Introduction to Monitoring Probability Strategy

[greenbets]

The basic concept is quite simple, succinctly explained, the longer an outcome does not happen, the closer is to occur.

 

Explanation of the basics of the system with a practical example

Ideally speaking in a toss coin the probability of getting heads or tails is 50%, this is what in the method we call Initial Probability (IP), if we make a roll and get heads, what is more likely to come out on second roll? And in the third, fourth or fifth roll? if we roll the coin five times and has appeared five times the heads, then we say that the probability of tails have a DELAY of five consecutive times.

You may think that every time you make a roll there is no connection between them, but what if I tell you that's not true, it is not possible that with that initial probability (IP) happens more than 12 times in a row the same choice?

EXPLANATION OF THE MONITORING PROBABILITY (MP)

Let's see how it works from an initial probability (IP) 50%:
In the first roll the probability is the same as the initial probability, that is, 50%
In the second, applying the formula for the calculation of the MP would be 75%
87.5 for the third
93.75 in the fourth
96.87 ...
98.43 ...
99.21 ...
When it exceeds 99.50 it gets interesting, from this point is when we would enter to bet
99.60
99.80
99.90
99.95
99.97
99.98
99.99 At this point the actual probability of success is situated in 97%

In short, there are three basic concepts

1-IP, pure chance that a result occur, for example Chelsea wins 55 percent of Matches

2-DELAY, number of consecutives delays that a result is not happening

3-MP monitoring probability, numerical relationship between IP and DELAY

 

But how you can apply this system to sports betting? Surely you be thinking that in football there are many others factors that do not correspond to pure chance, then see real data from your favorite teams:

• Chelsea wins, we see that IP is 55%, see what has been the historical high of Manchester City has been without winning (DELAY): 7 times
• Another example, over 2.5 in Chelsea matches, their IP is 58%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 6
• Manchester City score exactly 1 goal, IP is 25%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 21
• Leicester score at least one goal, IP 81%, maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened 5

 

As you can see there is a direct relationship between the initial probability (IP) and the maximum number of DELAYS that can reach, so we can get to play at the right time, knowing that the greater the MP the nearer this one result is to occur.

 

I opened a new forum post in which I will put monitorings weekly, so you can judge for yourself the validity of the system: https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/153287-challange-monitoring-probability-strategy/

Edited February 26, 2016 by greenbets

[greenbets]

How the MPS works?

The key is the relationship between any probability and the number of arrears/delays that has not happened (MP).  In any game of chance (including life), Normal is usually equilibrium, when that balance is broken we call it streak statistics, usually the higher is the initial probability of an event, the faster the streak breaks and everything returns to normality.

The system is able to relate the initial probability of something with the number of times that takes without occur,  achieving a useful approximation to determine the moment/time when the streak is going to broke

How far do you want to go?

As I mentioned in the previous article there is a relationship between the initial probability and the maximum number that can reach a statistical streak,  You can find a MP calculator in my blog, so you can see how many times can be extended in time a streak according to its initial probability until reach MP 99.99
As you see the higher IP, the faster streak is broken, the method works well from an IP at least 25-30%, lower than it takes too long until we reach MP 99.99 always starting the monitoring when MP is bigger than 99,50, although it is true that the odds will be higher, perhaps it may be worth playing 20% as minimun sometimes...
For higher IP  odds are lower, but we are confident it will quickly fulfilled, these can be exploited playing ‘live betting’ waiting until they rise.

…Soon more information about how to make the most of the strategy…

[allen29]

Do you know about "Gambler's fallacy"? It was the first thing it came to my mind when I've read your first line. 

Try to do an empirical experiment. Write a program or a spreadsheet for a random event to occur with 50% probability over a large number of trials (let's say 100.000). Label heads as 1 and tails as 0.

Next count the rolling average number of a coin landing heads, using a window of as many observations as you see fit. (just like when you compute historical averages for football data. ex: when I the rolling average for goals scored in Round 10 using a 5 period window, I take the average of goals scored during games 5-9). 

