key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013

[beaker1]

thoughts,stories and anything relating to the race in here: [TABLE=class: tableData, width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Long Run[/TD] [TD]5/4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Unioniste[/TD] [TD]10/3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]First Lieutenant[/TD] [TD]4/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cape Tribulation[/TD] [TD]7/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harry Topper[/TD] [TD]7/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Benefficient[/TD] [TD]8/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wayward Prince[/TD] [TD]20/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Big Fella Thanks[/TD] [TD]25/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Billie Magern[/TD] [TD]33/1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Master Of The Hall[/TD] [TD]33/1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[beaker1]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 taken from sporting life: Wetherby going remains good to soft The going at Wetherby remains good to soft following another dry day on Wednesday with goingstick readings of 6.3 on the chase course and 6.2 the hurdles track. Their two-day fixture, which includes the Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase, gets under way on Friday. Wetherby's Chief Executive and Clerk of the Course, Jonjo Sanderson, said on Wednesday afternoon: "We have had no rain whatsoever since Monday morning and both Tuesday and today have been dry and sunny. Although the ground has dried marginally, the going remains Good to Soft, with an average GoingStick reading of 6.3. "There are some weather forecasts suggesting that cloud will build overnight and there is a chance of a light rain shower into Thursday morning. "Tomorrow is expected to be similar to today, with a dry day and the chance of a further light rain shower overnight into Friday."

[Toast]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 At those prices, Cape Tribulation would be the 1. Goes very well fresh, needs soft ground and has Wetherby form. Long Run would be a lay. He won't be spot on fitness wise, as his major targets are at Haydock pre Christmas and Kempton, and he's always prone to the odd dodgy jump, which he won't get away with around Wetherby. Also a worry with these French bred jumpers is how long they can hold their form for, Kauto Star and The Fellow exempt.

[Smarty72]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 Think this is one of those races where the obvious choice will be the winner........Long Run! The danger in this race is trying to look for an alternative to beat Long Run when none are good enough with the only exception First Lieutenant (who is more likely to stay in Ireland for an alternative race rather than travel over). The rest are simply not good enough to beat Long Run who has an exceptional race record. Long Run has a current OR of 171 and at his peak was 182. Ground and distance of no concern and an exceptional jumping record at the highest level. Very consistent performer and even if he runs below form should still be to good for his rivals. Unioniste is rated 18lb inferior to Long Run yet only receives 4lb due to race conditions. Even with expected improvement by Unioniste, Long Run would have to run well below form and Unioniste improve significantly. First Lieutenant is probably the only equal to Long Run rated 170 but unlikely to run. If declared would be my bet as has the advantage of a recent run. Cape Tribulation is rated 11lb inferior to Long run but runs of level weights. Form suggests to me that Cape Tribulation is a long way from been top class and is probably a 150 to 155 horse. Lots to find to beat Long Run. Harry Topper is rated 19lb inferior to Long Run but only gets 4lb allowance. Ran some decent races as a Novice Chaser last year and likely to improve this year but would need to put in a massive improvement to beat Long Run. Benefficient - Likely to be declared a Non Runner. Rated 14lb inferior to Long run but only receives 5lb allowance. Wayward Prince is rated 24lb inferior to Long Run and runs off level weights with Long Run. Not likely to get close but has had a recent run over hurdles so fitness not an issue. Still wont be enough to get close to Long Run. Master Of The Hall 23lb inferior but gets 10lb however this horse is over rated by the handicapper probably due to been in the care of Nicky Henderson until recently. Billie Magern 29lbs inferior but gets 10lb and is the rank outsider for a reason, simply not good enough. No previous form to suggest anywhere near good enough at this level. Long Run looks good value to win at 5/4 with PP, WH or BV against vastly inferior opposition. Be interested on other peoples views on this.

[Aidymac]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 Can't argue with that Smarty. Was chatting to BH about this and I reckon Long Run could go off 4/7 or shorter if FL does not show up. Even if he does, Long Run is a better horse.. the 5/4 looks like a solid bet.

