Challange: Monitoring Probability Strategy

[greenbets]

Hi everyone

You have an Intro of the system here: https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/153286-introduction-to-monitoring-probability-strategy/

In this post I will put picks to demonstrate the validity of the system:

 

This time we have a team of the Premier, Southampton, has had a run of six consecutive games in which their rivals have not scored a goal, with an IP 63.60% and 6 DELAYS, the MP is located in 99.91. Quite high so it has to happen quickly.
PICK: their opponents score at least one goal
next opponents are Chelsea, Bournemouth and Sunderland

 

On this time Arsenal, the premier team carrying two consecutive games without scoring, with very high IP, 83.40% and 2 DELAYS, his MP is located in 99.54. the odds is not the best in the world but sure will occur at most in the next two games, for these cases with such low odds it is interesting to play live betting
PICK: Arsenal score at least one goal

 

Another pick for this week is Aston Villa, 6 consecutives times NG, his IP is 54.70. MP is located on 99,61. this time his odds will be close to 2 or higher
PICK: Both teams will score (GG)

 

[harry_rag]

Thanks for taking the time to post this and it's interesting enough (if challenging at this time of night) but, if you're going to post it in here you need to post staking and odds so you can actually measure the success or otherwise of the strategy. You can't claim the results after the event. Let's say the immediate bets posted here are as follows:

Chelsea to score at 4/11

Arsenal to score at 1/3

Stoke/Villa btts at 13/10

So, are we just backing these to level stakes? ("to demonstrate the validity of the system")

[greenbets]

All green at first time!

tomorrow I will post new monitoring picks and more information about how the system works
POSTSCRIPT: Southampton's opponent (Chelsea) scored at minute 75, so if you played live betting you would have quite high odds

[greenbets]

 

UNDER 2,5 HT2
IP
87,61
Delay
2
MP
99,81
HISTORIC HIGH
2

Under 2,5 in second half, goals of both teams
This is of those that fulfill at first time, obviosly you can only play it in the live, waiting until the odds increases

 

MORE GOALS SUNDERLAND'S OPPONENT: DRAW
SUNDERLAND'S OPPONENT SCOREs SAME NUMBER OF GOAL IN BOTH HALVES
IP
43,66
Delay
14
MP
99,98
HISTORIC HIGH
14

 

We keep adding monitorings, this time the MP is very high. Nevertheless, due to its IP could be extended two or three times, if you want to play it plan your bankroll.

 

...soon more information about how the system works, how to make the most of it...

you can find more info and a tools in my blog...

[greenbets]

 

VILLARREAL'S OPPONENT SCORES HT2: YES
IP
45,83
Delay
11
MP
99,94
HISTORIC HIGH
11

Villarreal opponent score at least one goal in second half time, its MP is 99,94. for reaching 99.99 can extend till 4 times. so, It's going to fulfill before next five matches. I put it now because I think is going to happens before that
next matches: Celta de vigo, Las Palmas, Bayern Leverkusen, Sevilla and Bayern again.

 

VALENCIA'S OPPONENT SCORES HT: YES
IP
53,78
Delay
7
MP
99,79
HISTORIC HIGH
12

another one from LA LIGA (spanish first division) this time with Valencia's opponent scores half time 1, just to say that it's not going to surpass its historic high record, so make your own calculations..
next opponents are: Malaga, Atletico Madrid, Athletic Bilbao, Levante and Athletico Bilbao again

 

DOUBLE CHANCE GETAFE WINS OR DRAW
IP
55,63
Delay
7
MP
99,85
HISTORIC HIGH
7

nothing to say about this monitoring, just that can extend until next five matches before happens.
Next opponents are: Sevilla, Barcelona, Eibar, Rayo Vallecano and Villarreal
first three and Villarreal are powerful opponents, so the odds will be fine

[greenbets]

 

BOTH SCORE HT2: NO
NG HALF TIME 2
IP
75,87
Delay
6
MP
99,99
HISTORIC HIGH
6

another pick from french ligue 1, NG in second half time, can extend two times, so next two opponents are: Paris Saint Germain and Angers

[greenbets]

8 hours ago, greenbets said:

 

BOTH SCORE HT2: NO
NG HALF TIME 2
IP
75,87
Delay
6
MP
99,99
HISTORIC HIGH
6

another pick from french ligue 1, NG in second half time, can extend two times, so next two opponents are: Paris Saint Germain and Angers

green at first time, what makes it interesting is that I also fullfilled at first time odd number of goals in the first half for this match. you can see it in the other post: https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/153286-introduction-to-monitoring-probability-strategy/

 So two greens at first time in the same match!

