Lodge's Thread

[Lodge]

I've been meaning to set up my own thread for a while now. I'm a regular poster in the daily threads, so fancy having my own little bit of space to keep things organised. I'm a fan of all kinds of racing, so this is not a specialisation thread in any way, although it may help work out which codes i'm more profitable in! I'm hoping that recording my bets in this way will also help me be more disciplined. I must admit that i bet most days so will have regular selections and i will also try to mix it up with some other stuff such as horses going into my notebook. My selection process is generally based about finding value, i tend to try and study the form and take early prices which i feel represent value, therefore most of my bets will be posted the evening before they race. I'll use a points staking system (generally 1pt or 2pt) for each bet, and generally only bet win only. Fingers crossed this will prove as successful as some of the other excellent threads on here!

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread I have 2 selections for tomorrow to get things started :hope Both taken from tomorrows daily thread: 12.40 - Catterick - Rick 2pts @ 7/2 BetVictor This looks a massive price to me for a runner who shaped very well last time out. He was very well backed last time out and went extremely well for a long way, O'Regan gave him a good positive ride in the first time blinkers and he jumped boldly and travelled well. He hit as low as 1.49 in running but probably found the extended 2m 4f a little too far and weakened late on finishing 3rd. That race looked a good little contest to me with a number of unexposed/progressive types so the fact he was beaten 12L by the winner is no disgrace at all. He steps back in trip to 2m 3f which should be about perfect for him, he wears the blinkers again which seemed to have a positive effect last time out and Denis O'Regan is also onboard once more. He's been dropped a further 3lbs by the handicapper which looks generous to me and the fact he was a high class hurdler in Ireland rated 143 at his peak suggests to me he could progress from his mark of 122. I personally had this one as favourite so 7/2 looks very good value. 2.50 - Fakenham - Rocky Elsom 1pt @ 11/1 BetVicor One at abit of a price i fancy to run well tomorrow is Rocky Elsom. I think his last run was quite abit better than the bare result. He finished 8th in an 11 runner field beaten 22L but it was quite a competitive class 3 novice handicap and he was running 5lbs out of the handicap. The form of that race has worked out well with 2 subsequent winners and a few placed horses coming out of the race. Tomorrows race is a fair bit weaker being a class 4 (0-110) event and he effectively runs off a 7lb lower mark being eased 2lb by the handicapper for that latest run. He managed to win a couple of low grade handicap hurdles off this kind of mark earlier this year and there should still be more to come after only 2 starts over fences. Tom Cannon replaces a 5lb claimer on board and he rides the odd winner for this yard. Of the others i fancy Ninfea to go better back in trip, and Looks Like Slim has good claims but at the prices i fancy the David Arbuthnot runner.

[Karijini]

Re: Lodge's Thread Best of luck Lodge! If your selections from the PL Tipster competition are anything to go by, you should do very well indeed at early prices.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Best of luck Lodge! If your selections from the PL Tipster competition are anything to go by, you should do very well indeed at early prices.

Thanks, i struggle in that competition having to take SP. Definitely worth entering though with all those prizes!

[Karijini]

Re: Lodge's Thread You do better than you think. For 2013 Selections: 108 Wins: 32 (29.6% Strikerate) Placed: 64 (59.3% Strikerate) At Betfair SP 1pt Level stakes Win P/L: +39.10 (ROI 36.2%) Place P/L: +8.11 (ROI 7.5%) Nothing wrong with that! Perhaps its more to do with the staking.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

You do better than you think. For 2013 Selections: 108 Wins: 32 (29.6% Strikerate) Placed: 64 (59.3% Strikerate) At Betfair SP 1pt Level stakes Win P/L: +39.10 (ROI 36.2%) Place P/L: +8.11 (ROI 7.5%) Nothing wrong with that! Perhaps its more to do with the staking.

Thanks for those stats, very interesting. I feel i have improved a lot over the last few months, i had a break over the summer and have certainly try to be more disciplined now in terms of how many selections i make, trying to cut out some of those loser which i perhaps shouldn't have backed.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

I have 2 selections for tomorrow to get things started :hope Both taken from tomorrows daily thread: 12.40 - Catterick - Rick 2pts @ 7/2 BetVictor This looks a massive price to me for a runner who shaped very well last time out. He was very well backed last time out and went extremely well for a long way, O'Regan gave him a good positive ride in the first time blinkers and he jumped boldly and travelled well. He hit as low as 1.49 in running but probably found the extended 2m 4f a little too far and weakened late on finishing 3rd. That race looked a good little contest to me with a number of unexposed/progressive types so the fact he was beaten 12L by the winner is no disgrace at all. He steps back in trip to 2m 3f which should be about perfect for him, he wears the blinkers again which seemed to have a positive effect last time out and Denis O'Regan is also onboard once more. He's been dropped a further 3lbs by the handicapper which looks generous to me and the fact he was a high class hurdler in Ireland rated 143 at his peak suggests to me he could progress from his mark of 122. I personally had this one as favourite so 7/2 looks very good value. 2.50 - Fakenham - Rocky Elsom 1pt @ 11/1 BetVicor One at abit of a price i fancy to run well tomorrow is Rocky Elsom. I think his last run was quite abit better than the bare result. He finished 8th in an 11 runner field beaten 22L but it was quite a competitive class 3 novice handicap and he was running 5lbs out of the handicap. The form of that race has worked out well with 2 subsequent winners and a few placed horses coming out of the race. Tomorrows race is a fair bit weaker being a class 4 (0-110) event and he effectively runs off a 7lb lower mark being eased 2lb by the handicapper for that latest run. He managed to win a couple of low grade handicap hurdles off this kind of mark earlier this year and there should still be more to come after only 2 starts over fences. Tom Cannon replaces a 5lb claimer on board and he rides the odd winner for this yard. Of the others i fancy Ninfea to go better back in trip, and Looks Like Slim has good claims but at the prices i fancy the David Arbuthnot runner.

