Betting without emotion

[mowgli77]

Saw this article today on Twitter and thought it was quite interesting. I can relate to plenty of it and know that when I have been chasing losses or playing up winnings before it has been due to the emotions of betting. I know some bet to level stakes and I guess that can take some emotion out of betting whereas some (including myself) will bet dependant on levels of confidence or perceived value. You can feel elated and on top of the world when you win and devastated and gutted when you lose, more so if you have a big bet or bigger than normal bet on a horse. You can go from one to the other in seconds as punters will have done tonight if they backed Petrol at Ripon. I can also identify with the emotion being linked to a release in the brain such as what you get with drugs, alcohol, tobacco. You win money, you get a rush, you want to feel that rush again so you bet more money and try to win again. This is more so on machines than horses as far as I'm concerned because it's a quick hit. It's easier to create rules for racing and be disciplined than it is for people playing casino/slot type machines. Interested to read others thoughts on it. :ok http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/emotional-betting

[The Saint]

Re: Betting without emotion Thanks Mowgli - cracking subject to get stuck into. Apologies for not contributing towards it as yet - just not finding the time.... Most definatly will do though :ok

[erhaab1965]

Re: Betting without emotion Very interesting. I had an above average sized bet on Petrol the other night, my only bet since the Derby. Just seen the replay on RP having been down in recent days. I emotionally follow the horse and conversely had a bet thinking the conditions were right. I would have not bothered with the horse or race otherwise. This is a losing trait I have following horses trained by lower profile trainers especially when they have a few runs unplaced at big odds. I try to guess or work out when they'll release the handbrake.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Betting without emotion I have veered away from betting on the jockey and trainers championships. I highly rate multiple Gr1 winning jockey R Moore, but whenever I back him for the title I end up focusing on his rides and from time to time back his mounts in the hope he'll get another one when the form tells me not to back it. Conversely last season R Hughes made an effort to win the championship by taking up all available spare rides and putting more effort in his rides. Not being a fan of his I'd have a few selections against his ride in the hope that someone else wins. I've not had a bet on the championship this year and it has allowed me to avoid the "spite" bets.

[mowgli77]

Re: Betting without emotion It would be interesting to see how many people are just interested in the gambling aspect of the sport and how many class themselves as fans of horseracing. I am first and foremost a fan of horseracing but gambling is a huge part of the sport. I can watch races without financial investment and still enjoy them but being a horse racing fan means I will have my favourites and you can often back one of your favourite horses due to the emotion of wanting it to win rather than from the gambling perspective where the odds look to offer value. I like to have a list of horses that I feel are progressive, wel handicapped or that will pay their way over a season and look genuine. I used to back them all, whatever the price but now I sum up the whole race before deciding whether to part with my cash. It's also clear from recent threads that people would rather back a Derby winner than a winner in a class 5 race at Wolverhampton even if they are the same price. I've seen people go nuts on Grand National day and once went to that meeting with a bloke that backed 9 horses in the race and didn't even return a place. :\ It certainly hurts more when you've put a lot of money on than when you have a smaller bet but keeping your head and not chasing those losses is so important. There is definitely a chemical reaction when you win that makes you feel good, trying to control that natural reaction is the challenge punters face. Years ago I've gone in the bookies for the one race I'm interested in, won on that race then spunked the lot by staying in there and betting on races I had no interest in, chasing another win rather than chasing any losses. Recording results is a must because you keep a track of profit/loss and can't fool yourself or ignore any losers. It also points to where you are successful and should lead you to avoiding the races where you lose money. I'll cheer a horse home like the next man but then keep my feet on the ground for the next race.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Betting without emotion Many years ago I followed a horse called Samwar, I put it my notebook ( pre mobile phone / handheld computer days ) I think it had an OR in the 90s, anyway I had it down as a winner waiting to happen, I looked for its name in every edition of the Weekender and plotted a mini coup each time it was entered. I ended up backing the horse dozens of times over 3 or 4 seasons, it changed trainers a few times too. In the end I gave up, it eventually be wins on an AW track trained by Norma McCaulley off a rating in the 50s at 6/4. I've never followed a horse religiously since.

