England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

[Shipsupstreets]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 13 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Aldershot Town v Dartford (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.88 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Alfreton Town v Kidderminster Harriers (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19/20 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.63 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Braintree Town v Woking (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19/10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.37 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Chester FC v Hereford United (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19/20 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.63 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Halifax Town v Wrexham (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6/4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]108.76 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Gateshead v Grimsby Town (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 17/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]108.12 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Hyde FC v Southport (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19/10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.56 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Lincoln City v Macclesfield Town (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]108.20 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Luton Town v Salisbury City (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.00 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Nuneaton Town v Forest Green Rovers (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19/20 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.36 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Tamworth v Barnet (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]108.77 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 14 August 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Welling United v Cambridge United (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]110.18 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[bromsgrovegreen]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug the two games I am looking at are Kidderminster at alfreton(odds against at bet365)alfreton imo are going to struggle this season while kiddy without a massive budget but with steve burr in charge are a quality outfit.i can never understand why burrs never linked with the big jobs like luton and second division sides hes done a tremendous job at aggborough. secondly Wrexham at Halifax mainly due to the fact that Halifax played today for seventy minutes with nine men and have to go again on Tuesday night, a big ask imo. be interested in punters thoughts before I get involved though

[Darran]

Already backed Wrexham. Sounds like they weren't great against Welling but Halifax players looked exhausted at the end of today's game and that is the main reason behind backing them. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[kevshat]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug Makes no difference to me but it is strange Halifax are playing on Tuesday yet Cambridge play Wednesday. Any reason why Halifax couldn't play Wednesday?

[shergar4]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

Makes no difference to me but it is strange Halifax are playing on Tuesday yet Cambridge play Wednesday. Any reason why Halifax couldn't play Wednesday?

Apparently the club never requested it specifically and so we play again Tuesday. We did ask the league to play all of our Midweek games on a Wednesday to allow us still to train twice in these weeks but that was knocked back. I believe Cambridge play on Wednesday and I think that although the events of the game yesterday couldn't be foreseen (see my reply to you yesterday regarding the game) this shorter rest period will have consequences on Tuesday. I do think Aspin will make changes for this game partly due to fitness and also how naïve we looked when we put under pressure early in the game yesterday.

