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Fader

Twenty20 World Cup 2016

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1 hour ago, Fader said:

5.5pts New Zealand -1.5 wickets / 5.5 runs to beat Pakistan 1.72 Bet365
5.5pts S.Afridi player performance - 30 & over - 1.72 Bet365
2pts U.Akmal to be top batsman for Pakistan 5/1
1pt S.Afridi to be top batsman for Pakistan 10/1

Pakistan are struggling with some injuries. Riaz got hit pretty hard on the head with a ball I hear and also Hafeez still looks like being out with his knee pain. If they are both out it's going to hurt Pakistan massively. New Zealand 2 in 2 will be high in confidence. I'll take the handicap price here. We see how bad Pakistan were without Hafeez in the match against India so I'll take a batsman in the middle region in Akmal. I'll also take a small point on Afridi top batsman as last time he pushed himself up the order against India. He also took 4 overs against them so he has every chance of making the 30 on the pperformance.

Definitely looking at the handicap myself... Will wait for the toss though.... How do you think will NZ behave batting late in the evening for the first time if they are asked to chase? 

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8 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

Definitely looking at the handicap myself... Will wait for the toss though.... How do you think will NZ behave batting late in the evening for the first time if they are asked to chase? 

I think guptil is quite key for them if he goes early there could be a scare.  Kane needs a big performance but on the whole I think they'll be okay.  You? 

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NZ do it in the end. Afridi line covered also and I still like the Akmal and Afridi top batsman bets as there was such a good chance for one to come in. The main bets come in. 

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3pts M.Shahzad 28 and over player performance (Vs England) 4/6 Bet365
2pts M.Ali top England Bowler (Vs Aghanistan) 5/1 Bet365
1pt L.Dawson top England Bower (Vs Aghanistan) 8/1 Bet365

Pitch looks good for spin going into this one. Talk of a third spinner coming into this and that man being Dawson. Either way the price on Ali looks too big. he has taken 3 wickets so far this campaign and with a pitch likely to offer spin, I'm abit mythed by this price. If Dawson doesn't come in it's a void bet so the 8/1 also looks too big. I'm also taking Shahzad to get over 27pts as really all that would take is one stumping or a catch and 10-15 in the crease. We're not bowling well enough to take lots of wickets and dominate this match.

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5 hours ago, Fader said:

I think guptil is quite key for them if he goes early there could be a scare.  Kane needs a big performance but on the whole I think they'll be okay.  You? 

Still not sure.... And now they play Bangladesh... If they win the toss they Should bat 2nd no matter what as they havecertainly qualified now for playoffs.... Their inexperienced middle order needs to understand the conditions while batting second and before the playoffs..... It is extremely difficult to chase big totals here in India unless the bowlers go full retard.... And taking that fact into consideration, and also Pakistans blunders at middle order, took New Zealand at 3.00 when Pakistan were 61/0 after 5 overs...... They didn't allow Aussies to chase 100 in last 15 overs there was little chance Pakistan could chase 120..... Big rist but great odds.... Potus I hope you take this as another example and hopefully are cruising in your betting ways...... Although I did lost the other  bet - Pakistan to score under 48.5 in first 6 overs but those losses were covered easily by the NZ victory..... 

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10 minutes ago, Fader said:

3pts M.Shahzad 28 and over player performance (Vs England) 4/6 Bet365
2pts M.Ali top England Bowler (Vs Aghanistan) 5/1 Bet365
1pt L.Dawson top England Bower (Vs Aghanistan) 8/1 Bet365

Pitch looks good for spin going into this one. Talk of a third spinner coming into this and that man being Dawson. Either way the price on Ali looks too big. he has taken 3 wickets so far this campaign and with a pitch likely to offer spin, I'm abit mythed by this price. If Dawson doesn't come in it's a void bet so the 8/1 also looks too big. I'm also taking Shahzad to get over 27pts as really all that would take is one stumping or a catch and 10-15 in the crease. We're not bowling well enough to take lots of wickets and dominate this match.

Mohammad Shahzad is in scintillating form since the Asia Cup and 28 looks mouthwatering.... And him being wicketkeeper the chances are pretty high.... Any thoughts on Adil Rashid??? He will want to make this match his hunting ground and get fired up in this WC... 

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Going to say this tp Fader here.... I am a novice better as you know from the tennis forum and I have started betting on cricket a bit more often since IND AUS tour.... Now reading your previews and reasons have given me a whole different and a much wider perspective.... I used to sway myself from other markets such as top batsman, etc.... Thanks to you Fader, I am learning new things and for that I am forever grateful :) 

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14 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

Mohammad Shahzad is in scintillating form since the Asia Cup and 28 looks mouthwatering.... And him being wicketkeeper the chances are pretty high.... Any thoughts on Adil Rashid??? He will want to make this match his hunting ground and get fired up in this WC... 