Well could that have started any worse? :$ Rick was fairly well backed (2/1 SP) and i thought he looked like he was going okay, then seemed to just become outpaced a long way from home, found nothing after encouragement from O'Regan and tailed off. Rocky Elsom was very strong in the market, went off 7/2 joint-fav. Look sluggish in rear early on and was hampered and i think unseated Tom Cannon at about the 3rd - It was hard to tell with the poor coverage and even worse commentary i had on my laptop! It can only get better!

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Profit/Loss Staked: 3pts Returned: 0pts P/L: -3pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread I have 2 selections for tomorrow both running at Lingfield. 12.30 - Lingfield - Swift Blade 1pt @ 15/2 BetVictor Swift Blade was an eye-catcher of mine last time out over this C&D in a very similar race to this. He travelled well and although you could see Robert Winston wanted to try and not to leave him with too much to do, he never really managed it and it wasn’t until they got right round the turn the gaps started to appear, he did run on very well though and made up a few lengths on the front few in the final furlong and was only eventually beaten 1/2L. I don’t necessarily feel that the form of that race will be that strong but this doesn’t look the best class 5 race either, with many of these usually contesting class 6 races. He looks to have dropped to a nice mark and was unchanged for that run meaning that he is only 2lb above his last winning mark. The headgear he wore last time out is retained and it seemed to have a positive effect. My Main concern is probably the draw of stall 14. As i mentioned he met trouble last time and drawn that wide means its likely he’s going to have to come late once more, and i personally find Lingfield a track which you see a lot of ‘unlucky’ horses at. I’m banking on this one having some luck in running 3.40 - Lingfield - Echo Brava 1pt @ 11/2 BetVictor I actually think the finale apprentice handicap is a good little competitive race and the one i fancy is Echo Brava. He picked up a handicap earlier in the summer off a 2lb lower mark and he looks to getting closer to scoring again. He was 2nd in his penultimate run in a fairly weak race at Kempton and stepped up on that effort again when 3rd in a better race over C&D lto. He was fairly keen early on and travelled 3 wide throughout but did well to chase home the well backed Luca Cumani horse who stole abit of a lead under a good ride by Adam Kirby. He was beaten by less than 2L and had the rest of the field strung out behind. The race he ran in last time was a class 4 handicap so he’ll probably find a class 5 apprentice race slightly easier. He has a very experienced claimer aboard and although i’m not his biggest fan he did ride 2 winners at this track last week. Of the others: I tipped up Special Mix last week, however his race was cancelled due to the fog, he may outrun his odds but i’d prefer to see him over 10f with a better jockey booked. The other one i also thought about backing was Cabuchon, he looks to be on a winning mark but his form isn’t quite as strong as Echo Brava i feel, he does have a very good 5lb claimer aboard in Eoin Walsh and the David Evans yard are in good form though.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Looking at the rest of tomorrows action: I notice that Aqua Ardens is being turned out again quickly in the 3.10. I tipped him up Monday where he was well backed and finished 2nd, i’m gonna stay clear of him this time even though i think he’s well handicapped. Not had a proper look at the jumps cards but Midnight Prayer should make a bold bid to make up for his fall last time out in the 12.40 at Newbery. He was going very well when unseating and gets another go off the same mark. 2/1 isn't a great price in a competitive race though.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

