Copa America 2015

[Woodgate]

Colombia-Peru looks like a close game. I have made a few bets for the game, here are the bets. Falcao to score anytime odds 2,90 two units on the bet. Colombia to win 1,68 X Two units on the bet Ballon to get booked odds 3,05 X Two units Lobaton to get booked odds 2,3 X two units

[harry_rag]

Colombia-Peru looks like a close game. I have made a few bets for the game, here are the bets. Falcao to score anytime odds 2,90 two units on the bet. Colombia to win 1,68 X Two units on the bet Ballon to get booked odds 3,05 X Two units Lobaton to get booked odds 2,3 X two units

Well done on the bookings bets. Firms have been slow to price today's games up with only 1 spread firm having prices on the late game so far and not many fixeds odds. That said, I've still found what looks like a decent bet. Brazil v Venezuela: >55 bookings points at 7/5 and >65 at 11/4, both with SJ The real value for me is on the >65 bet (I was in the course of taking 13/5 when it was re-offered at 11/4!) so I'm staking the >55 as a saver, i.e. stake split in a ratio of 5 points on that and 7 on the bigger price. That makes 60 or 65 "no bet" and >65 pays around 3.19. Based on the spread expectation of around 54 points I'd make the "true" odds around 2.33 and 3.33 for edges of around 3.2% and 12.5%. Hopefully, given the Neymar situation, Venezuela will scent blood and Brazil will be trying a little too hard.

[Woodgate]

It ended with 8 units played and 10,7 return meaning a 2,7 units in profit. Hopefully somebody joined the bets.

[Woodgate]

Have made a few bets for the Brazil-Venezuela match as well, they are. Seijas to get booked odds 3,2 X 2 units Vizcarrondo to get booked odds 3,2 X 2 units Dani Alves to get booked odds 3,75 X 2 units Tunez to get booked odds 3,65 X 2 units

[Woodgate]

The late game i made four bets and 8 units played. Two out four bets won which meant 13,7 in return and 5,7 units profit. Made 8 bets today here in the forum and made a profit of 8,4 units. Hopefully somebody joined? Will post more bets next round if there is anybody interested, let me know.

[harry_rag]

I'm interested so please keep posting your picks. A mention of the bookie involved would help. I put up requests on those last 4 but didn't get matched. I only know of one bookie quoting prices in this comp. Some idea of your rationale for picking these would be nice, just a quick summary of your approach even, if not for each individual pick. (E.g. purely stats v price or do you consider the match up between winger and full back etc.). Cheers.

[MPLouis]

Some idea of your rationale for picking these would be nice' date=' just a quick summary of your approach even, if not for each individual pick. (E.g. purely stats v price or do you consider the match up between winger and full back etc.). Cheers.[/quote'] Always better with reasoning :ok

[McNasara]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 618] [TR] Thursday 25 June 2015 Home Draw Away [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Chile v Uruguay (00:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.82[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.82[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]5.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] Friday 26 June 2015 Home Draw Away [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bolivia v Peru (00:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.95[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] Saturday 27 June 2015 Home Draw Away [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Argentina v Colombia (00:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Brazil v Paraguay (22:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]6[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Woodgate]

I'm interested so please keep posting your picks. A mention of the bookie involved would help. I put up requests on those last 4 but didn't get matched. I only know of one bookie quoting prices in this comp. Some idea of your rationale for picking these would be nice, just a quick summary of your approach even, if not for each individual pick. (E.g. purely stats v price or do you consider the match up between winger and full back etc.). Cheers.

Thats correct, I forgot all about that because of the time. For the late game yesterday I found the odds on Unibet and Tipico.

[kevshat]

Quarter final 1 preview: 4pts Chile to beat Uruguay 3/4 BetVictor Chile do give sides chances as Mexico found out but they see a lot of the ball and have a pressurised style that leads to them playing on the front foot. Fast, skilful, tricky runners with the ball against a slow, immobile defence is a combination that ranks well for Chile and I expect them to come through without the need for penalty kicks. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/chile-vs-uruguay-betting-tournament-hosts-and-defending-champions-kick-off-the-knockout-stages

[kevshat]

Quarter final 2 preview: 4pts Peru to beat Bolivia Evs Skybet Peru might not have lit this tournament up like they might have been expected to with the quality of their main three players but they were so unlucky not to get something out of Brazil and contained a strong Colombia side so I expect them to contain Bolivia’s attacking exploits and with the quality they have in the forward areas they should have enough to get this one done inside the 90 minutes. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/bolivia-vs-peru-betting-tournament-underdogs-battle-for-a-spot-in-the-semis

[harry_rag]

Chile v Uruguay: Buy Chile's goal rush at 18 with Spreadex Put simply, Chile are probably the most impressive side in the competition so far and I like their prospects of scoring 2 or more in this game. They've score 2, 3 and 5 so far. Hopefully that progression will continue! Even if it doesn't, a price that sees 2 goals edge you into profit seems worth taking.

