Twenty20 World Cup 2016

[Fader]

1pt I.Wasim top Pakistan bowler 25/1 Ladbrokes
Smashing it against Sri Lanka at the moment. 4 wickets and counting. I think this price is too big. If he performs well in the first, they will surely give him more chances. 

[BigMozzyDog]

3pts India to win at 1/2 with Coral

1pt Anderson to be top New Zealand batter at 8/1 with Paddy Power

1pt Rahane to be top India batter at 6/1 with Paddy Power

0.5 pt Pandya to be MOM at 22/1 with Paddy Power

India’s preparation for this series has been low-key, yet solid. They won the Asia Cup, a contest that was always their for the taking, and beat the West Indies in a warm up game last week. Here they will have to show a billion people that they are ready. They look as though they are.

Theirs is the toughest group, and New Zealand are no mugs, but there can be little doubt that the hosts will finish top and cruise through to the semi-finals.

They have Rohit Sharma in the form of his life, with a talented support cast of Kohli, Dhawan, Dhoni and Yuvraj. Sharma has been a man on a mission in limited overs cricket for over a year. He has added an arsenal of power strokes to his game, enabling him to switch seamlessly between the powerplay, and the middle overs.

Spin bowling will also be key here. The sheer number of options in the India side mean that any turning track can be exploited with 12-16 overs of tweak. That’s through quality part-timers like Yuvraj, Raina and Pandya. Then there’s Jadeja and Ashwin.

There are some chinks in the armour for the hosts, namely a less than reliable middle order, and the form of Ravi Ashwin. And if anyone will find a way of capitalising, it’s the Black Caps. In Southee and Boult they have a dangerous opening pairing that is good enough to make inroads into many line-ups. If they can dislodge Sharma and Kohli, that could be enough to swing the game their way.

Batting wise, the sides aren’t a miss-match by any means. Martin Guptill has found the key to his game this year, piling on the runs in all formats, while Kane Williamson has further cemented his reputation as the Kiwi Joe Root. In fact he’s a better multi-format player than the Yorkshireman.

Add to them the experience of Ross Taylor and the youthful strokeplay of Mitch Santner and Colin Munro, and this is far from a one-sided encounter.

It really won’t take a lot to swing this either way, and unlike some sides in this competition, I can’t see New Zealand lying down here. That said, India at home is some ask. I’m just on the side of the hosts, and I mean just.

Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/india-vs-new-zealand-tips-can-the-hosts-survive-a-tough-start--2016031402

[Fader]

3pts MS Dhoni - 30 & Over Player Performance 5/6 Bet365
2pts R.Sharma or K.Williamson top Batsman of match 11/4 Skybet
0.5pts J.Bumrah Man Of The Match 20/1 Skybet
0.5pts H.Pandya Man Of The Match 22/1 Paddypower
I like the look of the Sky boost on SkyBet. I was going to take Sharma top batsman for India at 11/4 but they are offering either to be top batsman for the whole match so that seems better value to me. I think of these two Indians are going to have a good match and get a few wickets so small dabble on the MOTM here also.

[MiddleMan]

On Betfair Australia, they are offering $1.70 on NZ to score more sixes than India.

They currently have two sixes after three overs. Is this good value?

[potus]

India, India, India. What an absolute shambles. 

[Messi10]

incredible, India are now teetering on the brink. Can ANYONE explain how India are 7/2 favourites still.

Have the bookies not worked out that 1 more loss and India are out. They can't get through with 2 group stage losses, because they're net run rate has been so badly damaged by today. 

So for India to win the tournament, they'll need to win 5 straight games.

They're favourites in all 5, but have about a 68% chance of beating Pakistan, 75% chance of beating Bangladesh and a 58% chance of beating Australia.

So a 29.5% chance of getting out of the group.

Then to win both the semi final and the final, you'd have to estimate they'd be about 65% favourites in a semi final if they'd won 3 straight games, and maybe 60% favourites in the final.

By those numbers, India have a 11.5% chance of winning. a 8/1 shot.

