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Lodge's Thread


Lodge

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Re: Lodge's Thread Final selection for tomorrow: 1.45 - Southwell - Aqua Ardens 1pt @ 5/1 Paddypower Another horse that i've followed for a while. Aqua Ardens has produced 2 cracking runs since being returned to polytrack after an autumn break, he's been raised a couple of lbs for those efforts but still remains feasibly handicapped in my opinion. He returns to Southwell tomorrow, the scene of his only AW win, and i feel he could be one of those horses who proves better at Southwell than any other course. His sire Nayef's offspring have a cracking record at the course so his unexposed nature on this surface is a major positive. Decent claimer takes off 3lbs (19% strike rate on AW in past year) to ease his weight slightly and he has a consistent profile since getting back to winning ways in June, so i can see him going close in this competitive apprentice event.

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Re: Lodge's Thread

Final selection for tomorrow: 1.45 - Southwell - Aqua Ardens 1pt @ 5/1 Paddypower Another horse that i've followed for a while. Aqua Ardens has produced 2 cracking runs since being returned to polytrack after an autumn break, he's been raised a couple of lbs for those efforts but still remains feasibly handicapped in my opinion. He returns to Southwell tomorrow, the scene of his only AW win, and i feel he could be one of those horses who proves better at Southwell than any other course. His sire Nayef's offspring have a cracking record at the course so his unexposed nature on this surface is a major positive. Decent claimer takes off 3lbs (19% strike rate on AW in past year) to ease his weight slightly and he has a consistent profile since getting back to winning ways in June, so i can see him going close in this competitive apprentice event.
3.40 - Exeter - Pineau De Re 1pt @ 11/2 William Hill I've been following this horse this season and i'm hoping he can repay my faith by winning the veterans chase at Exeter tomorrow. He's ran a couple of really encouraging races this season suggesting to me he is well handicapped. He was a close 5th in a listed handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in November, he then fell early after being well backed in the Becher but bounced back over the smaller obstacles when a 2L 2nd to a very unexposed progressive rival. He goes back chasing tomorrow, off a 3lb lower mark than his recent placed effort, he clearly has plenty of ability in this sphere having won the Ulster National by 23 lengths in April. The trip is no problem at all and he seems to go in any ground, Sam Twiston-Davies booked for the ride and he should go well for an in form yard. He ran poorly last time out, but it was his 3rd race in a fortnight (did fall early once) and i think he can be excused for the poor effort.
3.55 - Southwell - Omega Omega 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 I think that Omega Omega certainly has more chance of reversing the form with Goodlukin Lucy than her odds suggest. The 5yo mare is still a maiden from 15 career starts but the way she shaped over 14f here last time suggests she has the ability to pick up a low grade handicap at Southwell. She travelled like and absolute dream and looked as likely as any to win when turning for home (traded at evens in running), unfortunately she didn’t see the trip out as well as a couple of the others and was a 3L 5th. She drops back in trip by 2f tomorrow and the way she shaped last time suggests to me it will benefit her greatly. She has a slight swing in the weights with the favourite and to me i can’t seeing there being much between them so at the prices she looks worth a bet.
Not a bad day... Aqua Ardens ran really well, i was convinced he was going to go past Noble Citizen but decided to hang into him instead and finished a neck 2nd despite hitting 1.36 in running. Pineau De Re absolutely hacked up :) travelled ever so smoothly and Sammy barely had to ask him for an effort. Well backed winner going off 11/4f leaving me wishing i'd had more on! Omega Omega was also the subject of market support (probably because of Hugh Taylor) ran a good race, at one point down the straight she looked to be staying on and getting towards the winner but finished a couple of lengths back in 3rd. She should be able to pick up a weak race over the same C&D but will probably be a lot shorter than 12/1 nto. Got a couple of potential bets for tomorrow sorted already, just waiting for some prices.... Staked: 53pts Returned: 96.39ts P/L: +43.39pts
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Re: Lodge's Thread 2.25 - Newbery - Restless Harry 1pt @ 7/1 William Hill Restless Harry has clearly regressed slightly since competing at the very top level in staying hurdles but he should have a chase in him off this kind of mark. He was rated in the high 150’s at his best but he finds himself in a handicap chase off a mark of 122 tomorrow. He’s been well backed on his past 2 starts but things haven’t gone to plan. He was unlucky on his penultimate start when unseating after being badly hampered by a fallen horse and LTO he also unseated, after a blunder but was travelling perfectly well. I’m hoping tomorrow will see a turn in fortunes for him. Conditions are perfect as he likes testing ground and won on his only C&D run. He finds himself in the weakest race he has contested for some time, despite it still being a decent race. He’s had a few starts now this season so should be at peak fitness and the fact he’s turned out relatively quickly after than fall suggests he’s suffered no ill effects from it.

