Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog]

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Kanepi loses but Bartoli wins. Bank now 124.92

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Tomorrow's bet is at Wimbledon. 1.92pts Del Potro to win first set AND lose the match 5.50 Bet365 Ferrer is a real fighter and moves around the court very well. He has lost a few sets to lesser opponents though. He lost a set to Alund and then Bautista-Agut and if Dolgopolov was a better played at 2-1 up then he would of also done. I see this game very similar to the Dodig game for Ferrer. He is up against a big server and I think Del Potro, fresh will win the first set purely because of his serve. However, Ferrer for me is a better all-rounder than Del Potro and although Del Potro has looked the most impressive of the two, I think Ferrer will grind this one out too.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 3pts J.Jankovic/L.Baroni to beat S.Hseih/S.Peng 1.83 Bet365 I think Jankovic/Baroni will be the pairing to move forward here. This year they have been fairly successful on the clay winning 6 and losing 4 and since moving to the grass for Wimbledon they have looked quite impressive. Early rounds they beat Chan/Garrigues in 3 sets and then Flipkens/Rybarikova but most impressive was the last round (perhaps since both are out of Wimbledon singles now?) where they beat Makarova/Vesnina 6-3 6-2. That's a hell of a feat, beating a pairing that they lost against only a week previous in straight sets. In my opinion Hseih/Peng haven't beaten anyone of any substance yet. Firstly Dushevina/Pano and then Gacon/Hrdinova and finally in the last round Jurak/Tanasugarn and none of these players are anything special for me. Especially on the grass. They will need to improve to match Janko/Baroni that's for sure. They served pretty rubbish in their last game and they faced 8 break points, and got broke 4 times. Players like Jankovic and Baroni will surely take advantage of this. We shall see.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 2pts J.Vesely to beat J.L.Struff 2-0 2.50 Bet365 Again going with Vesely here. On clay he is having a fantastic season and managed to take a set from Kohlschreiber and beat reason event winner Felicano Lopez and I think he will have to much for Struff, who is more suited to the fast courts.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Crap day yesterday takes the bank to 118.00 pts

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Tonights bets on the darts 5.5pts R.Thornton -1.5 to beat B.Dolan 1.72 Bet365 Thornton has really improved as a player since the Premier league. Nobody really gave him a chance in that but he proved many wrong. Beating Hamilton, Anderson , Whitlock and getting a 6-6 vs Van Gerwen and Barney in the early rounds. He finished that 5th just 2 pts off the semi-final spot. These two have played 5 times and Thornton leads 3-2 but recently played twice in the champions league event. Both games were won by Thornton 6-4. I expect a similar result or better here. 4pts R.Huybechts to beat S.Kellett 2.37 Bet365 Going for the value bet here. I don't think that you could say Huybrechts is reflected with the odds as they haven't played before that I can see and neither look like they are going to produce anything special in this tournament. Huybrechts has the slightly higher average and has the more TV experience so I'll go with the value. 3pts C.Lloyd to beat P.Wright 2.75 Bet365 Again, a nice value bet here for a player who has a better head-2-head then Wright. These two have played 14 times. Lloyd has won 9 of those 14. Peter Wright has won the last 2 but both of those matches have been close [both ended 6-5] and Lloyd led 5-3 in one of those throwing for 6-3. Wright may score heavier but the question are if he can hit the doubles.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Wish I'd put my tennis bets in here too, as I got both of the semi-final matches scores spot-on and was going to add-in the 10/1 double (in the Wimbledon thread) typical! :( Anyway, 3/3 here too so can't complain. Huybrechts beat Kellett 6-3. Colin Lloyd went 3-2 up on the break and managed to hold his nerve for once, to win 6-4. He had alot of pressure from Wright and could of easily lost that 6-5. He took out 116 to win that last leg. Finally, Robert Thornton beat Brendan Dolan despite looking in some serious pain, 6-2 to cover the handicap and complete a rather satisfactory 5 out of 5 across the board. bank now 132.69 pts

