Twenty20 World Cup 2016

[potus]

1 hour ago, potus said:

I need to stop betting on cricket....

 

For the second time in a few days, South Africa don't even give my bet a chance. I backed them on the handicaps to win by more than 40 runs and after a fairly mediocre batting display, they give the bet no chance whatsoever with their first few overs of bowling. Have they learned nothing from the England game? 

South Africa putting me through huge disappointment again.

 

Can I ask some of the 'experts' on here, do any of you make money betting on cricket? If so, which markets do you look for, any tips or suggestions? It looks so easy to bet on but then teams throw in these horrific performances you wouldn't expect. South Africa for example, who have eight or nine good players shouldn't really be losing to an England team with two good players. Obviously upsets happen in any sport but they seem more of an upset often in this sport and format (Australia failing to make 100 with ten wickets, South Africa failing to defend 230 etc.) 

 

Any suggestions for markets to look out for/avoid? 

[Fader]

I'm not sure why you rate SA so much more highly than England. SA are rated 4th in world at 20/20 level and England 5th but England have played 24 matches to get that ranking whilst SA have played 32. It's a 50/50 at worst for England. England are not going to win this event but only because they have no bowling attack other than 2 decent spinners. Root is world class, Buttler and Hales are easily good enough to be here. Roy done a job last game. They are no worse than SA in my opinion.

[TheBeast]

1 hour ago, potus said:

I need to stop betting on cricket....

 

For the second time in a few days, South Africa don't even give my bet a chance. I backed them on the handicaps to win by more than 40 runs and after a fairly mediocre batting display, they give the bet no chance whatsoever with their first few overs of bowling. Have they learned nothing from the England game? 

It's not the South Africans my friend it's the Wankhede and Afghanistan's grossly underrated batsmen..... With nothing to lose they were bound to swing their bats at everything on a great Wankhede pitch..... No worries wish you all the best for next plays you are great.... 

[TheBeast]

13 minutes ago, Fader said:

I'm not sure why you rate SA so much more highly than England. SA are rated 4th in world at 20/20 level and England 5th but England have played 24 matches to get that ranking whilst SA have played 32. It's a 50/50 at worst for England. England are not going to win this event but only because they have no bowling attack other than 2 decent spinners. Root is world class, Buttler and Hales are easily good enough to be here. Roy done a job last game. They are no worse than SA in my opinion.

I never got a hang of those icc cricket rankings.... If I recall correctly, a month or two after the 2007 WT20 Pakistan were no. 1 in ICC T20 rankings..... 

[TheBeast]

34 minutes ago, potus said:

South Africa putting me through huge disappointment again.

 

Can I ask some of the 'experts' on here, do any of you make money betting on cricket? If so, which markets do you look for, any tips or suggestions? It looks so easy to bet on but then teams throw in these horrific performances you wouldn't expect. South Africa for example, who have eight or nine good players shouldn't really be losing to an England team with two good players. Obviously upsets happen in any sport but they seem more of an upset often in this sport and format (Australia failing to make 100 with ten wickets, South Africa failing to defend 230 etc.) 

 

Any suggestions for markets to look out for/avoid? 

I am no expert in betting but being an Indian and an avid cricket fan I know pretty much what would be the outcome of  a cricket match based on the tempo of a game.... The best thing about cricket betting though is the in play betting on match outcome.... Trust me the bookmakers never get the in play odds right i.e. there's always value on the underdog... For eg. consider the 2 matches which came out as a surprise

1. NZ v AUS

Australia were cruising in the match but at 68-4, it was quite obvious that odds of 2.57 were exceptionally valuable for NZ because they were in with a chance with Smith, Khwaja, Warner gone. 

 

2. Eng v SA

This match was quite a dramatic one. SA put up 229 and there and then ENG were almost out of the tournament. But, ENG put up a mammoth 89 off first 6 overs and guess the odds at that time for England - 2.37..... Obviously a team scoring @ 15 rpo in first 6 overs can chase @ 10.00 rpo fpr the rest pf the match.... 

Obviously i took both of them amd luckily won them... 

