Aidymac Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Wigan Athletic v Swansea City (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.65[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.53 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Wigan have been dealt a fair hand here IMO. There's probably only two other sides they'd have preferred to play right now. The other two obviously being Reading and Q.P.R. Swansea have been on a plane for much of 2013 so I think if Wigan are ever going to get out of the relegation places it's now, using their game in hand to potentially overtake Sunderland. Although the price looks on the skinny side I wouldn't turn my nose up at it. Two possession sides, obviously whoever scores first is crucial. I think although the FA Cup is a nice day out they won't realistically have much chance of winning it, and the EPL is much more of an important factor. Having said that you'd expect a few of the Wigan players to not be risking injury this close to Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May 4pts Over 2.5 goals 10/11 William Hill Even without Michu for Swansea I’m still reluctant to back Wigan at odds on. I know they come alive in April and May and I know this is must win but it just doesn’t sit right with me backing them at 4/5. Instead I think we’ll see goals in this match. Wigan have to score but they can’t defend while Swansea still have goalscorers in their side without Michu so I like the idea of over 2.5 goals here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wigan-vs-swansea-betting-goals-should-come-along-in-must-win-game-for-the-home-side-20130507 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May If you dont see a wigan win here, you must be a swans supporter, someone tell me how swansea will get anything here. 5 star wigan home win, you dont say that many times in a season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garyfinny Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May I'm not a Wigan fan, but I don't really fancy them at the current odds. Of course, it's a must win game for them, but then again they are at the bottom of the table for a pretty good reason: over the course of the season they have been one of the worst sides. Personally I don't believe they should be at such odds against anyone in the League. Their record versus top-half opposition is pitiful, 3-2-13. In contrast, Swansea have only lost 3 times against bottom half sides. The obvious argument is that Swansea are not a top-half team at the moment as they have nothing to play for. But then again, I can't help feel that Wigan will be distracted by the Cup Final. Even though they won against West Brom, I don't think they played well at all and rode their luck; they were cut open several times by some slick passing moves and we all know what Swansea's type of play is. Wigan are no doubt favourites but with the worst defensive home record in the League - leaking 2 goals a game on average, you would think they might have to score 2 or more to win this. I think I would want more than evens to take them, I feel the overs are a far safer bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfie White Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May I hate betting on "must win" games. There simply is too much factors that can decide the game and it is too hard to include them all while deciding where you should place your money on. Wigan had couple of nice matches in the past couple of weeks. They have managed to pick up a point against Tottenham, and to nick all 3 against West Brom. Since it's a do or die situation for them I think they will strike hard as they have quite a few injury problems in their back line - Beausejour, Ramis, Alcaraz and Figueroa, they will have to score a goal more than Swansea. Swansea is safe, top middle table position with 43 points can bring us very open and interesting match. They don't have any kind of imperative and since they have failed to score in the past 3 matches and because of all injury problems Wigan has at the moment I think they will manage to find the back of the net at least once. Both team to score, 1.8 @ b365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotoSchillaci Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Wigan are no doubt favourites but with the worst defensive home record in the League - leaking 2 goals a game on average, you would think they might have to score 2 or more to win this. I think I would want more than evens to take them, I feel the overs are a far safer bet. If you want to bring season long stats into it yes, in 17 home games Wigan conceded 34 goals 2 per game. However Wigan are 8th on the form ladder (last 6 games) while Swans are 18th. In their last 3 home games Wigan have only conceded 3 goals that's 1 goal per game. Overall will any of the above affect the outcome of this match anywhere near as much as what the 22 players do on the field? No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garyfinny Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May In that case, why use stats at all? I notice you used the last 3 home games. Why did you not make it 4? You have to consider everything - relative to the price. Did you see Wigan's defence in the last game and against Spurs? They are poor defensively, that is pretty much a season long trend. Overall will that have any effect on the outcome of the match? Of course it does. Even if the match sticks to your short term average - Wigan conceding one goal per game, Wigan will still have to score 2 or more to win the game. The conclusion being that BTTS to score offers better value than the outright Wigan win. That's only my opinion, yours might be different. I still think Wigan are favourites, just not at the current price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banker101 Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Backing Wigan here is the easy bet, but for anyone looking for another angle, how about backing Newcastle to go down? they will drop to 18th if Wigan win, and can see their price dropping from 5.7 to around 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May No bet for me. I think Wigan should be favourites, but current odds of 1.83 aren't attractive enough for me. Wigan are the sort of side who seem to do better away from home - and they might not find this game easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Lay Wigan @ 1.83 Betfair (3 Points) So many people seem to be taking it for granted that Wigan will win tonight. With the pressure really on, I don't see it that way. Wigan and Swansea are similar type sides but over the course of the season, the Swans have proven to be more the rounded team who can be very difficult to beat.Yes they have nothing to play for as such but Laudrup will be wanting to finish as high up the table as possible. When you really need 3 points like Wigan do it can create nerves and