Am I missing something?

 

 

 

 

 

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Windies to win at 6/5 with Ladbrokes

2pts Bravo to be top Windies batter at 15/2 with Betway

2pts Rashid to be top England bowler at 5/2 with Ladbrokes

England taking on the Windies is the epitome of two sides who can produce absolutely anything, on any given day. You might say that England are more consistent, but do they have as many match winners as the West Indies.

Darren Sammy, T20 skipper of the West Indies cricket XI is a man who is adept at bringing a side together. A player of average ability, Sammy plays the game in an admirable way, with a smile. He has improved those around him, and has helped people better themselves. Yet he is alienate in the 50-over game. Strange.

Then again, Windies cricket is odd. Players are left out, and the system seems in constant turmoil. Yet they have players at their disposal who play i every major tournament in the world. Bravo, Gayle, Braithwaite and Russell are all massive game men. In fact there are no other sides with as much all round fire power as this Windies side, they just have more scope for capitulation too.

After a confidence boosting win against a strong Aussie side, Sammy’s men will be full of confidence, and rightly so,  they take on an England that’s searching for an identity.

As a nation, we love a new ethos. A new philosophy. New players. But unless the new management team can harness the belief of the old Vaughan team, it’s hard to see us challenge. In short, England feel soft.

Bowling is ok, with Rashid set for a big tournament, alongside decent seamers.

As for Morgan’s boys, there are plenty of players who are incapable of winning a big game, despite domestic experience. Hales, Roy and Moeen are part of that problem.

The recent Windies win over Australia, albeit in a warm up, proved they have more than many give them credit for, especially with the bat, and I see them winning here.
Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/england-vs-west-indies-tips-two-hit-and-miss-sides-need-to-find-their-mojo-2016031601

[Fader]

2pts I.Wasim top Pakistan bowler 6/1 Bet365
2pts U.Akmal top Pakistan batsman 5/1 Bet365
going to these two to have good games. Akmal is abit lower in the order but tends to bat well when needed and Wasim is a player I like who got 4 wickets recently against Sri Lanka

[Fader]

5.5pts J.Buttler Player Performance - 30 & Over 8/11
2pts B.Stokes Top England Batsman 7/1 Bet365
1pt B.Stokes Man Of The Match 15/1 bet365
I'm taking Buttler on the performance here as he is handy with the bat and also is the wicketkeeper. Stokes I think can have a big game today and if he is indeed the top batsman then we could see him MOTM. He also bowls abit ofcourse. 

 

[Fader]

Pakistan need to see the talent of Wasim. He had the best economy and only took 2 overs getting 1 wicket. Give him more overs god damn it. If he took that last over I'd of won that bet

[Fader]

3pts Player Performance - M.Shahzad - 32 & Over 5/6 Bet365
2pts Afghanistan to beat SrI Lanka 3/1 Bet365
1pt M.Shahzad - Man Of The Match 17/1 Bet365
I'm going to take a small punt on Afghanistan today. Afghanistan have looked impressive in the qualification rounds and will come into this alittle bit more used to conditions. Sri Lanka have only won 3 times in the last 16 and are in some dire form, whilst Afghanistan come into this winning there last 5 in a row. If Afghanistan do go on to win you would expect a big performance is needed from Shahzad. Opening up in the batting order and wicketkeeper too, I will be taking him to star. 

[syedmuddassar]

Previous champs are back in action today.

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts South Africa to win at 14/19 with Unibet

2pts Morgan to be top England batter at 11/2 with Ladbrokes

2pts Amla to be top SA batsman at 3/1 with Coral

 

South Africa seem to have found a talisman in Kagiso Rabada. The young seamer hurls it down at 150 clicks, and is the epitomy of the fact that variation isn’t everything. In fact it is the hosts’ most changeable bowlers who could be their achilles heal at the World Cup. David Wiese and Chris Morris are hittable.

Morris in particular could learn from Rabada. With the ability to touch 90 mph, there is little better than a top yorker. It might be going out of the game a little, but that is only because a cutter is the easy option.