I have 2 selections for tomorrow both running at Lingfield. 12.30 - Lingfield - Swift Blade 1pt @ 15/2 BetVictor Swift Blade was an eye-catcher of mine last time out over this C&D in a very similar race to this. He travelled well and although you could see Robert Winston wanted to try and not to leave him with too much to do, he never really managed it and it wasn’t until they got right round the turn the gaps started to appear, he did run on very well though and made up a few lengths on the front few in the final furlong and was only eventually beaten 1/2L. I don’t necessarily feel that the form of that race will be that strong but this doesn’t look the best class 5 race either, with many of these usually contesting class 6 races. He looks to have dropped to a nice mark and was unchanged for that run meaning that he is only 2lb above his last winning mark. The headgear he wore last time out is retained and it seemed to have a positive effect. My Main concern is probably the draw of stall 14. As i mentioned he met trouble last time and drawn that wide means its likely he’s going to have to come late once more, and i personally find Lingfield a track which you see a lot of ‘unlucky’ horses at. I’m banking on this one having some luck in running 3.40 - Lingfield - Echo Brava 1pt @ 11/2 BetVictor I actually think the finale apprentice handicap is a good little competitive race and the one i fancy is Echo Brava. He picked up a handicap earlier in the summer off a 2lb lower mark and he looks to getting closer to scoring again. He was 2nd in his penultimate run in a fairly weak race at Kempton and stepped up on that effort again when 3rd in a better race over C&D lto. He was fairly keen early on and travelled 3 wide throughout but did well to chase home the well backed Luca Cumani horse who stole abit of a lead under a good ride by Adam Kirby. He was beaten by less than 2L and had the rest of the field strung out behind. The race he ran in last time was a class 4 handicap so he’ll probably find a class 5 apprentice race slightly easier. He has a very experienced claimer aboard and although i’m not his biggest fan he did ride 2 winners at this track last week. Of the others: I tipped up Special Mix last week, however his race was cancelled due to the fog, he may outrun his odds but i’d prefer to see him over 10f with a better jockey booked. The other one i also thought about backing was Cabuchon, he looks to be on a winning mark but his form isn’t quite as strong as Echo Brava i feel, he does have a very good 5lb claimer aboard in Eoin Walsh and the David Evans yard are in good form though.

We have a winner :cow and a nice little drift to go with it. Swift Blade ran respectively and probably shaped better than the bare result. I thought a 14 runner handicap might be run at a decent pace, but they went very slowly. Winston held Swift Blade up 3 wide in mid division but decided to take up the running after a couple of furlongs, he travelled well enough but didn't find masses for pressure and weakened a furlong or so out. The time was a couple of seconds slower than last time out over C&D. I'm going to add him to my notebook, its likely he'll be dropped a 1lb or 2 for that effort and in strongly run race over 2m he should be able to pick up a race. Echo Brava on the other hand won well under a good ride from Ross Atkinson, he was very patient and came with a good run to mug Special Mix and Keene in the final furlong. He actually drifted to 7/1 which was an added bonus, Hugh Taylor tipped up another runner in the race which was maybe why. Profit/Loss Staked: 5pts Returned: 8pts P/L: +3pts

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Lodge's Thread Backed EB myself mate, thought the 7/1 was great value. Well done.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3.10 - Towcester - Carli King 1pt @ 2/1 Bet365 This isn't my usual type of bet as this probably isn't a 'value' selection but i'd be lying if i said i wasn't very sweet on this ones chances, on what is his handicap debut. A quick look of his form figures probably wouldn’t inspire too much confident but when you delve a little deeper and take into account the ability of the opposition he has taken on so far, you can fully understand why he has been fairly well beaten. On his Rules debut over fences last month, he was last of 3 in a beginners chase, beaten 25 lengths but was taking on 2 high class horses in Raya Star and Tanerko Emery. His next 2 starts came in quick succession and tell a very similar story, in his 2nd start he was beaten by Valco De Touzaine and Buthelezi and in his latest start he was no match for Funny Star and Ericht but got close to the 124 rated Bar De Ligne without being given a hard time. Funny Star the winner of that recent race has since come out and won off a mark of 137 which is a good pointer to the strength of that race. I feel that the handicapper has taken quite a big chance allotting him an opening mark of 98, considering his unexposed profile and his 3 respectable runs to date. The mark allows him entry to this class 5 (0-100) race and it does look a particularly weak race to me. He’s also stepped up in trip slightly by his trainer Caroline Bailey and i have a feeling that could just suit him, he was outpaced by the 2 horses that pulled clear last time out and the extra furlong round a stiff track could play into his hands. His jumping looks solid for an inexperienced horse and i feel a right handed track may suit him better (jumped marginally right on occasions) My one big underlying concern is the form of his trainer Caroline Bailey. She has not had a single winner from 59 runners in the 2013/14 season and when you compare that to her 11% strike rate last season that is very disappointing (19% Strike rate for Chasers). Its worth noting though that Robert Thornton is booked to ride (has rode winners for the yard before) and he has a very good record at this course (19% career strike rate). The bookies have certainly taken no chances with the price on this one (i must admit i was hoping for nearer 4/1) but i have a good feeling that he’ll be able to win this weak affair.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread I have a 2nd selection tomorrow which also runs at Towcester 1.10 - Towcester - Beaujolais 1pt @ 9/1 Skybet This race hinges around Faith Keeper, if he turns up in the similar mood as he did last week on his chase debut he could well make his short price look good value. He has to shoulder a 7lb penalty but Conor Shoemark's 5lb claim negates most of that and he is well worth that claim, he won with any amount in hand that day and should go very close here. I personally have a slight question mark over what he actually beat, most of the field were beaten a very long way from home and this race looks abit stronger with unexposed chasers from a few of the top yards entered. The horse i fancy to give him abit of a run for his money is Beaujolais, he comes from a yard a i keep a close eye on, John Ferguson. He makes his chase debut tomorrow and has shown bits and pieces of form in bumpers and a number of runs in Novice hurdles. He's had 4 starts over hurdles already this season, his first run came over a similar distance to tomorrow and he chased home a few decent horses in Oscar Fortune (subsequent winner, rated 131), Beachfire (stablemate, rated 128) and Present View (subsequent winner, rated 125+), he was beaten about 20L but wasn't given a hard time and may have needed the run. He then went on to finish a close 3rd not back at 2m, beating 2 subsequent winners including stablemate Price Siegfried. In his 3rd run he ran to a similar level of form behind 2 subsequent winners and his run was actually looked at by the stewards, after a considerate ride by O'Regan. And in his most recent outing he ran okay behind a useful looking McCain horse. All in all nothing special and his handicap mark of 110 would probably sum that form up fairly well. However tomorrow he goes chasing, and i feel this horse could be the type to improve for that. He was a points winner over in Ireland, and he steps back up in trip tomorrow to a stamina test which will hopefully suit him. I find it interesting that he is pitched straight into a handicap, perhaps suggesting he could be ready to take advantage of his opening mark at the first time of asking. Denis O'Regan comes to Towcester for the one ride and blinkers are applied to the horse for the first time. The market will probably be a good guide to his chances but at 9/1 i feel he's worth a small interest.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

