Lodge's Thread

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Going to have another little speculative bet: 1.30 - Southwell - Doctor Hilary 1pt @ 20.00 Betfair The 2 horses that i initially liked in this contest have both been found in the market already so i’m going to back the veteran Doctor Hilary. The 12yo has ran well on all 3 starts at Southwell, showing enough to suggest he might have one more win left in him. He ran a shocker last time out at Kempton but the return to Southwell will hopefully bring about a change of fortunes. The time before he was a staying on 4th over C&D, not many horses in this grade have the turn of foot to come from a long way back on this surface and Doctor Hilary fell into that category, he simply had too much to do. Infact that has been the case on all 3 of his runs here, he’s been doing his best work late on, having had to travel wide in rear. He’s drawn in stall 3 tomorrow which i’m hoping means he can get a nice position on the inside and not be caught too far back, his last 3 wins in this country have all come when he’s been ridden prominently so i’m hoping Robert Havlin will ride him handy and at least give him a chance. He’s finally dropped back down to a basement mark, which gives him a big chance on some of his summer form in a weak race like this.

3.05 - Southwell - Naabegha 1pt @ 14/1 Boylesports, BetVictor Frontier Fighter has an extremely good record round here and will undoubtedly go close, however he needs a career best to take this and i’m not usually one for backing at short odds. Naabegha is far from a confident selection opposing him but i get the feeling he’ll pick up a race soon enough. He’s far from straightforward and often spoils his chances by pulling hard but he’s starting to look feasibly handicapped. He didn’t win in handicap company last year but was placed on numerous occasions off higher marks. He’s been running in some decent races of late, and pulled hard last time in a race that was run quite slowly in the early stages, that put paid to his chances really. If he does manage to settle tomorrow i expect him to go close though, I personally think 7f is his best distance and i find it interesting that headgear has been left off for the first time since his win 3 starts ago. He beat Apostle off level weights in December over this distance. Today he meets that rival on 5lb better terms so the fact he’s a much bigger price than that rival is abit of an insult. He only finished 2L behind Frontier Fighter last time out too and has a slight swing in the weights so theres no reason why he shouldn’t get close to that rival. The one big question mark is whether he will take to the surface, i can honestly say i have no idea. It is obviously worth noting his trainers good record at this course though. Tom Queally rides, he had a big price winner for this yard yesterday and is 3 from 8 for Alan McCabe this year, i imagine he chose Naabegha over Bedloe’s Island who is ridden by Ben Curtis, so that could also be a pointer at his chances.