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 3pts A.Hamilton [-1.5 games] to beat T.Jenkins 2.00 Bet365 I think Andy will win this 6-3/6-4. He has a good record against Terry and Andy enjoys the TV now. They have played 19 times, Andy has won 12 of those. Last year they played 3 times. Andy won twice and Terry won once, in the final of the UK Open Qualifier. Andy can tighten up alittle in finals/semi-final situations but in the early stages of a tournament he tends to be relaxed and I think he will come here and just play his game.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 1.69pts J.vesely to beat F.Krajinovic 2-1 4.00 Bet365 Just going to have a little gamble on this. Vesely is the up and coming star of the clay for me. He has won around 90% of the clay matches he has played this year and has won 7 out of his last 8. However, his mind wanders and so many times I've seen 6-2 / 2-6 / 6-2 or something equally as silly. In the 7 of the matches he has won this year, 4 have been 2-1. Added to that Krajinovic beat him on the clay just last year and this is a semi-final. I do see Vesely winning but 3/1 on 2-1 seems a nice bit of value.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 1pt L.Donald to win the Paris Open 21.00 Bet365 another gamble on the Golf. Donald did really well in the first round. He was actually -3 before the last hole and things went wrong and he lost 3 shots on that last hole. If he comes into round 2 with a clear mind he could easily shoot a -3 to join the top 5 and I think he can go on from there. 20/1 seems a lovely price to throw a point at.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] bank 131pts as Vesely wins 2-0. Other guy had a break up in 2nd set too. Typical.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 3pts J.Klaasen to beat J.Pipe 2.00 Bet365 Pipe was flying at the start of his first round match but at 5-1 he really stuttered and allowed his opponent back in. I think the way Klaasen played in round 1 he wont have the to do that. Klaasen looked very good and was taking out big numbers and if he can do that again he should win this comfortably. Darts : 3pts J.Wade [-2.5 games] to beat J.Cavern 2.00 Bet365 I think Cavern had one of the best first round 1's of the tournament but I think Wade will shine through here. He looked calm and stead in his match and I think he should win with legs to spare here. They played last month and Wade won 9-7. 2pts K.Painter to beat A.Lewis 2.75 Lewis looked his normal panicking style in round 1. He could of easily lost that match when he had one dart at D20 or go 4-1 down and it was covered. If Painter can score heavy and double well he can win here in my opinion and I think he is in the better of forms too. and in the tennis : 2pts M.Bartoli to win 2-1 6.00 >Bet365 1pt S.Lisicki to win the first set AND lose match 9.00 >Bet365 I fancy Bartoli here. The whole world will be on Lisicki she is easily more likeable but I really think Bartoli brings experience and guile and although Lisicki is a fighter, Bartoli is a warrior and if she can return the serves like she has been doing I think she will do better on the ground strokes. 2-1 either way for me but I'll go with the value.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 3pts Sri Lanka to beat West Indies 2.00 Bet365 I'm going for Sri Lanka here. West Indies had a great start to this tournament but looked very average in the last match Vs India. Gayle did nothing and I honestly think Charles & Bravo are the ones they will rely on. Sri Lanka to me looked impressive against India and Tharanga/Jayawardene partnership of 281 was something else.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Will update bank after this one. Quick one for Tennis Hsun-Lu -5.5 to beat Xin-Gong 1.80 Bet365 [2.5pts]

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] I'm waiting on Hsun-Lu to play his match tomorrow but quick update of the bank before tomorrows bets. Hamilton was rubbish but beat Jenkins still 6-5 so it didn't cover the -1.5 handicap. Donald was nowhere in the Paris Open. Klaasen beat Pipe. Wade lost to Cavern, Bartoli won 2-0. Bloody typical! and finally Sri Lanka beat India so bank now stands at 125pts

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 3pts S.Stakhovsky to beat J.L.Struff 2.00 >Bet365 Struff, ranked 109th and this his favourite surface, however I don't see him winning here. He has gone out to some pretty average players this year on the clay and I think Stakhovsky's win against Federer on the grass would of done something for his confidence. If he brings that big serve here I think Struff is going to find it hard to break. He will also need to serve well himself and currently this year he has just a 53% first serve on the clay.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 3pts V.Troicki to beat J.Souza 2-0 1.80 Bet365 I was expecting this to be around 1.57/1.66 so definite value for me. Troicki has been in some good form doing well in the French Open and also Wimbledon. He is easily good enough to dispatch Souza with little fuss.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Jesus Stakhovsky, absolute pants! Troicki wins 2-0 though. Bank now 124.40pts