[beaker1]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 the only thing that puts me off long run is that he as not won 1st time out in the last 3 seasons

[Smarty72]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013

the only thing that puts me off long run is that he as not won 1st time out in the last 3 seasons

That is true but look at the horses that beat him on seaonal debut. Long Run was 2nd on seasonal debut to Silviniaco Conti last year at Haydock who had the benefit of a run (winner of this race). In 2012 was 2nd on seasonal debut to Kauto Star again at Haydock. 2011 was probably Long Runs most disappointing seasonal debut when only 3rd in his last handicap chase run running over an inadequate distance of 2m 4.5f and 2nd top weight. Nothing in this race will have an advantage with race fitness with only First Lieutenant (Unlikely to Run), Wayward Prince and Billie Magern having had runs recently and do not see that last 2 as winners!

[Smarty72]

Probably setting myself up for big fall here but just can not see what can beat Long Run on all available evidence.

[BillyHills]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 Going to Wetherby on Saturday so hope most of the runners stand their ground. Nice to see Sam Twiston-Davies getting his chance with Paul Nicholls, i'm sure at some stage in the future he will be riding for him much more often and could be the one to take over the jockeys championship when AP retires in a couple of years? The race is slightly disappointing to me when you consider all the horses who were 'supposed' to be going for this. First Lieutenant and Benefficient have Irish engagements, we have already lost Grands Crus and The Giant Bolster. I like Cape Tribulation at the prices and wont mind if the ground goes soft, has shortened up now though from a couple of days ago but i'm on EW first three and i really cant see him being out of the frame. Long Run is the class horse but does need a run to put him right but this year is not going to Haydock and maybe this is a 'real' target and will be fitter this time round? Unioniste is the dark horse, only 5 and could find loads of improvement like Silviniaco Conti did last year, he will need to at the weights but if LR is not fully wound up then this chap will be. The others are going for place money in my opinion although i have heard arguments for Harry Topper but i'm not convinced by his jumping at the highest level, just makes too many errors for me. I thinks its too simplistic just to look at the ratings and the weights at this stage of the season, if only it was that easy, you need to figure out which horses are targeting this race and which have bigger fish to fry later on. Its a long season and some will run in this because they have few other options like Long Run for example. Bobs Worth is going to Haydock so LR has to run here instead, i'm not saying he's not the best horse in the race but it just puts me off backing him at around Evens. I reckon Cape Tribulation is the value bet although it would be a different race if First Lieutenant turned up!

[joeblitz]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 It has to be Cape Tribulation with Henderson's horses running very badly right now. Until or unless Henderson wins a race between this and then, you should not consider backing Long Run.

[BillyHills]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 AP jocked up on Benefficient so he could run now.

[Elchubb]

Not really sure how you can say Henderson's horses are running badly?? If you'd backed everyone of his runners in October you'd be up about 15 points to level stakes!

[BillyHills]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 Final Decs;

[Smarty72]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 Nice final field but still think Long Run is the bet and horse to beat and surprised that he has not shortened in the betting with all horses available at similar odds to earlier in the week this despite First Lieutenant removed from the betting at odds of around 4\1. Little value in betting before final declarations unless betting each-way where the extra place could be secured! Should be a good race to watch with 3 of last years top novice chasers moving up ranks to compete with the big boys! Should be interesting to see which one will make the grade and become a contender for top races over the next 6 months. Long Run sets the standard and any horse that beats it will be one to consider for the future.