Well, i thought Doctor Hilary was going to get the day off to a cracking start there. Finishing 2nd @ at BSP of 38 and trading at 2.22 in running, I wish i'd have backed him for the place now (13.82!). Bit annoying that Art Dzeko won, he was the runner i was intending to back but couldn't get on a the sort of price i'd have wanted. Naabegha was a dissapointment, not sure the fibresand was for him. He'll probably be of interest back on the polytrack at some point. Onto tomorrow, got a couple of interest.... Staked: 100pts Returned: 183.82ts P/L: +83.82pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 4.15 - Lingfield - Aldeburgh 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 On the face of Aldeburgh’s 8 runs so far he probably doesn’t look the most obvious selection in this. He’s run in races ranging from bumpers, to hurdles and then to flat maidens over the course of the past year. I don’t think his maiden form is too bad though and should at least give him a chance off his opening mark of 65. All his 3 maidens have been at this course over 7/8f, in the first he was a staying on 4th, behind Lady Cecil’s Grasped, who looks like a very good prospect and also Secular Society who bolted up on handicap debut off 75. He was then 6th in a better maiden, the front 3 in that race all look useful, including Secular Society again and also Big Baz who bolted up off 80 nto. And finally last time he was again 4th but only beaten 2L, the 2nd and 3rd in that race have franked the form pulling clear in a reasonable maiden. As i’ve mentioned he’s been allotted a mark of 65, so the fact that he’s been getting within a few lengths of 80+ rated runners should give him a chance. He steps up to 10f tomorrow, its hard to say whether that will prove to be the distance for him but the fact he’s ran in NH races suggests he should some stamina. George Baker rides, he’s had 23 winners and 24 places from 91 rides so far this year (25.57% strike rate) so to say he is riding well is an understatement. He’s obviously open to some improvement too, and is interestingly a brother to Main Aim who was very useful. At 8/1 he looks worth chancing to me.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 6.15 - Kempton - Sandfrankskipsgo 2pts @ 5/1 William Hill I’ve been waiting for Sandfrankskipsgo to drop to a tempting mark in class 5 company, and he does just that tomorrow. The 5yo has bags of pace and was an eye-catcher for me back in November when a very close 5th off a 4lb higher mark. He certainly didn’t have things go his way that day (poor start and forced to race wide) but he finished well and looked the sort to get back on the scoreboard soon enough. He’s had 2 runs since, both were poor, the first can be excused as it was over 6f and last time he was never put in the race by Shane Kelly. Held up in rear he was probably 12L back on the home turn and ended up beaten by about 5L. I have a feeling tomorrow could be slightly different though, he’s been used to competing in better races class 2-4 and he drops to a class 5 for the first time in 18months, in my opinion he could just outclass this lot having twice won off higher marks, in better company last year. George Baker rides, he has had 10 winners from 21 rides at Kempton in 2014 which is also another big positive. Peter Crate won this race last year with Picansort and i’m hoping it will be Sandfrankskipsgo this year. On a side note, Top Cop who i backed on Saturday runs in this, he was disappointing but could be interesting dropping back to 5f. The same applies to him regarding dropping grade really and i expect him to win soon enough but i just prefer Sandfrankskipsgo.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread One final selection: 7.15 - Kempton - Toga Tiger 1pt @ 12/1 Paddypower Both my bets for tomorrow have already been well backed and the value has disappeared. I'm going to take a chance on Toga Tiger too, who thrived on this surface in 2013. He managed to notch up a hat-trick at this time last year including a win over C&D, taking him from a mark of 70 up into the 80's. He finds himself off a mark of 78 tomorrow, which is still 4lb higher than his last winning mark but he was placed off higher marks last summer. He has a good record at Kempton having won 2 of his 4 races here, so the return to this course could be seen as a positive. His recent re-appearance run can be excused. He was extremely slowly away and was never going to make an impact from that far back, he'll be sharper for the run tomorrow and this is certainly a weaker race in my opinion. The form of his recent run looks very good, the 2 horses just ahead of him have both won since (Bowstar who re-opposes and The Great Gabrial) I think he's been overlooked in this market, he actually beat the favourite Brocklebank by 5L in the summer on turf, and he now meets that rival on 7lb better terms, he also beat Light From Mars on his winning spree last winter. There looks to be plenty of pace in this race, i reckon that could suit him providing Robert Winston doesn't leave him too much to do, he should come with strong late run.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread I can't believe how short those 3 selections are now! Ridiculous prices...

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread First selection for tomorrow: 6.40 - Kempton - Bloodsweatandtears 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 Bloodsweatandtears is probably overpriced based on his runs this winter. He was actually first past the post back in November off this mark but was eventually demoted. His 3 runs since have all been respectable, the first was over 10f where he probably didn't stay (hasn't won over further than 1m). The 2 since have been over the mile at Lingfield, both times he was slowly away from a wide draw and was held up in last coming into the home straight. He was left with far too much to do on both occasions and finished 4th and 8th respectively. All 3 of those runs came in better company than this and i think the drop back to a class 6 race will suit him to be honest. He has a nice low draw and providing he's not left with too much to do, i can see him going close. George Baker rides and he's operating at a 45% strike rate this year. Add to that his good record when riding for this yard. There was abit of money for this one last time and it wouldn't surprise me if he's well backed again.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

4.15 - Lingfield - Aldeburgh 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 On the face of Aldeburgh’s 8 runs so far he probably doesn’t look the most obvious selection in this. He’s run in races ranging from bumpers, to hurdles and then to flat maidens over the course of the past year. I don’t think his maiden form is too bad though and should at least give him a chance off his opening mark of 65. All his 3 maidens have been at this course over 7/8f, in the first he was a staying on 4th, behind Lady Cecil’s Grasped, who looks like a very good prospect and also Secular Society who bolted up on handicap debut off 75. He was then 6th in a better maiden, the front 3 in that race all look useful, including Secular Society again and also Big Baz who bolted up off 80 nto. And finally last time he was again 4th but only beaten 2L, the 2nd and 3rd in that race have franked the form pulling clear in a reasonable maiden. As i’ve mentioned he’s been allotted a mark of 65, so the fact that he’s been getting within a few lengths of 80+ rated runners should give him a chance. He steps up to 10f tomorrow, its hard to say whether that will prove to be the distance for him but the fact he’s ran in NH races suggests he should some stamina. George Baker rides, he’s had 23 winners and 24 places from 91 rides so far this year (25.57% strike rate) so to say he is riding well is an understatement. He’s obviously open to some improvement too, and is interestingly a brother to Main Aim who was very useful. At 8/1 he looks worth chancing to me.

