Lodge's Thread

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 2.10 - Lingfield - Palace Moon 2pt @ 14/1 Bet365 Palace Moon is a horse that is certainly on a dangerous mark if getting things right. I backed this one last time out and he came in for abit of support (went from 16's into 8/1 SP from memory) so i don't thing his turn is too far away. He has a good record over this distance of 6f and has won over this C&D in the past which is a positive. I thought he showed more promise than any of his other recent starts last time out at Kempton. He was slowly away from a fairly wide draw and although he made some decent headway at around the furlong pole on the inside rail, his momentum was stopped by traffic as soon as he got going and he was never going to get through the wall of horses. He's been eased 2lb in the weights since and thats only going to help his chances. Jim Crowley and the trainer William Knight both have cracking record at Lingfield so i feel 14/1 about this horse is a very big price and is why i have gone with 2pt stake. He's drawn in stall 1 which if he breaks well is a big positive however, if he doesn't get away well and is stuck on the rail towards the rear i would fear for his chances, i've mentioned it in my thread before but i just can't stand it when my selection is in that sort of position at Lingfield, they always seem to meet trouble and get going too late.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Todays selection hasn't ran yet but i'm already onto tomorrows racing: 2.35 - Chepstow - Highland Lodge 1pt @ 11.00 Betfair After managing to find the winner in the big race on Boxing Day i’m going to attempt to find the winner of the Welsh National. One horse that stood out to me instantly was Highland Lodge, he ran very well in the Hennessy and running off the same mark tomorrow he must have a great chance. He proved himself to be a useful novice last season and finished off his season at the Festival with a 6th placed in the amateur riders rice over the stamina sapping 32f. He was extremely well backed in his seasonal re-appearance at Wincanton (going off 6/4 in a 12 runner handicap) but found Standing Ovation just too good, although that is certainly no disgrace as the winner went and followed up in empathic style off a 12lb higher mark nto. Highland Lodge was put up 7lb before the Hennessy and went off 6/1 joint-fav, he ran really well in 4th and the form of that race has already proved to be very strong, with the likes of Theatre Guide, Houblon Des Obeaux, Cloudy Too, Loch Ba and Hadrians Approach amongst the horses who have won or been placed since. This isn’t as strong race as the Hennessy was so off the same mark i feel he must have a very good chance. I really like the fact that Tidal Bay runs in this, as he 10lbs higher rated than the rest of the field and that obviously puts a lot of horses down the bottom of the weights racing out of the handicap, making their job a little harder in theory. It also means my selection gets into this off a light weight (10-6) despite being rated in the mid 140’s. Even Teaforthree who is 10lb higher in the handicap than last year runs off a lighter weight. All in all i think 10/1 is fair price, conditions should be spot on (won on heavy ground twice) and i see no problem with this trip.

2.10 - Lingfield - Palace Moon 2pt @ 14/1 Bet365 Palace Moon is a horse that is certainly on a dangerous mark if getting things right. I backed this one last time out and he came in for abit of support (went from 16's into 8/1 SP from memory) so i don't thing his turn is too far away. He has a good record over this distance of 6f and has won over this C&D in the past which is a positive. I thought he showed more promise than any of his other recent starts last time out at Kempton. He was slowly away from a fairly wide draw and although he made some decent headway at around the furlong pole on the inside rail, his momentum was stopped by traffic as soon as he got going and he was never going to get through the wall of horses. He's been eased 2lb in the weights since and thats only going to help his chances. Jim Crowley and the trainer William Knight both have cracking record at Lingfield so i feel 14/1 about this horse is a very big price and is why i have gone with 2pt stake. He's drawn in stall 1 which if he breaks well is a big positive however, if he doesn't get away well and is stuck on the rail towards the rear i would fear for his chances, i've mentioned it in my thread before but i just can't stand it when my selection is in that sort of position at Lingfield, they always seem to meet trouble and get going too late.

