Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm

[Aidymac]

:ok

[beaker1]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends The last 15 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase 14 of the last 16 winners had won earlier in the season 14 of the last 15 winners ran in the King George VI or the Lexus Chase 12 of the last 14 winners were officially rated 166+ 12 of the last 23 renewals were won by second-season chasers 12 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 2 last time out 11 of the last 14 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before 13 of the last 14 winners started in the first 3 in the betting 9 of the last 13 winners did not run during the same calendar year 9 of the last 15 winners started their career in Irish Point-to-Points No winner older than 10 since 1969

[Aidymac]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm I am seriously opposing Silviniaco Conti at that price. No doubt if this race was run on a flat track it would be difficult to oppose him, but it is obvious that he does not like Cheltenham, and the form is in the book to prove it. He looked a sure winner of the race last year but the hill caught him out and there are some very progressive stayers coming here this year in Many Clouds, Road To Riches, Djakadam and Holywell who loves the track. Not sure what I will be backing yet but it won't be Conti, that's for sure.

[cpo]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Agreed! He is ridiculously short... my hard earned will be on Holywell :cigar

[Toast]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Carlingford Lough 20/1 ew....after timing sorry. Agreed about SC. he missed the RSA a few years back because his trainer thought he was better on flat tracks. Waited for Aintree and won the Manifesto. CL ran a very encouraging comeback in the Lexus and was still in with a shout going to the last, until fitness caught him out. He was also not help by On His Own who continually jumped out to his right. Punchestown in may will suit him better. CL is exactly the type of horse McCoy thrives on, leave him out the back then throw everything at him.

[Aidymac]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm

Carlingford Lough 20/1 ew....after timing sorry. Agreed about SC. he missed the RSA a few years back because his trainer thought he was better on flat tracks. Waited for Aintree and won the Manifesto. CL ran a very encouraging comeback in the Lexus and was still in with a shout going to the last, until fitness caught him out. He was also not help by On His Own who continually jumped out to his right. Punchestown in may will suit him better. CL is exactly the type of horse McCoy thrives on, leave him out the back then throw everything at him.

Could be worth getting involved in running at a huge price mate, if he is held up. I backed Lord Windermere for the Gold Cup last year, and I felt so silly that I didn't get involved in-running given his hold up nature. He traded at 480 in-running!

[danj2202]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm I am also with dveryone on SC who isnt for me in the Gold Cup and definitely not at that price. Very hard to argue with the body of work Road to Riches has put together this year and hd is my selection

[Toast]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm

Could be worth getting involved in running at a huge price mate, if he is held up. I backed Lord Windermere for the Gold Cup last year, and I felt so silly that I didn't get involved in-running given his hold up nature. He traded at 480 in-running!

You could have a point there, should imagine he will trade bigger mid race. Runs in the Irish Hennessey this Sunday.

[Toast]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm It could be something or nothing, but going back to 2000, except for Denman and Kauto Star, every winner had run no more than 3 times that season and none had run after either the King George or the Lexus. Obvious Nicholls trained both horses and he as entered Unioniste in the Denman this Saturday that both Denman and Kauto won. May be worth a small each way wager, but according to his trainer, the grand national is his main target.

[Toast]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm

I am also with dveryone on SC who isnt for me in the Gold Cup and definitely not at that price. Very hard to argue with the body of work Road to Riches has put together this year and hd is my selection

Will proberley have a saver on this in the next few days. Certainly very progressive, only worry, though slight, is the last time he crossed the Irish sea, he was hammered at Aintree. Looks like he's going straight GC, as he don't have an entry in the Hennessey, which looks good from a trends angle.

[waynecoyne]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm coneygree was very impressive in the denman chase on saturday the main positives were his jumping and high cruising speed. To my mind his performance was more impressive than the winner in the hennesy at leoprdstown on sunday. This looks a wide open gold cup. He is a novice but is eight yeras old. stats are against him-lastnovice winner in 1974 however he looks at relentless galloper and clever jumper, Connections will leave it as late as possible before choosing between this and the rsa. 12/1 nrnb is the sensible option with doubts about his participation 16/1 available without the insurance. i've had a little of each

[Toast]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm It's his novice status that puts me off him. Pipe had a similar one in Gloria Victus which he ruined by running him in the GC and not the RSA. But, like you say, it's a wide open race.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm

It's his novice status that puts me off him. Pipe had a similar one in Gloria Victus which he ruined by running him in the GC and not the RSA. But, like you say, it's a wide open race.