I like Rashid alot and alot will depend on the pitch but what I'm hearing is there is going to be alot of spin and so there could be 3 spinners taking turns out there. i think despite our bowling being our weak link in our team that we will take atleast 5 wickets from Afghanistan (possibly more) so I'm thinking one spinner will probably win the "top bowler" market with 2 wickets. It will be an interesting match in that respect.

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9 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

Going to say this tp Fader here.... I am a novice better as you know from the tennis forum and I have started betting on cricket a bit more often since IND AUS tour.... Now reading your previews and reasons have given me a whole different and a much wider perspective.... I used to sway myself from other markets such as top batsman, etc.... Thanks to you Fader, I am learning new things and for that I am forever grateful :) 

You're very welcome my friend.

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This is likely to be a tighter encounter than many expect, meaning that the outright betting isn’t really worth a go. It is not beyond possibility for England to slip up here, and one man who will put them under pressure is Mohammad Shahzad. He is a good bet to fire Afghanistan to the top opening partnership. Good players of spin are worth a look, with a possible 28 overs on the day going to tweakers. Shahzad and Buttler could be the destructive forces here.

The selections:

Afghanistan to have the highest opening partnership at 7/4 with Paddy Power

Shahzad to be top Afghanistan batter at 11/4 with Ladbrokes

Buttler to be top England batter at 8/1 with Ladbrokes

 

Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/england-vs-afghanistan-tips-the-minnows-are-a-real-banana-skin-2016032205

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England still favourites with the bookies after posting 142? Not a chance.

Very nice price on Afghanistan, thanks very much.

 

I hope Shahzad has a sensible bat in him? It would be very silly to come out firing as he has in their previous two games when they're only chasing 143. It would be a huge mistake for him to throw his wicket away early but that's exactly what I could see happening.

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33 minutes ago, potus said:

England still favourites with the bookies after posting 142? Not a chance.

Very nice price on Afghanistan, thanks very much.

 

I hope Shahzad has a sensible bat in him? It would be very silly to come out firing as he has in their previous two games when they're only chasing 143. It would be a huge mistake for him to throw his wicket away early but that's exactly what I could see happening.

Ok, I'm getting annoyed now. As usual, my bet has gone hopelessly wrong.

 

This is an Afghanistan side who managed to make 160 batting first against Sri Lanka and 170 chasing 210 against South Africa, so chasing 140 should be pretty comfortable for them. 

 

I can only analyse what's there, I'm getting fed up of losing money on these T20 games. 

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Potus, you need to learn to read the pitch. You could see there wasn't going to be a massive score from either on this. I wouldn't be lumping on anyone on this event anyways, one man can win a game for anyone. 

unrelated, I can't believe Afghan get 7 wickets and Shehzad is not involved in any. That's so unlucky :/

Edited by Fader

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22 minutes ago, Fader said:

Potus, you need to learn to read the pitch. You could see there wasn't going to be a massive score from either on this. I wouldn't be lumping on anyone on this event anyways, one man can win a game for anyone. 

unrelated, I can't believe Afghan get 7 wickets and Shehzad is not involved in any. That's so unlucky :/

How do you 'read the pitch' then? If you can see there isn't going to be a massive score, is there any chance you can give some tips on that in future? My first bet today WAS on England making a large score, so it would have been good to know that you could see otherwise.

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36 minutes ago, potus said:

How do you 'read the pitch' then? If you can see there isn't going to be a massive score, is there any chance you can give some tips on that in future? My first bet today WAS on England making a large score, so it would have been good to know that you could see otherwise.

well for one in this situation all the wickets were bowled or bowled and caught, not catches from big 6 attempts or 4's. You could see it was hard to get the ball away and if we could only manage such a low score than Afghanistan were certainly going to struggle. 

I believe this is the first time this pitch has been used this tournament so hard for me to know beforehand but I'll mention anything I can in the future.

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1 hour ago, potus said:

How do you 'read the pitch' then? If you can see there isn't going to be a massive score, is there any chance you can give some tips on that in future? My first bet today WAS on England making a large score, so it would have been good to know that you could see otherwise.

Potus I would recommend you to watch pre match show where the match and the conditions are previewed by experts.... But keep in mind that these experts should be experienced or retired cricketers and not any news reporters..... If you spend that hour before the match and know enough about how the two teams are performing it's enough to analyse a game and place a sound bet..... 

 

Fader unlucky for us today with player performances.... U took Shahzaad and I was rooting for Root to go 34+.... That run out was just utter rubbish there was no need to run..... And then gets two catches to make 32 amd miss out by 2.... Haha that was hilarious...... Now on to India v Bangladesh.....

 

Potus this is a tip for you.... I am thinking Virat Kohli 33 and over if India bats first.... Why you may ask.... The match is at Bangalore and its difficult again to chase big totals but batting first is decent..... But more importantly Virat plays IPL for Bangalore and hence this is like his second home so the conditions are well known to him.... Add to it the kind of form he is in.... And Bangladesh's bowling which  is not so good Kohli looks good to cover that performance total..... Gud luck mate

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Potus forget that can't chase crap I said in above comment..... Bangladesh just won the toss and chose to bowl first and the pitch report says that batting second would be great..... But later in the night, "the ball may turn" according to MS Dhoni (trust me he is really cunning when it comes to reading pitches and conditions).... So the chase might get interesting....... Anyway the gud news is India is batting first so the bet is on..... Wish yoj gud luck again :) 

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pretty crap day for me. Took England at 11/10 after the first innings but apart from that all losers. Annoying! 

