Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Germany v Portugal (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Nes*]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th mazic is a referee so penalty on match YES is a god bet :)

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Can you explain that further with stats and your thoughts, please? :)

[kevshat]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th 3pts Draw 23/10 Boylesports I think we’ll get maybe the first game in the tournament where sides take a bit of time to work each other out. This group is really competitive and all four sides will fancy their chances so avoiding defeat could be the priority over winning the game so we might get a more cautious encounter here. There are star players on both sides but a draw would probably suit both so that looks like a fair option to me in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/germany-vs-portugal-betting-group-g-opener-could-be-a-tight-game

[MPLouis]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Some value on Portugal here I think. My tally of shots on target stats from the countries' recent competitive games gives Portugal a higher rating, but their odds are longer for this match. Portugal +0.5 1.81 188Bet Stake: 5 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

Some value on Portugal here I think. My tally of shots on target stats from the countries' recent competitive games gives Portugal a higher rating, but their odds are longer for this match. Portugal +0.5 1.81 188Bet Stake: 5 points

Correction: on checking, actually Germany's rating is slightly higher, but only a little, and I think this indicates quite likely value on Portugal at the current odds

[trayman]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Germany defense seems very unconsistent at the moment... conceding a goal even against Armenia. On the other side Portugal with Cristiano Ronaldo strong like never before. Will definitely put some money at BTTS on this one.

[scouse joe]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th over 3.5 cards at 5/6 over at 365 looks decent to me. Someone has mentioned the referee above, have you any more info on him? I just feel 2 big nations on the biggest stage in football, there is surely going to be some tension and a few strong tackles.

[Broks]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Referee for this game will be Milorad Mazic. He likes to show cards, average 4-5 cards per game.

[Dan82]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

Referee for this game will be Milorad Mazic. He likes to show cards, average 4-5 cards per game.

http://www.football-lineups.com/referee/1601/ He likes a card or two, and the Portugese are more likely to hit the deck than a narcoleptic. I like this bet!!

[Broks]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

http://www.football-lineups.com/referee/1601/ He likes a card or two, and the Portugese are more likely to hit the deck than a narcoleptic. I like this bet!!

You mean, Portugal win?

[west64]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Yes, Maži? is easy on the card usually, averaging at (quite high) 4,46 yellow cards per match. Given that this is his first WC fixture, I expect him to establish some authority on the pitch, but latest matches I have seen with him as a ref, also show he allows for a more tough game, so these cards usually come after really sleazy tackles. Apart from the card market I am very tempted to back Portugal to score 2 or more goals @ 3.4 (bet365). The reason mainly behind Germany's poorer displays in recent weeks and combined with the ever dangerous Ronaldo, might see this game go over 2.5 or even 3.5. Out of those there is a strong inclination Portugal might get a result here. Hopefuly Ronaldo's injury is overstated and a part of the pre-game play, but as long as he is 80% fit, he will surely play and with that, the whole team gains certain confidence. The tournament so far has been amazing, providing many goals and I contribute that partly to the extremely high motivation of the players for this cup. I can only imagine how motivated will Ronaldo be.

[doink]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Can't look past Germany for this one. They have a good habit of starting world cups well and laying down a message. In the last 3 world cup opening matches they've scored 8, 4 & 4. This is a team that has reached the semi's in the last 3 world cups and 2 European championships, they always turn up. They also beat Portugal in their opening match of the 2012 Europeans. Portugal are in decent form but mostly against questionable oppositions. Their entire hopes rely on Ronaldo, if he doesn't score I don't see where the goals are coming from. Almeida & Postiga aren't good enough, Carvalho & Moutinho in midfield are class but don't score, Meireles & Nani are incredibly inconsistent. Compared to this German side who can get goals from anywhere and will dominate possession, I think they'll be looking to send a message here. Germany -1 @ 3.70 Betfair