My point is  that  u will have much better chance of winning a bet if you go for in play rather than pre match bets..... 

All the best and hope your lossesdon't sway you off your mark.... 

[potus]

6 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

I am no expert in betting but being an Indian and an avid cricket fan I know pretty much what would be the outcome of  a cricket match based on the tempo of a game.... The best thing about cricket betting though is the in play betting on match outcome.... Trust me the bookmakers never get the in play odds right i.e. there's always value on the underdog... For eg. consider the 2 matches which came out as a surprise

1. NZ v AUS

Australia were cruising in the match but at 68-4, it was quite obvious that odds of 2.57 were exceptionally valuable for NZ because they were in with a chance with Smith, Khwaja, Warner gone. 

 

2. Eng v SA

This match was quite a dramatic one. SA put up 229 and there and then ENG were almost out of the tournament. But, ENG put up a mammoth 89 off first 6 overs and guess the odds at that time for England - 2.37..... Obviously a team scoring @ 15 rpo in first 6 overs can chase @ 10.00 rpo fpr the rest pf the match.... 

Obviously i took both of them amd luckily won them... 

My point is  that  u will have much better chance of winning a bet if you go for in play rather than pre match bets..... 

All the best and hope your lossesdon't sway you off your mark.... 

That may be good advice because I tend to do the opposite of you and lump on the favourites in-play.

 

So, for example, I lumped on South Africa in-play against England. 

 

Are you sure you're not just remembering the games where the favourites lost though? Do you really believe this to be a profitable long-term strategy? 

[potus]

45 minutes ago, Fader said:

I'm not sure why you rate SA so much more highly than England. SA are rated 4th in world at 20/20 level and England 5th but England have played 24 matches to get that ranking whilst SA have played 32. It's a 50/50 at worst for England. England are not going to win this event but only because they have no bowling attack other than 2 decent spinners. Root is world class, Buttler and Hales are easily good enough to be here. Roy done a job last game. They are no worse than SA in my opinion.

South Africa just beat England five matches in a row didn't they?

 

As I've said previously, South Africa (along with India, Australia, New Zealand) have a good match in them maybe three times out of four whereas England (along with West Indies and Pakistan) have a good match maybe one time out of four.

 

Also, England only have two consistently good players (Root and Buttler) whereas South Africa have many more than that, getting on for a full team's worth. 

[BigMozzyDog]

2 hours ago, potus said:

South Africa just beat England five matches in a row didn't they?

 

As I've said previously, South Africa (along with India, Australia, New Zealand) have a good match in them maybe three times out of four whereas England (along with West Indies and Pakistan) have a good match maybe one time out of four.

 

Also, England only have two consistently good players (Root and Buttler) whereas South Africa have many more than that, getting on for a full team's worth. 

My feeling is that it's worth backing teams with lots of IPL, BBL, CPL experience. They play more high pressure, high quality cricket than most.

Because the T20 format changes so quickly, backing the seemingly outside bet, in-play, produces a good return for me. South Africa with a form Steyn is a different prospect. No Morkel seems to be a mystery too. I fancied them at the start, but Wiese and Abbott are to good enough for 4 overs. The team with the best balance and most firepower is the West Indies. 

[Fader]

I can't be the only one who thought Australia were going to lose that Match they are playing in a tournament which is going to be all about spin and they just don't play spin well enough 

[TheBeast]

4 hours ago, potus said:

That may be good advice because I tend to do the opposite of you and lump on the favourites in-play.

 

So, for example, I lumped on South Africa in-play against England. 

 

Are you sure you're not just remembering the games where the favourites lost though? Do you really believe this to be a profitable long-term strategy? 