All that said, it seems that SA have the better balance to their side, without soly picking bowlers to bolster the lower order. It is that philosophy that will cost England progression from the group stage.

Two world-class leg spinners clash tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see which prevails. Both have an excellent Googly, but Rashid’s leg spinner is superior. That is not to say Tahir’s is poor, but the former Middlesex trialist is much more of a mood player. This will be a game that is based firmly on the performance of the bowling units. How these two get on could swing the whole thing.

 

South Africa find themselves in a great place batting wise. Hashim Amla has found his way into the best possible form. And a player of his class is an asset to any side. Add to that the emerging talent of Quinton de Kock and the best player in the world in ABDV, this is a huge ask for England. It’s hard to see how they can beat Faf du Plessis’ men.

 

Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/england-vs-south-africa-tips-must-win-for-england-but-can-they--2016031706

[potus]

I have to say, 1/14 on New Zealand women beating Ireland women looks a very decent price. I'd have expected it to be a lot shorter than that. (That's without shopping around, maybe it's priced even better than that in some places.) 

[neilovan]

 

 

 

As a South African I remain unconvinced. If you want  to win these Sprint contests you need to get everything right. From selections, to bowling and batting with an optimal strategy. The little mistakes in this format cost you games.

In our last game against Aus, they gave  us a proper klaap ( a klaap is Afrikaans for a good smack). We make the mistake of playing duminy and berhardien. Both are average journeyman. Duminy has been fading for years, living on a reputation from one series against Australia 6 years ago. Berhardien seems to be our most consistent cricketer. He can't bat, bowl or field. Yet, duminy is batting ahead of miller, and berhardien is ahead of Morris and wiese.

I reckon the guys in the IPL know their stuff. MILLER is a $2million player while Morris went for $1,2 mil. Both players are game breakers, which cannot be said of Duminy and Berhardien.

For SA to play to their max potential they have to go with the correct  batting order. MILLER is a match winner, and needs to bat at 5. If your top 5 all fail then tough s---t. You will prob lose in any case. You can't have a poor middle order scoring 14 runs from 18 balls. Excluding the power play (6 overs) they are using more than 20% of your innings.

 

England lost 5 limited over games to SA in a row. Only 1 of those games was a blow out . This game will be a close one probably being decided by who wins the toss. Side batting first seems to have huge advantage because of the dew, in the evening games.

For me the best bet on South Africa will be winning the 1st 6 overs, total.

With Amla, de Kock and De Villiers it's a very tough line up to beat, especially batting 1st.

Edited March 18, 2016 by neilovan
wanted to add best bet

[Fader]

Keeping it simple today as I have been getting some bad luck. 

6pts Player Performance - Ronchi 26 & Over - 4/6 Bet365
5pts Australia Most Sixes - 11/10 Bet365
Seems a very small performance number for a wicketkeeper who can bat too. Ronchi came in and hit 21 from 15 against India and took a catch and 2 stumpings so in the first match against India he would of got around 70-80pts and they quite 26+. Also baffled by the six market... NZ managed 3 against India and have managed 2,3 & 3 in there warm-up Twenty20s yet Australia in there warm-ups have managed 5,7,9 & 8. In terms of a winner, Id probably edge toward Aus but I'll leave that alone.

[potus]

Australia (and me by betting on them) have got themselves involved in a bit of a car crash here. 

[potus]

5 hours ago, potus said:

Australia (and me by betting on them) have got themselves involved in a bit of a car crash here. 

.... and it turns out that was just the starter. South Africa can't defend 229. I mean, come off it. How are we meant to make money if we've got Australia who can't score 100 with 10 wickets in hand and England comfortably chasing 230 with their 10 wickets.

 

Dale Steyn's first over was an absolute farce and turned what was a non-match into very much game on. So poor from someone of his experience and quality.

 

I hate seeing England win at the best of times but when it's costing me vast sums of money like it did there, the pain is almost unbearable. I'm curled up in bed struggling to come to terms with what I've just witnessed. 

