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Fader

Twenty20 World Cup 2016

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8 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

Its alright you'll get them tomorrow.... Been following some of your posts they are gud writes.... That Eng SA match was ludicrous..... Was on SA to score more than Eng in 6 overs (knew something might go south for SA as it was a must win game for Eng). SA scored 83 off first 6 and i was whoa this bet is done and dusted Eng no way can get this in even 8 let alone 6. Eng comes to bat and SA bowlers just gives them gifts after gifts after gifts.... 6 overs 89 f***ing runs.... Had a feeling SA might choke but this was a disaster... 

Loved that match. I was going to tip England but I just couldn't at such poor odds with that rubbish bowling line-up. That's a bad beat for you. Most runs in first 2 overs ever I believe. I'm sorry for people who lost money but I want England to do well so I think it's great. We aint winning no tournament but it would be nice to get to a Semi-final don't you think?

I didn't realise at the time how important Ronchis runs were. Stumping got him 25 so he needed 1 run to win the bet and he got 8. 1 out of 2 today like I seem to be getting everyday.

Edited by Fader

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6pts India Vs Pakistan (Player Performance - MS Dhoni 30 & Over) 4/6 Bet365
Suprised to see the same line on Dhoni again. Got a stumping, a catch and 40 runs last time out which would amount to around 75pts. Normally Id say he makes atleast a catch or a stumping and if he gets in with the bat you'd expect atleast 5-10 so I'm happy to give this a try again. India have to go all out here they will need a win and will want to win in style to improve there handicaps. 

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9 hours ago, Fader said:

6pts India Vs Pakistan (Player Performance - MS Dhoni 30 & Over) 4/6 Bet365
Suprised to see the same line on Dhoni again. Got a stumping, a catch and 40 runs last time out which would amount to around 75pts. Normally Id say he makes atleast a catch or a stumping and if he gets in with the bat you'd expect atleast 5-10 so I'm happy to give this a try again. India have to go all out here they will need a win and will want to win in style to improve there handicaps. 

This is the match my friend and I think you are right on the money with this bet.... India needs to win and beat Pakistan today and I think everybody are going to come out swinging esp. Virat and Dhoni.... But as patriotic as I am, I am also concerned about Pakistan's unbeaten record against India at Eden Gardens.... Hopefully we will come through and eventually bring the trophy back home after 9 years..... 

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India quite simply have to win, and they certainly have the players to do so, pretty comfortably. Unfortunately for them, history shows that this could be a squeaky one, but they should still have enough to get the job done. As for the player markets, if this is the low scorer that is expected, there is value in the top batsman fields in the middle-order. Equally, that makes a bowler a likely candidate for the Man of the Match gong.

 

An area of concern for the host nation will be the form of their attack leader, Ravi Ashwin. He has not looked at his deadly best, returning steady, if not mediocre figures. It’s not long ago that he was blowing teams away in the powerplay. At ll/4 to be top India bowler, he is way too short. Instead it could be an idea to look at the seam of Jasprit Bumrah. He has burst on to the scene this year, and looks capable of picking up wickets every time he bowls. He’s not quick by any stretch, but in 12 T20Is to date, he has picked up 16 wickets at an economy rate of under 6. His domestic career follows a similar pattern. Impressive stuff, and at 20/1 with Ladbrokes to be MOM, he could be worth a punt.

 

India also have Rohit Sharma in the form of his life, with a talented support cast of Kohli, Dhawan, Dhoni and Yuvraj. Sharma has been a man on a mission in limited overs cricket for over a year. He has added an arsenal of power strokes to his game, enabling him to switch seamlessly between the powerplay, and the middle overs.

Many view Sharma as the complete player, but he needs to show he can do it on the biggest stage here. At 11/4 with Coral, he’s a decent bit of value to be top India batsman.

The captain himself is also a big price, at 12/1 with Coral in the same market. Unlike many, MS Dhoni has proved himself to be one for the biggest occasions. Many of his 17 T20I fifties coming in a match winning context, finishing the job with the lower order. If something needs doing, he could be the one to do it properly in what may well be a low scoring game again.