6.15 - Kempton - Sandfrankskipsgo 2pts @ 5/1 William Hill I’ve been waiting for Sandfrankskipsgo to drop to a tempting mark in class 5 company, and he does just that tomorrow. The 5yo has bags of pace and was an eye-catcher for me back in November when a very close 5th off a 4lb higher mark. He certainly didn’t have things go his way that day (poor start and forced to race wide) but he finished well and looked the sort to get back on the scoreboard soon enough. He’s had 2 runs since, both were poor, the first can be excused as it was over 6f and last time he was never put in the race by Shane Kelly. Held up in rear he was probably 12L back on the home turn and ended up beaten by about 5L. I have a feeling tomorrow could be slightly different though, he’s been used to competing in better races class 2-4 and he drops to a class 5 for the first time in 18months, in my opinion he could just outclass this lot having twice won off higher marks, in better company last year. George Baker rides, he has had 10 winners from 21 rides at Kempton in 2014 which is also another big positive. Peter Crate won this race last year with Picansort and i’m hoping it will be Sandfrankskipsgo this year. On a side note, Top Cop who i backed on Saturday runs in this, he was disappointing but could be interesting dropping back to 5f. The same applies to him regarding dropping grade really and i expect him to win soon enough but i just prefer Sandfrankskipsgo.

One final selection: 7.15 - Kempton - Toga Tiger 1pt @ 12/1 Paddypower Both my bets for tomorrow have already been well backed and the value has disappeared. I'm going to take a chance on Toga Tiger too, who thrived on this surface in 2013. He managed to notch up a hat-trick at this time last year including a win over C&D, taking him from a mark of 70 up into the 80's. He finds himself off a mark of 78 tomorrow, which is still 4lb higher than his last winning mark but he was placed off higher marks last summer. He has a good record at Kempton having won 2 of his 4 races here, so the return to this course could be seen as a positive. His recent re-appearance run can be excused. He was extremely slowly away and was never going to make an impact from that far back, he'll be sharper for the run tomorrow and this is certainly a weaker race in my opinion. The form of his recent run looks very good, the 2 horses just ahead of him have both won since (Bowstar who re-opposes and The Great Gabrial) I think he's been overlooked in this market, he actually beat the favourite Brocklebank by 5L in the summer on turf, and he now meets that rival on 7lb better terms, he also beat Light From Mars on his winning spree last winter. There looks to be plenty of pace in this race, i reckon that could suit him providing Robert Winston doesn't leave him too much to do, he should come with strong late run.

Well, managed to find 1 winner today, although i still feel abit disappointed there weren't more. Aldeburgh was 2nd, he had no excuses, just found 1 too good. He'll be of interest next time out although he's likely to be a short price. Sandfrankskipsgo was backed off the board and won making a total mockery of the field. Returned 9/2 for me with a small rule 4, still much better than the BSP of 2.16 :eek Toga Tiger was also a massive market mover going off about 4/1. He was a staying on 3rd i believe, haven't managed to watch the race yet... I did see something from his trainer suggesting 1m might suit him better so that would make sense and maybe one to keep an eye on nto... Selection for tomorrow already up, will probably be the only one... Staked: 104pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +90.82pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread I have been meaning to flag up some eye-cathers in this thread abit more often and i have abit of time this evening so thought i'd put one up from this evening racing at Kempton. I thought that Invigilator shaped with promise despite going off at big odds in the final race tonight. He was held up in last place of the 12 runner field and was left with a lot to do in the straight. He ran on in fairly eye-catching fashion finishing a never nearer 6th. He shaped similarly on his penultimate start in a slightly better race and if his trainer can find him a weak enough class 6 contest over 6f i'd be very interested in him, even if he remains on a mark of 62. He was only 1lb above his last winning mark when running tonight and although his mark will probably remain unchanged for nto he shaped as if he's could win off this mark a few times this winter. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on him nto...