Next, create 2 groups based on rolling averages, one consisting of the of lowest 10% averages and the other of highest 90% averages. Now take summary statistics of these two groups.

If your hypothesis, " the longer an outcome does not happen, the closer is to occur" holds then you would expect to see a significantly higher number of heads in the first group (where heads did not occur for a long time).

If you manage to support your hypothesis without breaking any rules, then everything we know about independent probabilities is false. If not, you have fallen for the gambler's fallacy. Here's a video about it.

Edited March 1, 2016 by allen29

[greenbets]

I have a database now of more than 100 teams, multiplied by 137 posible bets, and the relationship between IP and maximun number of delays that can reach is fullfilled 99% of the cases.

moreover, when the delay makes the MP exceed 99.99 (very very high streak) you have a COUNTER-STREAK that balance the statistics in the following matches...

anyway I oppened a challange to demostrate the validity of the system that I hope you to follow. as I mentioned the key is the MP, let me illustrate to you with an example:

Barcelona is 34 consecutives games unbeaten, it's breaking his historic high from the last 100 years, so you must think is going to lose soon..., but if you calculate its MP, you can see this:
IP: 10.54% (loses 10.54% of his matches)
DELAY: 34
MP: 97.97
as you can see his MP is not even above 99.50.. and with this IP is going to extend too many times until reach it (use the MP calculator of my blog to see it). Besides, we never play with IP lower than 20-25%
so, although "Barcelona loses" is surpassing its historic high we wouldn't play it...

[MPLouis]

On 2/26/2016, 10:54:56, greenbets said:

You may think that every time you make a roll there is no connection between them, but what if I tell you that's not true, it is not possible that with that initial probability (IP) happens more than 12 times in a row the same choice?

Are you sure about this?

[greenbets]

2 minutes ago, MPLouis said:

Are you sure about this?

for a IP =>50% maximun 14 times 99% of the time

[Momus]

Hi Greenbets,

Would you please let me know where to find your blog and its calculator?

 

[De Graaf]

I think you are trying to measure degrees of standard deviation... Does this makes sense to you? 

[greenbets]

well, I going to put a monitoring that fits very well with our discussion:

EVEN HT2
RENNES+OPPONENT
IP
51,11
Delay
9
MP
99,92
HISTORIC HIGH
9

As you can see IP is very near 50%, even half time 2, both team goals..this case is very similar to a toss coin..

my forecast: it's going to fulfill before next 4 matches

MOMUS: you can find my blog in google: MPSbets or monitoring probability strategy

[harry_rag]

Can you be clearer on what the selections are, many of your posts are cryptic to say the least. Is this one an even number of goals in the 2nd half? That will probably happen in the next 4 matches for most teams, regardless of how often it's happened recently!

[greenbets]

4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Can you be clearer on what the selections are, many of your posts are cryptic to say the least. Is this one an even number of goals in the 2nd half? That will probably happen in the next 4 matches for most teams, regardless of how often it's happened recently!

it's a pick for french first division team Rennes, it means that total goals in half time 2 going to be even

[greenbets]

another one of the same nature:

ODD HT
PARIS SAINT GERMAIN+OPPONENT
IP
45,33
Delay
10
MP
99,87
HISTORIC HIGH
10

this time odd in first half time, total goals. it's surpussing its historic high, going to happen before next five matches.

so, next 4 opponents are: Saint Etienne, Montepellier, Chelsea and Troyes

[greenbets]

8 hours ago, greenbets said:

another one of the same nature:

ODD HT
PARIS SAINT GERMAIN+OPPONENT
IP
45,33
Delay
10
MP
99,87
HISTORIC HIGH
10

this time odd in first half time, total goals. it's surpussing its historic high, going to happen before next five matches.

so, next 4 opponents are: Saint Etienne, Montepellier, Chelsea and Troyes

this one green at first time...

 but..Thats not all, another green one at first time IN THE SAME MATCH, this time in second half! (NG in second half time)

https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/153287-challange-monitoring-probability-strategy/

[iroquois]

hi,

i bet every week in the euromillions, and cant win...with your systems how many hears i have to wait?

what you say is bullshit. Never, never a robability is measured by the delays, never!