[TheBeast]

9 hours ago, Fader said:

Keeping it simple today as I have been getting some bad luck. 

6pts Player Performance - Ronchi 26 & Over - 4/6 Bet365
5pts Australia Most Sixes - 11/10 Bet365
Seems a very small performance number for a wicketkeeper who can bat too. Ronchi came in and hit 21 from 15 against India and took a catch and 2 stumpings so in the first match against India he would of got around 70-80pts and they quite 26+. Also baffled by the six market... NZ managed 3 against India and have managed 2,3 & 3 in there warm-up Twenty20s yet Australia in there warm-ups have managed 5,7,9 & 8. In terms of a winner, Id probably edge toward Aus but I'll leave that alone.

Its alright you'll get them tomorrow.... Been following some of your posts they are gud writes.... That Eng SA match was ludicrous..... Was on SA to score more than Eng in 6 overs (knew something might go south for SA as it was a must win game for Eng). SA scored 83 off first 6 and i was whoa this bet is done and dusted Eng no way can get this in even 8 let alone 6. Eng comes to bat and SA bowlers just gives them gifts after gifts after gifts.... 6 overs 89 f***ing runs.... Had a feeling SA might choke but this was a disaster... 

[Fader]

1 hour ago, potus said:

.... and it turns out that was just the starter. South Africa can't defend 229. I mean, come off it. How are we meant to make money if we've got Australia who can't score 100 with 10 wickets in hand and England comfortably chasing 230 with their 10 wickets.

 

Dale Steyn's first over was an absolute farce and turned what was a non-match into very much game on. So poor from someone of his experience and quality.

 

I hate seeing England win at the best of times but when it's costing me vast sums of money like it did there, the pain is almost unbearable. I'm curled up in bed struggling to come to terms with what I've just witnessed. 

I'm loving it  come on England

[Fader]

8 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

Its alright you'll get them tomorrow.... Been following some of your posts they are gud writes.... That Eng SA match was ludicrous..... Was on SA to score more than Eng in 6 overs (knew something might go south for SA as it was a must win game for Eng). SA scored 83 off first 6 and i was whoa this bet is done and dusted Eng no way can get this in even 8 let alone 6. Eng comes to bat and SA bowlers just gives them gifts after gifts after gifts.... 6 overs 89 f***ing runs.... Had a feeling SA might choke but this was a disaster... 

Loved that match. I was going to tip England but I just couldn't at such poor odds with that rubbish bowling line-up. That's a bad beat for you. Most runs in first 2 overs ever I believe. I'm sorry for people who lost money but I want England to do well so I think it's great. We aint winning no tournament but it would be nice to get to a Semi-final don't you think?

I didn't realise at the time how important Ronchis runs were. Stumping got him 25 so he needed 1 run to win the bet and he got 8. 1 out of 2 today like I seem to be getting everyday.

Edited March 18, 2016 by Fader

[Fader]

6pts India Vs Pakistan (Player Performance - MS Dhoni 30 & Over) 4/6 Bet365
Suprised to see the same line on Dhoni again. Got a stumping, a catch and 40 runs last time out which would amount to around 75pts. Normally Id say he makes atleast a catch or a stumping and if he gets in with the bat you'd expect atleast 5-10 so I'm happy to give this a try again. India have to go all out here they will need a win and will want to win in style to improve there handicaps. 

[TheBeast]

9 hours ago, Fader said:

6pts India Vs Pakistan (Player Performance - MS Dhoni 30 & Over) 4/6 Bet365
Suprised to see the same line on Dhoni again. Got a stumping, a catch and 40 runs last time out which would amount to around 75pts. Normally Id say he makes atleast a catch or a stumping and if he gets in with the bat you'd expect atleast 5-10 so I'm happy to give this a try again. India have to go all out here they will need a win and will want to win in style to improve there handicaps. 