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Typical that Runswick Royal wins the day I don't back it!

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Selection for tomorrow, will take the price now as don't have much time to post this evening... 5.05 - Wolverhampton - Biscuiteer 1pt @ 15/2 Paddypower Biscuiteer should have a good chance dropping back to the minimum trip tomorrow. He was a reasonable 4th in a fair race for the grade at Kempton last time over 6f. The winner Alunina looks progressive and has won since as has Wiki Tiki who was a neck ahead last time, therefore re-opposes on worse terms tomorrow. He won a C&D maiden late last year on his only run at Wolverhampton. And the way he shaped last time suggests 5f could be the trip for him at the moment. He's been dropped 2lb for that last run and Luke Morris takes the ride which is a positive, he rides the odd winner for this yard. At the prices he looks value to overturn the form with Wiki Tiki to me, and I expect him to go well.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

First selection for tomorrow: 6.40 - Kempton - Bloodsweatandtears 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 Bloodsweatandtears is probably overpriced based on his runs this winter. He was actually first past the post back in November off this mark but was eventually demoted. His 3 runs since have all been respectable, the first was over 10f where he probably didn't stay (hasn't won over further than 1m). The 2 since have been over the mile at Lingfield, both times he was slowly away from a wide draw and was held up in last coming into the home straight. He was left with far too much to do on both occasions and finished 4th and 8th respectively. All 3 of those runs came in better company than this and i think the drop back to a class 6 race will suit him to be honest. He has a nice low draw and providing he's not left with too much to do, i can see him going close. George Baker rides and he's operating at a 45% strike rate this year. Add to that his good record when riding for this yard. There was abit of money for this one last time and it wouldn't surprise me if he's well backed again.

This one must have traded very low in running! 2nd going off at an SP off 4/1 :wall very frustrating.... Staked: 105pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +89.82pts One selection up already up for tomorrow, not sure they'll be any more

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Selection for tomorrow, will take the price now as don't have much time to post this evening... 5.05 - Wolverhampton - Biscuiteer 1pt @ 15/2 Paddypower Biscuiteer should have a good chance dropping back to the minimum trip tomorrow. He was a reasonable 4th in a fair race for the grade at Kempton last time over 6f. The winner Alunina looks progressive and has won since as has Wiki Tiki who was a neck ahead last time, therefore re-opposes on worse terms tomorrow. He won a C&D maiden late last year on his only run at Wolverhampton. And the way he shaped last time suggests 5f could be the trip for him at the moment. He's been dropped 2lb for that last run and Luke Morris takes the ride which is a positive, he rides the odd winner for this yard. At the prices he looks value to overturn the form with Wiki Tiki to me, and I expect him to go well.

Another placed horse :\ Biscuiteer was 3rd at an SP of 9/2. Haven't had much time to look over tomorrows cards yet, have had one bet though which will follow..... Staked: 106pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +88.82pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 4.30 - Lingfield - Swift Cedar 1pt @ 16/1 Bet365 I've backed High Time Too the last twice and he's disappointed me slightly, and while i think he's well handicapped he does have a few lengths to make up with the favourite from lto. Swift Cedar is my selection and he has less to find with the favourite on his last run. He won off a 5lb higher mark in the summer for his previous yard and wasn't discraced on his debut for his new yard last time. He's come down the handicap quite rapidly having been rated 10lb higher a couple of months ago. He was a relatively close 7th last time in a competitive over C&D behind Club House. He's been dropped 2lb since then and has blinkers applied for the first time tomorrow. He also has Luke Morris taking over from an apprentice which is certainly a positive in my opinion. He was beaten 2 1/2L by Club House last time but does atleast have a 6lb swing (without taking into account jockey claims). I personally think he's well handicapped and at 16/1 he looks good value too.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 2.15 - Lingfield - Music Man 1pt @ 17/2 BetVictor The form of Music Man's maiden win should entitle him to at least as good chance as the favourite in this race so at 17/2 he looks good value. He left his debut run well behind him last time when winning a Lingfield maiden over 10f in good style. He's been allotted an opening mark of 80, which considering his unexposed nature and the form of his maiden win looks very fair. He had a subsequent winner 3L behind who was 2nd off a mark of 76 today and a couple of other 70+ rated rival behind too. He steps up to 12f today which should suit him and in a field of mostly exposed handicappers i expect him to run well.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

