fader said:

Keeping it simple today as I have been getting some bad luck. 

6pts Player Performance - Ronchi 26 & Over - 4/6 Bet365
5pts Australia Most Sixes - 11/10 Bet365

Seems a very small performance number for a wicketkeeper who can bat too. Ronchi came in and hit 21 from 15 against India and took a catch and 2 stumpings so in the first match against India he would of got around 70-80pts and they quite 26+. Also baffled by the six market... NZ managed 3 against India and have managed 2,3 & 3 in there warm-up Twenty20s yet Australia in there warm-ups have managed 5,7,9 & 8. In terms of a winner, Id probably edge toward Aus but I'll leave that alone.

Its alright you'll get them tomorrow.... Been following some of your posts they are gud writes.... That Eng SA match was ludicrous..... Was on SA to score more than Eng in 6 overs (knew something might go south for SA as it was a must win game for Eng). SA scored 83 off first 6 and i was whoa this bet is done and dusted Eng no way can get this in even 8 let alone 6. Eng comes to bat and SA bowlers just gives them gifts after gifts after gifts.... 6 overs 89 f***ing runs.... Had a feeling SA might choke but this was a disaster... 

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1 hour ago, potus said:

.... and it turns out that was just the starter. South Africa can't defend 229. I mean, come off it. How are we meant to make money if we've got Australia who can't score 100 with 10 wickets in hand and England comfortably chasing 230 with their 10 wickets.

 

Dale Steyn's first over was an absolute farce and turned what was a non-match into very much game on. So poor from someone of his experience and quality.

 

I hate seeing England win at the best of times but when it's costing me vast sums of money like it did there, the pain is almost unbearable. I'm curled up in bed struggling to come to terms with what I've just witnessed. 

I'm loving it :D come on England :)

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