 

The selections:

India to win at 8/15

MS Dhoni to be top India batter at 12/1

Sarfraz Ahmed to be top Pakistan batter at 9/1

 

Bumrah to be man of the match at 20/1

 

View the full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/india-vs-pakistan-tips-massive-clash-between-two-huge-rivals-2016031902

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As a South African I'm used to seeing these blow out crazy disasters.

Hansi Cronje and his match fixing (corrupt crook)

Gibbs dropping Waugh in world cup (match fixing ?)

Allan Donald's run out against Aussie (just stupidity :@)

Smith and his crew going banana's against Aussie in the West Indies (nice one Biff)

Pollock's miscalculation or lack of understanding regarding the Duckworth Lewis ( Space Cadet - surely the dumbest captain in the history of cricket).

I actually heard him on an on field interview. They were talking about pitch invaders. ie. cows, squirrels animas etc.

I swear to you he said  he was in the West Indies when a 'snake ran onto the field' . FFS honestly !!!! What, on it's hind legs, you clown !

SA being forced to play an injured Vernon Philander against NZ in WC semi (thanks  Fikile Mbulala :ok our Sports Minister, now trying to explain a 10$ million payment to FIFA)

 

SA have never won anything. They manage to blow it up every time. We have never tasted victory in any World Cup competition. EVER !

 

2 over's for 45 runs must be a world record. Faf  farting around for 4 overs at a critical stage, scoring 17 off 17 balls.

Again playing Duminy ahead of the best finisher in the game, Miller.

Never giving Aron Phangiso a legit shot at bowling. If he never plays, why drag him around all over the world !!!

I think our coach/manager (Domingo) must be one of the worst or the worst in International cricket. 

The term 'think-tank' is simply an oxymoron when it's applied to SA cricket.

AH, I feel much better getting that out of the system. It makes room for some of the good stuff :beer

Regarding Pakistan and India.

This is going to be a very close contest. Is the pressure too much for India at home ?

I think Virat Kholi is going to be top scorer. Between him, AB and Gale, surely are the three best batsmen in world Cricket

Edited by neilovan

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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

As a South African I'm used to seeing these blow out crazy disasters.

Hansi Cronje and his match fixing (corrupt crook)

Gibbs dropping Waugh in world cup (match fixing ?)

Allan Donald's run out against Aussie (just stupidity :@)

Smith and his crew going banana's against Aussie in the West Indies (nice one Biff)

Pollock's miscalculation or lack of understanding regarding the Duckworth Lewis ( Space Cadet - surely the dumbest captain in the history of cricket).

I actually heard him on an on field interview. They were talking about pitch invaders. ie. cows, squirrels animas etc.

I swear to you he said  he was in the West Indies when a 'snake ran onto the field' . FFS honestly !!!! What, on it's hind legs, you clown !

SA being forced to play an injured Vernon Philander against NZ in WC semi (thanks  Fikile Mbulala :ok our Sports Minister, now trying to explain a 10$ million payment to FIFA)

 

SA have never won anything. They manage to blow it up every time. We have never tasted victory in any World Cup competition. EVER !

 

2 over's for 45 runs must be a world record. Faf  farting around for 4 overs at a critical stage, scoring 17 off 17 balls.

Again playing Duminy ahead of the best finisher in the game, Miller.

Never giving Aron Phangiso a legit shot at bowling. If he never plays, why drag him around all over the world !!!

I think our coach/manager (Domingo) must be one of the worst or the worst in International cricket. 

The term 'think-tank' is simply an oxymoron when it's applied to SA cricket.

AH, I feel much better getting that out of the system. It makes room for some of the good stuff :beer

Regarding Pakistan and India.

This is going to be a very close contest. Is the pressure too much for India at home ?

I think Virat Kholi is going to be top scorer. Between him, AB and Gale, surely are the three best batsmen in world Cricket

I have to agree with that I knew SA usually take stupid decision but reading your post was enlightening...... Hopefully ABD will give us what we want here in India...... An IND v SA final..... Or at least a semi final ;)

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1 hour ago, TheBeast said:

I have to agree with that I knew SA usually take stupid decision but reading your post was enlightening...... Hopefully ABD will give us what we want here in India...... An IND v SA final..... Or at least a semi final ;)

Being a South African cricket supporter comes with 10 free hours of trauma counselling :):cheers

It's like that T-shirt 1 liner where the shirt say's ' BOMB DISPOSAL' on the front and something like

'if you see me running, try and catch-up' on the back !