[greenbets]

9 hours ago, iroquois said:

hi,

i bet every week in the euromillions, and cant win...with your systems how many hears i have to wait?

what you say is bullshit. Never, never a robability is measured by the delays, never!

for euromillions a couple of millions of times.. for any other game where the initial probability would be higher 20-25% use the MP calculator there is in my blog :-)

[harry_rag]

I must say I share Iroquois' doubts about the viability of this as a selection method and whether it would outperform the same approach applied to games picked at random or ones where the event had just happened. It feels like odds on shots are being flagged up and we're being told they'll probably land in the next 4 matches!

More than anything though, I don't feel this belongs in the systems and strategy board given the absence of any odds or stakes being quoted (check the rules for posting in here). How are we meant to have any grasp of the long term performance of the strategy in the absence of, in betting terms, the only numbers that matter! (Stakes, returns, profit/loss and yield.)

[greenbets]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

I must say I share Iroquois' doubts about the viability of this as a selection method and whether it would outperform the same approach applied to games picked at random or ones where the event had just happened. It feels like odds on shots are being flagged up and we're being told they'll probably land in the next 4 matches!

More than anything though, I don't feel this belongs in the systems and strategy board given the absence of any odds or stakes being quoted (check the rules for posting in here). How are we meant to have any grasp of the long term performance of the strategy in the absence of, in betting terms, the only numbers that matter! (Stakes, returns, profit/loss and yield.)

well, I'm just introducing the system, what I can say it's that odds are normaly related to IP, others odds are usually constant, for example even and odd are usually around 2.

for IP 20-25% usually are >4, going down until IP 50%,where are around 2, but it depends also on the type of bet.  for IP higher than 70-75%,... we have more accurate and fulfill sooner but odds are very low, these are the picks I recommend playing "live betting", what odds are in live betting? it depends on circunstances, but for example, if the monitoring is "x team is going to score" and in minute 80 still has not done, then odds will be quite high, over 2,3,4,5...

[moggis]

This is my all time favourite gambling related thread!

 

Nice one.

[greenbets]

On ‎02‎/‎03‎/‎2016‎ ‎3‎:‎20‎:‎14, greenbets said:

well, I going to put a monitoring that fits very well with our discussion:

EVEN HT2
RENNES+OPPONENT
IP
51,11
Delay
9
MP
99,92
HISTORIC HIGH
9

As you can see IP is very near 50%, even half time 2, both team goals..this case is very similar to a toss coin..

my forecast: it's going to fulfill before next 4 matches

MOMUS: you can find my blog in google: MPSbets or monitoring probability strategy

fulfilled at 4th

so far these has been the results for my picks about even and odd with their respective odds:

-RENNES - EVEN HT2 , total goals fulfilled at 4th 1,7

-PARIS SAINT GERMAIN ODD HT Green at first time! 2,2

-Hertha Berlin ODD HT2. total goals Green at first time! 2,1

-TOTTENHAM EVEN HT. Total goals Green at first time! 1,7

-EVEN HT - SAMPDORIA Green at first time! 1,75

so with these I think you can start drawing conclusions.. I think it's clear :-)

[greenbets]

another green at first time in Even and Odd bets, VERONA EVEN HT..

It's clear that the old man were using Monitoring Probability Strategy! :-D

[MPLouis]

On 04/04/2016, 01:19:36, greenbets said:

fulfilled at 4th

so far these has been the results for my picks about even and odd with their respective odds:

-RENNES - EVEN HT2 , total goals fulfilled at 4th 1,7

-PARIS SAINT GERMAIN ODD HT Green at first time! 2,2

-Hertha Berlin ODD HT2. total goals Green at first time! 2,1

-TOTTENHAM EVEN HT. Total goals Green at first time! 1,7

-EVEN HT - SAMPDORIA Green at first time! 1,75

so with these I think you can start drawing conclusions.. I think it's clear :-)

greenb - are you sure you're not being selective with your results? I find it too hard to check the details, but it's unusual for any system to only have winners.