Edited March 2, 2016 by greenbets

[greenbets]

green at first time:

Valencia's opponent score first half

[greenbets]

Stoke city's pick was also green at first time

[greenbets]

OVER 3,5
BASTIA+OPPONENT
IP
25,48
Delay
24
MP
99,94
HISTORIC HIGH
24

French league 1, total goals
Today I’m going to show you a pick that have quite low IP, if you have studied a little bit the Monitoring Probability Strategy you'll know that can extend until MP 99,99.(use the MP Calculator there is in my blog: MPSbets) so to reach that can extend until next 8 matches, but I think is going to fulfill before that...
you can do 2 things: wait until MP is higher, or plan your bankroll to play it for next 8-9 opponents
I have looked odds and for its first match again Lorient is 4.5, in next matches will be also around that.
Next opponents are: Lorient, Nantes, Lille, Bordeaux, Marseille, Toulouse, Saint Etienne and Ajaccio Gfco

BOTH SCORE HT: NO
NG HALF TIME 1
IP
84,41
Delay
3
MP
99,94
HISTORIC HIGH
3

Another pick for french ligue 1 Guingamp
odds will be awful but whit this IP is going to fullfill before next three matches, this is for playing  "live betting" if odds increases.
Next 2 opponents are: Lyon and Saint Etienne

 

DEPORTIVO CORUÑA WINS
IP
36,03
Delay
13
MP
99,81
HISTORIC HIGH
14

Team from La Liga, Deportivo Coruña, on one of the worst streak of its history, According to Monitoring Probability Stratety is going to break in the next 9 matches, but I put it now because I think is not going to last so long.
next opponents: Malaga, Atletico Madrid, Levante, Celta Vigo, Las Palmas, Sevilla, Barcelona, Eibar and Getafe

DOUBLE CHANCE ARSENAL WINS OR DRAW
IP
77,29
Delay
3
MP
99,73
HISTORIC HIGH
3

going to fulfill before three matches
next opponents are: Tottenham and Hull city

[greenbets]

double chance Getafe and Arsenal Green at first time

Edited March 12, 2016 by greenbets

[greenbets]

 

OVER 2,5 HT2
FC KOLN+OPPONENT. HALF TIME 2
IP
21,60
Delay
26
MP
99,86
HISTORIC HIGH
26

Another pick that can extended to more than 10 times (use the MP calculator from my blog), but the odds is very high, 5.5 for its next match, so if you have enough bankroll can start to follow from right now, if not wait until MP is higher
Next opponents are: Hannover, Bayern, hoffenheim, Bayer Leverkusen....

ODD HT2
Hertha Berlin+OPPONENT
IP
47,21
Delay
11
MP
99,95
HISTORIC HIGH
11

Odd half time 2, total goals.
A monitoring that can extend until next 4 matches.
Next Opponents are: Schalke 04, Ingolstadt, Borussia Monchengladbach and Hannover 96

[MPLouis]

Any chance of a step by step 'idiot's guide' to your idea Greenbets, maybe with a real life example worked through? I'm having trouble understanding it at the moment.

[greenbets]

On ‎12‎/‎03‎/‎2016‎ ‎20‎:‎39‎:‎38, MPLouis said:

Any chance of a step by step 'idiot's guide' to your idea Greenbets, maybe with a real life example worked through? I'm having trouble understanding it at the moment.

well, I have explain the system in the post of Introduction and there is the same article in my blog written with less typos...

what I explained  the system can do is to get an usefull aproximation when a result is going to outcome/occur/happens... with what we call MP (Monitoring Probability) we can measure the approximate time when a statistical streak will break. MP depends on the "probability" or "Initial Probability" and the number of delays/arrears without happen. I explained that from MP 99,50 to 99,99 we will win 97-98% of time, only 2-3% of all cases studied exceeded mp 99,99, and of those, only 0,2% exceeded MP 99,999

when I post a pick, I put this info:

Type of bet, for example ODD HT2, Hertha Berlin+OPPONENT , this means: there will be odd in the second half time, Hertha Berlin is the team for the "following or monitoring" and I write +OPPONENT to mean that are the both teams goals, or what is the same: Total Goals..