[Labrador]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug At 9/5 (Bet 365) I feel Gateshead may be a bit of value despite witnessing their comprehensive defeat on Saturday. Either side of HT Gateshead controlled the game well in midfield and offered a decent threat through the impressive James Brown. Up front, though, Brodie and Boyes were ineffective and well marshalled by Gowling and Dunkley. Going by the reports and considering the problems faced by Aldershot, Grimsby seem to have been pretty poor in struggling to a 1-1 home draw. It looks to me that they might struggle to get anything from Gateshead. For similar reasons to those already on this thread, I've also backed Wrexham and Kidderminster.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug Aldershot v Dartford So Aldershot’s hastily brought together team performed with great credit at Grimsby on Saturday and probably deserved to take all three points. The question I have though is if they can follow that up or was it just a case of beginners luck and a want to perform well on the first day? I am happy to oppose them again especially as Dartford got off to a winning start and mainly because they have Adam Birchall. He scored the winner against Alfreton and he looks capable of being a big player for Dartford whilst they have him on loan from Gillingham. I am surprised they are as big as 11/5 (Bet 365) to pick up three points on Tuesday and that looks worth a punt as I would have them at shorter. Alfreton v Kidderminster Alfreton didn’t perform that well against Dartford on Saturday and only managed one shot on target, which was more proof that they are lacking a striker at the moment. A lack of cutting edge is likely to cost them whilst the try and sign someone else and Kidderminster look over-priced to me. They got off to a flyer on Saturday against a decent Gateshead side and look to have plenty of goals in the team. I would probably have them at a shade of odds on to win this so BetVictor’s 23/20 looks a good bet. Halifax v Wrexham We didn’t really learn a lot from BT Sport’s first live game given Halifax ended up having two men sent off in the first half. Obviously it was rather easy for Cambridge after that as they ended up 5-1 winners. Wrexham won on Saturday although they did struggle to beat Welling 2-1 and that performance means I don’t want to go over the top here, but with Halifax playing for so long in the heat with nine-men that has to be a big advantage for Wrexham. The Halifax players looked exhausted at the end of the game and with just over 48 hours between the matches it is going to be tough for the part-time side. Halifax’s defence looked pretty dodgy as well and it looks like it might take them a few games to adjust to live in the Skrill Premier. Wrexham have already been backed but at 5/4 with Coral they are still worth investing in. Lincoln v Macclesfield Macclesfield were second best by a fair way against Nuneaton on Saturday which obviously surprised me as I didn’t expect Nuneaton to be up too much on the opening day after a tough pre-season. Now it did interest me that Lincoln’s manager thought they didn’t have a great pre-season and he didn’t know what to expect against Woking, but they preformed decently enough to gain a point at a team who should be in for a good season. Lincoln have a decent side themselves and should be capable of a solid mid-table finish. I was thinking Macclesfield were maybe not going to struggle as much as some were saying, but after Saturday’s effort they clearly need to improve fast and I don’t think they will. Lincoln look a solid bet at BetVictor’s 5/4 to win their first home game of the season. Nuneaton v Forest Green Rovers Granted it was only a ten man Hyde, but the way Forest Green demolished them on Saturday, suggests they are going to have a very good season. The strength and depth of their strike force was proven by the fact they scored eight and I always like it when a side probably punishes a team that has been weakened. I am not sure why BetVictor are even money for them to win on Tuesday because if these two teams are going to finish in the table where I think they will then FGR would not be even money if this game was played later in the season. I think Nuneaton benefitted from playing a poor side on Saturday and Tuesday night is going to be completely different against the best squad in the league.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug Excellent stuff, addpea. I take your point about Adam Birchall and it was an excellent goal on Saturday. He certainly looks fitter and stronger than last season. His player goal minutes are set at 16 to buy with Sporting Index on the spreads and that's a decent buy in the circumstances - Aldershot were superb on Saturday but it's still a pretty inexperienced defence. There will be goals in this one, I think.

[harry_rag]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

Excellent stuff' date=' addpea. I take your point about Adam Birchall and it was an excellent goal on Saturday. He certainly looks fitter and stronger than last season. His player goal minutes are set at 16 to buy with Sporting Index on the spreads and that's a decent buy in the circumstances - Aldershot were superb on Saturday but it's still a pretty inexperienced defence. There will be goals in this one, I think.[/quote'] You've sold me on that one, having considered your comments and his career stats, and I've followed accordingly. I'd equate a goal minutes buy at 16 to around 13/5 anytime when the best price available (admittedly with only 2 firms quoting) is just 13/8. Looks like a decent value bet. I've also had a Trixie on >3.5 goals in the games at Braintree, Hyde and Nuneaton, all at 2/1 with Hills. All 3 made my shortlist as I made the "true" odds a shade less than 2/1, though only just. The first 2 look the stronger selections based on last season's stats for the teams and I did consider just doing them in a double. These aren't strong enough selections for "proper" single bets and, to be honest, I'm probably guilty of having a bet because I've made the effort of looking at every game and can't bring myself to say "no bet". Happy enough to play to small stakes though.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug Alfreton have signed John Akinde who I am a big fan off from his Ebbsfleet days. Granted he has struggled since then so may take time to get up too speed, but he will help Alfreton I think.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug Three home dogs today is very unusual...even one is unusual early in a season, as it normally takes a number of weeks (months, even) before odds rise to such an extent that good teams are favored for the outright win on away. Beginning my sixth season of keeping track of all favorites of under 1.99, home dogs of up to 4.99 are 3-4-4 (27% wins, 36% draws) in the first six weeks of Conference play. That breaks down to 3-1-1 on weekends, 0-3-3 on midweek games. That's a very small sample, but it gibes with the overall home-dog figures for those five-plus seasons: 47-52-77 (27% wins, 29% draws). Nighttime midweek games have drawn more often than daytime weekend games during that period, and home dogs in midweek games do also: 32%. Statistically speaking, you can expect one of the three dogs to get a draw today: Nuneaton, Halifax, Alfreton. My personal experience is that the one you least expect is the one that surprises you in the end, and vice versa. I'll be on all three, of course. At the moment Halifax is, strangely, the worst odds (3.7), and Nuneaton the best (3.9). I'll wait until an hour before the games, as the odds usually rise and rise during the day and then the value bettors drive the price back down.