[west64]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Considering that Joachim Low copied guardiolas play book and that Lahm (IMO on of the top3 RBs in the game) will be forced to team up with highly questionable Khedira (thats what the press is speculating will happen) in midfield, leaving the unnatural RB for Boateng (most likely) probably should yield quite a few breakthroughs by Ronaldo who I expect will be switching wings ingame. Germany's last game was utter rubbish, leaving many questions unanswered and I am left clueless as to what they can produce today. Klose up front would be my first choice out of the bunch, but everything implies that they will start with Muller upfront (another Guardiolas pearl taken up by Jogi). Pre-game im all over Portugal getting something out of this. Hopefuly the starting lineups will confirm my feelings so I can take the bets :)

[Alepou]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th 4/10 stake Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 @ Marathonbet I expect a very entertaining game here as both teams have good quality attacking players. I am not sure that Germany are as high favourites as the odds indicate so in maybe Portugal are a bit of value to win this game at 4.35 offered at Marathonbet with Betfair offering odds just below that level. Germany have shown defensive weaknesses lately and Portugal can take advantage of them. Personally, I am not willing to risk on Portugal's win. However, I will back the Over 2.5 goals as I expect both teams to score in this one (odds offered on BTTS are lower than those offered on the Over 2.5 goals).

[Abyss]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Card game Like someone did said above todays ref. is Milorad Maži?. His last 6 games that he have been ref in has a total of 36 cards (league games) and last time he did ref. on of todays team was Germany vs Austria 2013-09-06 where he show'd 7 yellow cards (3 to Germany and 4 to Austria). Today he will be ref for, as many say, one of WC bigger games against two nations that will fight about the first and the second place in there group, and when checking how the last 5 games between this team have been it looks like a card bet is good. 2012-06-09 Germany - Portugal 4 yellow 2008-06-08 Portugal - Germany 5 yellow 2006-07-08 Germany - Portugal 5 yellow 2000-06-20 Portugal - Germany 5 yellow 1997-09-06 Germany - Portugal 3 yellow, 1 red Betsson only gives 1.63 on over 3.5 cards but like scouse joe says above Bet365 gives much more.

[MPLouis]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

Card game Like someone did said above todays ref. is Milorad Maži?. His last 6 games that he have been ref in has a total of 36 cards (league games) and last time he did ref. on of todays team was Germany vs Austria 2013-09-06 where he show'd 7 yellow cards (3 to Germany and 4 to Austria). Today he will be ref for, as many say, one of WC bigger games against two nations that will fight about the first and the second place in there group, and when checking how the last 5 games between this team have been it looks like a card bet is good. 2012-06-09 Germany - Portugal 4 yellow 2008-06-08 Portugal - Germany 5 yellow 2006-07-08 Germany - Portugal 5 yellow 2000-06-20 Portugal - Germany 5 yellow 1997-09-06 Germany - Portugal 3 yellow, 1 red Betsson only gives 1.63 on over 3.5 cards but like scouse joe says above Bet365 gives much more.

I remembered Kevin Pullein did a page on the World Cup referees in the Racing Post World Cup guide. He says of Mazic: "New kid on the block ... 8 games and 2 seasons in the Champions League ... averaged 39 bookings points ... a bit under par"

[averick]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th do you guys think there's value on the over 4.5 bookings line at 2.46?

[senk]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

Considering that Joachim Low copied guardiolas play book and that Lahm (IMO on of the top3 RBs in the game) will be forced to team up with highly questionable Khedira (thats what the press is speculating will happen) in midfield, leaving the unnatural RB for Boateng (most likely) probably should yield quite a few breakthroughs by Ronaldo who I expect will be switching wings ingame. Germany's last game was utter rubbish, leaving many questions unanswered and I am left clueless as to what they can produce today. Klose up front would be my first choice out of the bunch, but everything implies that they will start with Muller upfront (another Guardiolas pearl taken up by Jogi). Pre-game im all over Portugal getting something out of this. Hopefuly the starting lineups will confirm my feelings so I can take the bets :)

