Money Management & Staking Plans

[mowgli77]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=class: xl63]Date[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Horse[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 122]Course[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 67]Trip[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 81]Class[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 70]Odds[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 75]Result[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 75]Stake[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 70]Return[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 69]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Gavlar - They are the headings I use on my spreadsheet. You can see what courses you do well at/poor at, distances you do well/poor at, class of racing that returns a profit for you and then stake/return/profit or loss. Basic but works for me.

[Gavlar17]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans

[TABLE] [TR] [TD=class: xl63]Date[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Horse[/TD] [TD=class: xl63]Course[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 67]Trip[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 81]Class[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 70]Odds[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 75]Result[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 75]Stake[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 70]Return[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 69]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Gavlar - They are the headings I use on my spreadsheet. You can see what courses you do well at/poor at, distances you do well/poor at, class of racing that returns a profit for you and then stake/return/profit or loss. Basic but works for me.

Thanks Mowgli, it's a starting point without getting too complicated and as you say it works for you. I really want to try and get a betting system in place and start afresh for the new year. Do you think there is any relevance in recording the SP as well as the price at time of bet? I will be betting BOG anyway....

[NeilM]

I do the same- been doing it since January 1st this year and have rigidly kept to it after previous attempts failed. I always thought I did better with NH races and although I get bigger priced winners I actually get a better LSP on the flat which I'd not realised before. This may be to do with all the AW stuff though. My focus now is to try and integrate this into a staking plan for laying: I bet to a £20/point stake for the decent weekend races and work on a fiver or a tenner depending on course in the week. I need to consider whether I want to lay to gain a point or two at the weekend or stick to a tenner a point all week (I'm averse to laying to gain a fiver) which would require only two spreadsheets but also two banks. On the plus side I'd not have to mess around working out an LSP (or loss) given that I work on a different value for points depending on circumstance.

[NeilM]

Do you think there is any relevance in recording the SP as well as the price at time of bet? I will be betting BOG anyway....

I know not addressed to me but I think so as you can see how often you're beating the price. Not only does this point you to where you may be going wrong or reinforcing where you're getting it right but it also flags up any risk of getting restricted at which point you can put on a few multiples and redeem yourself with the bookie.

[The Saint]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans

I know not addressed to me but I think so as you can see how often you're beating the price. Not only does this point you to where you may be going wrong or reinforcing where you're getting it right but it also flags up any risk of getting restricted at which point you can put on a few multiples and redeem yourself with the bookie.

I have to get involved in this thread as there are some things I wish to write in CAPS!!!! :eek Should hav more time tomorrow. With regards to beating SP - at certain meetings you will nearly always beat SP as the Bookmakers on course shorten up nearly everything. A better guage of how well you might be selecting your horses is how often you beat Betfair SP as this figure is produced to a 100% book. If you are beating BETFAIR SP more often that not then given average luck, you won't be going far wrong with your profit/loss... If anyone wants a spreadsheet to record their bets, let me know what you want on it and PM your e-mail. If it doesn't get ridiculous then I can forward mine about a bit!!

[fintron]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans My spreadsheet is pretty similar to Mowgli's, it has the following headings Date Time Course Selection Stake Odds Taken Industry SP BSP In running low (Betfair) - can get this off timeform's results page Placing Profit Purpose of the in running figure is to see how many of the picks trade at odds on in running and could be viable in running lays, as opposed to backing each way for insurance.

[NeilM]

Taking the BSP into account of course brings us to another issue- commission. I'm not in the bracket but I know a few people who get the premium charge when- in my view- they aren't really winning that much. Is there a facility to compare all exchange starting prices? I've never bet with WBX so have no idea what they do.

[The Saint]

Taking the BSP into account of course brings us to another issue- commission. I'm not in the bracket but I know a few people who get the premium charge when- in my view- they aren't really winning that much. Is there a facility to compare all exchange starting prices? I've never bet with WBX so have no idea what they do.

I thought the Betfair premium charge was based on profit as opposed to turnover... Am waiting to hear back from Betdaq as to whether they extend their 3% commission beyond 2012...