[corky]

Re: Betting without emotion when i first started betting,an older gent gave me some advice,bet for the sport not for the money,and looking back it was the best advice ever,wish i had followed it,but the money is more important now,and it has been over the years,if i can elaborate on this, i only bet on races i can watch,and due to the coverage we are fortunate to see that can be in double figures,where as when racing was freqently on the box i was lucky to have double figure bets in 3 months,and if im honest i studied more in depth,was more disciplined,saw more live races and was generally more luckier,where now i only bet on 2 days a week,my days off,and now limit myself to set days,which when thought out logically is complete nonsense to restrict betting to set days

[MPLouis]

Re: Betting without emotion

when i first started betting' date='an older gent gave me some advice,bet for the sport not for the money,and looking back it was the best advice ever[/quote'] I bet on football, not horses but I can relate to that. I think I've read something like 'play the game, not the money' - I think it was about poker.

[mowgli77]

Re: Betting without emotion I do believe people can bet without emotion (attachment) because I've seen Slapdash's threads, he's a mathematician/statistician rather than a horse racing fan I think and people who use systems can let their system select a horse, back it and have no real interest in the sport. It's not always easy for me (with horses) but that's because I'm a fan of horseracing and also like to bet on it. I can look at a race though, knowing very little about a horse and make a secltion based on the info available rather than an emotional attachment but I guess we are talking more about the emotional response in your brain that often leads to addiction, whether it be gambling, alcohol, tobacco, drugs because we are built with a rewards system and that makes sense to what Rio says in another thread about not being human because it is a programmed response, operant conditioning. If I had a system for cricket for example I could back that without emotion because I bloody hate the sport, bores me to tears and I'd back a selection based on stats only, sometimes do this with footy bets too based on stats alone, especially for non league teams, more so with home teams having a strong record. I think it is the ability to control the response we should be discussing. I've seen an ex colleague that couldn't control his responses, lost his mrs and his house and was 24k in debt from gambling but had a mugs mentality, would put £140 in a fruit machine and need the jackpot to break even. It's a shame this thread hasn't had more input because the psychology around gambling is huge. There is a drug prescribed in America that is used to block receptors for when dopamine is released to stop the reward system, similar to how Naltrexone works for opiod receptors. They are trying to get GP's here to prescribe it for reducing alcohol use. I've had a meeting with their rep today. The chemical name is Nalmefene (http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-04/e-ant041113.php) and the name used here is Selincro. He mentioned prescribing in USA for gambling and it has been passed for EU in March here for alcohol use but it's £42.42 for 14 tablets. :loon

[StuSimmy]

Re: Betting without emotion I love horse racing as a sport and like yourself mowgli, I could sit down and watch a race without financial investment for several reasons, one of those being to see if any horses would go into my notebook and just the sheer fact that I enjoy the sport, just like football and NFL. I don't religously follow any horse/jockey/stable and although I have a big love for Mark Johnston, it would be virtually impossible for me to back every runner of his, especially if I was to try and make a profit out of it. Although I do have to say, there is nothing more than annoying than backing a horse then missing it next time out, whether that's through picking another horse or just noticing it's not run. Then again it works both ways I guess, if it runs 3-4 times since without a win then you've escaped. I don't bet anything I can't afford basically and will always stick to that. There has been times where I have bet more than I should have but it's always been cash available to me with no strings attached to it, as in all my bills have been paid. I would never get myself into debt through betting and I certainly am a lot more disciplined now that I used to be. I can now look at a race and even if I spend 20-30 minutes on it and still don't come to a conclusion, I can walk away from the race without backing for the sake of it or because I've spent so much time on it whereas before I would keep studying until I come to a conclusion. Again sometimes it paid off and sometimes it didn't. I don't back to level stakes either, I go based on confidence but I have come to realise I have become more of a "careful" gambler so to speak if that makes sense whereby I back a lot, probably a majority of my selections each way now rather than on the nose and I have found that this works for me.