I agree here, I think Germany showed lately that they are vulnerable at the back. Playing lahm as a defensive mid wouldn't surely be my choice. They need him to control Ronaldo with his pace and experience. I think Boateng will be up for this task tonight. Probably Mertesacker will partner up Hummels in the centre and this guy is so slow unreal. Portugal's style of killing a game defensively and hitting their opponent on a fast break suits very well here against these kinda teams. Germany will surely control possesion something Portugal likes to see so they can make use of errors in midfield. Schweinsteiger is a hugh blow cause I don't rate Khedira at all. He's a hard working guy but slow and can't keep up the tempo something Germany really needs if they wanna open up portugal. Some reports say that Ozil will play upfront as a falae number 9. If so, I will surely back Portugal on the handicap with decent stakes. If it's Muller than I'll be a bit more cautious cause I like him as a striker but Portugal's defense is pretty solid. Only real danger Germany has is Schurrle in my opinion. He's in top form and always dangerous when he plays on the wings. Will be hard anyways to find the net. Portugal will surely be glad when they avoid defeat so their aproach to this game will be clear to all of us. With a lot of pace upfront with Nani, Varela and Ronaldo they can really hurt Germany tonight and I'm leaning towards Portugal +0.5 and if ozil plays in the center I might even back Portugal to win. Expecting a low scoring game with Portugal keeping things tight. I'll try under 2.5 goals and Portugal +0.5 for some stakes.

[Indiejim]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Think this game will be a really nervy game with both teams not wanting to lose. Ronaldos fitness it not yet confirmed as 100% so we will see how much he can do. Germany will probably start without a recognised striker. My thoughts are 1-0 either way or a 0-0.

[Mugetsu]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th I can see this being the most tense game we have seen so far. Neither sides World cup would be over with an opening game defeat and a draw would surely be a decent option overall. I dont like alot of the goal markets as there are so many potential match winners in both teams but what I do like the look of are the result/time markets. Im preferring the look of DRAW @ 30 MINS @8/11. I dont imagine that Germany are going to go all out attack from the off and both defences are solid enough to withstand the early tests placed upon them. Ronaldo is not 100% fit and I doubt he is going to fire on all cylinders in the opening 20/30 minutes and potentially risk the rest of his world cup. Germany for large portions of their last warm up game against Armenia looked lost for ideas or inspiration. It took 52 minutes for the deadlock to be broken and id envisage that Pepe and pals will be even more resolute than the plucky Armenians. Saying this, Germany looked vulnerable at times to direct attacks and crosses. With players like Ronaldo and Nani running at their defence and supplying ammo for Hugo Almeida I can see chances being made and in all honesty, probably converted. Germany will most likely come into the game and will seek to punish a tiring Portugal late on with their substitutes and never say die attitude. There may well be goals in this game but I do not see them happening early on. DRAW @ 30MINS @8/11 LADBROKES HUGO ALMEIDA TO SCORE ANYTIME @ 29/10 LADBROKES GERMANY TO SCORE THE LAST GOAL @ 2/3 LADBROKES