[The Saint]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans With a cursory tip of the hat to Rio and others that use different level of ‘points’ with their bets, I will endeavour to put the case forward for level stakes punting. For me, a scale of say 1-5 points(I’ve even seen 1-10) within a betting bank is far too wide. I mean if 5 points is my maximum bet, then should I really be bothering with a bet that is only worth 1 point? I’m not so sure. Added to which, let’s say my 1 point bet wins at 3/1 and then my 5 point bet is beaten a ‘nose’, I’m a couple of points down and likely to be tilted all over the place!! Of course, it can go the other way, but I do not want the ‘head f***’ of being on the wrong end of a balls up/error of judgement!! I also feel that all bar a tiny minority will be influenced by the price when deciding how many points to have on a selection – particularly at a ‘learning’ level. Psychologically, if one really fancies a horse and then sees it is available at 14/1 he or she is highly likely to be put off their bet altogether or decrease their stakes to a single point. If a horse with a similar chance and confidence of our Punter behind it was 5/2 then it’s easy to imagine that they would be more inclined to stick a 4 or 5 point bet down. It’s a natural reaction but in actual fact I believe that the complete opposite should be true. I think BH has already said, YOU HAVE GOT TO GET PAID on the outsiders. If you have £5 on your 2/1s and 50p on your outsiders you are going to find it incredibly hard to come out in front imho. Personally, I am not brave enough to increase my stake on outsiders that may represent more value (according to my analysis) which is why I go with level stakes. If proof were needed, I would (and I haven’t checked this!) check the BBOTD tables for the last few years – they are collated to level stakes. This year, I would wager that the likely winner (Aidy) has created such a good profit from a variety of prices - level stakes well over 100 points profit. However, IF the same selections had, had 5 points on the lower priced selections and only 1 on the longer priced ones, the overall profit/ROI would be a lot less. I might be wrong but the vast majority of punters are ultimately going to be influenced by price and that is wrong, wrong, wrong! Being influenced by ‘market moves’ and price are not the same thing… Just to be clear! A further issue with ‘point’ betting is that of getting on. If your ‘point’ is anything above £50 you are largely going to struggle to get on with a Bookmaker at the best price available. By this, I mean if you want a 5 point win (£250) on a horse that’s a best price of 12/1, you have very little chance of getting on if the horse is likely to be backed or unless you have very fast fingers, multiple accounts and ways of staying undetected from Mr Bookmaker that you are, in fact, the same person! Assuming that we all hope to make money from our gambling and have established the basics such as betting bank, it is important to keep your stakes progressive and increase them in line with your betting bank when it is appropriate. Some of the following was not my approach originally and credit should be given to 3legsandawheel who post on PL on occasion. He advocates (and I concur) that once a betting bank has doubled, half of this increase should be retained and then the remainder becomes your new betting bank and a new stake is established. There is slightly more to it than this but the main point as I see it is that if you are increasing your betting bank then you need to increase your stake in order to make the most ‘use’ of this betting bank!! To establish your stake, you need to establish what your longest losing run is likely to be over a year/season/100 bets or whatever time period you want to use. Personally, I use a year. Once you have established your Longest Losing Run, you will need to at least double this figure (I quadruple mine) and divide your betting bank by that total. That is then your stake. I’ll try and find the formula for calculating your LLR and add it to this post a bit later. The best of luck to you all in 2013 but as BH has eluded to, if you get this aspect(staking) of your punting wrong you are destined to fail no matter how good your selections are.