Not the underdogs every single time that's just crazy. Although I do not bet on favourites in play bcz usually in play there is too little value on favourites and cricket odds keep on fluctuating every 2-3 overs in any format. The point is going for underdogs when they are pressurising the favorites. The outcome may not be expected but with good read of the game one can certainly win more often than not. For e.g. consider the Bangladesh vs Nepal U19 WC match that took place a month or two ago may be. In that match Bangladesh were strong favourites and had to chase somewhere around 180 i believe. But Nepal bowled tremendously well and brought Bangladeshis RR below 3 in the first 25-30 overs with almost 4-5 wickets down and the required RR was well above 8 at a time..... This was when the odds were a little over 2.3 and I picked them up because certainly Bangladesh was under tremendous pressure.... Alas! One more wicket and Nepal would have broken the winning partnership and won the match but it was not to be. Surely I lost that bet but it is how it is we win some we lose some. The same thing happened with Pakistan v Bangladesh in Asia Cup where I bet on Pakistan (but I think that was a stupid decision as I was not actually watching the match and just went with the name, very very stupid) and they lost. 

The other thing is there are very few chances in cricket betting as there are only 1 or 2 matches a day in WC and at other times 1 per day mostly. And since I haven't been betting for a long time I have no certain idea how this strategy will work in long term as that is something only time will tell. 

But what I believe is that in play betting is a much safer option because we know that even the best of pitch reporters sometimes fail to read the pitch correctly, sometimes an unexpected performance may turn around the match completely and so on. And usually bookmakers are a little slow to adapt to these changes in a game. And the funny thing about cricket is that it is a very slow paced game and hence less difficult albeit trickier to read than other games like soccer etc. 

Anyway gud luck for your bets hope you win loads.

[Fader]

6pts S.Watson Player Performance - 41 + over - 4/6 Bet365
2pts A.Finch top Australia Most Runs 5/2 Skybet
I'm taking Watson on the PP this time. Watson got a wicket in his prior match and got 4 overs given to him so we have the potential for wickets in him aswell as at the crease. You'd expect Australia to win this and give a better performance here and I can't see there being too many Aus wickets. Id fancy a top batsman in the top 3 of Australia really which makes me think Finch could come into this game fresh and looking to impress. Watson being high up in the order also means if he can stay in for abit you'd expect him to make 30-50. 

[Fader]

Finch not playing today so that's a void and Watson has covered the performance already with 2 wickets and a catch

[BigMozzyDog]

New Zealand at 7/10 with Sportingbet look a massive price to beat a hit and miss Pakistan. They have more depth with the ball and more consistent performers with the bat. In Williamson and Guptill they have two batmen who come off more often than not. After two wins they look nailed on here.

Luke Ronchi can bat as high as four and offers plenty of firepower. This is a stupid price, especially with a couple of early wickets. Luke Ronchi is 35/1 to be top Kiwi batter with Paddy Power.

[Fader]

5.5pts New Zealand -1.5 wickets / 5.5 runs to beat Pakistan 1.72 Bet365
5.5pts S.Afridi player performance - 30 & over - 1.72 Bet365
2pts U.Akmal to be top batsman for Pakistan 5/1
1pt S.Afridi to be top batsman for Pakistan 10/1
Pakistan are struggling with some injuries. Riaz got hit pretty hard on the head with a ball I hear and also Hafeez still looks like being out with his knee pain. If they are both out it's going to hurt Pakistan massively. New Zealand 2 in 2 will be high in confidence. I'll take the handicap price here. We see how bad Pakistan were without Hafeez in the match against India so I'll take a batsman in the middle region in Akmal. I'll also take a small point on Afridi top batsman as last time he pushed himself up the order against India. He also took 4 overs against them so he has every chance of making the 30 on the pperformance.

[TheBeast]

21 hours ago, Fader said:

Finch not playing today so that's a void and Watson has covered the performance already with 2 wickets and a catch

Nice hit there Fader..... I took Khawaja as top Aussie batter... He was unsold at the IPL auction even though he was setting BBL ablaze.... Definitely showing the franchises their mistake...... Gud luck today

[TheBeast]

1 hour ago, Fader said:

5.5pts New Zealand -1.5 wickets / 5.5 runs to beat Pakistan 1.72 Bet365
5.5pts S.Afridi player performance - 30 & over - 1.72 Bet365
2pts U.Akmal to be top batsman for Pakistan 5/1
1pt S.Afridi to be top batsman for Pakistan 10/1
Pakistan are struggling with some injuries. Riaz got hit pretty hard on the head with a ball I hear and also Hafeez still looks like being out with his knee pain. If they are both out it's going to hurt Pakistan massively. New Zealand 2 in 2 will be high in confidence. I'll take the handicap price here. We see how bad Pakistan were without Hafeez in the match against India so I'll take a batsman in the middle region in Akmal. I'll also take a small point on Afridi top batsman as last time he pushed himself up the order against India. He also took 4 overs against them so he has every chance of making the 30 on the pperformance.