2.15 - Lingfield - Music Man 1pt @ 17/2 BetVictor The form of Music Man's maiden win should entitle him to at least as good chance as the favourite in this race so at 17/2 he looks good value. He left his debut run well behind him last time when winning a Lingfield maiden over 10f in good style. He's been allotted an opening mark of 80, which considering his unexposed nature and the form of his maiden win looks very fair. He had a subsequent winner 3L behind who was 2nd off a mark of 76 today and a couple of other 70+ rated rival behind too. He steps up to 12f today which should suit him and in a field of mostly exposed handicappers i expect him to run well.

4.30 - Lingfield - Swift Cedar 1pt @ 16/1 Bet365 I've backed High Time Too the last twice and he's disappointed me slightly, and while i think he's well handicapped he does have a few lengths to make up with the favourite from lto. Swift Cedar is my selection and he has less to find with the favourite on his last run. He won off a 5lb higher mark in the summer for his previous yard and wasn't discraced on his debut for his new yard last time. He's come down the handicap quite rapidly having been rated 10lb higher a couple of months ago. He was a relatively close 7th last time in a competitive over C&D behind Club House. He's been dropped 2lb since then and has blinkers applied for the first time tomorrow. He also has Luke Morris taking over from an apprentice which is certainly a positive in my opinion. He was beaten 2 1/2L by Club House last time but does atleast have a 6lb swing (without taking into account jockey claims). I personally think he's well handicapped and at 16/1 he looks good value too.

Music Man was well backed and i thought he ran well enough despite not getting the cleverest of rides from Crowley. Definitely gone in my notebook for next time... Swift Cedar ran a blinder, going off half the price i backed him at last night and finishing 2nd :wall Need some of that luck i had last month back! 4 2nd's since Tuesday at odds of 20/1, 8/1, 12/1 and 16/1 Staked: 108pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +86.82pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3.55 - Market Rasen - Phare Isle 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365 This race is likely to cut up with 3 of the field running today but even so i've backed Phare Isle at the early prices. He was slightly unlucky last time out when unseating at the penultimate fence, the way he was travelling suggests to me he would certainly have gone very close. The time before i saw him at Towcester where he was a close 3rd in a better race which the form has quite well in. He steps back up to 3m which should prove no problem and he looks well handicapped having gone close off marks about 10lb higher less than a year ago. Usual 7lb claimer aboard an i fancy him to go well at a fair price.

[Aidymac]

Re: Lodge's Thread Stick with it mate, you are doing the right things and if you keep doing the right things you won't lose in the long run. :ok

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

3.55 - Market Rasen - Phare Isle 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365 This race is likely to cut up with 3 of the field running today but even so i've backed Phare Isle at the early prices. He was slightly unlucky last time out when unseating at the penultimate fence, the way he was travelling suggests to me he would certainly have gone very close. The time before i saw him at Towcester where he was a close 3rd in a better race which the form has quite well in. He steps back up to 3m which should prove no problem and he looks well handicapped having gone close off marks about 10lb higher less than a year ago. Usual 7lb claimer aboard an i fancy him to go well at a fair price.

Another bloody 2nd :lol Beaten only by the Jonjo O'Neill horse who looked miles ahead of his mark. Rule 4 of 35p meant it would have only paid about 9/2 anyway, went of 7/2... Atleast theres some proper AW action tomorrow! Staked: 109pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +85.82pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3.15 - Wolverhampton - Pertemps Networks 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 Not the best card at Wolverhampton tomorrow but i felt that Pertemps Networks shaped as if still holding plenty of ability last time out depite being a 10yo. The veteran returned to the polytrack over C&D a couple of weeks back after a spell over hurdles. He wasn’t fancied going off a 25/1 outsider in a reasonable class 4 race, but he certainly outran those odds finishing a 3L 6th. He was right up with the pace the whole way, travelling pretty well before being picked up by a few in behind down the straight. He wasn’t given a hard time when beaten and i don’t think it would be wrong to expect him to be a little sharper for his first run on the flat since August. The form of that race looks to be okay, the 2nd Sagesse ran well in a hot handicap yesterday. He’s been dropped 2lb for that run, meaning he now runs off 75 and is eligible for slightly easier class 5 races. He’s proved abit of polytrack specialist over the years having won over C&D 3 times in his career. Looking back over his career form its hard to make a massive case for him being well handicapped, with his highest winning rating 69. However I just felt he shaped as if he could go close in an easier race, which is what he runs in tomorrow. The time of the race he ran in last time was also quite abit quicker than the times that The Blue Dog and Doldrums posted when winning over C&D recently so that could also be a pointer that he has a decent chance and at much bigger odds he looks reasonable value. The other one i liked the look of in this was Reflect, he shaped well last time at Kempton and off a 2lb lower mark should also run well but he’s about half the price of my selection and i had them a fair bit closer in terms of price.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

