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** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

Monthly Naps Comp 11 Oct Sunday


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1540 goodwood - rosies premiere 20/1 bet365

 

Rosies Premiere has only won 3 races in 16 runs but trainer Ivory has some interesting stats over the course of 730 starts: higher average of win SP and a positive ROI 10% career, 43% for the last 100.  Only Gallagher has better numbers regarding these stats in this race and the big odds of 20/1 makes me hope there could be value in this bet.

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2.45 Chepstow : Beat Of Burden 11/8 Skybet/PP

Really looking forward to seeing Beast Of Burden over fences and looks to have found a nice race to start his chasing career.

Last time we saw him he was a slight disappointment i suppose when well beaten in the Neptune at the Festival but before that was very impressive when winning twice very easily.

Stays this trip and the ground should be ok although a little softer would have been ideal. 

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Curragh 4.05 - Ted Veale e/w @ 16/1 Bet365

Ted Veale has been running well in some top class races this year after finishing 3rd in a big flat handicap at Galway before a really good 3rd in the ultra competitive Galway Hurdle just days later. He's clearly in the form of his life now rated 147 over hurdles and there's still plenty of scope off a mark of 93 I feel. He was 1.5L behind Western Boy on his penultimate start but with a 7lb swing in the weights plus an extra 7lbs taken off by Donagh Meyler mean it will take a mighty performance from the McManus horse on quicker ground to confirm the form. There's also no reason why Sea Pride who's nearly half the price should be able to reverse the form from Listowel over this further distance. Surprised Ted Veale is such a big price when you look at some of the horses at the top of the market.

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Chep 3.55 - Present View - win at 7/2 bog wm hill

Handicap chase

My selection looked an exciting prospect last season and went off favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Ran OK finished 3rd of 18 beaten 2 lengths. The ground was against him that day as they feel he's a better horse on better ground which he gets today

Ran well on seasonal debut last season so not worried about him needing a run

My main worry is that they're using this as a prep for this years Paddy Power and he might not be given a hard ride.

 

 

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4.05 Curragh : Silver Concorde @ 13/2 betvictor win thanks

Silver Concorde.....from D K Weld yard the 7yo has been successful at 1m 6f and 2m on yielding ground; has also won two NH flat races one of which was 2014 Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival and has started his hurdle career as well ,

He back on flat and distance will not be a problem in his two season after the summer time he's started off with a win when fresh and is looking to make it three from three today as he's not ran since July ,

Pat Smullen is in saddle today and his only other time on horse was last year at this time when he brought him home at Navan 2m todays distance

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3.05 Goodwood: Class 4 Nursery, 7f

Lightly raced Alabaaly only makes his second start in this company after showing some decent promise in three maiden races. First time blinkers lid him up the last time and he tired badly towards the end, yet finished 3rd nonetheless. Headgear has been dropped, he's 3lb down in the mark and has been gelded in the meantime - a promising combination which should see him in much better light today.

Alabaaly @ 10/1 Betfred

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Getting in early with my selection for Monday 12th. Badly need a confidence restoring winner to kick my title challenge belatedly into contention, I'm torn between the inform Maurice Barnes trained Apache Pilot in the 4-10 at Sedgefield which already looks to be of interest to some as the price is dropping as I type, but I'm going to go with the Rose Dobbin trained Attention Please in the 2-40 at Sedgefield, who shaped well on his reappearance at Kelso last month. 1 pt win 7/1 Paddypower please.....

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