Well... i had high hopes for today but its been thoroughly disappointing :sad Jim Crowley - you now owe me big time! thats 2 Saturday's running you've hit the front abit early and been headed in the final strides at Lingfield. Palace Moon was very well backed once again and i thought he had it until the unexposed Balding horse nabbed him close home. Atleast i found abit of value with him going off at 5/1! Highland Lodge was also well backed but he went off very hard and i could tell a long way home he was never going to be able to keep it up, not sure where he finished but he was a way down the field i think. Think he must have gone off at an Betfair SP of around 7/1 so again at least i got on at a decent price. On to tomorrows racing, hopefully we can get back on track with a winner! Staked: 20pts Returned: 26.58pts P/L: +6.58pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3.30 - Southwell - Bapak Sayang 2pts @ 14/1 Bet365 My first selection for tomorrow comes from the AW. Bapak Sayang isn’t the most straightforward of horses but he does look well handicapped in my opinion. He was placed off marks nearly 10lb higher than this earlier in the summer so if he can put it all together tomorrow i see him having a great chance. On his penultimate start he make his fibresand debut over this C&D and he ran well given a fairly aggressive ride. Pulling clear with a few other rivals he was only beaten a couple of lengths in a better race than tomorrows. He went off favourite nto at Lingfield in a competitive little race, but probably went off too hard and set the race up for the hold up horses in behind. He’s been dropped 4lb since his last race over C&D, he’s unexposed on this surface and if he sees his race out abit better i can see him winning this. Not the strongest race for the grade either. I think Powerful Wind will be popular but his winning time was nearly 2 seconds slower than the C&D race my selection ran well in, and he has to give Bapak Sayang a fair amount of weight tomorrow. I was expecting around 8/1 so 14's looks far too big imo, hence the 2pt stake 1.35 - Kelso - Rocking Blues 1pt @ 7/2 Paddypower I have this as abit of a match up between Rocking Blues and Little Glenshee and my preference is for the former. He showed some reasonable over hurdles last season and was in the process of making a promising chase debut in November when falling at the last. He was chasing home the useful Coverholder who is now rated 140, and was battling it out for 2nd with a horse who has ran well since, despite falling late on, the 3rd place horse has since won by 7L, so the form looks solid to me. Last time out he was slightly disappointing over the minimum trip at Newcsatle, he pulled abit hard and therefore didn’t quite find as much as his backers would have hoped but again, he was beaten by a horse in good form who nearly went in nto off a 9lb higher mark. He’s been dropped a couple of lbs for that effort and i find it interesting that Jason Maguire is booked to ride him for the first time. He won a bumper over C&D and if he settles better i can see him going very close. As i mentioned Little Glenshee looks the danger, and on a line of form through Coverholder he has a very similar level of form, however i’d rather oppose him giving 10lb to my selection at the same prices.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

3.30 - Southwell - Bapak Sayang 2pts @ 14/1 Bet365 My first selection for tomorrow comes from the AW. Bapak Sayang isn’t the most straightforward of horses but he does look well handicapped in my opinion. He was placed off marks nearly 10lb higher than this earlier in the summer so if he can put it all together tomorrow i see him having a great chance. On his penultimate start he make his fibresand debut over this C&D and he ran well given a fairly aggressive ride. Pulling clear with a few other rivals he was only beaten a couple of lengths in a better race than tomorrows. He went off favourite nto at Lingfield in a competitive little race, but probably went off too hard and set the race up for the hold up horses in behind. He’s been dropped 4lb since his last race over C&D, he’s unexposed on this surface and if he sees his race out abit better i can see him winning this. Not the strongest race for the grade either. I think Powerful Wind will be popular but his winning time was nearly 2 seconds slower than the C&D race my selection ran well in, and he has to give Bapak Sayang a fair amount of weight tomorrow. I was expecting around 8/1 so 14's looks far too big imo, hence the 2pt stake 1.35 - Kelso - Rocking Blues 1pt @ 7/2 Paddypower I have this as abit of a match up between Rocking Blues and Little Glenshee and my preference is for the former. He showed some reasonable over hurdles last season and was in the process of making a promising chase debut in November when falling at the last. He was chasing home the useful Coverholder who is now rated 140, and was battling it out for 2nd with a horse who has ran well since, despite falling late on, the 3rd place horse has since won by 7L, so the form looks solid to me. Last time out he was slightly disappointing over the minimum trip at Newcsatle, he pulled abit hard and therefore didn’t quite find as much as his backers would have hoped but again, he was beaten by a horse in good form who nearly went in nto off a 9lb higher mark. He’s been dropped a couple of lbs for that effort and i find it interesting that Jason Maguire is booked to ride him for the first time. He won a bumper over C&D and if he settles better i can see him going very close. As i mentioned Little Glenshee looks the danger, and on a line of form through Coverholder he has a very similar level of form, however i’d rather oppose him giving 10lb to my selection at the same prices.

:eyes That rounds off a crap a weekend.... Rocking Blues was well backed, going off at 11/4. Thought he had a great chance when Little Glenshee and another rival fell but he never looking like winning when push came to shove. Needs a step in trip i feel. Bapak Sayang backed into an SP of 9/2 and came absolutely nowhere :eek Very frustrating... Had a quick look at tomorrows cards, will be back later with any selections

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Staked: 23pts Returned: 26.58pts P/L: +3.58pts In need of a winner or 2!

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 12.30 - Lingfield - Lady Who 1pt @ 12/1 Paddypower I always look for unexposed horses in these class 6 events and Lady Who fits right into that category. She showed promise in all 3 of the 1m polytrack maidens she contested earlier this year and in only her 2nd handicap start I feel she’ll go well. She changed hands from Ralph Beckett to the William Muir yard after those 3 runs and after a long break ran well enough on her handicap debut last month over 10f. She showed signs of greenness early on, and didn’t settle brilliantly however she travelled up well enough and was abit unlucky to be short of room when just starting to pick up on the straight, she wasn’t given a hard time thereafter and was beaten 5L by the winner. I didn’t think that was a bad effort considering the lay-off and provides something to build on. She drops back to 1m for tomorrows race which i think will suit her, at least at this point of her career. She’s been dropped 3lbs by the handicapper which is a bonus as it gets her into this class 6 event. The class 5 race she contested last time was quite strong, the winner followed up off a mark of 77 nto and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th have all ran well since. Overall i think that providing she settles well and gets the breaks in this race she’ll certainly outrun these odds. William Muir is in good form despite only having a few runners at this time of year (2 winners from last 3 runners) and they were both ridden by tomorrows jockey Martin Dwyer. She’s already been cut in price into 8/1 by bet365 so i feel this price offer good value.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