 

Edited by neilovan

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These are two sides were mentioned in the same breath by many pundits prior to the tournament, but it is the West Indies who have shown the most so far in both warm ups and the first game. They are also blessed with more experience and greater fire-power in all departments.

It’s hard to see them not win here, and their price seems pretty fair. If they do win, there is likely to be a significant contribution from Dwayne Bravo, who is very much their go to player in the skills department, rather than brute force. He is great value as MOM at 14/1 with Stan James. If the Sri Lankans are going to challenge, they need Dilshan and Chandimal to stand up at the top. The latter is capable of a big score, and is more likely to try and accumulate in support of other players.

The bets:

West Indies to win at 4/7

Chandimal to be top Sri Lanka batsman at 7/2

Dwayne Bravo as top Windies batter at 9/1

Dwayne Bravo to be MOM at 14/1

Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/sri-lanka-vs-west-indies-tips-a-win-for-either-side-takes-them-close-to-qualification-2016032001

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I need to stop betting on cricket....

 

For the second time in a few days, South Africa don't even give my bet a chance. I backed them on the handicaps to win by more than 40 runs and after a fairly mediocre batting display, they give the bet no chance whatsoever with their first few overs of bowling. Have they learned nothing from the England game? 

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1 hour ago, potus said:

I need to stop betting on cricket....

 

For the second time in a few days, South Africa don't even give my bet a chance. I backed them on the handicaps to win by more than 40 runs and after a fairly mediocre batting display, they give the bet no chance whatsoever with their first few overs of bowling. Have they learned nothing from the England game? 

South Africa putting me through huge disappointment again.

 

Can I ask some of the 'experts' on here, do any of you make money betting on cricket? If so, which markets do you look for, any tips or suggestions? It looks so easy to bet on but then teams throw in these horrific performances you wouldn't expect. South Africa for example, who have eight or nine good players shouldn't really be losing to an England team with two good players. Obviously upsets happen in any sport but they seem more of an upset often in this sport and format (Australia failing to make 100 with ten wickets, South Africa failing to defend 230 etc.) 

 

Any suggestions for markets to look out for/avoid? 

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I'm not sure why you rate SA so much more highly than England. SA are rated 4th in world at 20/20 level and England 5th but England have played 24 matches to get that ranking whilst SA have played 32. It's a 50/50 at worst for England. England are not going to win this event but only because they have no bowling attack other than 2 decent spinners. Root is world class, Buttler and Hales are easily good enough to be here. Roy done a job last game. They are no worse than SA in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, potus said:

I need to stop betting on cricket....

 

For the second time in a few days, South Africa don't even give my bet a chance. I backed them on the handicaps to win by more than 40 runs and after a fairly mediocre batting display, they give the bet no chance whatsoever with their first few overs of bowling. Have they learned nothing from the England game? 

It's not the South Africans my friend it's the Wankhede and Afghanistan's grossly underrated batsmen..... With nothing to lose they were bound to swing their bats at everything on a great Wankhede pitch..... No worries wish you all the best for next plays you are great.... 

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13 minutes ago, Fader said:

I'm not sure why you rate SA so much more highly than England. SA are rated 4th in world at 20/20 level and England 5th but England have played 24 matches to get that ranking whilst SA have played 32. It's a 50/50 at worst for England. England are not going to win this event but only because they have no bowling attack other than 2 decent spinners. Root is world class, Buttler and Hales are easily good enough to be here. Roy done a job last game. They are no worse than SA in my opinion.

I never got a hang of those icc cricket rankings.... If I recall correctly, a month or two after the 2007 WT20 Pakistan were no. 1 in ICC T20 rankings..... 

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34 minutes ago, potus said:

South Africa putting me through huge disappointment again.

 

Can I ask some of the 'experts' on here, do any of you make money betting on cricket? If so, which markets do you look for, any tips or suggestions? It looks so easy to bet on but then teams throw in these horrific performances you wouldn't expect. South Africa for example, who have eight or nine good players shouldn't really be losing to an England team with two good players. Obviously upsets happen in any sport but they seem more of an upset often in this sport and format (Australia failing to make 100 with ten wickets, South Africa failing to defend 230 etc.) 