3.10 - Towcester - Carli King 1pt @ 2/1 Bet365 This isn't my usual type of bet as this probably isn't a 'value' selection but i'd be lying if i said i wasn't very sweet on this ones chances, on what is his handicap debut. A quick look of his form figures probably wouldn’t inspire too much confident but when you delve a little deeper and take into account the ability of the opposition he has taken on so far, you can fully understand why he has been fairly well beaten. On his Rules debut over fences last month, he was last of 3 in a beginners chase, beaten 25 lengths but was taking on 2 high class horses in Raya Star and Tanerko Emery. His next 2 starts came in quick succession and tell a very similar story, in his 2nd start he was beaten by Valco De Touzaine and Buthelezi and in his latest start he was no match for Funny Star and Ericht but got close to the 124 rated Bar De Ligne without being given a hard time. Funny Star the winner of that recent race has since come out and won off a mark of 137 which is a good pointer to the strength of that race. I feel that the handicapper has taken quite a big chance allotting him an opening mark of 98, considering his unexposed profile and his 3 respectable runs to date. The mark allows him entry to this class 5 (0-100) race and it does look a particularly weak race to me. He’s also stepped up in trip slightly by his trainer Caroline Bailey and i have a feeling that could just suit him, he was outpaced by the 2 horses that pulled clear last time out and the extra furlong round a stiff track could play into his hands. His jumping looks solid for an inexperienced horse and i feel a right handed track may suit him better (jumped marginally right on occasions) My one big underlying concern is the form of his trainer Caroline Bailey. She has not had a single winner from 59 runners in the 2013/14 season and when you compare that to her 11% strike rate last season that is very disappointing (19% Strike rate for Chasers). Its worth noting though that Robert Thornton is booked to ride (has rode winners for the yard before) and he has a very good record at this course (19% career strike rate). The bookies have certainly taken no chances with the price on this one (i must admit i was hoping for nearer 4/1) but i have a good feeling that he’ll be able to win this weak affair.

I have a 2nd selection tomorrow which also runs at Towcester 1.10 - Towcester - Beaujolais 1pt @ 9/1 Skybet This race hinges around Faith Keeper, if he turns up in the similar mood as he did last week on his chase debut he could well make his short price look good value. He has to shoulder a 7lb penalty but Conor Shoemark's 5lb claim negates most of that and he is well worth that claim, he won with any amount in hand that day and should go very close here. I personally have a slight question mark over what he actually beat, most of the field were beaten a very long way from home and this race looks abit stronger with unexposed chasers from a few of the top yards entered. The horse i fancy to give him abit of a run for his money is Beaujolais, he comes from a yard a i keep a close eye on, John Ferguson. He makes his chase debut tomorrow and has shown bits and pieces of form in bumpers and a number of runs in Novice hurdles. He's had 4 starts over hurdles already this season, his first run came over a similar distance to tomorrow and he chased home a few decent horses in Oscar Fortune (subsequent winner, rated 131), Beachfire (stablemate, rated 128) and Present View (subsequent winner, rated 125+), he was beaten about 20L but wasn't given a hard time and may have needed the run. He then went on to finish a close 3rd not back at 2m, beating 2 subsequent winners including stablemate Price Siegfried. In his 3rd run he ran to a similar level of form behind 2 subsequent winners and his run was actually looked at by the stewards, after a considerate ride by O'Regan. And in his most recent outing he ran okay behind a useful looking McCain horse. All in all nothing special and his handicap mark of 110 would probably sum that form up fairly well. However tomorrow he goes chasing, and i feel this horse could be the type to improve for that. He was a points winner over in Ireland, and he steps back up in trip tomorrow to a stamina test which will hopefully suit him. I find it interesting that he is pitched straight into a handicap, perhaps suggesting he could be ready to take advantage of his opening mark at the first time of asking. Denis O'Regan comes to Towcester for the one ride and blinkers are applied to the horse for the first time. The market will probably be a good guide to his chances but at 9/1 i feel he's worth a small interest.