[IrishInKentucky]

Re: Betting without emotion

He mentioned prescribing in USA for gambling and it has been passed for EU in March here for alcohol use but it's £42.42 for 14 tablets. :loon

You would need to back a fair few winners each week to be able to afford that drug to stop you gambling then:cigar

[Kithanga]

Re: Betting without emotion I think I do need to bet with emotion, just not negative emotion. That's the one I try to keep in check. I bet because I like the challenge and enjoy trying to solve the puzzle. Just like doing a prize crossword may be a challenge for others. Once the negative emotions kick in to be honest it would be best to give it up for a while. After all, I bet for enjoyment, the challenge of beating the book, not to being more stress into my life. So for me, it has to be an emotional ride and if it turns a small profit, great. If it turns a small loss, great as long as I've enjoyed it. Not enjoying it, or turning a heavy loss means I'd pack in and find another hobby.

[The Saint]

Re: Betting without emotion I’ve read so much on this subject I could probably write a book. If you hold aspiration to make a living from betting or at least making a profit from it then imho, understanding and conquering emotion is absolutely key to achieving this. I’m lucky in the respect I have built up a substantial bank over the years and back in the day made a very decent living from the game. It’s been a lot harder in the last year primarily due to Bookmakers being so quick to close accounts. I also feel that ‘form’ is not as important now because Trainers/Owners are struggling to make ends meet and therefore there is more shrewd placing of horses resulting in lower hcap marks before a winning opportunity presents itself. I have never and will never be a fan of second guessing when this might be. I don’t go ‘on tilt’ in the respect that my stakes increase and I bet to a level stake as far as backing and laying go. I hate losing but as any winning backer will tell you – you will have a lot more losing days than winning ones. I only increase my bet size when the betting bank increases sufficiently to justify it but it’s important that the bet size is still in your own personal ‘comfort zone’. If I’m about to back Horse A to my normal stake and then you ask me to treble it, I’d possibly start to doubt myself and the horse in question which could lead to irrational thinking and undue stress. Both aren’t going to help in making rational decisions. Through reading various articles I found the following really useful. I’d recommend anyone that is taking their punting seriously to do the same – even if it’s not in public - although you'll probably get more help and be more honest if it is. Give yourself a mark out of 10 with regards to the following categories to see where you can improve and identify weaknesses with regards to the emotional side of the game. Discipline – 8. Never go on tilt – not even close. Have, on occasion, not bet when I should have. Judgement – 6. Better than ever in Group Races, figures say not as good as it once was in Hcaps (see above) Ability To Work Hard – 5. Was once a 10 (at least!) but due to a young family it’s just not possible to plough in the hours I once did. This has possibly become my biggest problem area. I still work hard when I am able to but I’m not always able to. Decisiveness - 7. I’m not bad. Sometimes, you just know when it’s a good bet. These are the best bets and the most profitable imho. If you’re not sure and are faffing about making the wager then it’s probably going to pay to stay out. Patience – 10. Can go days without a bet if I can’t find one. Not a problem – in fact, it’s sometimes a pleasure!! Can be frustrating - usually after a successful big meeting if there isn't a bet but it doesn't cost me money to stay out. Reasonable Expectations – 4 – my expectations have fallen over the years as the landscape has changed so dramatically. I suspect I am constantly frustrated by the aforementioned account closure though and in the back of my mind, hanker for the days you could have £200 as opposed to £3.65 at the best advertised price in shop and/or online. This doesn’t help profit and whilst it’s not realistic to achieve what I once did, I think I sub-consciously beat myself up over this which probably isn’t helpful. I’m no longer sure I can beat the game which quite possibly means I shouldn’t be playing it anymore Control of Fear & Greed – 9 – don’t tilt, don’t increase stakes, do fail to bet on a rare occasion if on a losing run. Sense of Worth – 6. Tricky….. I tell people I am a Bookmaker as opposed to a ‘Gambler’. They look at me as if I said ‘Arms Dealer’ or ‘Drug Lord’. It would be worse if I said ‘Gambler’. As a single man I was proud to be sticking 2 fingers up to the tax man and the ‘Matrix’ society we live in – not so much now though. I must admit, if I could turn back time, I would have kept the day job on too. Betting Bank – 10 – Am well in control and betting bank is big in comparison to bet size. Possibly too big but I’m not in a position where I can afford to go bust and due to identifying how badly I handle losing runs, I prefer it this way. Betting with the money you have in your pocket or the money you can afford that month is, with respect, the actions of a Recreational Punter at best. Coping with Losing Runs – 1. I don’t consider ‘my’ money to be mine anymore and that compounds the losing run 10fold. I have started laying in the last year which helps but is by far and away my weakest area. There is so, so much more to the phychological side of punting - some of the above is possibly crowbarred in to 'emotion' but if you do any of them badly, it will affect your punting and your potential profitability. Hopefully someone, somewhere will get something from my ramblings but I would say with 99% certainty that most people could improve their wagering through analysis of what they do and how they do it.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Betting without emotion Very very good post Saint, although I'm not a pro, when I have taken my medication I do make an effort to follow what you've just posted.