Always mind winning a nice few bob on Gloria Victus at Kempton when Richard Johnson was up, my big mate backed Red Marauder, i must have done about 4 or 5 visits to the counter backing Gloria Victus all at different prices, from what i can remember they won from pillar to post, we got drunk that night and had a really good bit of banter. But the moral of the story is, my big mate passed over Red Marauder in the 2001 Grand National. He won at 33/1 [h=4]Full Result[/h][TABLE=class: tbl t3 mobile-collapse, width: 100%] [TR] [TH=align: center]Pos[/TH] [TH=align: center]Dist[/TH] [TH=class: ixt]Horse[/TH] [TH=class: ixt]Trainer[/TH] [TH=align: center]Age[/TH] [TH=align: center]Weight[/TH] [TH=class: ixt]Jockey[/TH] [TH=class: mobile-hdn, align: center]SP[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]1st[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: ixt]10 Red Marauder[/TD] [TD=class: ixt]N Mason[/TD] [TD=align: center]11[/TD] [TD=align: center]10-11[/TD] [TD=class: ixt]Richard Guest[/TD] [TD=class: mobile-hdn, align: center]33/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: note] [TD=colspan: 8]Held up towards rear, mistakes throughout, headway 13th, left clear 20th, led 21st, headed 27th, led and went clear approaching 2 out, ridden out flat £20000-£500 £8000-£200[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Smarty72]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Latest Press Release with updated runners and non runners.... http://cheltenham.thejockeyclub.co.uk/pr-policies/press-releases/key-contenders-go-forward-for-championship-races-at-the-festival

[mowgli77]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm I'm keen on SMAD PLACE each way at around 20-1. Needs to improve plenty but has past festival form, 3rd in two world hurdles and 2nd in last years RSA. Alan King has them firing by March and a live outsider at a price for me. Ran on well enough last time out over a similar trip and at Cheltenham. Probably doesn't fit many trends but will be interesting to see how he goes.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Bob's Worth has become a bit of a forgotten horse for me. His reappearance in the Lexus was lacklustre much like his effort in the Betfair Chase the year before but I've no doubt he'll come on for the run and Henderson will have him spot on for Cheltenham. There are some nice improvers in the field but I don't know how he can go from a 6/4 shot in the last Gold Cup to a 16/1 chance this time with no obvious signs of regression. He had a massive chance of winning this race for the second year running before stumbling on landing at the last and I don't think anyone knows what happened to him and Silviniaco Conti after that. That run was just two starts ago and he's a gutsy performer who will gallop all the way up the hill. Like Lord Windermere I think his trainer has just one thing in mind and he has a really solid chance in an open contest. I can't have Silviniaco Conti at such a short price when Nicholls has clearly stated he's better on flat tracks and I really don't think he has much over some of his competitors. Many Clouds has been super impressive this season and confirmed himself as a big contender with a bold jumping display last time out. He's a horse I like however his record on quicker ground is poor and I'm not sure if I'd take a chance on him at 8/1. Djakadam who also has a progressive profile looks more like a contender for next year as he's only 6 and he didn't beat much in the Thyestes but has obvious scope for improvement, just this race looks a little too soon. Sam Winner is an interesting one as he doesn't seem to have the talent of some of the others but he's a real battler and was only beaten 8L in the RSA last year. He's much improved since then under Nicholls only beaten just over 3L by Road to Riches in the Lexus so on his return to Cheltenham he might be able to hit the frame at 33/1. I don't think Carlingford Lough jumps well enough to win a hot contest like this and I much prefer Road to Riches to him and of course you have to consider Lord Windermere at 14/1 with his record at Cheltenham. At 16/1 I'm liking the look of Bob's Worth although I haven't placed any bets yet.