Swansea have the advantage of avoiding this. Uktimately, you've got to play the odds and to my mind Wigan shouldn't be under evens and as such I'm happy to lay them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxtrot Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May I'm quite shocked to see most people here backing against Wigan. Wigan is in a very good form right now. They outplayed Man City, a game they should have won or gotten at least a point but they lost 0-1. They lost to West Ham 0-2 but West Ham is a very strong team at home, they almost beat Tottenham (a top 4 contender) if not for Gareth Bale late equalizer, they came from behind to beat West Brom away and West Brom is a pretty strong team at home. This is a no brainer for me. Wigan at all fronts on the 1x2. I'd still back them even if Swansea scores first because I believe they can come from behind to win again. Wigan will win this match and continue it's 9th consecutive EPL season great escape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Uktimately' date= you've got to play the odds and to my mind Wigan shouldn't be under evens and as such I'm happy to lay them. It boils down to this: Do Wigan have more or less than a 54.6% chance of winning the game? That's what the current odds of 1.83 translate to (1/1.83) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iolanthe Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Understand all the arguments for and against Wigan here, but surprised that nobody fancies Swansea at a hugely inflated 4/1. Wigan's odds-on looks excessively short, based on their recent history of getting out of the mire late in the day. Swansea haven't become a bad team overnight, Wigan haven't become a good one, and those two facts alone would have me back the away team at 5/2 or bigger. Plus the Latics have injured players and a cup final around the corner. Swansea would look right at half the price, i reckon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May I'm on the draw @ 3.83, which I believe holds better value than the straight Swansea win. Even when Swans were flying, they were more likely to draw than win, and with Wigan fighting to their last breath I think this is a better scenario for a team that don't score away a hell of a lot, esp without Michu. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iolanthe Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May I'm on the draw @ 3.83' date=' which I believe holds better value than the straight Swansea win. Even when Swans were flying, they were more likely to draw than win, and with Wigan fighting to their last breath I think this is a better scenario for a team that don't score away a hell of a lot, esp without Michu.[/quote'] Agree that the draw is the more likely outcome than a Swansea win, but not sure it holds better value at the prices. (Depends how you bet i suppose; i'm a high-risk / low strike-rate merchant. It hurts a lot but i'm up.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harmony2008 Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Wonder y every1 is goin for wigan straight win@ dat short odd.d best bet for dis game is over2.5, wigan has just 1 clean sheet in their last 5 home matches,with 4 games goin over2.5 has just one under in their last 5 away games.though they(swansea) ve bin blank lately,tink they are due for a goal,wil play relaxed wit a wigan side dat nids a victory,expects a game of 2-1 scoreline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harmony2008 Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May would b surprise if d game does nt cross d over2.5 line.gud luck... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Also took Swansea to score @ 1.58...a bit of a risk, but given Wigan's defensive issues this seems low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Well, agree, 6.0 is a bigger price than 3.8, but across the league draws occur with much greater frequency than away wins by underdogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May This is the lowest bet365 price for a Wigan home win all season. The two other games where they were below even money.... versus Reading 1.83 (scoreline 3-2) versus Norwich 1.95 (scoreline 1-0) The bookies are expecting a wigan win and they will deliver. This is an average team that punches above it's weight season after season. They have BMT, they win the big games, and they have been in this situation before. Swansea on the other hand are mid-table safe, with nothing to play for, missing their top goal scorer. 9/10 home win is a lovely thing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glennhughes Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May 35 minutes into this game and it's like watching paint dry,I'm glad I didn't place a bet on.I fear for the over 2.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Wonder y every1 is goin for wigan straight win@ dat short odd.d best bet for dis game is over2.5' date=' wigan has just 1 clean sheet in their last 5 home matches,with 4 games goin over2.5 has just one under in their last 5 away games.though they(swansea) ve bin blank lately,tink they are due for a goal,wil play relaxed wit a wigan side dat nids a victory,expects a game of 2-1 scoreline.[/quote'] :welcome to PL mate :) Could you please write your posts in written English in future :ok As it's very hard for members to understand otherwise ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harmony2008 Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May :welcome to PL mate :) Could you please write your posts in written English in future :ok As it's very hard for members to understand otherwise ;) sorry,tried editin my post to no avail, bet won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Understand all the arguments for and against Wigan here' date=' but surprised that nobody fancies Swansea at a hugely inflated 4/1. Wigan's odds-on looks excessively short, based on their recent history of getting out of the mire late in the day. Swansea haven't become a bad team overnight, Wigan haven't become a good one, and those two facts alone would have me back the away team at 5/2 or bigger. Plus the Latics have injured players and a cup final around the corner. Swansea would look right at half the price, i reckon.[/quote'] Sad for me, but good for you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfie White Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Seems that BTS calls go trough most of the times in "must win" matches. gz to winners! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iolanthe Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Re: Wigan Athletic v Swansea City > Tue 7th May Sad for me' date=' but good for you![/quote'] Bad luck mate, you can't win em all. With your line of reasoning, you should do alright though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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