[The Saint]

Re: Betting without emotion

Very very good post Saint' date=' although I'm not a pro, when I have taken my medication I do make an effort to follow what you've just posted.[/quote'] Neither am I mate - I'd consider that I'd have to be making more than minimum wage to be that!! It's a somewhat pivotal time in life :unsure Change in circumstance = Change in results it would seem.

[Kithanga]

Re: Betting without emotion Discipline: 5 Very rarely tempted to go on tilt and 2010 last time I did and it lasted 1 bet (doubled normal stake). Very inconsistent on approach and staking. Keep changing to find one I'm happy with but not yet settled. I know this is costing me as level stake over the years would have seen me do better. Judgement: 8 As good as anyone at assessing a race and choosing which ones to leave alone. Ability to work hard: 10 More time than ever to focus on this now. Decisiveness: 4 In a race I'm good but with overall approach I'm terrible Patience: 10 Happy to not bet if there's no opportunity. Reasonable Expectations: 9 It's a hobby. I don't need to win and target 5-20% ROI. Control of fear and greed: 9 As per your answer, only increase stake once Bank allows Sense of Worth: 10 No problems at all in this sphere any more as I don't tend to tell others how well or badly I'm doing. In fact I usually say I'm losing a little bit but that it's costing no more than any other hobby. People like that answer as it matches their perceptions of how it should be. I long gave up telling people I win as you just get a knowing smirk or some comment about your last bet losing. I only open up to other punters who win as I can have a proper conversation with them and can't be arsed with what joe public think any more Betting Bank: 10 Money's not an issue as I bet well within my means. Could replace the betting bank several times over from other investments but would like to increase stakes faster so profit in £'s is bigger and then it could fund some fun extra's Coping with losing runs: 5 Getting better but always room for improvement. If I had a consistent approach that I could stick with and be happy with they'd be easier to cope with as I just find them frustrating more than anything else

[BillyHills]

Re: Betting without emotion Saint does the fact you dont cope well with losing runs ultimately means you have less bets that you would like? Or does this make you more selective and benefit your bottom line? I think confidence can be key in race judgement.

[The Saint]

Re: Betting without emotion

Saint does the fact you dont cope well with losing runs ultimately means you have less bets that you would like? Or does this make you more selective and benefit your bottom line? I think confidence can be key in race judgement.

I would say it makes me almost too selective. Whether it be too much rigidity in the selection process or suddenly valuing money in a different light, I'm way down on the number of back bets I'd once have had. It's entirely possible I don't have that big an edge anymore or it might just be a bad run - or maybe I just kind find 'value' anymore. Silly thing is, a little like Kithanga, I'm not down, just have an ROI of less than 4% and that's too much stress and not enough profit for the current turnover to be sustainable. Would just ramp stakes but I'm not happy betting at a higher level and out of my own personal 'comfort zone'. I'd agree with you that confidence defiantly helps with judgement - when confidence is at it's peak you almost know when you have picked a winner even before the race is run!! Possibly the mind playing tricks too mind you. On a low eb the punter almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and if there is something that can go wrong it will!! All part of the great tapestry that is horse racing and punting on it.