[Woodgate]

It will be a very tight game when Chile and Uruguay will play tonight, we could see the game going to extra time. I have made a few bets on the game, the bets are. Araguiz to get booked odds 4,2 Unibet X Two units. He are a player who always give 110 % and In a game we are most likely to see cards, there is a good chance he will get a booking. Medel to be booked odds 2,80 Tipico X Two units. Its a bit surprising that Medel havent been booked yet, In a thigh game were Uruguay have some fast strikers he could well be booked. A Gonzalez to be booked odds 3,5 Tipico X Two units. Fairly playing Gonzalez usually dont get many cards, but it a tough midfield battle against Vidal there will be lots of tackles flying around. Gimenez to be booked odds 3,2 Unibet X Two units. Jimenez arent the fastest player and will be tested alot when Sanchez and Vargas are playing, cant resist the odds here.

[Thales]

Chile vs Uruguay I like Chile -1 EH @3.00, I think that without Suarez Uruguay will struggle. Chile are playing great football, they're gonna face some trouble in corners and fouls near the area, besides that I expect them to entirely dominate the match. Sampaoli is Bielsa's pupil and his teams have that offensive mindset. If Chile score first, Uruguay will have no other option than go forward, Chile have fast attackers and I think they're gonna find more goals.

[kevshat]

Quarter final 3 preview: 4pts Argentina vs Colombia - Under 2 goals 1.97 BetVictor Colombia don’t really look like the side who made it through to the last eight in Brazil last year but they have looked solid enough at the back so I think we’re in for a tight, low scoring match here even though both will want to avoid the draw and penalties. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/argentina-vs-colombia-betting-argentina-face-tricky-passage-to-the-semis

[McNasara]

Quarter final 2 preview: 4pts Peru to beat Bolivia Evs Skybet Peru might not have lit this tournament up like they might have been expected to with the quality of their main three players but they were so unlucky not to get something out of Brazil and contained a strong Colombia side so I expect them to contain Bolivia’s attacking exploits and with the quality they have in the forward areas they should have enough to get this one done inside the 90 minutes. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/bolivia-vs-peru-betting-tournament-underdogs-battle-for-a-spot-in-the-semis

Two weakest teams of all the quarter-finalists, two neighboring countries that played a draw in the last four mutually meetings. Both sides have new coaches starting this year, so that the players are not yet fully adapted to the new system. Bolivia have fewer good players, but it should be noted that they will be more rested than their opponent that must play without two regular midfielders through suspension. I wouldn't be surprised if Peru don't win here, no bet for me.

[clubgowi]

Copa America: Bolivia- Peru Bolivia have conceded seven goals in their last three halves of football at the Copa and whilst they one won of those games, it might be that they are reverting to type and have remembered just how poor they are and are supposed to be away from home ! We spoke about this ahead of their opener with Mexico......... "I mentioned yesterday how El Tri are seemingly prioritising their Gold Cup campaign, which begins in less that four weeks time, they are honouring their CONCACAF obligations and the fact that their opening game is in Chicago, which houses the second largest population of Mexican-born immigrants in the US, is probably also a deciding factor. They have left a host of key players, including Chicharito, Guardado, Giovani dos Santos, Carlos Vela. plus several others at home and this is very much a B team, despite anything to the contrary that controversial coach Miguel Herrera might say. He is very stubborn and seems certian to stick with his preferred formation (basically a 5-3-2) without the players he needs to do it justice ! If they were playing anyone else today apart from Bolivia, I would like to oppose them, but their opponents are not very good away from their high altitude homeland and have not won an away game in over eight years and the one before that was four years earlier, so a defeat of South Africa in a friendly , where they were gifted a winning goal and opponents were denied an equaliser when the referee blew his whistle for half time with the ball en route to the net, to show for 12 years and some 50 away/neutral starts ! Mexico are below strength, have other priorities and will play a formation that will not suit personnel, Bolivia are not very good and cannot win outside their own country ! If we had to bet, I would have to suggest the draw @ circa 4.33 and I might take a (very) little on that just to keep me awake !" They played out a 0-0 draw there and were then 3-0 up at the break against an Ecuador team who simply did not show up at these championships until it was time to go home ! They won that 3-2, but Ecuador missed a penalty and hit the woodwork and I doubt that Bolivia would have progressed from any other group. Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards on Paolo Guerro, Jefferson Farfan and Claudion Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay and I feel they will have learned from that. Peru -0.5 ball 1.93 asian line/Sportmarket.

[harry_rag]

Peru v Bolivia: >60 bookings points at 17/10 with PP Spreads have this in for around 60 points, on which basis I'd make the correct price more like 2.45, so a theoretical edge of over 10%. Ref Roldan isn't an out and out card machine but will show them when the occasion demands in competitive games. Worth an interest in my tracking of potential value bookings bets, hopefully will add another winner.

[owenclass]

Name the Finalists Brazil vs Chile 11/4 paddy power Chile vs Colombia 5/1 paddy power Argentina are favourites to win the Copa America but i think either Brazil or Colombia might reach the final as these two teams have still got so much quality

[TotoSchillaci]

Colombia are missing their two defensive mids in Sanchez and Valencia. Sanchez in particular has been credited with nullifying Neymar in their 1-0 win and also a while ago given the plaudits for keeping Messi quiet in a 0-0 with Argentina. Important part of the pitch and may swing the run of play heavily in favour of the Argies who have been threatening to hit form in the tourney.