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Re: Lodge's Thread 2nd and final bet for tomorrow, taken very early prices, lets just hope they prove value! 5.25 - Kempton - Triple Chocolate 1pt @ 7/1 William Hill I’m quite keen on the unexposed Triple Chocolate tomorrow at Kempton. The 4yo has just had 2 starts, the first was a win at this course over 7f beating an odds-on Godolphin inmate and a couple of subsequent winners, and the 2nd was his handicap debut where he was a 4L 4th. He started slowly, and had to make up ground early, he travelled well enough on the outside but just didn’t quite have the turn of foot as the winner in the final furlong or so. He steps up to 8f tomorrow and i feel that may suit based on his last run. The form looks okay, the 2nd has been placed since and the 3rd horse has won and been placed since, and Triple Chocolate was a couple of lengths clear of the rest of the field. After just 2 careers starts he’s clearly open to more improvement than any of the others in this field. He proved last time on handicap debut that his mark isn’t overly harsh, and i feel the step up to 8f will most likely benefit him. He’s much better drawn than last time, and despite a fairly large field, theres a lot of out of form or badly handicapped sorts in this race.

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2nd and final bet for tomorrow' date= taken very early prices, lets just hope they prove value! 5.25 - Kempton - Triple Chocolate 1pt @ 7/1 William Hill I’m quite keen on the unexposed Triple Chocolate tomorrow at Kempton. The 4yo has just had 2 starts, the first was a win at this course over 7f beating an odds-on Godolphin inmate and a couple of subsequent winners, and the 2nd was his handicap debut where he was a 4L 4th. He started slowly, and had to make up ground early, he travelled well enough on the outside but just didn’t quite have the turn of foot as the winner in the final furlong or so. He steps up to 8f tomorrow and i feel that may suit based on his last run. The form looks okay, the 2nd has been placed since and the 3rd horse has won and been placed since, and Triple Chocolate was a couple of lengths clear of the rest of the field. After just 2 careers starts he’s clearly open to more improvement than any of the others in this field. He proved last time on handicap debut that his mark isn’t overly harsh, and i feel the step up to 8f will most likely benefit him. He’s much better drawn than last time, and despite a fairly large field, theres a lot of out of form or badly handicapped sorts in this race.
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Re: Lodge's Thread