This is the match my friend and I think you are right on the money with this bet.... India needs to win and beat Pakistan today and I think everybody are going to come out swinging esp. Virat and Dhoni.... But as patriotic as I am, I am also concerned about Pakistan's unbeaten record against India at Eden Gardens.... Hopefully we will come through and eventually bring the trophy back home after 9 years..... 

[BigMozzyDog]

India quite simply have to win, and they certainly have the players to do so, pretty comfortably. Unfortunately for them, history shows that this could be a squeaky one, but they should still have enough to get the job done. As for the player markets, if this is the low scorer that is expected, there is value in the top batsman fields in the middle-order. Equally, that makes a bowler a likely candidate for the Man of the Match gong.

 

An area of concern for the host nation will be the form of their attack leader, Ravi Ashwin. He has not looked at his deadly best, returning steady, if not mediocre figures. It’s not long ago that he was blowing teams away in the powerplay. At ll/4 to be top India bowler, he is way too short. Instead it could be an idea to look at the seam of Jasprit Bumrah. He has burst on to the scene this year, and looks capable of picking up wickets every time he bowls. He’s not quick by any stretch, but in 12 T20Is to date, he has picked up 16 wickets at an economy rate of under 6. His domestic career follows a similar pattern. Impressive stuff, and at 20/1 with Ladbrokes to be MOM, he could be worth a punt.

 

India also have Rohit Sharma in the form of his life, with a talented support cast of Kohli, Dhawan, Dhoni and Yuvraj. Sharma has been a man on a mission in limited overs cricket for over a year. He has added an arsenal of power strokes to his game, enabling him to switch seamlessly between the powerplay, and the middle overs.

Many view Sharma as the complete player, but he needs to show he can do it on the biggest stage here. At 11/4 with Coral, he’s a decent bit of value to be top India batsman.

The captain himself is also a big price, at 12/1 with Coral in the same market. Unlike many, MS Dhoni has proved himself to be one for the biggest occasions. Many of his 17 T20I fifties coming in a match winning context, finishing the job with the lower order. If something needs doing, he could be the one to do it properly in what may well be a low scoring game again.

 

The selections:

India to win at 8/15

MS Dhoni to be top India batter at 12/1

Sarfraz Ahmed to be top Pakistan batter at 9/1

 

Bumrah to be man of the match at 20/1

 

View the full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/india-vs-pakistan-tips-massive-clash-between-two-huge-rivals-2016031902

[neilovan]

As a South African I'm used to seeing these blow out crazy disasters.

Hansi Cronje and his match fixing (corrupt crook)

Gibbs dropping Waugh in world cup (match fixing ?)

Allan Donald's run out against Aussie (just stupidity )

Smith and his crew going banana's against Aussie in the West Indies (nice one Biff)

Pollock's miscalculation or lack of understanding regarding the Duckworth Lewis ( Space Cadet - surely the dumbest captain in the history of cricket).

I actually heard him on an on field interview. They were talking about pitch invaders. ie. cows, squirrels animas etc.

I swear to you he said  he was in the West Indies when a 'snake ran onto the field' . FFS honestly !!!! What, on it's hind legs, you clown !

SA being forced to play an injured Vernon Philander against NZ in WC semi (thanks  Fikile Mbulala  our Sports Minister, now trying to explain a 10$ million payment to FIFA)

 

SA have never won anything. They manage to blow it up every time. We have never tasted victory in any World Cup competition. EVER !

 

2 over's for 45 runs must be a world record. Faf  farting around for 4 overs at a critical stage, scoring 17 off 17 balls.

Again playing Duminy ahead of the best finisher in the game, Miller.

Never giving Aron Phangiso a legit shot at bowling. If he never plays, why drag him around all over the world !!!

I think our coach/manager (Domingo) must be one of the worst or the worst in International cricket. 

The term 'think-tank' is simply an oxymoron when it's applied to SA cricket.

AH, I feel much better getting that out of the system. It makes room for some of the good stuff 

Regarding Pakistan and India.

This is going to be a very close contest. Is the pressure too much for India at home ?