12.30 - Lingfield - Lady Who 1pt @ 12/1 Paddypower I always look for unexposed horses in these class 6 events and Lady Who fits right into that category. She showed promise in all 3 of the 1m polytrack maidens she contested earlier this year and in only her 2nd handicap start I feel she’ll go well. She changed hands from Ralph Beckett to the William Muir yard after those 3 runs and after a long break ran well enough on her handicap debut last month over 10f. She showed signs of greenness early on, and didn’t settle brilliantly however she travelled up well enough and was abit unlucky to be short of room when just starting to pick up on the straight, she wasn’t given a hard time thereafter and was beaten 5L by the winner. I didn’t think that was a bad effort considering the lay-off and provides something to build on. She drops back to 1m for tomorrows race which i think will suit her, at least at this point of her career. She’s been dropped 3lbs by the handicapper which is a bonus as it gets her into this class 6 event. The class 5 race she contested last time was quite strong, the winner followed up off a mark of 77 nto and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th have all ran well since. Overall i think that providing she settles well and gets the breaks in this race she’ll certainly outrun these odds. William Muir is in good form despite only having a few runners at this time of year (2 winners from last 3 runners) and they were both ridden by tomorrows jockey Martin Dwyer. She’s already been cut in price into 8/1 by bet365 so i feel this price offer good value.

Its runs like that, that make you wonder why you bother! :$ Never looking liked beating a rival... should have just backed the 11/4 favourite that was beaten 15L last time out :lol A horse i backed a couple of weeks ago, Swift Blade, runs again later in the 14.40 at Lingfield. Should go okay at around 10/1, also liked the look of Kings Request in the same race (16/1) but would prefer to see that one over 2m. No more betting for me today though

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread And now Swift Blade goes and rubs my nose in it :lol Kings Request also ran well, definitely worth a look next time...

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Staked: 24pts Returned: 26.58pts P/L: +2.58pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Some interesting handicaps to get stuck into at Lingfield tomorrow… 1.30 - Lingfield - Leitrim Pass 1pt @ 10/3 Bet365 I’ve followed Aqua Ardens for ages now and he shaped as if he’s not far from winning last time out but he finds too much traffic in running for my liking and that is never good at Lingfield. I’m going to side with Leitrim Pass, who has been very expensive to follow but could be worth sticking with. The 3yo is relatively unexposed and shaped on numerous occasions earlier in the year as if he had a handicap in him off this kind of mark. He won a mile maiden at Musselburgh on his 2nd starts before making the frame 3 times, the first over 7f at Kempton, the 2nd over 1m at Doncaster where he was a close 2nd off this mark and the 3rd where he was again 2nd over 10f off a mark of 76. He shaped as if something was wrong on his final start of the season and he has had a decent break since then so hopefully he will be okay now. He returns to polytrack over 1m which should suit him on the basis of his form. His handicap mark must be lenient in my opinion, he was only beaten 1/4L by a progressive Roger Varian runner off this mark and has gone off a short price in all handicap starts. He ran well enough on his first start this season to suggest the lack of of recent run won’t be in a problem and he could well have improved over that time. Gets into a slightly lower class race than he has been contesting and looks a worthy favourite to me. 2.30 - Lingfield - Kakatosi 1pt @ 6/1 William Hill I would be surprised if Nassau Storm isn’t a well backed favourite for this, when it all comes together he will win a race off this mark but while he is a short price and keeps finding trouble in running i’ll oppose him. A horse from my notebook who ran well recently is Kakatosi. He got a very slow start over 6f here earlier this month and was given far too much to do but when he got going in the straight he finished very strongly and was catching the leading bunch with every stride. He was only beaten about 2L in the end and upped to 7f again tomorrow he is certainly of interest. 4 of his 5 career wins have come over 7f including a 1/1 record over this C&D, he looks on a handy mark too, 12lb below his highest winning mark and 2lb below recent placed runs. Shane Kelly rides and he has a cracking record for this yard and i’d be surprised if this one doesn’t go well.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Some interesting handicaps to get stuck into at Lingfield tomorrow… 1.30 - Lingfield - Leitrim Pass 1pt @ 10/3 Bet365 I’ve followed Aqua Ardens for ages now and he shaped as if he’s not far from winning last time out but he finds too much traffic in running for my liking and that is never good at Lingfield. I’m going to side with Leitrim Pass, who has been very expensive to follow but could be worth sticking with. The 3yo is relatively unexposed and shaped on numerous occasions earlier in the year as if he had a handicap in him off this kind of mark. He won a mile maiden at Musselburgh on his 2nd starts before making the frame 3 times, the first over 7f at Kempton, the 2nd over 1m at Doncaster where he was a close 2nd off this mark and the 3rd where he was again 2nd over 10f off a mark of 76. He shaped as if something was wrong on his final start of the season and he has had a decent break since then so hopefully he will be okay now. He returns to polytrack over 1m which should suit him on the basis of his form. His handicap mark must be lenient in my opinion, he was only beaten 1/4L by a progressive Roger Varian runner off this mark and has gone off a short price in all handicap starts. He ran well enough on his first start this season to suggest the lack of of recent run won’t be in a problem and he could well have improved over that time. Gets into a slightly lower class race than he has been contesting and looks a worthy favourite to me. 2.30 - Lingfield - Kakatosi 1pt @ 6/1 William Hill I would be surprised if Nassau Storm isn’t a well backed favourite for this, when it all comes together he will win a race off this mark but while he is a short price and keeps finding trouble in running i’ll oppose him. A horse from my notebook who ran well recently is Kakatosi. He got a very slow start over 6f here earlier this month and was given far too much to do but when he got going in the straight he finished very strongly and was catching the leading bunch with every stride. He was only beaten about 2L in the end and upped to 7f again tomorrow he is certainly of interest. 4 of his 5 career wins have come over 7f including a 1/1 record over this C&D, he looks on a handy mark too, 12lb below his highest winning mark and 2lb below recent placed runs. Shane Kelly rides and he has a cracking record for this yard and i’d be surprised if this one doesn’t go well.