2.25 - Newbery - Restless Harry 1pt @ 7/1 William Hill Restless Harry has clearly regressed slightly since competing at the very top level in staying hurdles but he should have a chase in him off this kind of mark. He was rated in the high 150’s at his best but he finds himself in a handicap chase off a mark of 122 tomorrow. He’s been well backed on his past 2 starts but things haven’t gone to plan. He was unlucky on his penultimate start when unseating after being badly hampered by a fallen horse and LTO he also unseated, after a blunder but was travelling perfectly well. I’m hoping tomorrow will see a turn in fortunes for him. Conditions are perfect as he likes testing ground and won on his only C&D run. He finds himself in the weakest race he has contested for some time, despite it still being a decent race. He’s had a few starts now this season so should be at peak fitness and the fact he’s turned out relatively quickly after than fall suggests he’s suffered no ill effects from it.
Well, Restless Harry won by 17L and finally showed how well handicapped he was :clap There was a slight rule 4 (10p) on the 7/1 meaning it paid just over 6/1 Staked: 54pts Returned: 103.69ts P/L: +49.69pts
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Re: Lodge's Thread 7.00 - Wolverhampton - High Time Too 1pt @ 14/1 Bet365 I put this one in my nag me tracker after her last run, thinking she’d be worth a look nto if she was likely to get a decent pace to aim at and at big odds she’s probably worth a bet tomorrow. The 4yo filly got off the mark at this course over the extended mile in August and has held her form in 3 runs since. Her latest start came over 1m at Lingfield where she ran well enough, she finished very strongly in a race where nothing really came from off the pace and finished beaten just over 1L in 5th. She gets another go off the same mark and steps up in trip to the extended 9f at Wolverhampton. That should be no issue as she’s been placed over further and in-fact the way she stayed on last time suggests to me she probably need further than 1m. I’d also imagine that she’ll be fitter for her first run in over 3 months last month. Graham Lee takes over in the saddle from the injured Martin Dwyer, which is a positive in my eyes, as is the fact she's ran well on both her starts at this course. She is drawn fairly wide but i’d expect her to be dropped in anyway and hopefully come with a strong late run off the back of a decent pace.

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Re: Lodge's Thread

7.00 - Wolverhampton - High Time Too 1pt @ 14/1 Bet365 I put this one in my nag me tracker after her last run, thinking she’d be worth a look nto if she was likely to get a decent pace to aim at and at big odds she’s probably worth a bet tomorrow. The 4yo filly got off the mark at this course over the extended mile in August and has held her form in 3 runs since. Her latest start came over 1m at Lingfield where she ran well enough, she finished very strongly in a race where nothing really came from off the pace and finished beaten just over 1L in 5th. She gets another go off the same mark and steps up in trip to the extended 9f at Wolverhampton. That should be no issue as she’s been placed over further and in-fact the way she stayed on last time suggests to me she probably need further than 1m. I’d also imagine that she’ll be fitter for her first run in over 3 months last month. Graham Lee takes over in the saddle from the injured Martin Dwyer, which is a positive in my eyes, as is the fact she's ran well on both her starts at this course. She is drawn fairly wide but i’d expect her to be dropped in anyway and hopefully come with a strong late run off the back of a decent pace.
Unfortunately todays selection finished 5th, looked quite keen, travelled wide and the race was run slowly. I will keep that one in my notebook for next time though, particularly if her trainer can find a weak race. Staked: 55pts Returned: 103.69ts P/L: +48.69pts
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Re: Lodge's Thread Apologies for not adding the write up with tomorrows selection earlier, had a nightmare day: 3.20 - Musselburgh - Bar De Ligne @ 5/1 Paddypower (price taken earlier, post 104) A poor days racing on the whole tomorrow and the only selection that i really fancy is Bar De Ligne I don’t think he’s showed his best side over fences yet, he has some useful form over hurdles and was rated 137 when last seen in that sphere back in May. He’s since ran over fences, picking up a novice chase on his 2nd start, beating the useful Grandads Horse in the process. His form has been abit in and out since, mainly because he has been up against better horses in Novice company. He’s now plying his trade in handicaps and ran a good race lto i felt. It came over C&D and while he was beaten 9L in 3rd the 2 horses that beat him were both fairly useful (Mr Moonshine who was 3rd in the Becher and Viva Colonia of Brian Ellison who is useful on his day). Tomorrows race is a class 3 like last time out but i feel it is a much more winnable race. He’s been dropped 2lb by the handicapper to a mark of 122 (6lb below his last hurdle win in April) and AP McCoy is booked for the ride (3 from 9 for this yard in the past year). All this points to a big run to me. The trip and ground are both fine and yard are in reasonable enough form, so at 5/1 he is worthy of a bet. Unfortunately the price is posted earlier is long gone and he's now a 3/1 shot. I wouldn't get involved at that price personally...