Hmmm, apologies for the poor showing today, it was even more disappointing that i actually went to Towcester today. Beaujolais was a massive negative in the market and although we got the odds on fav beat (fell, but was never travelling that convincingly) he finished a well beat 5th. He didn't travel all that badly but found nothing, maybe the step up in trip in testing ground wasn't in his favour but i can't imagine John Ferguson will be persisting with him for much longer after that showing. Carli King was even more of a let down. He did manage to come home 2nd but you could tell a long way from home that he was beat. He was fairly well backed swell and went off 11/8 favourite, i certainly wouldn't be going near another Caroline Bailey runner anytime soon. Of the other races, i was quite impressed with the Kim Bailey trained Knockanrawley who just lost out to AP on Mountain Tunes in the 13.40, and i'll certainly keep an eye out for him in the future. He was 1 of the 4 2nd placed horses i managed to find on course today though :wall Staked: 7pts Returned: 8pts P/L: +1pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Back to the safety of the AW tomorrow i think! 5.55 - Wolverhampton - Ellaal 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I put this one in my notebook earlier this year as a horse that will probably pick up a handicap when the money is down. He won for Charlie Hills as a 2yo, but has been with the shrewd yard of Ruth Carr since the start of the season. He was rated 78 back in April, and i didn't quite expect him to need to drop right down to a mark in the 40's to win once more but it looks that way. He's gone off at massive odds in his first 10 starts this season, but the money came last time and he ran a very good race coming from a little way off the pace to come home in 3rd beaten by a head. He does come up against the horse that finished just ahead of him off the same weights tomorrow but the way the race panned out i feel that Ellaal is the one to stick with. He was drawn wide and therefore had to travel wide throughout and his jockey left him with a fair bit to do in the last couple of furlongs, with Martin Harley trying to nick the race from the front on Classy Trick. However as i mentioned he battled on well and he'd have gone past the 2 horses ahead of him with a couple more strides. He runs off the same mark tomorrow and he surely must go close again. 6/1 doesn't look a bad price in a weakish race. 6.30 - Wolverhampton - Short Shrift 1pt @ 9/2 Bet365 My other selection comes from the Richard Fahey yard and i feel he's interesting returned to a handicap. He showed plenty of promise on his first start for the yard over this C&D in a maiden last month. He and 2 others pulled clear, and the form of that race looks solid enough, with the winner since placed off 73, and the 2nd placed horse winning well off a mark of 65. He goes back into the handicap off a mark of 62 and considering he's still open to improvement (only had 5 career starts) i feel he should run well. I think the fact he's been picked up by the Richard Fahey yard also suggest theres a race or 2 in him. Again this doesn't look a strong class 6 event which shouldn't take much winning.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Back to the safety of the AW tomorrow i think! 5.55 - Wolverhampton - Ellaal 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I put this one in my notebook earlier this year as a horse that will probably pick up a handicap when the money is down. He won for Charlie Hills as a 2yo, but has been with the shrewd yard of Ruth Carr since the start of the season. He was rated 78 back in April, and i didn't quite expect him to need to drop right down to a mark in the 40's to win once more but it looks that way. He's gone off at massive odds in his first 10 starts this season, but the money came last time and he ran a very good race coming from a little way off the pace to come home in 3rd beaten by a head. He does come up against the horse that finished just ahead of him off the same weights tomorrow but the way the race panned out i feel that Ellaal is the one to stick with. He was drawn wide and therefore had to travel wide throughout and his jockey left him with a fair bit to do in the last couple of furlongs, with Martin Harley trying to nick the race from the front on Classy Trick. However as i mentioned he battled on well and he'd have gone past the 2 horses ahead of him with a couple more strides. He runs off the same mark tomorrow and he surely must go close again. 6/1 doesn't look a bad price in a weakish race. 6.30 - Wolverhampton - Short Shrift 1pt @ 9/2 Bet365 My other selection comes from the Richard Fahey yard and i feel he's interesting returned to a handicap. He showed plenty of promise on his first start for the yard over this C&D in a maiden last month. He and 2 others pulled clear, and the form of that race looks solid enough, with the winner since placed off 73, and the 2nd placed horse winning well off a mark of 65. He goes back into the handicap off a mark of 62 and considering he's still open to improvement (only had 5 career starts) i feel he should run well. I think the fact he's been picked up by the Richard Fahey yard also suggest theres a race or 2 in him. Again this doesn't look a strong class 6 event which shouldn't take much winning.