[Trotter]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 I think Wayward Prince could be an EW bet at 40/1 but the 7 runner field puts me off. He finished 2nd in this last year and this time round he's had a prep run over hurdles. He won over this CD at grade 2 level as a novice. I think this is his 'Gold Cup' and he's probably been trained to the minute whereas many of the others will be having a run here as preparation for grade 2 one races to come Long Run has not won on his seasonal debut for the last 3 seasons although of course he usually makes his seasonal debut in a grade one race and this should be a bit easier. He's run in a lot of tough races and there might just be signs that he's plateaued and is on the way down. For example he's only won 1 of his last 5 races. I doubt they've got him fully wound up for this, he'll be being prepared for Kempton. He might be good enough to win on pure class but I'm skipping him Cape Tribulation and Benefficient both generally come on for their first run of the season. The Irish horse also not sure to get this trip - he usually runs over shorter and didn't appear to get home over 3 miles at Newbury last season, Cape Tribulation ran poorly on this card last year after a prep run on the flat. His last 2 wins have been on Heavy and if the going remains good to soft you can see him being outpaced Unioniste is interesting - a young horse who had a good season last year. He also looks particularly well suited to heavy ground and got outpaced in the RSA on good to soft. He's still only 5 years old and might need another year over fences before he can take on the mature horses Harry Topper has a sporting chance - his form figs don't look great as he finished last season by unseating when odds on at Kelso, then was brought down at Punchestown. Before that he'd won his first 3 chases and looked quite impressive. Beat Benefficient in a grade 2. Connections took it easy with him last season and avoided Cheltenham as they thought he had some physical development still to make and reckoned he would go right to the top of the staying chase division this year........... Selections Harry Topper - win at 8/1 bog bet365 Wayward Prince - EW at 40/1 bog bet365

[Smarty72]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013

Probably setting myself up for big fall here but just can not see what can beat Long Run on all available evidence.

Got that totally wrong! Long Run ran the worst race of his career and looked a shadow of his former self! Well done Trotter great result for you! Hope you did the forecast as well! Lots of Humble pie for my supper tonight

[BillyHills]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 Well done Trotter:ok great day out, will post photos another day.

[Aidymac]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013

I think Wayward Prince could be an EW bet at 40/1 but the 7 runner field puts me off. He finished 2nd in this last year and this time round he's had a prep run over hurdles. He won over this CD at grade 2 level as a novice. I think this is his 'Gold Cup' and he's probably been trained to the minute whereas many of the others will be having a run here as preparation for grade 2 one races to come Long Run has not won on his seasonal debut for the last 3 seasons although of course he usually makes his seasonal debut in a grade one race and this should be a bit easier. He's run in a lot of tough races and there might just be signs that he's plateaued and is on the way down. For example he's only won 1 of his last 5 races. I doubt they've got him fully wound up for this, he'll be being prepared for Kempton. He might be good enough to win on pure class but I'm skipping him Cape Tribulation and Benefficient both generally come on for their first run of the season. The Irish horse also not sure to get this trip - he usually runs over shorter and didn't appear to get home over 3 miles at Newbury last season, Cape Tribulation ran poorly on this card last year after a prep run on the flat. His last 2 wins have been on Heavy and if the going remains good to soft you can see him being outpaced Unioniste is interesting - a young horse who had a good season last year. He also looks particularly well suited to heavy ground and got outpaced in the RSA on good to soft. He's still only 5 years old and might need another year over fences before he can take on the mature horses Harry Topper has a sporting chance - his form figs don't look great as he finished last season by unseating when odds on at Kelso, then was brought down at Punchestown. Before that he'd won his first 3 chases and looked quite impressive. Beat Benefficient in a grade 2. Connections took it easy with him last season and avoided Cheltenham as they thought he had some physical development still to make and reckoned he would go right to the top of the staying chase division this year........... Selections Harry Topper - win at 8/1 bog bet365 Wayward Prince - EW at 40/1 bog bet365

Unreal stuff Trotter! No forecast? :eek

[Tedthewolf]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 Excellent stuff Trot:notworthy

[Trotter]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 Cheers guys never mind the forecast, I didn't even have a bet ! :unsure I've got out of the habit of betting...............I need to get cracking again :p

[mowgli77]

Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 They are saying Long Run scoped badly after the race. He's supposed to be heading to Haydock next for the Betfair Chase but will come up against Bobs Worth. Can't get too excited about that race yesterday. Harry Topper beats a 50-1 chance and I wouldn't follow either of them in the top races for the rest of the season.