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Apologies for not adding the write up with tomorrows selection earlier' date= had a nightmare day: 3.20 - Musselburgh - Bar De Ligne @ 5/1 Paddypower (price taken earlier, post 104) A poor days racing on the whole tomorrow and the only selection that i really fancy is Bar De Ligne I don’t think he’s showed his best side over fences yet, he has some useful form over hurdles and was rated 137 when last seen in that sphere back in May. He’s since ran over fences, picking up a novice chase on his 2nd start, beating the useful Grandads Horse in the process. His form has been abit in and out since, mainly because he has been up against better horses in Novice company. He’s now plying his trade in handicaps and ran a good race lto i felt. It came over C&D and while he was beaten 9L in 3rd the 2 horses that beat him were both fairly useful (Mr Moonshine who was 3rd in the Becher and Viva Colonia of Brian Ellison who is useful on his day). Tomorrows race is a class 3 like last time out but i feel it is a much more winnable race. He’s been dropped 2lb by the handicapper to a mark of 122 (6lb below his last hurdle win in April) and AP McCoy is booked for the ride (3 from 9 for this yard in the past year). All this points to a big run to me. The trip and ground are both fine and yard are in reasonable enough form, so at 5/1 he is worthy of a bet. Unfortunately the price is posted earlier is long gone and he's now a 3/1 shot. I wouldn't get involved at that price personally...
:clap Another nice winner, haven't managed to watch the whole race yet. The stream on my phone cut out 2 from home while i was at work lol That profit column is creeping up towards 100% ROI, its not going to be easy to keep it that way! Bets: 54 Winners: 14 Strike Rate: 25.93% Staked: 56pts Returned: 109.69ts P/L: +53.69pts
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Re: Lodge's Thread I must admit i'm struggling to find much value tomorrow in any of the selections i fancy, i do have one initial selection though: 3.15 - Haydock - Merry King 1pt @ 5/1 Betvictor I usually try and avoid the big Saturday races but tomorrow i am going to chance my arm with Merry King. I've narrowed this race down to Merry King and Vintage Star, both look like they could win a race off their current marks to me but the fact Merry King is on better terms for beating Vintage Star last time out makes me lean towards him. The 7yo is still a relatively unexposed horse and he has some form this season which suggests to me he's very well handicapped. He was 2nd on his seasonal re-appearance to Houblon Des Obeaux who has since won off a mark of 152, and beat some useful horse including Triolo D'alane in the process. He then ran a good race in the Hennessy finishing 5th, and continued his good form in the Welsh National also finishing 5th. He runs off a 3lb lower mark than his last 2 races, and he's been placed off this mark in a race of this quality in the past. He's 5lb better off with Vintage Star who he beat last time out, and he has a visor fitted which will also hopefully eek out a little improvement. Tomorrows distance should be spot on, he's ran well at Haydock in the past and he's at home in heavy ground so along as his last run didn't take too much out of him, i feel he'll be quite hard to beat. I'm very happy to take on most of this field. I personally avoid horses who have taken a big rise in the weights, and theres quite a few in this field that have been raised 10lb+ for recent wins. I did also like Vintage Star and it wouldn't surprise me to see there little between him and my selection but the swing in weights makes me want to oppose him.

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Re: Lodge's Thread 3.10 - Lingfield - Noble Deed 1pt @ 9/1 BetVictor This one is a little speculative as i feel Noble Deed may need a little more respite from the handicapper, but he has shaped well enough on 2 recent starts and should run his race once more. He was 5th on his return from a break last month, shaping as 7f was a shade too far and as if he'd improve for the run. He was then returned to 6f and ran creditably once more, he finished 6th but wasn't far behind the 2nd placed horse in a race won by the thriving sprinter Perfect Pasture. He's been dropped 2lb since that race and Adam Kirby has been booked to ride for a yard he isn't usually associated with which looks interesting to me. The 4yo is still relatively unexposed and his turf form from the summer would give hims big chance off this mark. He's drawn well, racing over what looks his optimum trip and should be at the top of his game after being freshened up by a couple of runs. 9/1 Looks generous enough to me despite this being a very competitive race.