IP means Initial Probability, or probability, in this example Hertha Berlin in second half has 44,21% chance/probability that is odd

Delay: number of times is not happening

MP: This the indicator that will point out when we start thinking about entering bet, Remember, we start from 99,50..

Historic High: I put this only as expositive data, what matters is the MP

ODD HT2
Hertha Berlin+OPPONENT
IP
47,21
Delay
11
MP
99,95
HISTORIC HIGH
11

Well, with all this we can calculate how many times can extend untill reaching MP 99,99. , in this example I "predicted" next 4 matches, but it fulfilled at first time, as usual for this kind of probability and type of bet when is around 10-11 delays...

 

[greenbets]

EVEN HT
TOTTENHAM+OPPONENT
IP
56,69
Delay
9
MP
99,98
HISTORIC HIGH
9

Even in first half time, total goals
can extend untill next 3 matches
Next opponents: Bournemouth, Liverpool and Manchester United

 

NORWICH WINS
IP
41,69
Delay
11
MP
99,85
HISTORIC HIGH
11

I post this pick to show one more way to take advantage of the strategy, Norwich will win before next 7 games, so my recommendation is that you play it only if you believe you will win, because one playing way is lean on the system, but betting based on your soccer knowledge, intuition, rational facts...
Next opponents: West Bromwich, Newcastle United, Crystal Palace, Sunderland etc.

[greenbets]

On ‎19‎/‎03‎/‎2016‎ ‎2‎:‎44‎:‎22, greenbets said:

EVEN HT
TOTTENHAM+OPPONENT
IP
56,69
Delay
9
MP
99,98
HISTORIC HIGH
9

Even in first half time, total goals
can extend untill next 3 matches
Next opponents: Bournemouth, Liverpool and Manchester United

 

NORWICH WINS
IP
41,69
Delay
11
MP
99,85
HISTORIC HIGH
11

I post this pick to show one more way to take advantage of the strategy, Norwich will win before next 7 games, so my recommendation is that you play it only if you believe you will win, because one playing way is lean on the system, but betting based on your soccer knowledge, intuition, rational facts...
Next opponents: West Bromwich, Newcastle United, Crystal Palace, Sunderland etc.

Both green at first time!

odds were 1,70 for tottenham and 3,70 for norwich

[nk1c]

On 19.03.2016 03:44:22, greenbets said:

EVEN HT
TOTTENHAM+OPPONENT
IP
56,69
Delay
9
MP
99,98
HISTORIC HIGH
9

Even in first half time, total goals
can extend untill next 3 matches
Next opponents: Bournemouth, Liverpool and Manchester United

 

NORWICH WINS
IP
41,69
Delay
11
MP
99,85
HISTORIC HIGH
11

I post this pick to show one more way to take advantage of the strategy, Norwich will win before next 7 games, so my recommendation is that you play it only if you believe you will win, because one playing way is lean on the system, but betting based on your soccer knowledge, intuition, rational facts...
Next opponents: West Bromwich, Newcastle United, Crystal Palace, Sunderland etc.

 

 as well as at Norwich turned IP 41.69?

[greenbets]

45 minutes ago, nk1c said:

 

 as well as at Norwich turned IP 41.69?

I don't understand you very well, if you're asking me if Norwich have IP 41,69 I would tell you YES

Don't know if you are asking me about that, some people have ask me about IP thinking that comes from its last season, but you need at least its last 100-200 matches to get the Initial Probability...

[nk1c]

3 hours ago, greenbets said:

Я не розумію вас дуже добре, якщо ви питаєте мене, якщо Норвіч IP 41,69 Я хотів би вам сказати ТАК

Не знаю, якщо ви питаєте мене про те, що деякі люди запитують мене про IP мислення, який приходить зі свого минулого сезону, але ви повинні по крайней мере, його останні 100-200 матчів, щоб отримати початкову Імовірність ...

    Thank you

[greenbets]

 

DOUBLE CHANCE ASTON VILLA WINS OR DRAW
IP
60,06
Delay
6
MP
99,84
HISTORIC HIGH
6

For those who still haven't learn how the system works: Aston Villa have a 60,06 of probability that wins or draw, Have lost its last 6 matches, so we have a delay of 6 consecutives times that the result doesn't happens, what give us an MP 99,84...