3.15 - Wolverhampton - Pertemps Networks 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 Not the best card at Wolverhampton tomorrow but i felt that Pertemps Networks shaped as if still holding plenty of ability last time out depite being a 10yo. The veteran returned to the polytrack over C&D a couple of weeks back after a spell over hurdles. He wasn’t fancied going off a 25/1 outsider in a reasonable class 4 race, but he certainly outran those odds finishing a 3L 6th. He was right up with the pace the whole way, travelling pretty well before being picked up by a few in behind down the straight. He wasn’t given a hard time when beaten and i don’t think it would be wrong to expect him to be a little sharper for his first run on the flat since August. The form of that race looks to be okay, the 2nd Sagesse ran well in a hot handicap yesterday. He’s been dropped 2lb for that run, meaning he now runs off 75 and is eligible for slightly easier class 5 races. He’s proved abit of polytrack specialist over the years having won over C&D 3 times in his career. Looking back over his career form its hard to make a massive case for him being well handicapped, with his highest winning rating 69. However I just felt he shaped as if he could go close in an easier race, which is what he runs in tomorrow. The time of the race he ran in last time was also quite abit quicker than the times that The Blue Dog and Doldrums posted when winning over C&D recently so that could also be a pointer that he has a decent chance and at much bigger odds he looks reasonable value. The other one i liked the look of in this was Reflect, he shaped well last time at Kempton and off a 2lb lower mark should also run well but he’s about half the price of my selection and i had them a fair bit closer in terms of price.

Shocker :\ Least said the better. Tomorrows cards looks crap so not sure if they'll be a selection yet Staked: 110pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +84.82pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 2.15 - Wetherby - Tea Caddy 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365 Tomorrow really must be one of the worst days racing i've seen in ages. I have found a selection that i feel is overpriced though, Tea Caddy. She won what was effectively a 2 runner handicap on her penultimate start and although that doesn't really give much of an idea regarding whether her mark is lenient, she had run well the time before and also in Novice company last summer. She ran poorly last time, however she was reported to have flipped her palate and has subsequently had a wind operation and also has a tongue tie added. She had actually beaten the eventual winner of that race previously and he's gone on to come 2nd in a class 3 race off a much higher mark. One thing i think that will be in her favour tomorrow is the conditions, she handles testing ground and also stays further than 2m 6f which certainly isn't a bad thing. Gavin Sheehan takes a valuable 3lbs off and he rode a couple of winner for the yard last year. This does look a fairly trappy race and i quite like the look of Fair Bramble however he's half the price of Tea Caddy so i'll stick with Jamie Snowden's runner.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

2.15 - Wetherby - Tea Caddy 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365 Tomorrow really must be one of the worst days racing i've seen in ages. I have found a selection that i feel is overpriced though, Tea Caddy. She won what was effectively a 2 runner handicap on her penultimate start and although that doesn't really give much of an idea regarding whether her mark is lenient, she had run well the time before and also in Novice company last summer. She ran poorly last time, however she was reported to have flipped her palate and has subsequently had a wind operation and also has a tongue tie added. She had actually beaten the eventual winner of that race previously and he's gone on to come 2nd in a class 3 race off a much higher mark. One thing i think that will be in her favour tomorrow is the conditions, she handles testing ground and also stays further than 2m 6f which certainly isn't a bad thing. Gavin Sheehan takes a valuable 3lbs off and he rode a couple of winner for the yard last year. This does look a fairly trappy race and i quite like the look of Fair Bramble however he's half the price of Tea Caddy so i'll stick with Jamie Snowden's runner.