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3.10 - Lingfield - Noble Deed 1pt @ 9/1 BetVictor This one is a little speculative as i feel Noble Deed may need a little more respite from the handicapper, but he has shaped well enough on 2 recent starts and should run his race once more. He was 5th on his return from a break last month, shaping as 7f was a shade too far and as if he'd improve for the run. He was then returned to 6f and ran creditably once more, he finished 6th but wasn't far behind the 2nd placed horse in a race won by the thriving sprinter Perfect Pasture. He's been dropped 2lb since that race and Adam Kirby has been booked to ride for a yard he isn't usually associated with which looks interesting to me. The 4yo is still relatively unexposed and his turf form from the summer would give hims big chance off this mark. He's drawn well, racing over what looks his optimum trip and should be at the top of his game after being freshened up by a couple of runs. 9/1 Looks generous enough to me despite this being a very competitive race.
I must admit i'm struggling to find much value tomorrow in any of the selections i fancy, i do have one initial selection though: 3.15 - Haydock - Merry King 1pt @ 5/1 Betvictor I usually try and avoid the big Saturday races but tomorrow i am going to chance my arm with Merry King. I've narrowed this race down to Merry King and Vintage Star, both look like they could win a race off their current marks to me but the fact Merry King is on better terms for beating Vintage Star last time out makes me lean towards him. The 7yo is still a relatively unexposed horse and he has some form this season which suggests to me he's very well handicapped. He was 2nd on his seasonal re-appearance to Houblon Des Obeaux who has since won off a mark of 152, and beat some useful horse including Triolo D'alane in the process. He then ran a good race in the Hennessy finishing 5th, and continued his good form in the Welsh National also finishing 5th. He runs off a 3lb lower mark than his last 2 races, and he's been placed off this mark in a race of this quality in the past. He's 5lb better off with Vintage Star who he beat last time out, and he has a visor fitted which will also hopefully eek out a little improvement. Tomorrows distance should be spot on, he's ran well at Haydock in the past and he's at home in heavy ground so along as his last run didn't take too much out of him, i feel he'll be quite hard to beat. I'm very happy to take on most of this field. I personally avoid horses who have taken a big rise in the weights, and theres quite a few in this field that have been raised 10lb+ for recent wins. I did also like Vintage Star and it wouldn't surprise me to see there little between him and my selection but the swing in weights makes me want to oppose him.
Two 3rds today :\ Noble Deed was an unlucky horse in my eyes, looked abit short of room early on, Kirby had to try and go round the whole field from a long way back round the turn and he just had too much to do. Regardless of that he ran on very well and i'd definitely be interested in him next time out. Merry King looked beat a few fences from home but stayed on well in the closing stages to only be beaten by a length or so. Shame the turbo didn't kick in sooner :lol Will hopefully get out and see some racing tomorrow, one selection already lined up, just waiting for prices... Staked: 58pts Returned: 109.69ts P/L: +51.69pts
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Re: Lodge's Thread 2.00 - Kempton - Top Offer 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 On the AW Top Offer looks worthy of a small interest at his current odds. Peter Crate’s 5yo has a fascinating profile, he went off a 14/1 shot in the 2012 2000 Guineas so he clearly has some untapped ability inside him as he finds himself in a handicap tomorrow off a mark of 67. He’s tumbled down the weights in handicaps this season, a whole 28lbs and it wasn’t till his latest run that he’s really shown any promise. Back at 7f for the first time in a few runs, he was relatively slowly away, but made steady progress to work his way through the rear half of the field down the back straight. Unfortunately he was taken abit wide round the home turn by one of his rivals probably costing him a couple of lengths, but he plugged on down the straight to finish about 2L back in 4th. Had he not had to make up so much ground down the straight he could have finished even closer. He runs tomorrow in a similar race at Kempton, he’s drawn low so hopefully he won’t get caught too far back. He’s been dropped a further 1lb in the handicap. And Shane Kelly rides as usual. Considering he was rated 95 at the start of the 2013 and the encouragement he showed on his last run, i feel he has a good chance in this race tomorrow. 8/1 isn’t a huge price but if he puts it all together finally, it’ll prove very good value.