Definitely looking at the handicap myself... Will wait for the toss though.... How do you think will NZ behave batting late in the evening for the first time if they are asked to chase? 

[Fader]

8 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

Definitely looking at the handicap myself... Will wait for the toss though.... How do you think will NZ behave batting late in the evening for the first time if they are asked to chase? 

I think guptil is quite key for them if he goes early there could be a scare.  Kane needs a big performance but on the whole I think they'll be okay.  You? 

[Fader]

NZ do it in the end. Afridi line covered also and I still like the Akmal and Afridi top batsman bets as there was such a good chance for one to come in. The main bets come in. 

[Fader]

3pts M.Shahzad 28 and over player performance (Vs England) 4/6 Bet365
2pts M.Ali top England Bowler (Vs Aghanistan) 5/1 Bet365
1pt L.Dawson top England Bower (Vs Aghanistan) 8/1 Bet365
Pitch looks good for spin going into this one. Talk of a third spinner coming into this and that man being Dawson. Either way the price on Ali looks too big. he has taken 3 wickets so far this campaign and with a pitch likely to offer spin, I'm abit mythed by this price. If Dawson doesn't come in it's a void bet so the 8/1 also looks too big. I'm also taking Shahzad to get over 27pts as really all that would take is one stumping or a catch and 10-15 in the crease. We're not bowling well enough to take lots of wickets and dominate this match.

[TheBeast]

5 hours ago, Fader said:

I think guptil is quite key for them if he goes early there could be a scare.  Kane needs a big performance but on the whole I think they'll be okay.  You? 

Still not sure.... And now they play Bangladesh... If they win the toss they Should bat 2nd no matter what as they havecertainly qualified now for playoffs.... Their inexperienced middle order needs to understand the conditions while batting second and before the playoffs..... It is extremely difficult to chase big totals here in India unless the bowlers go full retard.... And taking that fact into consideration, and also Pakistans blunders at middle order, took New Zealand at 3.00 when Pakistan were 61/0 after 5 overs...... They didn't allow Aussies to chase 100 in last 15 overs there was little chance Pakistan could chase 120..... Big rist but great odds.... Potus I hope you take this as another example and hopefully are cruising in your betting ways...... Although I did lost the other  bet - Pakistan to score under 48.5 in first 6 overs but those losses were covered easily by the NZ victory..... 

[TheBeast]

10 minutes ago, Fader said:

3pts M.Shahzad 28 and over player performance (Vs England) 4/6 Bet365
2pts M.Ali top England Bowler (Vs Aghanistan) 5/1 Bet365
1pt L.Dawson top England Bower (Vs Aghanistan) 8/1 Bet365
Pitch looks good for spin going into this one. Talk of a third spinner coming into this and that man being Dawson. Either way the price on Ali looks too big. he has taken 3 wickets so far this campaign and with a pitch likely to offer spin, I'm abit mythed by this price. If Dawson doesn't come in it's a void bet so the 8/1 also looks too big. I'm also taking Shahzad to get over 27pts as really all that would take is one stumping or a catch and 10-15 in the crease. We're not bowling well enough to take lots of wickets and dominate this match.

Mohammad Shahzad is in scintillating form since the Asia Cup and 28 looks mouthwatering.... And him being wicketkeeper the chances are pretty high.... Any thoughts on Adil Rashid??? He will want to make this match his hunting ground and get fired up in this WC... 