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th So, as I have some free time, some quick thoughts about the game today. As a Portuguese, I must say I am fairly confident. Not that Germany are not strong, far from that, they are one of the favourites in such quality in all the 23 players. A good thing in the Paulo Bento era is how we perform under pressure: we tend to exceed ourselves. When Portugal really need to show up and to win, we do. Which worries me about today though, as we can lose and win the next 2 games and probably get through, but there is a clear feeling today that we want to win. Expecting the following XI in a 4-3-3: Rui Patricio; João Pereira, Pepe, Bruno Alves, Fabio Coentrão; Veloso, Meireles, Moutinho; Ronaldo, Postiga, Nani. We will probably give the ball to Germany as most as possible, and I expect us to have around 40% possession by the end of the 90' minutes. We will probably play on the counter, just like we did against Sweden in the second game, and I really doubt that we don't get to score one at least. If we eventually concede before scoring, we have what it takes to assume the possession and get a goal back as soon as possible. We will probably try to get some corners. Although Germany has 4 central defenders, and probably Bastian and Khedira, none of them are as strong in the air as Pepe, Bruno Alves and Ronaldo. Postiga has a good heading ability as well, although shorter. We do have some weapons regarding other moments: Fabio Coentrão is very strong in overlapping and individual 1-on-1, and if Muller doesn't close the wing, Germany are off for some trouble. We have amazing set pieces, all of our set piece moments: direct FK, indirect FK and corners are always dangerous, with the likes of Ronaldo and Veloso. Veloso is very important in the set pieces, he usually takes them...almost perfectly! And then, there is Bruno Alves, Ronaldo, Pepe to get those headings in! Can't trust the Germany defence in the set piece defensive department, and they usually tend to concede on corners on the big stage. Portugal also has some good options in the bench. Manchester United-target William Carvalho has impressive physical and short passing ability, might be the correct choice to employ a 4-2-3-1 if needed, or to secure more possession. Perfect when losing. Ruben Amorim is an excellent midfielder, which will possibly get in during the match when Meireles is done. Hugo Almeida/Eder are two good strikers, more physical than Postiga, and I expect them to play as well. Varela and Vieirinha are solid wingers to play if needed. We can't rule out that it's Germany on the other half. They are truly impressive in Low's era, although without convincing that much on the big stage. Only fancied them on the WC 2010, they never convinced me on the EURO 2008 and 2012. They are facing some physical issues and defensive problems. Their defensive line is very slow, ultra-defensive (4 CBs), and I don't rate them highly in terms of general quality. Good thing they have the best GK in the world behind them. However, midfield and attack is world class and they have an enormous number of game-changing options. I feel we will have the most problems in stopping the wings, specially Schurrle/Podolski should they play. João Pereira isn't the best defensive wing-back in the world. Also hoping that Bastian does not play, he is an outstading midfielder, and usually scores against Portugal and Portuguese teams. Looks Muller will play in the XI as well, correct choice from Low to me. Their most dangerous player for me. Fabio Coentrão will have a lot of trouble with him, should he stick in the right wing as a false 9. My heart says Portugal will shock everyone and win this one. The country feels that this is the moment, everyone is very confident in Paulo Bento and in the team. It's our time to make a point out here and show that Portugal can beat the best nations in the world. I had a small bet on 2-1 for us, but nothing serious as I still feel this is a very unpredictable match, to be honest. Think odds are not adjusted as it should be, Germany should be much higher (closer to 2.20). But if you gave me your money, I would back the draw. For those punters searching for gold, Portugal might get some corners, especially if trying to score after conceding. Over 4.5 Corners looks very solid, if you manage to get Over 5.5 Corners, even better. Bruno Alves is a goal machine in corners and set piece free-kicks (scored one against Mexico the other day), you can grab a Bruno Alves TSA @ 16 on Unibet, and Bruno Alves to score a header @ 26 on Unibet as well. Careful with the ref, card-friendly as well.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Germany V Portugal Under 2.5 @ 11/10 (Betfair) > 5% BR The price on under 2.5 for this game has simply become too big to ignore here. Under 2.5 for Germany V Portugal was around 8/13 when I looked at it a week ago, now it’s odds against – ridiculous. My only explanation for this is that casual punters have been seeing the high number of goals in the tournament so far and simply made the correlation that it will continue here in a match between two quality sides. I’ve been banging on about the tropical zone in a few of my world cup posts but again, this game will take place in the tropical zone, near 30 degree heat, 75% humidity. Rain is again forecast and although this can temporarily cool the players, it will make their shirts heavier as the game goes on and will feel more and more oppressive as events progress. I think in respect to both teams we will see two well organized units with decent game management. The fact that these two are favorites to qualify and go head to head in opening game should definitely be considered as an argument for unders here. For me this is not a particularly cavalier Portugal side (I don’t care how many goals they’ve scored in the warm up games), I find it likely coach Paulo Bento will take a cautious approach to this match. People will talk about Ronaldo but his preparations have been hampered for this tournament through injury. I’m sure he will play today but in terms of fitness, not likely to be at his peak. The same goes for several members of the Germany squad, Reus is out as we know and he is someone who can give them a bit extra going forward so it’s a blow for them. The tournament in Brazil has been really great so far with lots of high scoring matches which has surprised me, especially since it’s the opening round of games. I feel this contest has the potential to be a rare underish game, the price on overs is stupidly short in my opinion so I will go the other way. Under 2.5 at odds against might not win on the day but over a large sample size I feel this selection will generate profit. Standard value bet, nuff said.