Not a bad day with 1 of the 2 selections winning :D The 17.55 worked out exactly as i had hoped, Ellaal was up with the pace, set by Classy Trick once again, he hit the front a furlong or so out and never looked like losing. Good ride by Dale Swift :clap he went off at an SP of 5/1 which surprised me slightly, thought he'd have been abit shorter. Short Shrift was a drifter, travelled well enough but didn't find much for pressure. I reckon a step back in trip is order, maybe back to the shorter 9f at Wolverhampton. Takes the thread into a nice profit ready for the weekend. Tomorrows selections to follow in a while. Staked: 9pts Returned: 15pts P/L: +6pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3 selections for a busy Saturday: 12.00 - Haydock - Leviathan 1pt @ 11/2 Bet365 I felt Leviathan ran a really good race last time out and if he can back that up i reckon he'll take some beating tomorrow. He travelled eye-catchingly well (traded around evens in running) under top weight and he was only beaten a few lengths back in 4th by a clearly well handicapped rival. He's been raised 1lb for that run which shouldn't make a massive difference especially as he's still an unexposed horse in this sphere. He has some useful form as a Novice and i think he'll relish the soft ground tomorrow. Liam Treadwell rides for Venetia Williams and they have a great strike rate together. 13.25 - Lingfield - Drawnfromthepast 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365 Its a shame i missed out on the massive prices available earlier but i couldn't resist a bet. I'm gonna forgive his latest run on his debut for this yard, firstly because it was over 6f and secondly because it was on the back of a 103 day break. He has a cracking record on the polytrack with 9 wins from 30 runs, including 4 at this track and 2 over C&D. He won 3 5f claimers at this time last year and proved on a couple of occasions since he's capable back in handicaps off higher marks. The handicapper has given him a chance and he's now off a mark of 67 (6lb below last winning mark) and Jim Crowley is a positive jockey booking for the Luke Dace yard who had a nice winner for me at this course the other day. He's getting on in age but he clearly still has some ability, he has a nice draw and i really feel the return to 5f will see him go close. 15.15 - Haydock - Pineau De Re 1pt @ 9/2 BetVictor I backed this one last weekend and it was annoying to see him bump into a very well handicapped horse. He and the winner pulled 20L clear of a decent little field and if he's in the same form he'll take all the beating off the same mark. He travelled like a dream and i thought Richard Johnson had given him the perfect ride (traded odds on in running) but he didn't quite find as much in the run in as the winner, and tomorrow he gets what should be perfect conditions - 3m on soft ground. Jason Maguire is booked for the ride and i'd be surprised if he doesnt go very close.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

3 selections for a busy Saturday: 12.00 - Haydock - Leviathan 1pt @ 11/2 Bet365 I felt Leviathan ran a really good race last time out and if he can back that up i reckon he'll take some beating tomorrow. He travelled eye-catchingly well (traded around evens in running) under top weight and he was only beaten a few lengths back in 4th by a clearly well handicapped rival. He's been raised 1lb for that run which shouldn't make a massive difference especially as he's still an unexposed horse in this sphere. He has some useful form as a Novice and i think he'll relish the soft ground tomorrow. Liam Treadwell rides for Venetia Williams and they have a great strike rate together. 13.25 - Lingfield - Drawnfromthepast 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365 Its a shame i missed out on the massive prices available earlier but i couldn't resist a bet. I'm gonna forgive his latest run on his debut for this yard, firstly because it was over 6f and secondly because it was on the back of a 103 day break. He has a cracking record on the polytrack with 9 wins from 30 runs, including 4 at this track and 2 over C&D. He won 3 5f claimers at this time last year and proved on a couple of occasions since he's capable back in handicaps off higher marks. The handicapper has given him a chance and he's now off a mark of 67 (6lb below last winning mark) and Jim Crowley is a positive jockey booking for the Luke Dace yard who had a nice winner for me at this course the other day. He's getting on in age but he clearly still has some ability, he has a nice draw and i really feel the return to 5f will see him go close. 15.15 - Haydock - Pineau De Re 1pt @ 9/2 BetVictor I backed this one last weekend and it was annoying to see him bump into a very well handicapped horse. He and the winner pulled 20L clear of a decent little field and if he's in the same form he'll take all the beating off the same mark. He travelled like a dream and i thought Richard Johnson had given him the perfect ride (traded odds on in running) but he didn't quite find as much in the run in as the winner, and tomorrow he gets what should be perfect conditions - 3m on soft ground. Jason Maguire is booked for the ride and i'd be surprised if he doesnt go very close.

A mixed bag today... Started off in perfect fashion with Leviathan grinding out a win in the opener. Fairly big rule 4 (35p) but still returned at better than 7/2. Drawnfromthepast went agonisingly close, mugged in the final strides :cryWould have landed a few bets as well by the looks of things going off at 6/1. And finally Pineau De Re who was slightly disappointing. I'm willing to let him off as it was his 2nd race in under a week and it was a competitive race on testing ground. He's definitely one to keep an eye on though. Staked: 12pts Returned: 19.58pts P/L: +7.58pts (63.2% ROI)