[harry_rag]

Peru v Bolivia: >60 bookings points at 17/10 with PP

That obliged, with 8 yellows shown. Tonight I've gone for >70 bookings points in Argentina v Colombia at 9/5 with PP. The selection would have been 85/40 for >75 with SJ but it was cut to 2/1. Preference was more due to the bigger price as there wasn't much difference in the perceived edge, but the 9/5 is now easily the better option. Price wrong based on a spread expectation of around 67 points (more like 8/5 for me), looks reasonable based on recent head to heads but only fair to say ref stats are neutral at best. Enough value for a small bet at least, in my opinion.

[harry_rag]

Bookings bet won again, though needed a very late yellow to get it over the line, which wouldn't have seemed likely at half time when 6 had already been shown. In terms of qualifying selections (fixed odds prices offering a minimum 5% edge when compared to the spreads) there have been 6 now with 3 winners at odds of 9/5 twice and 17/10. The three shortest priced bets have won but you'd still be +2.3 points to 1point level stakes with an ROI of 38.3%. Will see if there are any more bets up to the final and update accordingly.

[HastGill1]

How did Argentina not win in normal time!? Thought Colombia were garbage.

[kevshat]

Semi final 1 preview: 4pts Chile vs Peru - Over 2.5 goals 7/5 Betfair Instead I’ll look to the goals market where over 2.5 goals looks a big price. These two have probably been the two most attacking sides in the competition and both have shown vulnerabilities in defence. Four of their last five meetings have gone over 2.5 goals and we could well be set for another one here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/chile-vs-peru-betting-hosts-chile-look-to-progress-to-their-own-final

[kevshat]

Semi final 2 preview: 4pts Argentina vs Paraguay - Over 2.5 goals 29/20 BetVictor The last four matches between the two have contained at least four goals which is an indication that these two often produce fireworks and at strong odds against over 2.5 goals could well be the way to go here. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/argentina-vs-paraguay-betting-a-place-in-the-final-awaits-two-competitive-sides

[WinningAdvice]

How did Argentina not win in normal time!? Thought Colombia were garbage.

I don't believe that Colombia were a garbage. You must have seen their World Cup 2014 performance and how James Rodriguez becomes an instant star. Anyway at Copa America 2015 obviously it was a stiff match Argentina have their Messi, Aguero, Tevez and Di Maria.While Colombia continue to replicate their World Cup run.

[clubgowi]

Copa America: Chile- Peru With Brazil, who have always been a bogey team for Chile out of the competition and Argentina facing a rematch with a Paraguayan side they struggled with at the group stage tomorrow, things are starting to look hugely promising for the hosts, but with that comes added pressure, the level of expectation is through the roof and now, failure to reach the final will be seen as a bit of a disaster and if Peru can hang on in there early, they can use that to their advantage. Peru have looked very well organised at these championships and were comfortable quarter final winners over Bolivia, ahead of which I wrote ......Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards in Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay that year and I feel they will have learned from that. They were 2-0 up inside the first quarter of the game, had a whopping 27 attempts on goal (hitting the woodwork twice) and Paolo Guerrero scored a hat trick, before Bolivia made the scoreline respectable with a late consolation goal, it was an impressive victory and this is a team on the up and improving game upon game. Chilean centre back Gonzalo Jara is suspended after putting his finger where it should not be put (!) and the hosts conceded two goals at home to the US in the only start he has missed in 2015. Mexico are the only team who have really taken the game to Chile in this competition and they scored three without the cream of their offensive talent and if Peru are prepared to have a go, I can definitely see a goal or maybe two for them and I am very keen on the "away" team with the handicap start. Peru use both flanks well and could create havoc in the box, with a big aerial advantage over Chile and I have to take ..............1 Peru +1 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket. Gary Medel and David Pizzaro ended the Bolivia game in the middle of the backline for Chile, they are each 1.71m tall, Guerrero and Claudio Pizzaro are both 1.84m + and this could be a real route to goal for Peru, who are a very tempting 6.5-7.0 general quote to score twice ("over" 1.5 goals) , how about something small on that.....

[Alexc]

According to WhoScored, both suspended players will be back for Peru.

[harry_rag]

Persuaded by the prospect of goals in this game, largely inspired by what others have written, I was surprised to see total goals as low as 2.4 to buy with SPIN this morning (2.6 elsewhere) so I decided to buy. Looks like the world and his wife agree as that's up to 2.6 now and as high as 2.8 elsewhere. Over 2.5 goals is also 11/10 best and odds on in plenty of places so it looks like the early birds have hoovered up the value here. Just need it to translate into a win now!

[harry_rag]

I think there's a value bookings bet in the Argentina v Paraguay game, >80 points at 12/5 with Sportingbet. Spreads have this in for around 71 points and I'd say the odds on it going >80 should be no more than 11/5, if that. Probably need a red card to get over that line but that's less than 2/1 for this game.