[Aidymac]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug I don't know an awful lot about the Conference if I am honest but I want to get involved with ye guys throughout the season. I understand fully why ye have Wrexham backed, they should win, but at around 2.00 I said I would leave it be. My reasoning for backing Southport is simple really, they beat Luton last time out and Luton are one of the main favourites for the league. On the other hand, Hyde lost 8-0 at Forest Green, albeit they went down to 10 men early. However, playing with 10 men for such a long period of time should have really tired the players out. Just looking through Hyde's home form in the Conference, they have lost 7 of their last 10 at home and Southport won this fixture 2-0 last year. Now, I am not sure myself on how much the teams have strengthened over the summer, but I am more than happy to get involved at 2.5 as I am sure an 8-0 drubbing will leave Hyde's morale quite low. Southport v Hyde - Southport to WIN - 5 Points @ 2.5 Betfair

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug I'm trying to find an easy-to-scan database that would show me all games, all leagues, where a team has two men or more sent off...I want to know how teams perform the following game, with everybody tired and two players unavailable. I suspect the odds inflate significantly after such games and that tremendous value is created, but until I get the data I really don't know. My list from this week (to check against next week): Feyenoord Halifax Wolfsburg Kecskemeti Santiago Wanderers Oeste New England Shamrock Rovers Internacional Assyriska Pecsi

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug Is all this tiredness malarkey overstated? I would think players would tire more in an end to end game than one where they don´t get out of their own half because they never have the ball. I suppose Opta have the answers with their figures for yardage run by players during a game. When it´s ten men most teams will go 4.4.1, so if anyone is inconvenienced it´s the forward who if the team expect it will have to close down more, but equally the team might concede possession and just play deeper. The nine men will have to work harder, but who and how much all depends on the set up, the defence won´t be covering more ground, they´ll just be under more pressure, mentally tiring perhaps, physically tiring, not that much, not in my opinion. It´s an interesting one.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug Traffic on the M62 meant that some Halifax Town players arrived at the ground as late as 7.15, so not ideal preparation. The kick off has been put back to 8pm though as many Wrexham fans are delayed.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

Is all this tiredness malarkey overstated? I would think players would tire more in an end to end game than one where they don´t get out of their own half because they never have the ball. I suppose Opta have the answers with their figures for yardage run by players during a game. When it´s ten men most teams will go 4.4.1, so if anyone is inconvenienced it´s the forward who if the team expect it will have to close down more, but equally the team might concede possession and just play deeper. The nine men will have to work harder, but who and how much all depends on the set up, the defence won´t be covering more ground, they´ll just be under more pressure, mentally tiring perhaps, physically tiring, not that much, not in my opinion. It´s an interesting one.

Did you watch the game? They were exhausted at the end the game you could tell. Also they have had one less day to recover than Wrexham anyway regardless of how many men they had on the pitch.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug No I didn´t watch the game, my point was a general point and as I suggest above circumstances of the game and attitude with nine men etc will have a bearing. What sort of exhaustion was it? Heavy limbed or heaving lungs? Lungs recover just like that and are soon ready to go again, tired legs need more time but with a proper warm up etc that needn´t be a problem, it´s knocks and niggles that really take their toll. I don´t think football is that physically tiring a game, not on good pitches, in many games most players come off fresh as a daisy. Aspin doesn´t appear to be too concerned as some good players remain on the bench tonight.