[tycobb665]

When he writes fulfilled at 4th it means that he lost three times and then won the fourth. If you only get 1.7 odds that's a pretty big loss.

[greenbets]

7 hours ago, MPLouis said:

greenb - are you sure you're not being selective with your results? I find it too hard to check the details, but it's unusual for any system to only have winners.

it's hard to see the results? they're in my post.. please explain yourself because I can't understand you..

[greenbets]

6 hours ago, tycobb665 said:

When he writes fulfilled at 4th it means that he lost three times and then won the fourth. If you only get 1.7 odds that's a pretty big loss.

It depends, because you're thinking I'm doing martingale for that kind of odds..

[MPLouis]

Just now, greenbets said:

it's hard to see the results? they're in my post.. please explain yourself because I can't understand you..

No, I mean I can't understand your whole system.

[greenbets]

11 hours ago, MPLouis said:

No, I mean I can't understand your whole system.

Ok, I know that maybe because of my broken english I don't express myself as good as I wish, but I'm going to try again...

From MP 99,50 to MP 99,99 fulfils 97% of all cases, of those that surpass MP 99,99 most of them fulfills the next time.. how can you take advantage of this FACT? you have a post in my blog called "Six ways to take advantage of Monitoring Probability Strategy" where I describe the differents approach to take advantage of the system.

The system works based on approximations, we can know when a result is near to outcome based on its Probability (what we call initial probability: IP) and the number of times that result is not happening (DELAY), the relation between them is what we call Monitoring Probability (MP)

when I post a pick I also put this other information: "Historic High", what have been the maximun delay in the hole stats. As you can see a lot of them fulfills when are on their Historical high of delay, at the maximun number in its history.. anyway, some of them can surpass its historical high of delays, that's why I say that what matters is its MP, because MP is what reveals us how many times can extend until outcome/fulfill.

about the accuracy of the system: Depends mainly on the IP, the higher the best, anyway you can see how many greens at first time I'm getting in picks that have medium IP (40-60%)..

I wish that with all this you have a little more clear idea about MPS... anyway, ask and I will answer

 

[tycobb665]

On 2016-04-12 12:06:21, greenbets said:

From MP 99,50 to MP 99,99 fulfils 97% of all cases, of those that surpass MP 99,99 most of them fulfills the next time.. how can you take advantage of this FACT?

Ok, enough with the bullshit. Could you provide some evidence for this fact that goes against all established statistical theory? If your home made assumptions were true no casinos would be able to make a profit. Why are you wasting your time here instead of playing the roulette?

[greenbets]

On ‎13‎/‎04‎/‎2016‎ ‎17‎:‎51‎:‎36, tycobb665 said:

Ok, enough with the bullshit. Could you provide some evidence for this fact that goes against all established statistical theory? If your home made assumptions were true no casinos would be able to make a profit. Why are you wasting your time here instead of playing the roulette?

because in roulette I would have to wait dozens or even hundreds of times till I have a streak I can take advantage of...

I'm using it in football, I'm not getting rich but making an interesting profit  

[greenbets]

another green at first in even and odd bets with odds 2, 6/7 green at first time!:

-RENNES - EVEN HT2 , total goals fulfilled at 4th 1,7

-PARIS SAINT GERMAIN ODD HT Green at first time! 2,2

-Hertha Berlin ODD HT2. total goals Green at first time! 2,1

-TOTTENHAM EVEN HT. Total goals Green at first time! 1,7

-EVEN HT - SAMPDORIA Green at first time! 1,75

-VERONA EVEN HT Green at first time! 1,8

-LAS PALMAS ODD HT2 Green at first time!  2

[sor1n]

Could explain how do you calculate MP, what's the formula?

 

Thank you!