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 3pts I.Karlovic to beat R.Vasselin 3.00 Bet365 1pt I.Karlovic to win 2-0 5.00 Bet365 Karlovic will really be up for this. He tried to get into Wimbledon but they would not give him entry into it after he has had an injury and all he will want to do is start in winning ways. Vasselin is on some poor grass form and Karlovic's big serve I'm going to side with the 6ft 10 guy over the 6ft 2.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] karlo wins 2-0. Bank now 134.40pts

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 3pts Ashes Series - Ground with Most runs [Trent Bridge 5.00 Bet365] Rumours of a dry, flat wicket and lots of sunshine should mean alot of runs. We have seen plenty of centuries here in county cricket and it wouldn't surprise me with the pure adrenaline and perhaps alittle nervousness in the field if we see the most runs here.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 2.5pts T.Robredo to beat A.Ramos 2-0 1.80 >Bet365 Both prefer the clay but Robredo is a much stronger player. The head-2-head reads 1-0 to Robredo, on clay, where he won in straight sets in 2011. He got to the QF of the French Open where he beat some top players such as Monfils, Sijsling & Almagro. Where as Ramos's recent work on the clay is going out to lowly ranked players.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Series bets : 5pts England to win 1st test AND series 2.00 Bet365 I fancy England in the first test and for me it's a shoe-in that they will win the series so the evens price seems decent. England with Cook, Root, Pieterson, Trott and Bell are very strong at the bat and also have the likes of Prior who can also bat well. They also have a better bowling attack too with Anderson, Finn & Swann and for me they should win this comfortably. 2pts M.Starc (top Australian bowler) 4.00 Bet365 Tends to do well against England. Has taken 4 wickets in the last 2 matches against England he has played. He always gives Cook problems and even Cook admits that. Any quick left-arm's are going to cause him problems, it's a weakness for him. If others follow suit we could have a few problems. 1st test preview : 3pts J.Anderson (top England bowler) 3.00 Bet365 Although the ground will be very dry, I don't think Swann is going to find too much spin out there. In-fact look at his quote ""I know Trent Bridge like the back of my hand and it doesn't spin here," he said. "It could be dry for four months before you get here and it wouldn't really be a turning pitch." It would lead me to think the only other bowler who will get alot of wickets here is Jimmy and I'm going to take the 2/1 available here.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Robredo was awful but Lu finally played his match and won the handicap so : 133.90pts Waiting on Anderson today for top English bowler in the first innings too. Currently 2 each, with Finn.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] ATP Stuttgart : 3pts B.Paire to beat N.Davydenko 1.80 >Bet365 1pt B.Paire to win 2-0 3.00 >Bet365 I'm glad the odds have drifted on Paire. On the clay paire has beat Monaco and Del Potro this year and looks very consistent now he has broken through and got in the world top 30. Davydenko didn't look too hot against De La Nava, a player he should of beaten easily and scraped through in 3 sets. I think some definite value on the 2-0 also.

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] With Anderson now on 6 wickets that bets won. Still waiting on the other series bets ofcourse : bank now 139.90pts

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Paire wins 2-0. I can't believe that Davydenko started as favourite for that match. Yesterday night it was rightly priced up at 1.66 for Paire and before the match started it went out to Evens, for Paire to win so I had to bet abit more. Too much value there and on hindsight I wish Id went more on the 2-0 too. Paire looking very good and it will be a potentially exciting game between him and Monfils in the semi-finals. bank now 144.30pts

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 1.30pts J.Trott Top England 2nd innings batsman 5.00 Bet365 Will take this before the 2nd innings starts after lunch. 4/1 seems a decent price for this as Trott was one of the few who actually showed some decent composure under pressure. I rate him highly and was going to have him top english batsman before the tournament but didn't. I can only see this being under pressure from maybe Pieterson or Root as Cook struggles against Australia.

[anaconda69]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Excellent thread how long you anticipate staying here? I love tennis at the moment your betting on the sport more on tennis and cricket so with bit of insight there is lots of value bets ;)

[Fader]

Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Hey there, thanks alot. I'm not quite sure really. I bet most on Tennis at the moment but it will probably spill into the football season too. I will probably take it to a double-up and then assess the situation :)