Great games though and hopefully we'll see England and India both in the Semi-Finals.

Quite ironic really I forgot about the India game or Id of taken Dhoni on the performance. Typical!

Edited by Fader

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36 minutes ago, Fader said:

pretty crap day for me. Took England at 11/10 after the first innings but apart from that all losers. Annoying! 

Great games though and hopefully we'll see England and India both in the Semi-Finals.

Quite ironic really I forgot about the India game or Id of taken Dhoni on the performance. Typical!

No worries mate you'll get them tomorrow :) 

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What a match today between India and Bangladesh..... Everything was crazy out there today.... That pitch was not the pitch of Bangalore and that Indian team was certainly not the one that won Asia Cup and that certainly felt someone else batting in Virat's skin..... Everything was going down until the last 3 balls.... Hopefully we will come out stronger against Australia and the team needs to make some big improvements.... We are not winning any playoff matches playing like this...... Well I will worry about that later and right now just thank my luck for getting Kohli bet through...... Gud luck everyone see you guys tomorrow.... 

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No cricket today. What a bore. Gives me a chance to preview both matches tomorrow though. I wont be touch the outright bets on either but I don't think Australia will have it all there own way tomorrow. The fact they must win though puts me off any dabble. These are the ones I like :

2.5pts Khawaja top Austalian Batsman 12/5 Paddypower
6pts Australia (Most Sixes) 4/6 Bet365
3pts S.Afridi 31 & Over player performance 5/6 Bet365

Khawaja has really impressed me so far. In fact he is the only player in the Australia line-up that has impressed me. I never liked Australia's chances pre-tournament and I still don't. I just don't think they play spin well enough. They may make the Semi-Finals but the way they are playing they are not going to win this tournament. I do think they will get the most sixes here though. Pakistan have managed only a few sixes apart from the match against Bangladesh with weak bowling where as Aus have managed 4 and 6 in there previous two and need the win here. Afridi should again be Pakistan's main man both in the crease and in the bowling attack. 

 

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Sorry to have to bore you all with another sob story but I'm trying to learn from people who know better than me and improve my cricket betting. I'm losing so much of my money on this sport and it's really getting to me as I'm only betting on what I think are great bets but they keep going wrong. 

 

This morning, Sri Lanka women have just lost their third wicket and are 89/3 after 13 overs. Bet365 set their total runs at over/under 126.5. I think that is a complete gift, a side that have scored 89 in 78 balls to score 38 in the final 42, with seven wickets in hand? Surely that line is far too low? 

 

Anyway, I lump on and they finish on 123. Thoughts? Not wise-after-the-event thoughts, but how you would have analysed that bet at the time? Thanks.

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Potus, final overs of a Twenty20 and the womens event (with some massive variances of talent) ... you're trying to bet on sure things yet you're betting on that? you couldn't get more random if you lumped on tails on a coin toss. Just seems to me you're looking at the first thing you see and lumping on it before the market changes. 

Why are you not following the tips here that have been in profit over the past week? I appreciate you're trying to improve, but if you want to improve you have to put the time in to study. Did you know the pitch conditions? who was left to bat? there form? the bowlers left? the bowlers overs used? the importance of a win for sri lanka? the important of the other team? there is so much information to make your bet more likely to win.

Edited by Fader

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51 minutes ago, Fader said:

Potus, final overs of a Twenty20 and the womens event (with some massive variances of talent) ... you're trying to bet on sure things yet you're betting on that? you couldn't get more random if you lumped on tails on a coin toss. Just seems to me you're looking at the first thing you see and lumping on it before the market changes. 

Why are you not following the tips here that have been in profit over the past week? I appreciate you're trying to improve, but if you want to improve you have to put the time in to study. Did you know the pitch conditions? who was left to bat? there form? the bowlers left? the bowlers overs used? the importance of a win for sri lanka? the important of the other team? there is so much information to make your bet more likely to win.

Obviously I put in some analysis and research before I placed the bet. If I was just betting for the sake of it, I would bet on a coin toss as you said. I had a look at the in-running bets and that seemed around 20 runs short of where I thought it should be. They were scoring nearly 7 an over, finding plenty of boundaries. Fair enough they had just lost a wicket but they had another player out there who was on a decent score, even if she went I would still fancy 5 runs an over with all those wickets in hand a very easy ask. 

 

Yesterday you told me to read the pitch. Well, I read the number of boundaries being scored here and 89 after 13 overs to be a very decent score in the circumstances. I don't see what analysis I missed that would explain there not being 38 more runs scored in the final 7 overs? 

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