For reaching MP 99,99 it can extend until next five matches, but will probably fulfilled before that.
As first opponent is Chelsea, then it could be advisable wait and bet the next opponent, even wait for Southampton match... but who knows, maybe it fulfills at first time...

Next Opponents are: Chelsea, Bournemouth, Manchester, Southampton and Watford

[greenbets]

 

MANCHESTER CITY SCORES: YES
IP
84,50
Delay
3
MP
99,94
HISTORIC HIGH
3

Manchester City has 3 consecutive times not scoring, with very high IP is going to happens in the next two matches, this is a Monitoring for try to play it in "live betting" if in the second half Manchester still has not scored and odds are >2 or close to that.

Next Opponents: Bournemouth and PSG

 

 

I have also an over 1,5 that can extend 3 matches:

OVER 1,5
MANCHESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP
79,53
Delay
3
MP
99,82
HISTORIC HIGH
3

[greenbets]

 

DOUBLE CHANCE TROYES WINS OR DRAW
IP
64,13
Delay
5
MP
99,79
HISTORIC HIGH
6

It's going to fullfill before next six opponents...
So Next five Opponents are: Angers, Saint Etienne, Reims, Montpellier and Bordeaux.

[greenbets]

EVEN HT
SAMPDORIA+OPPONENT
IP
58,82
Delay
5
MP
99,51
HISTORIC HIGH
5

Even on first half, total goals.
It can extend until next 6 matches, but I post it now because is on its Historic High
Next Opponents: Fiorentina, Udinese, AC Milan, Sassuolo, Lazio and Palermo

[greenbets]

On ‎01‎/‎04‎/‎2016‎ ‎13‎:‎55‎:‎02, greenbets said:

EVEN HT
SAMPDORIA+OPPONENT
IP
58,82
Delay
5
MP
99,51
HISTORIC HIGH
5

Even on first half, total goals.
It can extend until next 6 matches, but I post it now because is on its Historic High
Next Opponents: Fiorentina, Udinese, AC Milan, Sassuolo, Lazio and Palermo

Green at fist time!

[greenbets]

On ‎30‎/‎03‎/‎2016‎ ‎13‎:‎36‎:‎58, greenbets said:

 

MANCHESTER CITY SCORES: YES
IP
84,50
Delay
3
MP
99,94
HISTORIC HIGH
3

Manchester City has 3 consecutive times not scoring, with very high IP is going to happens in the next two matches, this is a Monitoring for try to play it in "live betting" if in the second half Manchester still has not scored and odds are >2 or close to that.

Next Opponents: Bournemouth and PSG

 

 

I have also an over 1,5 that can extend 3 matches:

OVER 1,5
MANCHESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP
79,53
Delay
3
MP
99,82
HISTORIC HIGH
3

Both Green at fist time!

[greenbets]

I have posted more than 20 picks, they are enough so that you begin to draw conclusions.
So far I have showed you three different types of Monitorings according to their IP:

High IP: >75-80%: mainly to try to play them in live betting, usually fulfills at first time

Medium IP 40-60%: Monitorings that can extend to 5-6 matches starting at MP >99,85. with odds that vary from 1,5 to around 3, sometimes even more as in Norwich wins that was 3,7

Low IP: 20-35%: Monitorings that can extend quite more than Medium ones, but with odds >4


And these has been the results with their respective odds:

-Southampton's opponents score at least one goal Green at first time! 1,36
-Arsenal score at least one goal Green at first time! 1,33 I recommended to play it in live betting, and arsenal didn't score until minute 77 so odds was quite higher than 1,33
-Aston Villa - Both teams will score (GG) Green at first time! 2,3
-Stoke UNDER 2,5 HT2 - total goals Green at first time! low* Monitoring to try to play in live betting
-SUNDERLAND'S OPPONENT SCOREs SAME NUMBER OF GOAL IN BOTH HALVES fulfilled at 4th 2
-VILLARREAL'S OPPONENT SCORES HT2: YES fulfilled at 4th ? around 2
-VALENCIA'S OPPONENT SCORES HT: YES Green at first time! 2,7
-DOUBLE CHANCE GETAFE WINS OR DRAW Green at first time! 1,8
-Saint Etienne BOTH SCORE HT2: NO Green at first time! low* Monitoring to try to play in live betting
-RENNES - EVEN HT2 , total goals fulfilled at 4th 1,7
-PARIS SAINT GERMAIN ODD HT Green at first time! 2,2
-BASTIA OVER 3,5 on play 4,75 Monitoring with very low IP, it can extend more, but odds are higher
-Guingamp NG HALF TIME 1 Fulfilled at 2nd ?
-DEPORTIVO CORUÑA WINS Fulfilled at 3rd 1,98
-DOUBLE CHANCE ARSENAL WINS OR DRAW Green at first time! 1,5
-FC KOLN - OVER 2,5 HT2 . Total goals on play 4,6 Monitoring with very low IP, it can extend more, but odds are higher
-Hertha Berlin ODD HT2. total goals Green at first time! 2,1
-TOTTENHAM EVEN HT. Total goals Green at first time! 1,7
-NORWICH WINS Green at first time! 3,7
-DOUBLE CHANCE TROYES WINS OR DRAW on play X
-DOUBLE CHANCE ASTON VILLA WINS OR DRAW on play X
-MANCHESTER CITY SCORES: YES Green at first time! 1,2* Monitoring to try to play in live betting
-MANCHESTER CITY OVER 1,5 Green at first time! 1,3
-EVEN HT - SAMPDORIA Green at first time! 1,75

I have also a green at first with odds 1,6 but it doesn't count because I only post it in my blog..

[greenbets]

Hi everyone!

These are the Monitorings for this week:

 

 

LEICESTER CITY'S OPPONENT SCORES: YES
IP
69,77
Delay
4
MP
99,75
HISTORIC HIGH
4

Leicester city's opponent will score at least one goal
It can extend 4 matches.


We have also an over 1,5 that can extend 3 matches:

 

OVER 1,5
LEICESTER CITY+OPPONENT
IP
76,45
Delay
4
MP
99,93
HISTORIC HIGH
4

Next opponents: Sunderland, Westham, Swansea and Manchester United

--------------------------

OVER 2,5
MANCHESTER UNITED+OPPONENT
IP
56,94
Delay
7
MP
99,88
HISTORIC HIGH
7

Over 2,5 in Manchester United's match, total goals
It's on its historic high. Anyway, can extend till 5 matches
Next Opponents: Tottenham, Westham, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Westham again

-----------------------

GUINGAMP SCORES HT: NO
IP
59,30
Delay
7
MP
99,92
HISTORIC HIGH
7

It's on its historic high, but can extend five matches
Next opponents: PSG, Rennes, Caen, Monaco and Lille

-------------------------

EVEN HT
VERONA+OPPONENT
IP
56,85
Delay
8
MP
99,95
HISTORIC HIGH
10

even in first half, both team goals
can extend 4 matches
next opponents: Napoli, Frosinone, Empoli and AC Milan

---------------------

EIBAR'S OPPONENT SCORES HT: NO
FIRST HALF
IP
66,08
Delay
7
MP
99,98
HISTORIC HIGH
7

A monitoring that is going to fulfill in the next three matches
Next Opponents: Real Madrid, Real Sociedad and Valencia

 

[greenbets]

Hi everybody!

this have been the results this week with their odds:

EVEN HT - VERONA+OPPONENT Green at first time! 1,8

GUINGAMP SCORES HT: NO Green at first time! 1,57

OVER 2,5 - MANCHESTER+OPPONENT Green at first time! 2,1

OVER 1,5 - LEICESTER +OPPONENTGreen at first time! 1,3

 

this week have also fullfilled at 6th the Monitoring OVER 3,5 in Bastia match with 4,33 odds, very  interesting to show you Monitorings with low IP that can extend more but with quite high odds.

[tycobb665]

If you have to bet 6 times in order to get 4.33 odds, that's a loss of -1.67. What's so interesting about that?

[greenbets]

6 hours ago, tycobb665 said:

If you have to bet 6 times in order to get 4.33 odds, that's a loss of -1.67. What's so interesting about that?

it depends on what you want, if you had played without MPS sure you've lost, because with that IP can be extended more than 30 times without occur, the approach that gives MPS is very useful, in my blog you have an article about how to exploit the method, including such odds