[Gavlar17]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans

With a cursory tip of the hat to Rio and others that use different level of ‘points’ with their bets, I will endeavour to put the case forward for level stakes punting. For me, a scale of say 1-5 points(I’ve even seen 1-10) within a betting bank is far too wide. I mean if 5 points is my maximum bet, then should I really be bothering with a bet that is only worth 1 point? I’m not so sure. Added to which, let’s say my 1 point bet wins at 3/1 and then my 5 point bet is beaten a ‘nose’, I’m a couple of points down and likely to be tilted all over the place!! Of course, it can go the other way, but I do not want the ‘head f***’ of being on the wrong end of a balls up/error of judgement!! I also feel that all bar a tiny minority will be influenced by the price when deciding how many points to have on a selection – particularly at a ‘learning’ level. Psychologically, if one really fancies a horse and then sees it is available at 14/1 he or she is highly likely to be put off their bet altogether or decrease their stakes to a single point. If a horse with a similar chance and confidence of our Punter behind it was 5/2 then it’s easy to imagine that they would be more inclined to stick a 4 or 5 point bet down. It’s a natural reaction but in actual fact I believe that the complete opposite should be true. I think BH has already said, YOU HAVE GOT TO GET PAID on the outsiders. If you have £5 on your 2/1s and 50p on your outsiders you are going to find it incredibly hard to come out in front imho. Personally, I am not brave enough to increase my stake on outsiders that may represent more value (according to my analysis) which is why I go with level stakes. If proof were needed, I would (and I haven’t checked this!) check the BBOTD tables for the last few years – they are collated to level stakes. This year, I would wager that the likely winner (Aidy) has created such a good profit from a variety of prices - level stakes well over 100 points profit. However, IF the same selections had, had 5 points on the lower priced selections and only 1 on the longer priced ones, the overall profit/ROI would be a lot less. I might be wrong but the vast majority of punters are ultimately going to be influenced by price and that is wrong, wrong, wrong! Being influenced by ‘market moves’ and price are not the same thing… Just to be clear! A further issue with ‘point’ betting is that of getting on. If your ‘point’ is anything above £50 you are largely going to struggle to get on with a Bookmaker at the best price available. By this, I mean if you want a 5 point win (£250) on a horse that’s a best price of 12/1, you have very little chance of getting on if the horse is likely to be backed or unless you have very fast fingers, multiple accounts and ways of staying undetected from Mr Bookmaker that you are, in fact, the same person! Assuming that we all hope to make money from our gambling and have established the basics such as betting bank, it is important to keep your stakes progressive and increase them in line with your betting bank when it is appropriate. Some of the following was not my approach originally and credit should be given to 3legsandawheel who post on PL on occasion. He advocates (and I concur) that once a betting bank has doubled, half of this increase should be retained and then the remainder becomes your new betting bank and a new stake is established. There is slightly more to it than this but the main point as I see it is that if you are increasing your betting bank then you need to increase your stake in order to make the most ‘use’ of this betting bank!! To establish your stake, you need to establish what your longest losing run is likely to be over a year/season/100 bets or whatever time period you want to use. Personally, I use a year. Once you have established your Longest Losing Run, you will need to at least double this figure (I quadruple mine) and divide your betting bank by that total. That is then your stake. I’ll try and find the formula for calculating your LLR and add it to this post a bit later. The best of luck to you all in 2013 but as BH has eluded to, if you get this aspect(staking) of your punting wrong you are destined to fail no matter how good your selections are.

A great read Saint. I must say, level stakes is definitely something which I have taken to as a beginner. Not a truer word spoken regarding the relationship between number of points and the price of your selection. Lumping on short priced favourite and having a couple of quid on an outsider, for every short priced fav that loses it takes almost 2 or 3 big prices to recoup your loss. For me personally, level stakes is the way to go. The only obstacle i have to overcome is patience. Lots (and too many) of people think you can get rich quick kn this game but its nigh on impossible. Take your time, build your bank and increase your stakes gradually in line with your bank. I think the calcs you've put up previous are an excellent starting point for anyone. Good stuff as always mate.

[RIO2014]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans A great read Saint. I must say, level stakes is definitely something which I have taken to as a beginner. Not a truer word spoken regarding the relationship between number of points and the price of your selection. Lumping on short priced favourite and having a couple of quid on an outsider, for every short priced fav that loses it takes almost 2 or 3 big prices to recoup your loss. For me personally, level stakes is the way to go. The only obstacle i have to overcome is patience. Lots (and too many) of people think you can get rich quick kn this game but its nigh on impossible. Take your time, build your bank and increase your stakes gradually in line with your bank. I think the calcs you've put up previous are an excellent starting point for anyone. Good stuff as always mate. Also m8, plan your holidays, dont let it run you, take your days off...Never think what if!, Yes you can make money...it aint easy..but dont let the whole thing consume you, You still have to live and enjoy yourself.:D

[jayalexander]

Ratchet staking, Saint. Somewhat similar to what you speak of, but much more profitable providing you use your bank effectively.

[The Saint]

Ratchet staking' date=' Saint. Somewhat similar to what you speak of, but much more profitable providing you use your bank effectively.[/quote'] I'll have a butchers as soon as I can Jay

[mowgli77]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans Quick question - if you back more than one in a race and for example have 3 in one race and 2 in another but no return do you view it as 2 losses (in terms of 2 races) or 5 losses in a row (number of horses backed). I view it as the latter but it can sometimes look a bit skewed on a spreadsheet. I've managed to keep my stakes fairly level and stopped whacking up stakes on short prices as my record on them is poor anyway.