More frustration today i'm afraid. Leitrim Pass was well backed, went off 2/1 and ran no race whatsoever. Atleast Aqua Ardens didn't win to compound the misery! Kakatosi was easy to back before the off, wide draw certainly didn't help but he ran his race, beaten a neck in a tight finish :wall would have returned 7/1 aswell which would have been nice. Back to square one with regards to profit unfortunately, keep getting the wrong side of tight finishes (10/1, 14/1 and 7/1 shots all going down by a neck or less in the last week or so) Anyway, hopefully 2014 will hold abit better fortune for me. Hope everyone has a great evening tonight! i'll certainly be drowning my sorrows :lol Not sure whether tomorrow bets will be done tonight or in the morning..... Staked: 26pts Returned: 26.58pts P/L: +0.58pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Managed time to do the write ups! 2.15 - Catterick - Kodicil 1pt @ 10/1 Betfred This one went into my notebook last time out. He wasn’t really an eye-catcher, more of a runner who’d be interesting down in trip. He had a moderate level of ability in staying handicaps on the flat and i didn’t think he ran badly on either of his starts in novice hurdles. He made his handicap debut last time out and to be honest i didn’t think he looked that badly treated, he pulled 20L clear with a 120 rated rival in his 2nd start over hurdles so running off a mark of 111 i certainly thought he had a chance. As it turned out he ran quite freely in testing ground and didn’t give himself much chance of getting home in the extended 3m race. He’s instantly dropped back to 19f for tomorrows race which is obviously a positive. He’s been kept on the same mark by the handicapper which is a shame, i was hoping he’d be dropped a lb or 2 but he’s unexposed in this sphere and open to plenty of improvement. He acted on soft ground on the flat so i’d expect him to cope with the testing conditions and put in a good run. He has a good jockey abroad in Dougie Costello and 10/1 doesn’t look a bad price to me. 12.15 - Southwell - Short Shrift 1pt @ 9/2 Bet365 The observant of you will notice i backed this one a couple of weeks ago in this thread, heres my write up:

My other selection comes from the Richard Fahey yard and i feel he's interesting returned to a handicap. He showed plenty of promise on his first start for the yard over this C&D in a maiden last month. He and 2 others pulled clear, and the form of that race looks solid enough, with the winner since placed off 73, and the 2nd placed horse winning well off a mark of 65. He goes back into the handicap off a mark of 62 and considering he's still open to improvement (only had 5 career starts) i feel he should run well. I think the fact he's been picked up by the Richard Fahey yard also suggest theres a race or 2 in him. Again this doesn't look a strong class 6 event which shouldn't take much winning.

He was fairly well beat that day and if this was at Lingfield or Wolverhampton i'd have probably swerved him but the fact that he is stepping up in trip even further tomorrow and he is by one of the best sires for producing Southwell winners he could just be worth chancing. The offspring of Nayef have an strike rate of 11.2% on the AW, however that figure increases to 30.8% when you just look at Southwell alone (from 39 runs so the sample size isn't that small either!) He's been dropped another 1lb by the handicapper, Richard Fahey has found him a winnable 5 runner handicap and if he takes to the surface and also improves for the step up in trip i can see him going very well. It is worth noting there is another offspring of Nayef having her first try on fibresand in this race, and Mark Johnson has a fibresand debutant in a low grade handicap from a good fibresand sire which is always worth being weary of, so there could be some potential dangers but i'll give Short Shrift another chance.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Managed time to do the write ups! 2.15 - Catterick - Kodicil 1pt @ 10/1 Betfred This one went into my notebook last time out. He wasn’t really an eye-catcher, more of a runner who’d be interesting down in trip. He had a moderate level of ability in staying handicaps on the flat and i didn’t think he ran badly on either of his starts in novice hurdles. He made his handicap debut last time out and to be honest i didn’t think he looked that badly treated, he pulled 20L clear with a 120 rated rival in his 2nd start over hurdles so running off a mark of 111 i certainly thought he had a chance. As it turned out he ran quite freely in testing ground and didn’t give himself much chance of getting home in the extended 3m race. He’s instantly dropped back to 19f for tomorrows race which is obviously a positive. He’s been kept on the same mark by the handicapper which is a shame, i was hoping he’d be dropped a lb or 2 but he’s unexposed in this sphere and open to plenty of improvement. He acted on soft ground on the flat so i’d expect him to cope with the testing conditions and put in a good run. He has a good jockey abroad in Dougie Costello and 10/1 doesn’t look a bad price to me. 12.15 - Southwell - Short Shrift 1pt @ 9/2 Bet365 The observant of you will notice i backed this one a couple of weeks ago in this thread, heres my write up: He was fairly well beat that day and if this was at Lingfield or Wolverhampton i'd have probably swerved him but the fact that he is stepping up in trip even further tomorrow and he is by one of the best sires for producing Southwell winners he could just be worth chancing. The offspring of Nayef have an strike rate of 11.2% on the AW, however that figure increases to 30.8% when you just look at Southwell alone (from 39 runs so the sample size isn't that small either!) He's been dropped another 1lb by the handicapper, Richard Fahey has found him a winnable 5 runner handicap and if he takes to the surface and also improves for the step up in trip i can see him going very well. It is worth noting there is another offspring of Nayef having her first try on fibresand in this race, and Mark Johnson has a fibresand debutant in a low grade handicap from a good fibresand sire which is always worth being weary of, so there could be some potential dangers but i'll give Short Shrift another chance.