Another loser, What a bizarre race though?! The gambled on favourite falls early, my selection looked continually outpaced, as soon as he looks to be travelling okay he weakens out of it. Of the 3 that pull clear off the home turn, 1 falls and the other 2 come to basically a standstill after the last, nearly letting my selection and Fair Bramble to catch them, would have been extremely interesting had there been another 100 yards. Staked: 111pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +83.82pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread Again nothing of major interest tomorrow, i did back this one a few weeks ago though when he was a non runner and think he'll go well. 5.55 - Kempton - Triple Chocolate 1pt 12/1 Bet365 Triple Chocolate looks of interest upped in trip tomorrow, he's been entered a couple of times in recent weeks but has been pulled out for whatever reason. I had backed him on the first of this occasions and below is my write up. Much of the same applies apart from him being entered over 10f tomorrow. He has a good chance of staying imo, his sires offspring have a 15% strike rate over 10f on polytrack compared to a general 9/10% strike rate over all distances. Only negative for tomorrow is the draw however he'll most likely be held up anyway so it's not as much of an issue as if he needed a lead...

I’m quite keen on the unexposed Triple Chocolate tomorrow at Kempton. The 4yo has just had 2 starts, the first was a win at this course over 7f beating an odds-on Godolphin inmate and a couple of subsequent winners, and the 2nd was his handicap debut where he was a 4L 4th. He started slowly, and had to make up ground early, he travelled well enough on the outside but just didn’t quite have the turn of foot as the winner in the final furlong or so. He steps up to 8f tomorrow and i feel that may suit based on his last run. The form looks okay, the 2nd has been placed since and the 3rd horse has won and been placed since, and Triple Chocolate was a couple of lengths clear of the rest of the field. After just 2 careers starts he’s clearly open to more improvement than any of the others in this field. He proved last time on handicap debut that his mark isn’t overly harsh, and i feel the step up to 8f will most likely benefit him. He’s much better drawn than last time, and despite a fairly large field, theres a lot of out of form or badly handicapped sorts in this race.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Again nothing of major interest tomorrow, i did back this one a few weeks ago though when he was a non runner and think he'll go well. 5.55 - Kempton - Triple Chocolate 1pt 12/1 Bet365 Triple Chocolate looks of interest upped in trip tomorrow, he's been entered a couple of times in recent weeks but has been pulled out for whatever reason. I had backed him on the first of this occasions and below is my write up. Much of the same applies apart from him being entered over 10f tomorrow. He has a good chance of staying imo, his sires offspring have a 15% strike rate over 10f on polytrack compared to a general 9/10% strike rate over all distances. Only negative for tomorrow is the draw however he'll most likely be held up anyway so it's not as much of an issue as if he needed a lead...

More frustration, Triple Chocolate was well backed going off at 5/1 but the fact that he was forced to travel 3 wide for the entire race probably meant he didn't see the trip out quite as well as i'd hoped. Staked: 112pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +82.82pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 7.30 - Wolverhampton - Silverware 1pt @ 6/1 Paddypower Sorry in advance for the short write up on this one... I think a repeat of Silverware's last run would win this contest. He got within a neck of the C&D specialist Star Links lto who has since gone on to run well twice including winning a class 2 handicap. The 2 horses in behind him have also boosted the form (Stasio was 2nd nto and Dixie's Dream won well). He's abit of a C&D specialist himself, with his record over the extended mile here 2-1-2-1-3-2. He was put up 1lb for that latest place effort but down in grade and against a field he could just dominate against from the front i see no reason why he won't go very close.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread 8.30 - Wolverhampton - Fleetwoodsands 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I think this race lacks any depth at-all and if Fleetwoodsands manages to settle abit better than he has since coming back from a long break he may take a lot of beating. The 4 time C&D winner is now 17lb below his last win at Wolverhampton and has shown he still holds enough ability to win a race or 2 in this grade since joining David Evans. His last 2 runs have come at Kempton, where he has looked like a nightmare to control in the early stages of the races, pulling like a train. He did run well on both occasions though finishing 3rd the first time then a close up 5th a day later probably finding 1m abit far. He drops back to 7f at his favoured Wolverhampton tomorrow, theres a couple of pace angles in this field, hopefully meaning they'll go a good gallop and Liam Keniry finds him slightly easier to control. And off a lowly mark in this grade i expect him to go well. Pipers Piping is the obvious danger but i'll take him on at the prices.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread There were actually a couple of others i liked at Wolverhampton tomorrow: Katmai River in the 18.00 and Fantasy Gladiator in the 21.00. I'll stick with the 2 i've already posted though and hope one of them can end my losing run!!