[BillyHills]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm ..........Road To Riches is a new kid on the block, given a break by trainer Noel Meade since winning the Lexus Chase at Christmas. He had On His Own, Boston Bob and Carlingford Lough in behind that day as well as Lord Windermere. He looked beat at one point but rallied under pressure, which is just what you need in the Gold Cup. He has never hone beyond 3m before so that is a slight worry but as we stand he does have the best Irish form coming into the race. He’s 9/1 with >William Hill and looks like he could be the gamble on the day to me. AP McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in what will be his last Gold Cup before retiring, he could attract plenty of money at 11/1, also with >Hills, so we could see plenty of pre-race action in the betting ring and the favourite Silviniaco Conti could well drift out to a decent price if we get an over-reaction on those Irish runners. Full Preview: http://www.horse-racing.org/cheltenham-preview-gold-cup

[robertob]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Agree on Conti. He had no excuses last year, and the year before when he fell - honestly, I didn't think he travelled like winning either. Look at his record, and you see his best efforts came all on flat tracks. I seriously like Coneygree, if he takes his chance in the race. To me, this horse looks special. Otherwise, Carlingfourd Lough hits the right profile in my eyes to be a big contender. Still available at 11's looks good. Also I think one has to forget anything Lord Windermere has done this season. He looked improved at Leopardstown in the Hennessy and will come on a good bit. He loves Cheltenham and has been trained solely with this race in mind. 14's looks quite interesting. I think these two will be my bets for the Gold Cup.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm This is a really hard race to gauge. I agree about the Conti comments in that Im not sure he will see it out and find the hill too much once more. His form this season hasnt really been franked either and the presence of quite a few front runners could hamper his chances further. I think the same comments might apply to Carningford Lough. He has done well this season, probably needing the run FTO after travelling well before winning LTO in a decent race. My concern with him comes around Cheltenham as I was keen on him in the RSA but his jumping was poor and he found little at the business end. He might have improved this season but I'm not convinced yet. Bobs Worth has also been mentioned as a lively outsider and I couldnt disagree with that. He had a patchy season last year and looked the likely winner before jumping the last before good know what happened the other side. He appeared to land a little awkwardly before jinking to his left losing all momentum. His run in the Lexus was poor but you could see all the way round that Gerrarghty was trying to find better ground and whilst I dont normally listen to jockey comments, I do believe him on this occasion when he said Bobs Worth hated the ground. Henderson know how to prep Bobs Worth without a run so I dont have problem with that and the good ground and a return to Cheltenham are bonuses for the horse. My concern would be how well Henderson is going at the moments and with the form of Call the Cops today and the fact he was 4 from 4 as well, I would say he has the yard exactly where he wants them. I will still wait to see how his horses run on the first day, in particular the chasers, but at 16/1 he appears to be a live one. Another to show indifferent form throughout the season is Lord Windermere and I really dont know what to make of him. He popped up somewhat out of the blue last year and even in the race itself he didnt look like he was going to be involved at the finish 5 out, but crept into it, stayed on and eventually picked up the pieces. In another year where the early pace will be strong it would play into his hands. I'm not sure what to make of his last run behind Carlingford Lough as whilst he did take it up early enough I would have thought that he could have seen it out a little better. I wouldnt certainly wouldnt put anyone off at the prices. On His Own is another not without a chance and his runs this season have been encouraging, albeit a little quirky. Like last year's Gold Cup he has gone out in front, made it a true test, become slightly outpaced before staying on again at the death. He showed last season that he loves the hill and his form is up there with the best yet he is a big price. He definitely has an EW chance but I do think that his quirks might just be enough to stop him winning. Many Clouds is another with a decent chance. His Hennessy form is excellent, despite it not looking the strongest renewal and he beat three realistic contenders in the Betbright Chase staying on at the finish after jumping well. We know Dynaste is heading elsewhere but I think Many Clouds was staying on better than Smad Place and give the weight that one was getting, I dont see any reason why he should reverse the form aside from the going description. If Many Clouds gets genuine soft ground then I can see him going close but if there is any good in the description then I cant see him running to the same level form. The horse with the most interesting chance and also the one I cant really find too many holes in is Road to Riches. His form this year has been rock solid, he goes well on all types of ground, I am pretty confident he will stay the trip, he jumps well and he has form on testing tracks. The only downside that I can see is that he has run around Cheltenham before, and I think that is a big negative but 9/1 is a more than fair price. The other horse quite high in the market is Holywell but for me he has enough to prove. His form in last years festival win hasnt really been franked other than by the 2^nd around Aintree's big fences and his form this season has been underwhelming. Others that dont take my fancy are Boston Bob and Djakadam, the later not showing the level of form required IMO and the former just doesnt look up to a race of this calibre. My shortlist at the moment would be as follows: Road to Riches – 9/1 Paddy Power Bobs Worth – 16/1 EW Betvictor Many Clouds (only on soft) – 9/1 Betvictor