We finally have another winner :) Short Shrift wins with quite a lot in hand at Southwell with my first bet of the year. He clearly took to the fibresand exceptionally well and the step up in trip also benefitted him. He'll probably be a short price next time out but he'll definitely be worth a look if returning to Southwell. Kodicil couldn't quite keep up the 100% record this year :lol Not really sure what to make of his run, he looked abit outpaced quite a way from home but kept on to make abit of headway and take 4th. Ultimately he was well beaten, but i will keep an eye out for him especially as the ground was so testing today, there weren't many horses that would have relished it so its worth seeing him on better ground again. He'll be given a little respite from the handicapper for that effort too. I did have a couple of horses which took my eye today which i will also share: The first is Runswick Royal who ran in the 2.10 at Musselburgh, he's a horse i've followed since his 2nd to L'Unique at Aintree and he probably suffered because of that run from a handicapping perspective. He started the season off a mark of 145 and ran okay on seasonal re-appearance but its been clear to see in his couple of runs since he's too high in the weights. He dropped down to 140 for todays run and had a decent 7lb claimer aboard, he did look beat along way from home (traded at 1000 on betfair) but stayed on well in the testing ground down the straight and actually looked like going close between 2 out and the last. He ended up a 7L 4th but it was a good effort to come from that far back in the conditions in a very competitive race. Its also worth noting there was a lot of money for him today, it did cross my mind to back him last night when he was available at around 25/1 and he went off at 17/2. One to watch out for if his mark drops slightly further in a 2m handicap on soft ground i feel. The 2nd is Kumbeshwar (2.30 Cheltenham) he's another horse who has struggled from lofty handicap marks in recent times but i though he ran a gutsy race today, especially given the problems that Alan King is having at the moment. He had to shoulder 11-10, giving weight away to some improving horses in the likes Double Ross and Cedre Bleu but he was right up with the pace throughout over a trip which he had to prove his stamina. He was off the bridle and ridden along quite a way from home but found a lot from Wayne Hutchinson's urgings. He never really threatened the front 2 in the late stages but was a respectable 3rd. The reason i think he's worth keeping an eye on is with the Cheltenham festival in mind. If he could find some more respite from the handicapper before March i think he could go well in one of the handicap chase's. He's ran in the Grand Annual the past 2 years (3rd off 144 in 2012) but now he's proved his stamina at 2m 5f that might give him more options. He clearly goes well at the course and is pretty ground versatile.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Staked: 28pts Returned: 32.08pts P/L: +4.08pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread First selection for tomorrow: 2.00 - Southwell - Tellovoi 1pt @ 13/2 Paddypower Tellovoi never looked like winning over C&D last time but when he was up against the likes of the best fibresand performers around you can forgive him for coming home a 6L 5th. The lightly raced 6 year old only managed to score once this summer but it did come off a 2lb higher mark than he runs off tomorrow. His last run was his fibresand debut and he shaped as well as could be expected. He was no match for the front pair Dubai Hills and Frontier Fighter but came home alongside Galician and Iptisam who have both franked the form. His last 3 runs have been in class 2 level but he drops to a class 4 handicap tomorrow and is dropped 2lbs for his last run. Adam Kirby takes over from a 3lb claimer which is very positive and he wears the visor which was present for his latest win. Down in grade and with the top AW jockey booked, 13/2 doesn’t look a bad price to me.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 4.50 - Wolverhampton - Huzzah 1pt @ 13/2 BetVictor I thought Huzzah ran a good enough race on his 1st start for Mick Appleby and has shown he still holds some of his old ability. He was rated 99 in his pomp and now he finds himself on a basement mark of 45. He wasn’t supported in the market on his first start for the yard and Luke Morris chose to hold him up in rear, he travelled well enough and made some headway down the straight without ever threatening the easy winner Ellaal. He races tomorrow over the same C&D and i think he’ll go close, he’s been dropped 1lb and promising young apprentice Ali Rawlinson also takes off 7lbs. He’s already been used to good effect by this stable with 3 wins from 7 rides. Mick Appleby is a shrewd trainer and he must believe Huzzah still has a race or 2 in him at this grade, his mark can’t drop any lower and as i’ve mentioned he has a good 7lb claimer aboard so tomorrow could be his day.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

