YorkshireFootyFan

I have just done a sample match of a similar project with some rugby following friends, and the sample went very well. It didn't really turn up any bets for the crowd but the prices were very close to the odds offered by the bookmakers. As you would expect the individual prices I also supplied to the contributors identified some bets for the outliers. I do have a track record of successful modelling, and the above requirements from yourselves are not that great. Is no one interested?

Hello, I wonder if anyone would be interested in helping me conduct an experiment. I want to apply some Wisdom Of The Crowd thinking to a football model. For more information on WOTC read here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd . I would be asking participants to predict how they expect teams to perform (perform and not results) against their own standard level. So if we used a scale of 0-10, you might predict say for Manchester City at home to Burnley, you might anticipate Man City playing at an 8 and Burnley at a 3, I would then apply this to my model to generate, expected goals whiich would then be simulated through a random match model to generate odds. I would send you your match odds, and I would publish for all participants to see the collective data/odds. I might run a short pilot on this during the summer for the MLS or a Scandinavian league to see how it goes and to fine tune it for the start of the UK season. Is anyone interested in helping.

I belatedly read the forum rules, and this thread won't meet the requirements of posting so please delete. My apologies for the mispost.

The general principle is you bet when the bookies prices exceed the model's prices.

I have a football model that calculates win prices and over and under prices. I will post the output up here, if anyone wants to use it be my guest. There are several inputs that can be tweaked depending on various things, if you would like to know more or to help with the inputs, leave me a message here and i'll get back to you. This week only the National League is available, League One and Two will be online next week, followed closely by the Championship, with the Premier League lagging behind. I will identify no bets and make no claims. I assume that is okay. I won't disclose how the model works but will happily discuss anything else. punterslounge.xlsx

Sotdoc are your sample sizes large enough to draw conclusions from?

Re: Mid week Non-League 24th-25th November I'm back after a break for personal reasons. Three appeal to me on the numbers, Dartford win 2.8, Dover draw 4.0, Woking win 3.6.

Re: Vanarama Conference 7th/8th October Nothing from me in the near future, I'm snowed under with other stuff at the moment and football betting is taking a back seat..

Re: Vanarama Conference September 30th Over / Under 2.5 These are prices at which I would bet. [TABLE=width: 117] [TR] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD]Ov[/TD] [TD]Un[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Alfreton[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.97[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Altrincham[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.01[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.91[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Braintree[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.11[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.68[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dover[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.68[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.51[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Eastleigh[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.18[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.62 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Forest Green[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.11[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Grimsby[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.92[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lincoln[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.70[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Telford[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.56[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.07[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Welling[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.97[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.99[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Woking[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.11[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.73[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wrexham[/TD] [TD=align: right]8.08[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.40[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]Over[/TD] [TD]Under[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Braintree Under 1.91 Skybet Dover Under 1.75 Betway Lincoln Under 1.91 various Telford Over 1.75 Bwin Wrexham Under 1.8 Ladbrokes

Re: Vanarama Conference September 30th [TABLE=width: 331] [TR] [TD]Alfreton[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.01[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.87[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.42[/TD] [TD]Halifax[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Altrincham[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.24[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.86[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.29[/TD] [TD]Macclesfield[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Braintree[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.15[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.01[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.79[/TD] [TD]Barnet[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dover[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.27[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.83[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.37[/TD] [TD]Aldershot[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Eastleigh[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.05[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.84[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.90[/TD] [TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Forest Green[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.07[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.76[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.42[/TD] [TD]Torquay[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Grimsby[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.65[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.93[/TD] [TD=align: right]6.95[/TD] [TD]Southport[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lincoln[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.25[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.10[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.65[/TD] [TD]Gateshead[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Telford[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.53[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.32[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.66[/TD] [TD]Chester[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Welling[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.91[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.57[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.98[/TD] [TD]Dartford[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Woking[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.66[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.33[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.83[/TD] [TD]Nuneaton[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wrexham[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.65[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.60[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.03[/TD] [TD]Kidderminster[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Short list Alfreton at 4.0 or better. Macclesfield at 2.8 or better Both of those are just currently available. Eastleigh at 2.45 or better , 2.8 available. Wrexham v Kiddy Draw at 3.25 or better 3.4 available. A draw nominated as value is a rarity to date. I'll run some totals figures and recommendations shortly.

Re: Vanarama Conference 27th September [TABLE=width: 331] [TR] [TD]Telford[/TD] [TD=align: right]7.35[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.11[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.49[/TD] [TD]Torquay[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Altrincham[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.92[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.01[/TD] [TD]Welling[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Braintree[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.15[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.13[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.50[/TD] [TD]Halifax[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dover[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.30[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.42[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.43[/TD] [TD]Alfreton[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Forest Green[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.15[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.42[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.52[/TD] [TD]Barnet[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gateshead[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.32[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.28[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.69[/TD] [TD]Aldershot[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Grimsby[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.28[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.49[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.56[/TD] [TD]Chester[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lincoln[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.39[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.78[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.10[/TD] [TD]Macclesfield[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nuneaton[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.11[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.44[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.14[/TD] [TD]Dartford[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Southport[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.61[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.52[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.96[/TD] [TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Woking[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.27[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.81[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.68[/TD] [TD]Kidderminster[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wrexham[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.34[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.67[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.27[/TD] [TD]Eastleigh[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Shortlist Altrincham 2.38 or better (2.4 taken with Pinny) Braintree 2.6 or better (2.86 taken with Pinny) Alfreton 3.02 or better (3.32 taken with Pinny) Chester at 4.98 or better (7.67 taken with Pinny) Southport at 3.29 or better (4.44 taken with Pinny)

Re: Vanarama Conference South/North 20th September Halifax price has moved no longer a bet. Didn't get mine on.

Re: Vanarama Conference South/North 20th September I'm going with all of my shortlist as win singles.

Re: Vanarama Conference 20th/22nd September I'm taking all of my selections above in Singles, except Halifax who i will take at best -1 asian odds.