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm I see that Nicholls is saying that Conti had ulcers after last season, and whilst I don't really believe a word that comes out of his mouth when it comes to excuses for his horses, does anyone have any experience/knowledge of this? How much would it affect his performance? I'm guessing that seeing as he won at Aintree it won't be too much?

[Toast]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm He said that a few weeks ago. Think he was making excuses for the defeat at Cheltenham tbh.

[Aidymac]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm There is no way Conti will stay the price he currently is, he will surely drift quite a bit come the day. There will be a flurry of money for some of the Irish horses, like Carlingford Lough, Road To Riches and Djakadam. Hold out and you might get 5/1 upwards on Conti.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm

He said that a few weeks ago. Think he was making excuses for the defeat at Cheltenham tbh.

Yeh he was but he said the vet only found them after Aintree so they must have been present for both races. I don't believe him but I'm just wondering if it is an angle I should take into account or not. I am leaning towards the latter, if you couldnt guess! :)

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Also fwiw I dreamt that Lord Windermere beat Bob's Worth in a photo. I can't even win the race in my dreams!

[bennyblue]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm On Coneygree @40/1 and 33/1 come on bradstock get him declared for the gold cup

[Aidymac]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Cheltenham 3:20 - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase(Grade 1) (1) 3m2f 110yds Tony McCoy will retire at the end of this season so this will be his last ever Gold Cup, and no jockey will be trying harder, that's for sure. Question is, does he have the horse under him that is capable of winning the Gold Cup? In my opinion, yes he has, and CARLINGFORD LOUGH can be backed at 10/1 with Bet365. This is a late maturer who had 9 runs under his belt over fences before he got his first win, which was in the Galway Plate from a mark of 133. His progress since then has been pretty impressive, going on to land a Grade 1 at Leopardstown later in the year and then went on to win the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown. He has only had one Festival run to date, which was a creditable 6th behind O'Faolains Boy in the RSA last year, never really involved after some poor jumping errors. The trainer has clearly had the Gold Cup in mind all this year, as he has only had two runs to date, the first of which was in the Lexus Chase in December where he finished 5th behind Road To Riches. If that was all I had seen of the horse, I would have given him no chance of winning the Gold Cup, but he produced a career best last time out in the Irish Hennessy, getting the better of Foxrock with last years' Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere 9 lengths behind. That is a very strong piece of form and if he can replicate it on Friday he could run a huge race in what is a very tough Gold Cup. >>>>> Carlingford Lough - 1 Point each-way @ 10/1 Bet365 https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/