First selection for tomorrow: 2.00 - Southwell - Tellovoi 1pt @ 13/2 Paddypower Tellovoi never looked like winning over C&D last time but when he was up against the likes of the best fibresand performers around you can forgive him for coming home a 6L 5th. The lightly raced 6 year old only managed to score once this summer but it did come off a 2lb higher mark than he runs off tomorrow. His last run was his fibresand debut and he shaped as well as could be expected. He was no match for the front pair Dubai Hills and Frontier Fighter but came home alongside Galician and Iptisam who have both franked the form. His last 3 runs have been in class 2 level but he drops to a class 4 handicap tomorrow and is dropped 2lbs for his last run. Adam Kirby takes over from a 3lb claimer which is very positive and he wears the visor which was present for his latest win. Down in grade and with the top AW jockey booked, 13/2 doesn’t look a bad price to me.

4.50 - Wolverhampton - Huzzah 1pt @ 13/2 BetVictor I thought Huzzah ran a good enough race on his 1st start for Mick Appleby and has shown he still holds some of his old ability. He was rated 99 in his pomp and now he finds himself on a basement mark of 45. He wasn’t supported in the market on his first start for the yard and Luke Morris chose to hold him up in rear, he travelled well enough and made some headway down the straight without ever threatening the easy winner Ellaal. He races tomorrow over the same C&D and i think he’ll go close, he’s been dropped 1lb and promising young apprentice Ali Rawlinson also takes off 7lbs. He’s already been used to good effect by this stable with 3 wins from 7 rides. Mick Appleby is a shrewd trainer and he must believe Huzzah still has a race or 2 in him at this grade, his mark can’t drop any lower and as i’ve mentioned he has a good 7lb claimer aboard so tomorrow could be his day.

Well, i didn't quite imagine Tellovoi would come in for that much money, but the SP of 13/8 he won at made my bet last night look pretty good value :cheers Huzzah was also well backed, wide draw certainly didn't help though. He was in rear and wide throughout, Ali Rawlinson gave him a patient ride but he was just left with too much to do. He'll pick up a race like this at some point i would imagine but not sure i'll rush to back him. Anyway the winner boosted the profit total and paid for my day out at Huntingdon today :) back with some selections for tomorrow in a while... Staked: 30pts Returned: 39.58pts P/L: +9.58pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread First selection for tomorrow, may have another: 5.30 - Wolverhampton - Star Links 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I'm looking through this field and am very surprised this is the outsider of the bunch. This isn't the greatest race for this grade, and most of these either fall into the category of out of form, or badly handicapped. Star Links however is a horse in reasonable form, he scored by 6L on his penultimate start here at Wolverhampton over the extended mile. He was raised 7lb for that effort but ran well enough nto finishing 5th in a very competitive handicap and he would have finished a couple of lengths closer to the leaders had he not been hampered 2f out. The form of that race has worked out well enough with the 2 horses in front of him placed in Class 2 handicap next time out. He gets another go off a mark of 84 and although that is well above his highest winning mark i don't think the winner of this will need to be too well handicapped. My only slight concern would be the trip, he's 1-19 over 7f but he loves Wolverhampton (6-13 here) and he should least give a good account for himself here. At 8/1 he looks reasonable value too.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 6.30 - Wolverhampton - Stamp Duty 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 I was going to leave my above selection as my only bet on a rubbish days racing but after watching Stamp Duty's run last time out i can't help but back him. He'd shown absolutely nothing on his first 2 starts back from a break recently but despite going off at 33/1 he looked like he could have gone reasonably close having not met trouble in running lto. If you have a minute go back and watch this race as he was drawn wide, travelled well, but he was stuck behind a large wall of horses and was denied a run on numerous occasions, when the gap did appear he finished with plenty of running and was beaten around 4L. He races tomorrow over the same C&D this class 7 event looks weaker than his last class 6 race and he races off a 1lb lower mark. Stevie Donohoe booked for the ride and it wouldn't surprise me if this one went off a fair bit shorter. He's no certainty to back that last effort up but if he does he'll go very close in this grade.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Going to get in there early with a bet for tomorrow. 2.35 - Lingfield - Kiama Bay 1pt @ 18/1 Coral I think Kiama Bay is being slightly overlooked here in this competitive race. He has a very good record over tomorrows distance of 12f (4-14), he's proven on the polytrack (in the frame in his past 4 starts on the surface) and he's in good form. I think his run behind Litigent last time out reads quite well. He had to make the running over a trip which probably stretches his stamina, and he wasn't disgraced being betean 3L by the well handicapped rival. He twice scored over this distance in August, and subsequently finished 3rd off a mark of 89 beating the favourite for tomorrows race on worse terms than he faces him tomorrow. He then struggled for a few runs off marks in the low 90's but now back down to a mark of 87 i can see him being competitive. I'm not sure who's riding him now Martin Dwyer is out injured but he has a nice low draw which hopefully means he won't find much trouble, he gets into this race off a nice low weight of 8st1lb and if he benefits from the step back to his favoured trip, i can see him going well. I was very tempted to back Uramazin as he also looks decent value at 12/1 but he is drawn in stall 14 and winning a competitive race like this off a mark of 99 is never easy.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