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread One selection for tomorrow so far: 2.00 - Lingfield - Polydamos 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365 Polydamos shaped like he had a low grade handicap in him last time out, and at 7/1 i feel he's decent bet to break his maiden tag tomorrow. I think his stamina was stretched slightly over 12f at Kempton last time out, although he travelled well enough it was clear he was weakening in the final furlong or 2. I didn't think he'd quite be dropped back to 1m, but in all honesty the only time he's ever got close to winning a handicap was the time before over 1m at Kempton in a slightly better race. He was only beaten 2L and races off a 2lb lower mark tomorrow. He's drawn well which will hopefully mean he's not stuck too far back as i'm always abit weary of hold up horses in large fields at Lingfield. King of the AW Adam Kirby rides for Tony Carroll which is also a positive and i'd be surprised if this one doesn't at least give a good run for his money. Just as a side note this race is one of Bet365's 4/1+ odds race where you get a free bet on the next qualifying race if your horse wins at 4/1 or greater. So hopefully he'll win and i'll get a free bet on the 3.10 at Bangor.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread I think the above will be my only bet for tomorrow as its an inspiring days racing! I am however going to get in there with an early bet in the King George VI on Boxing Day King George VI - Kempton - Silviniaco Conti 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I've had a bet on Silviniaco Conti this evening for the King George, simply because if we get the rain thats forecast then he's going to be a shorter price than this on Thursday and he is my fancy for this race. I think he ran a really good race on his seasonal re-appearance in the Betfair Chase and although he takes on the 2 horses which finished ahead of him (Dynaste and Cue Card) he really wasn't beaten far and he should certainly come on for that run. The front 3 all travelled and jumped really well and there wasn't much between them at the finish, and i can't see much separating them on Thursday so i feel Silviniaco Conti is worth a bet at the prices. If the rain comes and the ground is soft then conditions will be absolutely spot on and i expect him to go very close. I'm happy taking Cue Card on at the prices, he had the benefit of going into the Betfair chase with a run and was therefore probably a shade fitter than my selections a few of the others, plus there was some worrying news coming out of the stable regarding a bug in the yard this week. I can't understand why Al Ferof is so short personally, Nicholls says he can't really choose between the pair, but i think he'll have to come on quite abit from his seasonal re-appearance as his jumping wasn't that visually impressive to me. He clearly deserves his place in this field and is certainly a danger. Dynaste surprised me with his run in the Betfair, like Conti he was making his seasonal re-appearance and is open to improvement. I wouldn't be backing him at half the odds of SC though. The rest look to have a little to find on form.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Another selection for todays racing: 3.40 - Bangor - Princess Bella 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 This is a horse i've had in my notebook for a while and while i wouldn't normally bet on a bumper, at the prices i'm going to have a small interest. She's had 2 starts to date that came earlier in the year and showed plenty of promise on both occasions. She traded around evens on debut before fading in the closing stages and in her 2nd start she was very unfortunate to clip heels and fall 4f out when she was still travelling well. The form of that race has worked out well enough too, the winner The Pirate's Queen is clearly a smart Alan King inmate who has since come 2nd in a mares listed hurdle. She did have an entry in a bumper at Cheltenham in the Open Meeting back in November but was unfortunately lame, but that could be a suggestion that A. she's an above average bumper runner and B. she has the stamina for a testing 2m which will be needed today on the heavy ground. The ground is a slight worry for me considering both her runs to date have been on good ground. And i'm not sure Fergal O'Brien would be running her if he felt she wouldn't like the ground. The 2 horses at the front of the market both come from yards that can ready a new-comer but they're both making their racecourse debut today and Fergal O'Brien has a great record in this sphere in his own right (10-54 in the past year, 18.52% Strike Rate)

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Adam Kirby :wall did exactly what i said i was worried about in my write up, left Polydamos with a little to much to do. The eventual winner had a slightly better run into the home turn and made the most of that length or 2 he got. The pair finished 2-3L clear. Went off at 4/1 SP so at least i found abit of value. Princess Bella didn't seem to go on the ground at-all. Less said the better. Pre- Christmas round up for you... [TABLE=width: 150]

[TR] [TD]Staked[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Returns[/TD] [TD=align: right]19.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD=align: right]+5.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ROI %[/TD] [TD=align: right]39.85714286[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][TABLE=width: 150] [TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike Rate %[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.07692308[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Already put up my tip for the King George, back in a few days with selections for Boxing Day Have a good Christmas all :cheers

[Lodge]

2.50 - Wincanton - Shuil Royale 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 Apologies in advance for the short write up, it is Christmas though after all! I've followed this horse for quite a while now and I feel he is worth backing after a very good run last time out. He was 2nd in what I feel was quite a strong race, beaten only 3L by an unexposed and clearly well handicapped rival. He remains on the same mark for that run and has actually won off this mark as recently as March (albeit in a weaker race than this). Also worth noting he loves this course and has won at Wincanton 3 times from 4 runs. Brendan Powell is a very good jockey booking and I feel Shuil Royale will run well tomorrow.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Morning guys! Soo much racing today and i probably won't be able to watch any of it :sad Just gonna stick to the 2 bets i've already had, not going to get too carried away. I did fancy Cape Tribulation in the big race at Wetherby but i'll sidestep that as its a tricky race and i did also think a horse called Garrahalish could go well at big odds in the novice hurdle at Towcester but theres a couple of useful rivals in that race and i'm not really an each way man. Selections for today: King George VI - Kempton - Silviniaco Conti 1pt @ 6/1 >Bet365 (price taken 21st Dec) 2.50 - Wincanton - Shuil Royale 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 (Price taken 25th Dec)