[BillyHills]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm 3.20 Cheltenham: Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2f110y) The big race of the week and what the 70,000 spectators have come to see. Last year won by Lord Windermere in a surprise result and he bids to retain his title along with several of the placed horses. Six favourites have won the Gold Cup in the last twelve years making it a good race for punters, apart from last years 20/1 winner the biggest odds previously in that time was Synchronised at 8/1 in 2012. Seven of the best; Silviniaco Conti – The favourite and rightly deserved on his form this season. He won the Betfair Chase at Haydock and then easily defended his crown in the King George at Kempton over Christmas. Nothing else in the field can match those figures and if this race wasn’t at Cheltenham he’d be even money. The big problem many people have with Conti is that for the last two years now he has been well backed to win this race and has failed to deliver. He fell in 2013 and led at the last in 2014 only to fade up the run-in and ended up out of the frame. Does he get this trip at this track? If he doesn’t win this year then I reckon his chance will have gone for good. Road To Riches – Gigginstown Studs number one hope and trained by Noel Meade. He was only rated 149 at the beginning of the season and not really considered to be this class. He won the Galway Plate in July and then ran Sizing Europe to a head at Gowran. Up until then he had been kept to 2m4f and then he won the Jnwine Champion Chase at Down Royal beating Rocky Creek. All of a sudden his options opened up and was entered for the Lexus Chase. He met and beat most of his Irish rivals including Boston Bob, Carlingford Lough and Lake Windermere that day and now faces his stiffest task to date. It’s been a meteoric rise this season and who says it’s finished yet? Many Clouds – Started off the season with a win at Carlisle in an ordinary Conditions Chase, it was his prep race for the Hennessy at Newbury a couple of weeks later. He ran off 151 in the Hennessy and put up his best performance yet as a chaser by beating the very reliable Houblon Des Obeaux by over 3 lengths. After a break he came back at Cheltenham on trials day to win the BetBright Cup from Smad Place and Dynaste showing a nice turn of foot up the hill. That was a nice confidence booster as the last time he was here he got brought down in the RSA. Still improving and a strong stayer so has no fears about a battle at the end of a tough race. Carlingford Lough – This horse could well attract a lot of late money as it will be AP McCoys last Gold Cup ride before he retires. What a fairy tale this would be if he could win for his boss JP McManus. The crowd would go nuts and the roof would literally be lifted off the stand. The horse himself has every chance judged on his victory last time out in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown where he battled on well to get the better of Foxrock. He was well behind Road To Riches in the Lexus but has nothing to fear from any of the others. Bobs Worth – Has a bit to prove now after a lack-lustre effort in the Lexus at Christmas. He could only manage 8^th behind Road To Riches and the excuse was the ground being too sticky. He won this race back in 2013 and also won the RSA Chase and Albert Bartlett Hurdle so the Festival has been a very special place for Bobs Worth. Last season he was 5^th after looking dangerous at one point and you have to wonder if his best days are behind him now although trainer Nicky Henderson thinks he has a big chance if the ground is not soft. Coneygree – Switched from the RSA this novice is stepping up massively in class but runs in the style of a horse who doesn’t seem to mind who is behind him. Bowls out in front, jumps very well and just gallops the others into submission. Many think he should have stayed in novice company this season but he’s an 8yo now and if he had won the RSA easily they would be regretting not going for this. Could be anything and worth a go in an open year. Djakadam – An improving youngster for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh and not to be taken too lightly. He was well fancied to win the JLT last year but fell when going well and then was backed to win the Hennessy at Newbury. He made a bad blunder at the wrong time that day and faded to finish 8^th behind Many Clouds and his inexperience was counting against him. Last time out he won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park by 8 lengths and that has put him right back in the frame for a big race like this. Verdict: I was all set to tip Silviniaco Conti this year as I do think he’s better equipped to deal with this race now. My mind has been changed by the addition of Coneygree into the line up and I do think he’s got the style of a Denman and can have most of these in trouble by the time they get to three out. He will stay all the way to the line and I think his tactics will upset Conti and Road To Riches who like to dictate. Djakadam is a big danger and I don’t think we have seen the best of him yet. 1pt EW Coneygree 10/1 Skybet

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm I'm struggling here. Looking at the field, they're gonna go off bloody hard I'd imagine. I'm concerned it could fall apart at the business end and a strong stayer from off the pace could pick up the pieces like last year. My problem is Holywell and Carlingford Lough's jumping, and the well-being of Bob's Worth and Lord Windermere as they are my fancies off a strong gallop. Hmmm. Many Clouds and Coneygree could grind it out but unless the rain really comes they might not be able to do that. I'd say 10 horses have a decent chance in this. Nightmare!

[cpo]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Same here! I quite like The Giant Bolster now

[cpo]

Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm I have decided to side with The Giant Bolster each way. This horse seemed to improve last year for the fitting of a hood and visor, smashing Rocky Creek in the Argento and then finishing an unlucky 3rd in the Gold Cup last year. They have experimented with different headgear this year never combining the two but interestingly they are both back on for the big race tomorrow. I think its foolish to ignore a horse that has a recent record of 2-4-3 in this race. The trainer is in cracking form at the moment and no doubt this has been the horses target all season. Tom Scudamore hasn't ridden him all season but is back on tomorrow. Yes he has been beaten by a few of his rivals this season but I am happy to ignore that and have a little dabble on him. He could play a part at massive odds of 40/1.