 

Any suggestions for markets to look out for/avoid? 

I am no expert in betting but being an Indian and an avid cricket fan I know pretty much what would be the outcome of  a cricket match based on the tempo of a game.... The best thing about cricket betting though is the in play betting on match outcome.... Trust me the bookmakers never get the in play odds right i.e. there's always value on the underdog... For eg. consider the 2 matches which came out as a surprise

1. NZ v AUS

Australia were cruising in the match but at 68-4, it was quite obvious that odds of 2.57 were exceptionally valuable for NZ because they were in with a chance with Smith, Khwaja, Warner gone. 

 

2. Eng v SA

This match was quite a dramatic one. SA put up 229 and there and then ENG were almost out of the tournament. But, ENG put up a mammoth 89 off first 6 overs and guess the odds at that time for England - 2.37..... Obviously a team scoring @ 15 rpo in first 6 overs can chase @ 10.00 rpo fpr the rest pf the match.... 

Obviously i took both of them amd luckily won them... 

My point is  that  u will have much better chance of winning a bet if you go for in play rather than pre match bets..... 

All the best and hope your lossesdon't sway you off your mark.... 

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6 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

I am no expert in betting but being an Indian and an avid cricket fan I know pretty much what would be the outcome of  a cricket match based on the tempo of a game.... The best thing about cricket betting though is the in play betting on match outcome.... Trust me the bookmakers never get the in play odds right i.e. there's always value on the underdog... For eg. consider the 2 matches which came out as a surprise

1. NZ v AUS

Australia were cruising in the match but at 68-4, it was quite obvious that odds of 2.57 were exceptionally valuable for NZ because they were in with a chance with Smith, Khwaja, Warner gone. 

 

2. Eng v SA

This match was quite a dramatic one. SA put up 229 and there and then ENG were almost out of the tournament. But, ENG put up a mammoth 89 off first 6 overs and guess the odds at that time for England - 2.37..... Obviously a team scoring @ 15 rpo in first 6 overs can chase @ 10.00 rpo fpr the rest pf the match.... 

Obviously i took both of them amd luckily won them... 

My point is  that  u will have much better chance of winning a bet if you go for in play rather than pre match bets..... 

All the best and hope your lossesdon't sway you off your mark.... 

That may be good advice because I tend to do the opposite of you and lump on the favourites in-play.

 

So, for example, I lumped on South Africa in-play against England. 

 

Are you sure you're not just remembering the games where the favourites lost though? Do you really believe this to be a profitable long-term strategy? 

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45 minutes ago, Fader said:

I'm not sure why you rate SA so much more highly than England. SA are rated 4th in world at 20/20 level and England 5th but England have played 24 matches to get that ranking whilst SA have played 32. It's a 50/50 at worst for England. England are not going to win this event but only because they have no bowling attack other than 2 decent spinners. Root is world class, Buttler and Hales are easily good enough to be here. Roy done a job last game. They are no worse than SA in my opinion.

South Africa just beat England five matches in a row didn't they?

 

As I've said previously, South Africa (along with India, Australia, New Zealand) have a good match in them maybe three times out of four whereas England (along with West Indies and Pakistan) have a good match maybe one time out of four.

 

Also, England only have two consistently good players (Root and Buttler) whereas South Africa have many more than that, getting on for a full team's worth. 

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2 hours ago, potus said:

South Africa just beat England five matches in a row didn't they?

 

As I've said previously, South Africa (along with India, Australia, New Zealand) have a good match in them maybe three times out of four whereas England (along with West Indies and Pakistan) have a good match maybe one time out of four.

 

Also, England only have two consistently good players (Root and Buttler) whereas South Africa have many more than that, getting on for a full team's worth. 

My feeling is that it's worth backing teams with lots of IPL, BBL, CPL experience. They play more high pressure, high quality cricket than most.

Because the T20 format changes so quickly, backing the seemingly outside bet, in-play, produces a good return for me. South Africa with a form Steyn is a different prospect. No Morkel seems to be a mystery too. I fancied them at the start, but Wiese and Abbott are to good enough for 4 overs. The team with the best balance and most firepower is the West Indies. 

