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Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog]


Fader

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Hi guys, Hope you don't mind me using this thread as a mini-blog for my bets. I want somewhere to keep my numbers correct and if I put it here, I know I'll update it everytime. It may also bring me some good luck, fingers crossed. Basically going to be 1-2 bets a day on all kinds of sports. I'll add reasoning 90% of the time and will only defer from that when I am in a rush. Hopefully this is OK :ok will start with a bank of 100 points. Staking will range from 1-10. Majority will be lowly stakes of around 1-3pts. Bet 1 : 19/06/13 - Cricket England V South Africa - England 1.90 Bet365 5.5pts The first of the two semi-finals takes place tomorrow and I'm going to side with England. They have played well throughout really and was quite unlucky to lose their only match against Sri Lanka in my opinion. England have quality throughout. They have an excellent opener in Cook, a player who can build, in Trott and up and coming batters who are keen such as Root. They also boast a pretty fine bowling attack too in Anderson, Swann & Broad and I think it will be enough here to take the game and book a place in the finals.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Good start with a win :105pts Bet 2 : 19/06/13 - Football (Brazil/Italy double) - 2.45 PaddyPower 3pts Second bet will be a little double for tonight. Brazil, as hosts should easily beat Mexico. Since drawing against England, Brazil have won 3-0 twice in a row so we will add that selection on to Italy, who I think represents some value also. Italy know they really need to win as they still have to play Brazil. Japan are in decent form, but for me they don't have enough in their team to beat Italy.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 2/2 and I wouldn't of minded losing that Italy bet really. Best match I've seen since our (west ham's) FA Cup final Vs Liverpool in '06 Bank 109.35 Bet 3 : 20/06/13 - Tennis (F.Fognini to beat I.Dodig) 2.75 3pts Bet365 Head to head is 1 to 1 but Fog won this tie most recently and I'm abit surprised really on the odds. I think it may be because Dodig beat Raonic, but that's no hard task nowadays and he wasn't THAT impressive previous to that game either. Fognini isn't pulling up any trees but he has been consistent, even when he goes behind in matches, he pulls himself together. Bet 4 : 20/06/13 - Cricket (India top opening partnership) v Sri Lanka 5pts 1.80 Bwin This seems a good price to me. I think India's top 2 are far far more destructive then Sri Lanka. Game 1 Sri Lanka (20 combined) Game 2 (50 combined) and finally (38 combined) .. Perera's three scores so far? 0, 6 & 4. India's Dhawan alone has hit 114, 102 & 48 so I'm alittle mythed by the price.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 3/3 after Perera (as predicted) manages to score "4" to make his combined 4 innings score of "14" ... impressive. 3/4 boooo!! first loser. Bank now 110.35 Bet 5 : 20/06/13 - Football (Uruguary to beat Nigeria 5.35pts 1.80 Paddypower The stronger side I feel and with Suarez up for this I don't think Nigeria will cope with the attacking play. Uruguay need to win really to end with 6pts (with tahiti win) so will want to get a result here.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] 4/5 good win for Uruguay after looking abit rubbish in first half. Bank 114.63 Bet 6 : 21/06/13 - Tennis - (J.Hampton to beat C. Wozniacki) 3.63pts 2.50 bwin Hampton is in some sparkling form right now. She is a real battler. She has beat A.Radwansa already and yesterday beat Safarova after being a set and a break down and with Safarova serving for the game. She goes into this one with never playing Wozniacki before, but Wozniacki previous to this event had lost 6 of her last 7 games. The form is definitely on Hampton's side.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Bet 7 : 22/06/13 - Football - (Brazil V Italy) Both teams to score (Yes) 3.27pts 1.80 Bet365 Bet 8 : 22/06/13 - Football- (Japan V Mexico) Japan 2.5pts 2.50 Bet365 It wouldn't surprise me if Italy won this one, but one thing I would expect is both teams to score. Italy scored 3 against Japan and Japan were so unlucky not to get something there. Brazil scored 2 in there last game and 6 in the previous 2 games so Id expect goals. Brazil already through practically. Japan looked good against Brazil and Id expect them to beat Mexico, who haven't shown me much.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Bet 9 : 23/06/13 - Football- Confederation Cup - D.Forlan *top goalscorer* 1pt 13.00 BetVictor Bet 10 : 23/06/13 - Football- (Uruguay V Tahiti) L.Suarez to score 3 or more goals 3.19pts 2.62 Paddypower Today's bets will be on tonight's game between Uruguay and Tahiti. Tahiti, when coming here had a main aim to score a goal and did that in their first game Vs Nigeria. Their first game was always going to be the hardest working game and it must demoralize you somewhat being smashed 6-1 and 10-0. Uruguay didn't look too special with their 2-1 win Vs Nigeria either but I think their front pairing will cause more damage then Spain's from a goal-scoring perspective. Cavani is on a yellow card so he may not be risked in this game. This would lean me toward Suarez or Forlan really going on a score-fest and getting 3/4 goals. So I'm taking Suarez to score a hat-trick and also sticking a point on Forlan being top-scorer of the Confederation cup as I don't really understand how the odds have been complied. Suarez and Forlan both have 1 goal. Both have similar odds in the *Hat-Trick* market yet one is 4/1 to be top-goalscorer of the competition and the other 12/1. Forlan has a better record at international level and it would only take a night of 4 goals or more for him to take the lead from Torres.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog]