[TheBeast]

Going to say this tp Fader here.... I am a novice better as you know from the tennis forum and I have started betting on cricket a bit more often since IND AUS tour.... Now reading your previews and reasons have given me a whole different and a much wider perspective.... I used to sway myself from other markets such as top batsman, etc.... Thanks to you Fader, I am learning new things and for that I am forever grateful  

[Fader]

14 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

Mohammad Shahzad is in scintillating form since the Asia Cup and 28 looks mouthwatering.... And him being wicketkeeper the chances are pretty high.... Any thoughts on Adil Rashid??? He will want to make this match his hunting ground and get fired up in this WC... 

I like Rashid alot and alot will depend on the pitch but what I'm hearing is there is going to be alot of spin and so there could be 3 spinners taking turns out there. i think despite our bowling being our weak link in our team that we will take atleast 5 wickets from Afghanistan (possibly more) so I'm thinking one spinner will probably win the "top bowler" market with 2 wickets. It will be an interesting match in that respect.

[Fader]

9 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

Going to say this tp Fader here.... I am a novice better as you know from the tennis forum and I have started betting on cricket a bit more often since IND AUS tour.... Now reading your previews and reasons have given me a whole different and a much wider perspective.... I used to sway myself from other markets such as top batsman, etc.... Thanks to you Fader, I am learning new things and for that I am forever grateful  

You're very welcome my friend.

[Fader]

Ali's odds of being top batsman have shot in to as low as 4/1 which is very odd. (you can get 16/1 with Betway) 

this suggests he will be opening for England I would assume...

[BigMozzyDog]

This is likely to be a tighter encounter than many expect, meaning that the outright betting isn’t really worth a go. It is not beyond possibility for England to slip up here, and one man who will put them under pressure is Mohammad Shahzad. He is a good bet to fire Afghanistan to the top opening partnership. Good players of spin are worth a look, with a possible 28 overs on the day going to tweakers. Shahzad and Buttler could be the destructive forces here.

The selections:

Afghanistan to have the highest opening partnership at 7/4 with Paddy Power

Shahzad to be top Afghanistan batter at 11/4 with Ladbrokes

Buttler to be top England batter at 8/1 with Ladbrokes

 

Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/england-vs-afghanistan-tips-the-minnows-are-a-real-banana-skin-2016032205

[potus]

England still favourites with the bookies after posting 142? Not a chance.

Very nice price on Afghanistan, thanks very much.

 

I hope Shahzad has a sensible bat in him? It would be very silly to come out firing as he has in their previous two games when they're only chasing 143. It would be a huge mistake for him to throw his wicket away early but that's exactly what I could see happening.

[potus]

33 minutes ago, potus said:

England still favourites with the bookies after posting 142? Not a chance.

Very nice price on Afghanistan, thanks very much.

 

I hope Shahzad has a sensible bat in him? It would be very silly to come out firing as he has in their previous two games when they're only chasing 143. It would be a huge mistake for him to throw his wicket away early but that's exactly what I could see happening.

Ok, I'm getting annoyed now. As usual, my bet has gone hopelessly wrong.

 

This is an Afghanistan side who managed to make 160 batting first against Sri Lanka and 170 chasing 210 against South Africa, so chasing 140 should be pretty comfortable for them. 

 

I can only analyse what's there, I'm getting fed up of losing money on these T20 games. 

[Fader]

Potus, you need to learn to read the pitch. You could see there wasn't going to be a massive score from either on this. I wouldn't be lumping on anyone on this event anyways, one man can win a game for anyone. 

unrelated, I can't believe Afghan get 7 wickets and Shehzad is not involved in any. That's so unlucky :/

Edited March 23, 2016 by Fader

[potus]

22 minutes ago, Fader said:

Potus, you need to learn to read the pitch. You could see there wasn't going to be a massive score from either on this. I wouldn't be lumping on anyone on this event anyways, one man can win a game for anyone. 

unrelated, I can't believe Afghan get 7 wickets and Shehzad is not involved in any. That's so unlucky :/

How do you 'read the pitch' then? If you can see there isn't going to be a massive score, is there any chance you can give some tips on that in future? My first bet today WAS on England making a large score, so it would have been good to know that you could see otherwise.