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread While i'm still waiting for todays selections to run i'll get in there with a nice early one for tomorrow. 3.30 - Lingfield - Avondream 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 Avondream ran well enough in 3 maidens last month to suggest a mark of 55 isn't beyond him. He was 3rd on debut over C&D, only beaten by 2 subsequent winners who are now rated in the mid/high 70's. He struggled upped in trip to 7f next time out but bounced back somewhat when returned to the minimum trip 3 days later, finishing a close up 5th. Its certainly worth noting that although he was only 5th in that 5f maiden last time, he was giving over a stone to the whole field, so to be beaten 2L wasn't a bad effort. I expect him to be better back at 6f too, having been slightly outpaced in the middle of the race last time before running on down the straight under a fairly considerate ride from Kirby. As i've mentioned he's been allotted a mark of 55, which considering he's open to improvement looks more than workable, Richard Kingscote takes the ride, he's been in super form of late and at 8/1 i'll take the chance he's up to this.

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

7.30 - Wolverhampton - Silverware 1pt @ 6/1 Paddypower Sorry in advance for the short write up on this one... I think a repeat of Silverware's last run would win this contest. He got within a neck of the C&D specialist Star Links lto who has since gone on to run well twice including winning a class 2 handicap. The 2 horses in behind him have also boosted the form (Stasio was 2nd nto and Dixie's Dream won well). He's abit of a C&D specialist himself, with his record over the extended mile here 2-1-2-1-3-2. He was put up 1lb for that latest place effort but down in grade and against a field he could just dominate against from the front i see no reason why he won't go very close.

8.30 - Wolverhampton - Fleetwoodsands 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I think this race lacks any depth at-all and if Fleetwoodsands manages to settle abit better than he has since coming back from a long break he may take a lot of beating. The 4 time C&D winner is now 17lb below his last win at Wolverhampton and has shown he still holds enough ability to win a race or 2 in this grade since joining David Evans. His last 2 runs have come at Kempton, where he has looked like a nightmare to control in the early stages of the races, pulling like a train. He did run well on both occasions though finishing 3rd the first time then a close up 5th a day later probably finding 1m abit far. He drops back to 7f at his favoured Wolverhampton tomorrow, theres a couple of pace angles in this field, hopefully meaning they'll go a good gallop and Liam Keniry finds him slightly easier to control. And off a lowly mark in this grade i expect him to go well. Pipers Piping is the obvious danger but i'll take him on at the prices.

:eyes Silverware was 3rd @ 11/4, never really looked like winning. The same remark can be made about Fleetwoodsands who had the tongue tie taken off down at the start which he has worn in every start since 2010 not sure if it had an effect but he was in trouble a long way out. He was also well backed, going off at 7/2... Got to be due a winner soon :hope Staked: 114pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +80.82pts

[Lodge]

Re: Lodge's Thread

While i'm still waiting for todays selections to run i'll get in there with a nice early one for tomorrow. 3.30 - Lingfield - Avondream 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 Avondream ran well enough in 3 maidens last month to suggest a mark of 55 isn't beyond him. He was 3rd on debut over C&D, only beaten by 2 subsequent winners who are now rated in the mid/high 70's. He struggled upped in trip to 7f next time out but bounced back somewhat when returned to the minimum trip 3 days later, finishing a close up 5th. Its certainly worth noting that although he was only 5th in that 5f maiden last time, he was giving over a stone to the whole field, so to be beaten 2L wasn't a bad effort. I expect him to be better back at 6f too, having been slightly outpaced in the middle of the race last time before running on down the straight under a fairly considerate ride from Kirby. As i've mentioned he's been allotted a mark of 55, which considering he's open to improvement looks more than workable, Richard Kingscote takes the ride, he's been in super form of late and at 8/1 i'll take the chance he's up to this.

Ran well but 3rd. No excuses, the winner looked well ahead of his mark.... Staked: 115pts Returned: 194.82ts P/L: +79.82pts