[NoFear]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Portugal: Patricio, Alves, Pepe, Veloso, Coentrao, Ronaldo, Moutinho, Almeida, Meireles, Nani, Pereira Germany: Neuer, Howedes, Hummels, Khedira, Ozil, Muller, Lahm, Mertesacker, Kroos, Gotze, Boateng

[MPLouis]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

For those punters searching for gold, Portugal might get some corners, especially if trying to score after conceding. Over 4.5 Corners looks very solid, if you manage to get Over 5.5 Corners, even better. Bruno Alves is a goal machine in corners and set piece free-kicks (scored one against Mexico the other day), you can grab a Bruno Alves TSA @ 16 on Unibet, and Bruno Alves to score a header @ 26 on Unibet as well. Careful with the ref, card-friendly as well.

The thing is I don't think Germany's defence don't concede many corners.

[markus808]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

Germany V Portugal Under 2.5 @ 11/10 (Betfair) > 5% BR The price on under 2.5 for this game has simply become too big to ignore here. Under 2.5 for Germany V Portugal was around 8/13 when I looked at it a week ago, now it’s odds against – ridiculous. My only explanation for this is that casual punters have been seeing the high number of goals in the tournament so far and simply made the correlation that it will continue here in a match between two quality sides. I’ve been banging on about the tropical zone in a few of my world cup posts but again, this game will take place in the tropical zone, near 30 degree heat, 75% humidity. Rain is again forecast and although this can temporarily cool the players, it will make their shirts heavier as the game goes on and will feel more and more oppressive as events progress. I think in respect to both teams we will see two well organized units with decent game management. The fact that these two are favorites to qualify and go head to head in opening game should definitely be considered as an argument for unders here. For me this is not a particularly cavalier Portugal side (I don’t care how many goals they’ve scored in the warm up games), I find it likely coach Paulo Bento will take a cautious approach to this match. People will talk about Ronaldo but his preparations have been hampered for this tournament through injury. I’m sure he will play today but in terms of fitness, not likely to be at his peak. The same goes for several members of the Germany squad, Reus is out as we know and he is someone who can give them a bit extra going forward so it’s a blow for them. The tournament in Brazil has been really great so far with lots of high scoring matches which has surprised me, especially since it’s the opening round of games. I feel this contest has the potential to be a rare underish game, the price on overs is stupidly short in my opinion so I will go the other way. Under 2.5 at odds against might not win on the day but over a large sample size I feel this selection will generate profit. Standard value bet, nuff said.

Have to agree it is clear value and it's overcorrection from punters, I took it only because of the big drift. Portugal is good team defensively and Germany should play cautiously in the first round, draw is not bad result for either of team and with the news that Ronaldo is starting Germany will play with more respect. x2 also seems value @ 1.92 triobet, it is similalrly prized like the Spain - NED game, but the gaps in differences are not that big and neither team must not win at all costs, this is why I went with small amount on x2 and main bet Under 2.5 @ 11/10 You can always pick correct score 2-1 to germany as a insurance and go heavy on the other two, which is what I just might do.

[JuMeSyn]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th You should check the stats for the latest friendlies :) Maybe Portugal to have more corners. Was 2.50 on bet365 during the morning, also a good one.

[Nes*]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

mazic is a referee so penalty on match YES is a god bet :)

winnn :D

[MPLouis]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th

Some value on Portugal here I think. My tally of shots on target stats from the countries' recent competitive games gives Portugal a higher rating, but their odds are longer for this match. Portugal +0.5 1.81 188Bet Stake: 5 points

Result: Germany 4 Portugal 0 Bet lost Stake: 5 points Return: nil Germany more or less completely dominated the show, even before Portugal went down to 10 men. I was particularly impressed with Germany's defence - which looked one of the strongest in the tournament.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Group G - Germany v Portugal > Monday June 16th Jeepers, another goal feast! Very open game right from the off, probably would have been even more goals if Almeida hadn't been injured and Pepe wasn't sent off. Totally underestimated the attacking intent in this game and how poor the defences were. Well done to those on Overs and Germany.