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4 hours ago, potus said:

That may be good advice because I tend to do the opposite of you and lump on the favourites in-play.

 

So, for example, I lumped on South Africa in-play against England. 

 

Are you sure you're not just remembering the games where the favourites lost though? Do you really believe this to be a profitable long-term strategy? 

Not the underdogs every single time that's just crazy. Although I do not bet on favourites in play bcz usually in play there is too little value on favourites and cricket odds keep on fluctuating every 2-3 overs in any format. The point is going for underdogs when they are pressurising the favorites. The outcome may not be expected but with good read of the game one can certainly win more often than not. For e.g. consider the Bangladesh vs Nepal U19 WC match that took place a month or two ago may be. In that match Bangladesh were strong favourites and had to chase somewhere around 180 i believe. But Nepal bowled tremendously well and brought Bangladeshis RR below 3 in the first 25-30 overs with almost 4-5 wickets down and the required RR was well above 8 at a time..... This was when the odds were a little over 2.3 and I picked them up because certainly Bangladesh was under tremendous pressure.... Alas! One more wicket and Nepal would have broken the winning partnership and won the match but it was not to be. Surely I lost that bet but it is how it is we win some we lose some. The same thing happened with Pakistan v Bangladesh in Asia Cup where I bet on Pakistan (but I think that was a stupid decision as I was not actually watching the match and just went with the name, very very stupid) and they lost. 

The other thing is there are very few chances in cricket betting as there are only 1 or 2 matches a day in WC and at other times 1 per day mostly. And since I haven't been betting for a long time I have no certain idea how this strategy will work in long term as that is something only time will tell. 

But what I believe is that in play betting is a much safer option because we know that even the best of pitch reporters sometimes fail to read the pitch correctly, sometimes an unexpected performance may turn around the match completely and so on. And usually bookmakers are a little slow to adapt to these changes in a game. And the funny thing about cricket is that it is a very slow paced game and hence less difficult albeit trickier to read than other games like soccer etc. 

Anyway gud luck for your bets hope you win loads.

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6pts S.Watson Player Performance - 41 + over - 4/6 Bet365
2pts A.Finch top Australia Most Runs 5/2 Skybet

I'm taking Watson on the PP this time. Watson got a wicket in his prior match and got 4 overs given to him so we have the potential for wickets in him aswell as at the crease. You'd expect Australia to win this and give a better performance here and I can't see there being too many Aus wickets. Id fancy a top batsman in the top 3 of Australia really which makes me think Finch could come into this game fresh and looking to impress. Watson being high up in the order also means if he can stay in for abit you'd expect him to make 30-50. 

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New Zealand at 7/10 with Sportingbet look a massive price to beat a hit and miss Pakistan. They have more depth with the ball and more consistent performers with the bat. In Williamson and Guptill they have two batmen who come off more often than not. After two wins they look nailed on here.

Luke Ronchi can bat as high as four and offers plenty of firepower. This is a stupid price, especially with a couple of early wickets. Luke Ronchi is 35/1 to be top Kiwi batter with Paddy Power.

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5.5pts New Zealand -1.5 wickets / 5.5 runs to beat Pakistan 1.72 Bet365
5.5pts S.Afridi player performance - 30 & over - 1.72 Bet365
2pts U.Akmal to be top batsman for Pakistan 5/1
1pt S.Afridi to be top batsman for Pakistan 10/1

Pakistan are struggling with some injuries. Riaz got hit pretty hard on the head with a ball I hear and also Hafeez still looks like being out with his knee pain. If they are both out it's going to hurt Pakistan massively. New Zealand 2 in 2 will be high in confidence. I'll take the handicap price here. We see how bad Pakistan were without Hafeez in the match against India so I'll take a batsman in the middle region in Akmal. I'll also take a small point on Afridi top batsman as last time he pushed himself up the order against India. He also took 4 overs against them so he has every chance of making the 30 on the pperformance.

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21 hours ago, Fader said:

Finch not playing today so that's a void and Watson has covered the performance already with 2 wickets and a catch :)

Nice hit there Fader..... I took Khawaja as top Aussie batter... He was unsold at the IPL auction even though he was setting BBL ablaze.... Definitely showing the franchises their mistake...... Gud luck today

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