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

No I didn´t watch the game, my point was a general point and as I suggest above circumstances of the game and attitude with nine men etc will have a bearing. What sort of exhaustion was it? Heavy limbed or heaving lungs? Lungs recover just like that and are soon ready to go again, tired legs need more time but with a proper warm up etc that needn´t be a problem, it´s knocks and niggles that really take their toll. I don´t think football is that physically tiring a game, not on good pitches, in many games most players come off fresh as a daisy. Aspin doesn´t appear to be too concerned as some good players remain on the bench tonight.

It was heavy limbs and they tired the more the game went on. You run around after the ball like they did with 9 men for most of the game on a very hot day and that has to have an affect on part-time players with just over 48 hours before the next game. Not saying they are a gimmie and the price on Wrexham has become short enough based on how they performed on Saturday, but I took a bigger price just after Sunday's game.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug I think you might hear me scream from 6,000 miles away if this ends up as three outright wins by the dogs rather than draws...c'mon FGR!

[Aidymac]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

I don't know an awful lot about the Conference if I am honest but I want to get involved with ye guys throughout the season. I understand fully why ye have Wrexham backed, they should win, but at around 2.00 I said I would leave it be. My reasoning for backing Southport is simple really, they beat Luton last time out and Luton are one of the main favourites for the league. On the other hand, Hyde lost 8-0 at Forest Green, albeit they went down to 10 men early. However, playing with 10 men for such a long period of time should have really tired the players out. Just looking through Hyde's home form in the Conference, they have lost 7 of their last 10 at home and Southport won this fixture 2-0 last year. Now, I am not sure myself on how much the teams have strengthened over the summer, but I am more than happy to get involved at 2.5 as I am sure an 8-0 drubbing will leave Hyde's morale quite low. Southport v Hyde - Southport to WIN - 5 Points @ 2.5 Betfair

Never in doubt :lol Oh my fcukin heart, not good for the heart this... would be fair to say fatigue cost Hyde there? +7.12 Points after commission

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

Never in doubt :lol Oh my fcukin heart, not good for the heart this... would be fair to say fatigue cost Hyde there? +7.12 Points after commission

Not sure as Hyde hit the bar twice apparently. Horrid night for the rest of us on here with some really crazy results.

[Aidymac]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

Not sure as Hyde hit the bar twice apparently. Horrid night for the rest of us on here with some really crazy results.

I didn't see it mate, was following it on Bet365. A very very lucky win, 94th minute winner. Very early in the season mate so we will see plenty of strange results.

[allthethings]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

Three home dogs today is very unusual...even one is unusual early in a season, as it normally takes a number of weeks (months, even) before odds rise to such an extent that good teams are favored for the outright win on away. Beginning my sixth season of keeping track of all favorites of under 1.99, home dogs of up to 4.99 are 3-4-4 (27% wins, 36% draws) in the first six weeks of Conference play. That breaks down to 3-1-1 on weekends, 0-3-3 on midweek games. That's a very small sample, but it gibes with the overall home-dog figures for those five-plus seasons: 47-52-77 (27% wins, 29% draws). Nighttime midweek games have drawn more often than daytime weekend games during that period, and home dogs in midweek games do also: 32%. Statistically speaking, you can expect one of the three dogs to get a draw today: Nuneaton, Halifax, Alfreton. My personal experience is that the one you least expect is the one that surprises you in the end, and vice versa. I'll be on all three, of course. At the moment Halifax is, strangely, the worst odds (3.7), and Nuneaton the best (3.9). I'll wait until an hour before the games, as the odds usually rise and rise during the day and then the value bettors drive the price back down.

+0.9 unit Home dogs won two outright (Halifax and Alfreton), drew once (Nuneaton).

[Darran]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug

I didn't see it mate, was following it on Bet365. A very very lucky win, 94th minute winner. Very early in the season mate so we will see plenty of strange results.

Should have made clear that info was from Twitter.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Midweek > Skrill Prem 13-14 Aug No joy with the Birchall trade but another massive result for Aldershot - I'm backing them to go down but you have to say a magnificent effort thus far. Crazy night all round and I was - more by luck than judgement - fortunate to be out of the markets in anything but a token way.