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Morning guys! Soo much racing today and i probably won't be able to watch any of it :sad Just gonna stick to the 2 bets i've already had, not going to get too carried away. I did fancy Cape Tribulation in the big race at Wetherby but i'll sidestep that as its a tricky race and i did also think a horse called Garrahalish could go well at big odds in the novice hurdle at Towcester but theres a couple of useful rivals in that race and i'm not really an each way man. Selections for today: King George VI - Kempton - Silviniaco Conti 1pt @ 6/1 >Bet365 (price taken 21st Dec) 2.50 - Wincanton - Shuil Royale 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 (Price taken 25th Dec)

Well, I managed to find a winner today, and even got to watch the race (the wonders of iPhones!) I'm really pleased Conti won, Cue Card ran another brilliant race and i thought he had it in the bag quite a way from home but my selection wore him down on that long straight. I haven't been able to watch the race again but most of the others seemed slightly disappointing? I didn't manage to watch Shuil Royale but he was well beat, i was slightly disappointed considering he went off at 10/3, maybe the slight step up in trip was against him. I will keep an eye on him as he'll be dropped a couple of lbs for that run and will undoubtably be able to pick up a class 4 chase over 3 miles. Bit annoyed i didn't back Garrahalish at Towcester which i mentioned above, he turned over the Henderson fav and won at an SP of 10/1 (was even bigger this morning). Just about to settle down to have a look at tomorrows racing so selections to follow later most probably. Profit/Loss Staked: 16pts Returned: 26.58pts P/L: +10.58pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3.40 - Kempton - Somemothersdohavem @ 18/1 BetVictor A really competitive handicap hurdle to finish things off tomorrow at Kempton and i'm going to chance my arm with an outsider. Somemothersdohavem was bought in July for £40k from John Ryan and is now with the Venetia Williams stable and i feel he looks a fairly interesting runner. He showed a reasonable level of form in staying handicaps on the flat and showed promise in his hurdling debut at Market Rasen in February. He then went on to win a juvenile event at Doncaster beating some useful opposition before running in the Triumph Hurdle at the festival which he was out of his depth in. He had 2 starts in handicaps after that in April, the first he was only beaten a neck in at Ascot off a mark of 123, and he then went and ran creditably, finishing 4th in a better race off his revised mark of 127 at Sandown. He hasn't been seen since but, as i have mentioned he has joined a really good yard who have been firing in the winners lately. He's only a 4yo, and has only had 5 starts over hurdles so he is open to plenty of improvement. I have no doubt he'll prove better than this handicap mark over time, and the fact he ran in the triumph hurdle probably suggests he was fairly highly thought of by his previous yard. The question marks over this horse are obviously whether he will be ready for this after 244 days off, which has to be taken on trust and the other is the ground, as he has done most of his hurdle racing on a sound surface, but at 18/1 i think its worth chancing. I'm not overly keen on any of the shorter priced runners, with many having quite a lot to prove in my opinion.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Todays selection hasn't ran yet but i'm already onto tomorrows racing: 2.35 - Chepstow - Highland Lodge 1pt @ 11.00 Betfair After managing to find the winner in the big race on Boxing Day i’m going to attempt to find the winner of the Welsh National. One horse that stood out to me instantly was Highland Lodge, he ran very well in the Hennessy and running off the same mark tomorrow he must have a great chance. He proved himself to be a useful novice last season and finished off his season at the Festival with a 6th placed in the amateur riders rice over the stamina sapping 32f. He was extremely well backed in his seasonal re-appearance at Wincanton (going off 6/4 in a 12 runner handicap) but found Standing Ovation just too good, although that is certainly no disgrace as the winner went and followed up in empathic style off a 12lb higher mark nto. Highland Lodge was put up 7lb before the Hennessy and went off 6/1 joint-fav, he ran really well in 4th and the form of that race has already proved to be very strong, with the likes of Theatre Guide, Houblon Des Obeaux, Cloudy Too, Loch Ba and Hadrians Approach amongst the horses who have won or been placed since. This isn’t as strong race as the Hennessy was so off the same mark i feel he must have a very good chance. I really like the fact that Tidal Bay runs in this, as he 10lbs higher rated than the rest of the field and that obviously puts a lot of horses down the bottom of the weights racing out of the handicap, making their job a little harder in theory. It also means my selection gets into this off a light weight (10-6) despite being rated in the mid 140’s. Even Teaforthree who is 10lb higher in the handicap than last year runs off a lighter weight. All in all i think 10/1 is fair price, conditions should be spot on (won on heavy ground twice) and i see no problem with this trip.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Poor run from todays selection, maybe one for the longer term... One selection up already for tomorrow, may have another one. Profit/Loss Staked: 17pts Returned: 26.58pts P/L: +9.58pts