I think Virat Kholi is going to be top scorer. Between him, AB and Gale, surely are the three best batsmen in world Cricket

Edited March 19, 2016 by neilovan

[TheBeast]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

As a South African I'm used to seeing these blow out crazy disasters.

Hansi Cronje and his match fixing (corrupt crook)

Gibbs dropping Waugh in world cup (match fixing ?)

Allan Donald's run out against Aussie (just stupidity )

Smith and his crew going banana's against Aussie in the West Indies (nice one Biff)

Pollock's miscalculation or lack of understanding regarding the Duckworth Lewis ( Space Cadet - surely the dumbest captain in the history of cricket).

I actually heard him on an on field interview. They were talking about pitch invaders. ie. cows, squirrels animas etc.

I swear to you he said  he was in the West Indies when a 'snake ran onto the field' . FFS honestly !!!! What, on it's hind legs, you clown !

SA being forced to play an injured Vernon Philander against NZ in WC semi (thanks  Fikile Mbulala  our Sports Minister, now trying to explain a 10$ million payment to FIFA)

 

SA have never won anything. They manage to blow it up every time. We have never tasted victory in any World Cup competition. EVER !

 

2 over's for 45 runs must be a world record. Faf  farting around for 4 overs at a critical stage, scoring 17 off 17 balls.

Again playing Duminy ahead of the best finisher in the game, Miller.

Never giving Aron Phangiso a legit shot at bowling. If he never plays, why drag him around all over the world !!!

I think our coach/manager (Domingo) must be one of the worst or the worst in International cricket. 

The term 'think-tank' is simply an oxymoron when it's applied to SA cricket.

AH, I feel much better getting that out of the system. It makes room for some of the good stuff 

Regarding Pakistan and India.

This is going to be a very close contest. Is the pressure too much for India at home ?

I think Virat Kholi is going to be top scorer. Between him, AB and Gale, surely are the three best batsmen in world Cricket

I have to agree with that I knew SA usually take stupid decision but reading your post was enlightening...... Hopefully ABD will give us what we want here in India...... An IND v SA final..... Or at least a semi final

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, TheBeast said:

I have to agree with that I knew SA usually take stupid decision but reading your post was enlightening...... Hopefully ABD will give us what we want here in India...... An IND v SA final..... Or at least a semi final

Being a South African cricket supporter comes with 10 free hours of trauma counselling

It's like that T-shirt 1 liner where the shirt say's ' BOMB DISPOSAL' on the front and something like

'if you see me running, try and catch-up' on the back !

 

Edited March 19, 2016 by neilovan

[BigMozzyDog]

These are two sides were mentioned in the same breath by many pundits prior to the tournament, but it is the West Indies who have shown the most so far in both warm ups and the first game. They are also blessed with more experience and greater fire-power in all departments.

It’s hard to see them not win here, and their price seems pretty fair. If they do win, there is likely to be a significant contribution from Dwayne Bravo, who is very much their go to player in the skills department, rather than brute force. He is great value as MOM at 14/1 with Stan James. If the Sri Lankans are going to challenge, they need Dilshan and Chandimal to stand up at the top. The latter is capable of a big score, and is more likely to try and accumulate in support of other players.

The bets:

West Indies to win at 4/7

Chandimal to be top Sri Lanka batsman at 7/2

Dwayne Bravo as top Windies batter at 9/1

Dwayne Bravo to be MOM at 14/1

Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/twenty20-world-cup/sri-lanka-vs-west-indies-tips-a-win-for-either-side-takes-them-close-to-qualification-2016032001

[potus]

I need to stop betting on cricket....

 

For the second time in a few days, South Africa don't even give my bet a chance. I backed them on the handicaps to win by more than 40 runs and after a fairly mediocre batting display, they give the bet no chance whatsoever with their first few overs of bowling. Have they learned nothing from the England game? 

[Fader]

Not a great price but I'll be on West indies to beat Sri Lanka.  Only reason Sri Lanka won game one is Dilshan and he can't do it every game