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Re: Lodge's Thread 2.10 - Towcester - Pure Science 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365 Sam Twiston Davies has a couple of interesting rides at Towcester and i particularly like the look of Pure Science. The 6yo was 6th in the Champion Bumper back in March and he hasn’t quite transferred all that ability over hurdles thus far. He ran relatively well in all 3 of his starts in Novice events, generally against very good opposition and i thought he may get abit close to winning than he did lto on his handicap debut. He was allotted a mark of 123, and considering he’s fairly well thought of, i thought he’d make slightly more of an impact than a 13L 4th. He did travel well though and maybe the 3m in testing conditions stretched him slightly. He drops back to 2m 5f tomorrow, albeit on a very stamina sapping course and that could just help him. The form of his Chepstow runs looks reasonable so far, he had a subsequent winner in behind and the 2nd placed horse Ugly Bug ran well from his revised mark today. He’s been dropped 1lb for that last run and drops in grade tomorrow (this looks a lot easier than last time out imo). Theres a question mark over a few of the others in the field, with 4 of the runners returning from lengthy breaks, American Life ran today so he is a an unlikely runner, as you can see this looks a winnable class 3 event.

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Re: Lodge's Thread

2.00 - Kempton - Top Offer 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 On the AW Top Offer looks worthy of a small interest at his current odds. Peter Crate’s 5yo has a fascinating profile, he went off a 14/1 shot in the 2012 2000 Guineas so he clearly has some untapped ability inside him as he finds himself in a handicap tomorrow off a mark of 67. He’s tumbled down the weights in handicaps this season, a whole 28lbs and it wasn’t till his latest run that he’s really shown any promise. Back at 7f for the first time in a few runs, he was relatively slowly away, but made steady progress to work his way through the rear half of the field down the back straight. Unfortunately he was taken abit wide round the home turn by one of his rivals probably costing him a couple of lengths, but he plugged on down the straight to finish about 2L back in 4th. Had he not had to make up so much ground down the straight he could have finished even closer. He runs tomorrow in a similar race at Kempton, he’s drawn low so hopefully he won’t get caught too far back. He’s been dropped a further 1lb in the handicap. And Shane Kelly rides as usual. Considering he was rated 95 at the start of the 2013 and the encouragement he showed on his last run, i feel he has a good chance in this race tomorrow. 8/1 isn’t a huge price but if he puts it all together finally, it’ll prove very good value.
2.10 - Towcester - Pure Science 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365 Sam Twiston Davies has a couple of interesting rides at Towcester and i particularly like the look of Pure Science. The 6yo was 6th in the Champion Bumper back in March and he hasn’t quite transferred all that ability over hurdles thus far. He ran relatively well in all 3 of his starts in Novice events, generally against very good opposition and i thought he may get abit close to winning than he did lto on his handicap debut. He was allotted a mark of 123, and considering he’s fairly well thought of, i thought he’d make slightly more of an impact than a 13L 4th. He did travel well though and maybe the 3m in testing conditions stretched him slightly. He drops back to 2m 5f tomorrow, albeit on a very stamina sapping course and that could just help him. The form of his Chepstow runs looks reasonable so far, he had a subsequent winner in behind and the 2nd placed horse Ugly Bug ran well from his revised mark today. He’s been dropped 1lb for that last run and drops in grade tomorrow (this looks a lot easier than last time out imo). Theres a question mark over a few of the others in the field, with 4 of the runners returning from lengthy breaks, American Life ran today so he is a an unlikely runner, as you can see this looks a winnable class 3 event.
Top Offer was well backed, looked to be going well but didn't get the cleanest of passages, once he did get going it was a little late and finished a couple of lengths back in 4th. One to watch nto for sure Pure Science was very disappointing, went off a 5/2 shot but looked beat a long way from home, not sure if it was the ground, course or trip but it was certainly a step in the wrong direction. I did go to Towcester today though which was an enjoyable day, found 5 winner between me the Mrs which made things abit better. A couple at big prices thanks to people on this forum! Staked: 60pts Returned: 109.69ts P/L: +49.69pts One selection for tomorrow to follow....
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