First selection for tomorrow, may have another: 5.30 - Wolverhampton - Star Links 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I'm looking through this field and am very surprised this is the outsider of the bunch. This isn't the greatest race for this grade, and most of these either fall into the category of out of form, or badly handicapped. Star Links however is a horse in reasonable form, he scored by 6L on his penultimate start here at Wolverhampton over the extended mile. He was raised 7lb for that effort but ran well enough nto finishing 5th in a very competitive handicap and he would have finished a couple of lengths closer to the leaders had he not been hampered 2f out. The form of that race has worked out well enough with the 2 horses in front of him placed in Class 2 handicap next time out. He gets another go off a mark of 84 and although that is well above his highest winning mark i don't think the winner of this will need to be too well handicapped. My only slight concern would be the trip, he's 1-19 over 7f but he loves Wolverhampton (6-13 here) and he should least give a good account for himself here. At 8/1 he looks reasonable value too.

6.30 - Wolverhampton - Stamp Duty 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 I was going to leave my above selection as my only bet on a rubbish days racing but after watching Stamp Duty's run last time out i can't help but back him. He'd shown absolutely nothing on his first 2 starts back from a break recently but despite going off at 33/1 he looked like he could have gone reasonably close having not met trouble in running lto. If you have a minute go back and watch this race as he was drawn wide, travelled well, but he was stuck behind a large wall of horses and was denied a run on numerous occasions, when the gap did appear he finished with plenty of running and was beaten around 4L. He races tomorrow over the same C&D this class 7 event looks weaker than his last class 6 race and he races off a 1lb lower mark. Stevie Donohoe booked for the ride and it wouldn't surprise me if this one went off a fair bit shorter. He's no certainty to back that last effort up but if he does he'll go very close in this grade.

Star Links was withdrawn so stake returned - If anyone knows why please let me know? couldn't see anything on the BHA non runners page or twitter.... Stamp Duty was crap, basically last. Serves me right for betting in a class 7 race to be honest, going to avoid them now unless theres a ridiculous price on a runner or i'm extremely confident. I'll hopefully learn from that mistake... One bet for tomorrow already posted, not sure if i'll have another, haven't looked through any of the national hunt stuff as it might be off!

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread No more bets for tomorrow, i was tempted by Spellmaker in the 2.00 at Lingfield and also reckon Elusivity could outrun big odds in the class 2 sprint at 3.10 but i'll watch his first run for a new yard. Staked: 31pts Returned: 39.58pts P/L: +8.58pts

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Star Links was withdrawn so stake returned - If anyone knows why please let me know? couldn't see anything on the BHA non runners page or twitter.... Stamp Duty was crap, basically last. Serves me right for betting in a class 7 race to be honest, going to avoid them now unless theres a ridiculous price on a runner or i'm extremely confident. I'll hopefully learn from that mistake... One bet for tomorrow already posted, not sure if i'll have another, haven't looked through any of the national hunt stuff as it might be off!

I feel the same way! C6 races are bad enough for the most part but C7 is desperate!

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Been at work all day so haven't managed to watch todays selection but i'm informed he was well beat :\ Staked: 32pts Returned: 39.58pts P/L: +7.58pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 12.40 - Lingfield - Imjin River 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 Just did a bloody great write up for this and accidentally deleted it :wall so apologies if it isn't as in depth as usual. I thought Imjin River should go close if backing up Tuesdays effort at Lingfield. He was only beaten a length or so there and was running on strongly from the back of the field. He was effectively running off an 8lb higher mark of 54 because of his jockey being overweight and him being out of the handicap so off a mark of 46 i think he could do some damage. He clearly acts on the surface with a record of 1-3-2 from his 3 runs here. The win came off a 19lb higher mark and the most recent 2nd came this year over C&D off a 9lb higher mark. He's clearly not very consistent having only won twice from 42 career runs but off a basement mark he must have a race in him. He has a decent young jockey booked in Louis Steward, he knows the horse having ridden him a few times and he had a 17% strike rate on the AW in 2013. I backed this one myself on the exchanges at 8/1 already, but i'll take the bookies price in the thread for consistency, i still don't think 6/1 is a bad price though.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 1.10 - Southwell - Grace Hull 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I'm going to give Grace Hull another chance after she disappointed me slightly last time out. I backed her last time out expecting the step up to 7f to do the trick but she didn't see her race out that well and shaped like a non stayer over that trip. Tomorrow she returns to the fibresand over 6f and she'll hopefully show an improved performance because of that. In her 2 previous runs she'd finished a neck 2nd at Wolverhampton and wasn't beaten far over tomorrows C&D despite having to travel wide and come from a fair way back. She still looks on a fair mark of 57, 1lb higher than when 2nd her on her penultimate start. She has Billy Cray aboard claiming 3lb and he has twice been placed when riding her. ATR draw check also suggest she could be well drawn with high numbers beneficial over this distance at the course, particularly recently. It does look a competitive race for the grade, and theres plenty of C&D form on offer but at the prices i'll stick wit Grace Hull.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

