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Nap Of The Day - Tuesday 30th September

Gambolaya

By Gambolaya
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Tuesday 30th September Ayr 5:00 - Rise To Glory WIN @ 7/1 Bet Victor In superb form at the moment with 3 wins from his last 5 runs and if he gets a soft lead tomorrow he could be very hard to peg back. Handicapper could be on top of him at the moment but was a good 4th over 5f last time out and the step up in trip should suit. Not a very strong race either.

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robertob

robertob

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Tuesday 30th September 18.20 Wolverhampton: Class 4 Handicap, 9f Mubtadi: Returned recently after a break at this venue, travelled well enough but tired badly in the home straight. Badly needed the run. Another month long break now is a worry. Travelled like the winner in March over course and distance when back from almost a year long break, just beaten by horse in front that pulled out more. Loves the All-Weather, and on that form chance with 5lb claimer, if back to best. Off The Pulse: Progressive this summer since getting off the mark over course and distance off 3lb lower back in December. Won class 3 handicap at Haydock, followed up with strong runner-up performance at Ayr. Chance to progress further and on fair mark. God's Speed: Won maiden over CD by ten lengths back in February, but beat donkeys that day. Since then racing of high marks usually in hot company. Best performance over CD ten days ago in better class, travelling wide and good move from 4f out but tired worryingly inside final furlong. May need more assistance from handicapper but down in grade and in smaller field might help to see him competitive. Modernism: Slipping down in the mark and can race off 5lb below his last winning mark (over CD, and looked good for more that day). Clear return to form in competitive 12f handicap at Kempton last week, staying on well from off the pace where it favoured horses up with the speed due to a pedestrian pace. Drops down to favoured 9f trip after being campaigned over further throughout the year. Should be very competitive. Mazaaher: Clearly going strongly on the All-Weather. Won in August over CD off 4lb lower showing guts and determination and followed up with strong performance when only narrowly denied. Disappointing on turf subsequently, but back on the AW will help and must be an obvious contender with further improvement not unlikely. Dutch Rifle: Didn't stay 11f last time out, but is two from two over course and distance. Still lightly raced and as 3yo obvious chance with WFO allowance. If quite good enough against hot opposition remains to be seen as hasn't fired on this kind of level yet. Dream Child: Contested in good maidens on the All-Weather and placed in all three of them, while beaten there by some good individuals. Didn't seem to stay 10f in all those starts. Handicap debut now and slight drop in trip will surly help as he's bred for much shorter. Mark looks fair and prominent racing style could be advantage if not too much pace is on. Verdict: An extremely competitive and deep contest. Any of the seven horses has a fair chance to get the head in front. Pace should be on with Dream Child, God's Speed and Dutch Rifle - they are all likely to have the desire to be up with the speed. Godolphin's Dream Child seems a rather short favourite considering how competitive this race is, even though he makes plenty of appeal from a pure weight perspective, receiving weight all around. He didn't look to stay 10f in three starts though, and the drop in trip to nine furlongs might not be enough for him. He's bred for shorter. Off The Pulse is a solid contender, has a fine CD record and if he's fit after a break, he should be thereabouts. He doesn't strike as a particularly well handicapped individual, though. Mazaaher won well over CD not too long ago. He can progress further, has to put a poor recent showing behind however. The remaining three year old contenders Dutch Rifle and God's Speed may be well capable of further improvement, but that says that they have enough to do from their current marks. Mubtadi is to a certain extend a key horse. If he could find back to his best, he'll be a very dangerous contender. He has been fading quite badly when seen the last time, and perception is that he may struggle yet again here. Leaves us with Modernism. He has plenty going for him in the right direction. The drop in trip back to his optimum should be a big help, so should be the fact that he is well handicapped on old form, and his recent strong Kempton run suggests, that he is hitting a bit of form and is the one they all have to beat. Modernism @ 4/1 Paddy Power

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bartrum

bartrum

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Tuesday 30th September 6.0 ayr exton @ 28/1 bet 365 1st time in an hcap, no form yet.... Think this maybe punted and I need a big price winner... Gone for the apprentice race as I'm hoping the race is a farce and mine somehow wins it!!! Last day of the month, the form book goes out the window!!!

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Boulder5111

Boulder5111

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Tuesday 30th September A4.25 Echologic 1pt win 40/1 Stan James If you take a look through which trainers perform well (ie good ROI) over the years, then this trainer is often high on the list. He's had a shocking season this time around though, but he had a winner recently and it might be that his horses most recent runs can be ignored whilst the stable was out of form. I also like the fact he's trying a different jockey on this one for the first time so worth taking a chance wiht off this lowly handicap mark.

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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Re: Nap Of The Day - Tuesday 30th September Change my NAP.. Chepstow 2:00 - Significant Move WIN @ 22/1 Betfred This is a very weak maiden and won't take much winning at all, and some of the horses at the head of the market have negatives attached. Trip is an unknown but the horse should have plenty of flat speed and he stays 1m6f. Conor O'Farrell a good booking too.

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