The starting line up.messed these bets up im hoping Suarez doesn't play at all tonight now as had two goals and hattrick im raging at myself for thinking they'd play him from start :/
Me too mate. I took Abel Hernandez so I'm hoping he leaves Suarez on the bench so that the bet is a void. Forlan bet is a loss now. Not good.
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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog]

The starting line up.messed these bets up im hoping Suarez doesn't play at all tonight now as had two goals and hattrick im raging at myself for thinking they'd play him from start :/
Are goalscorer bets void if the player doesn't play at all then?
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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog]

Yeah' date=' normally they are mate.[/quote'] :cigar Cheers - I backed Suarez and Forlan hat-tricks - so hoping they don't come on now ... if I'd been really on the ball I'd have waited until the line-ups were announced then bunged some more on Hernandez.
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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Loss on Suarez thanks to squad rotation. I don't see the point in bringing him on when you're down to 10-men and you have lost a defender but nevertheless,he still nearly did it. bank now 117.00. Bet 11 - Tennis Wimbledon - A.Falla to beat S.Robert 2.20 Bet365 - 3pts This price seems abit odd to me. Robert is 35 and has never got passed round 1 of Wimbledon. He won some qualifying rounds for this tournament, but he hardly set the world alight. He only just beat a player ranked 239th. Falla is a better player and even though grass may not be his preference he still beat Isner and Mahut last year at Wimbledon. Falla for me.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Bet 12 - Tennis Wimbledon - K.Anderson -6.5 Vs O.Rochus 5.5pts 1.90 Bet365 Will go with this one. Anderson's serve should limit Rochus to breaking so Id guess this one will end 3-0 to Anderson. It's unlikely all of these sets will go the full distance so if Anderson can win one of the sets with confidence this should be covered. Anderson is a top 25 player where as Rochus is a top 150 player. Last time these 2 played Anderson won comfortably 6-2 / 6-4 so hopefully get back on winning ways with this one.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Bet 13 - Tennis Wimbledon - Kirilenko -3.5 to beat L.Robson 3.95pts 2.00 Bet365 Just like the Keys/Watson game, the british girl is overpriced. Kirilenko is a top 10 player and she should beat an out of form Robson in straight sets here.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] Fader - do you in any way follow the 'one bet a day' pattern yourself in real life, or is it just for this thread? I'm asking because I think it could be a simple way of maintaining 'discipline'.

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Re: Bet of the day thread [Fader's blog] ha ha MP this is why I'm doing it mate. No, I don't and discipline is what I'm trying to teach myself. I know that if I followed it id make big profit but as you can see above I really let myself down once I pick my main bets. Today I only had 2 in mind. the handicap for Haas and the handicap for Anderson. I tipped one only to keep progressing in the bank and then I start getting greedy.

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