12.40 - Lingfield - Imjin River 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 Just did a bloody great write up for this and accidentally deleted it :wall so apologies if it isn't as in depth as usual. I thought Imjin River should go close if backing up Tuesdays effort at Lingfield. He was only beaten a length or so there and was running on strongly from the back of the field. He was effectively running off an 8lb higher mark of 54 because of his jockey being overweight and him being out of the handicap so off a mark of 46 i think he could do some damage. He clearly acts on the surface with a record of 1-3-2 from his 3 runs here. The win came off a 19lb higher mark and the most recent 2nd came this year over C&D off a 9lb higher mark. He's clearly not very consistent having only won twice from 42 career runs but off a basement mark he must have a race in him. He has a decent young jockey booked in Louis Steward, he knows the horse having ridden him a few times and he had a 17% strike rate on the AW in 2013. I backed this one myself on the exchanges at 8/1 already, but i'll take the bookies price in the thread for consistency, i still don't think 6/1 is a bad price though.

1.10 - Southwell - Grace Hull 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I'm going to give Grace Hull another chance after she disappointed me slightly last time out. I backed her last time out expecting the step up to 7f to do the trick but she didn't see her race out that well and shaped like a non stayer over that trip. Tomorrow she returns to the fibresand over 6f and she'll hopefully show an improved performance because of that. In her 2 previous runs she'd finished a neck 2nd at Wolverhampton and wasn't beaten far over tomorrows C&D despite having to travel wide and come from a fair way back. She still looks on a fair mark of 57, 1lb higher than when 2nd her on her penultimate start. She has Billy Cray aboard claiming 3lb and he has twice been placed when riding her. ATR draw check also suggest she could be well drawn with high numbers beneficial over this distance at the course, particularly recently. It does look a competitive race for the grade, and theres plenty of C&D form on offer but at the prices i'll stick wit Grace Hull.

Well thats todays runners done and dusted already. Imjin River wins abit of a farcical race. They didn't use the stalls and lucky Louis Steward got him off to a flyer but there were plenty that were less fortunate. 6/1 proved a good price and i wish i'd have made it a 2pt bet as i was fairly confident. Grace Hull was agonisingly close to making it a double. She was 2nd not beaten far and there was a long period down the straight where i thought she'd out battle Prince Of Passion. Starting to find a few winners now, which has lifted the thread into a healthy profit :cheers Back with tomorrows bets later... Staked: 34pts Returned: 46.58pts P/L: +12.58pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 4.10 - Wolverhmpton - Dodina 1pt @ 9/2 Coral The smooth travelling Dodina should go close stepping back to 6f tomorrow. The 4yo filly was backed as if she was expected to run very well on her first start for Brian Ellison but after looking the most likely winner turning for home over the 7f at Wolverhampton (traded at evens in running), she found nothing in the straight and finished a well beaten 7th. She drops back to 6f tomorrow and her only career win came over that distance so i feel this is a positive. From a handicapping perspective i feel she could well be on a lenient mark, she went off 11/10 on her handicap debut back in August off a 1lb higher mark and finished a neck 2nd. She’s been dropped 1lb for her latest run and i’d be surprised if Brian Ellison didn’t find a race for her off this kind of mark.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

4.10 - Wolverhmpton - Dodina 1pt @ 9/2 Coral The smooth travelling Dodina should go close stepping back to 6f tomorrow. The 4yo filly was backed as if she was expected to run very well on her first start for Brian Ellison but after looking the most likely winner turning for home over the 7f at Wolverhampton (traded at evens in running), she found nothing in the straight and finished a well beaten 7th. She drops back to 6f tomorrow and her only career win came over that distance so i feel this is a positive. From a handicapping perspective i feel she could well be on a lenient mark, she went off 11/10 on her handicap debut back in August off a 1lb higher mark and finished a neck 2nd. She’s been dropped 1lb for her latest run and i’d be surprised if Brian Ellison didn’t find a race for her off this kind of mark.

Went off 2/1 and disappointed, probably beaten about 1L back in 3rd :\ Staked: 35pts Returned: 46.58pts P/L: +11.58pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 1.00 - Southwell - Cape Safari 1pt @ 13/2 BetVictor I feel there are potentially a couple of interesting runners is this race, but none more so than Cape Safari. On the best of her form she is absolutely thrown in. The 5 year old mare has a great fibresand record with 3 wins, from 4 runs, and even the defeat was a 2nd in a maiden where she beat the rest of the field by 11 lengths. Her last run here saw her win a class 4 handicap off a mark of 75 comfortably, so running tomorrow off a mark of 60 there is no reason why she can’t win this. Tim Vaughan has a 5lb claimer booked who has ridden this horse before, i don’t know much about Harry Poulton but he did have a 17% strike rate last year and has won on his only ride since Christmas. She hasn’t ran over 2m before but she’s won at this course over 14f and Tim Vaughan bought her with the view to going hurdling so i’d hope she’d stay the trip. Cheekpieces have been put back on her and they have been present for all her 4 career wins so i’d also take that as a positive. There is obviously a question mark over what ability she retains, she’s not been seen for a year and she wasn’t in great form then. But i feel she’s worth a small interest at the prices, i must admit i was hoping for better odds but it probably reflects just how well handicapped she could be.