[BillyHills]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans Source: Flatstats A. There is a simple formula you can use to determine the longest winning / losing streak of an event. Here's the formula: Log(RUNS) / -Log(PROB) Where Ln is the Natural Logarithm Function, RUNS is the maximum number of runs in a sequence and PROB is the probability of the event happening. e.g. In the past 10 years on the Flat Turf there were 33,084 races so if we wanted to check the longest losing run of favourites over this period assume RUNS = 33084 The strike rate of favourites on the Flat Turf during this period was 31.7% so the probability of them winning is 0.317. But as we want to calculate the longest losing run we need the probability of them losing. This is simply 1 - prob of winning = 1 - 0.317 = 0.683 We therefore set PROB = 0.683 The formula is now: Log(33084) / -Log(0.683) You can work that out with a calculator or Excel. If you do you will see that the answer is 27.3 What this means is that in a sequence of 33,084 races (10 years worth of results) we can expect the longest losing streak of favourites to be around 27.

[Kithanga]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans Money Management : This is the easy part. As others have stated, set aside an amount of money you can afford to lose but which will hurt a little. I think it needs to hurt a little otherwise your profit will be meaningless and you won't have that drive to make sure you don't make silly mistakes. So, not too small that you don't care, but not too big so that it cripples you. Staking : I've tried all sorts of staking and unquestionably the best method (mathematically) in the long run is level stake singles win only. This beats points based (1-5, 1-10, whatever), each way, win & place and proportional staking (based on percentage, £50 at Evens, £33.33 at 2-1, etc). This is from a lengthy set of records over a number of years and many bets. The problem is that it's not the best method in practice. Why, because it stops you having those chancy 33-1 bets that generate the most profit. It's human nature to not want to lose and it will push you more toward backing the shorter priced animals that generally have a smaller profitable edge. Next year I'm going to try Win & Place at level stakes as this shows the biggest % profit of the remaining methods and compensates you when you have a horse that's placed. It makes it easier to back those outsiders if you know you'll get your stake money back. Or at least it does for me. Percentage of Bank to stake: I use the following calculation LOG (number of bets) / -LOG (100% - Strike Rate) to calculate the expected losing run from a sequence of bets. I actually multiplied the 'number of bets' by 100 for my starting bank, meaning it would take a 1 in 100 year bad run to wipe my initial bank out in any one year. From that point I've been cautious and have added 50% of the profits at the end of each month to the available Bank and recalculated the stakes, never reducing for losses, the other 50% goes into the Bank to increase the cover and at the end of the year 50% of this amount gets withdrawn and spent on the family. We shared a ice cream this year (with a flake) :-) k

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans

Quick question - if you back more than one in a race and for example have 3 in one race and 2 in another but no return do you view it as 2 losses (in terms of 2 races) or 5 losses in a row (number of horses backed). I view it as the latter but it can sometimes look a bit skewed on a spreadsheet. I've managed to keep my stakes fairly level and stopped whacking up stakes on short prices as my record on them is poor anyway.

If you look at it from the other angle & you have found the winners of both the races then would you put it down as 2 won & 3 lost? How can you ? This is your best case scenario, you can't do any better & yet your putting in a 60% losing strike rate. To me each race needs to be treated as one bet & you work out what the odds for the bet combined are & that goes in the returns. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Money Management & Staking Plans Level stakes. As I've already said, nothing wrong with level stakes, what it does imply is that you have the same level of confidence in each & every bet & I don't see that as the case. I'd agree with Kithanga that there's the element not backing the chancy 33/1 to the same stake but do you have to up to that sort of price before you think it has less chance than a shorter priced horse? Is it not human nature to think, even subconsciously that something at 10/1 has less chance than one at half the odds? More than the staking its self I was trying to put across the mental aspect, I've already said "can you ever have enough on a winner?" Be honest how many times have you gone to collect & thought "I should have had a bit more on that" The reverse is also true, how many times have thought "I had too much on that" or more likely "I shouldn't have backed that at all" after your fancy has lost. That's human nature, coupled with the 20/20 vision of hindsight. On Saturday I backed four horses at 4/1, 6/1, 13/2 & 10/1. Lets say I backed them all at level stakes, 10pts on each, 40pts in total. The 4/1 shot was my only winner & I would return 50pts from the bet. Now I could say I'd made a 20% profit on outlay which is not to be sniffed at but to me good old human nature is telling me I should have had a bit less on at least the 10/1 shot & then I could have had a bit more on the 4/1 winner. Of course if the winner had been the 10/1 shot the boots on the other foot, I've 110pts to draw & I've made 175% profit on outlay & I'm like a dog with two..... I shouldn't be but again that's human nature. Again be honest you level stakes boys, which of the two scenarios have you experienced the most? My stakes were 40, 30, 30 & 20, the 4/1 winner returned me 200 & I made 66.66% on my outlay, if one of the others had won instead I'd have been slightly better off because of the rounding off of the stakes but basically I'm looking at a similar return from any win. Now I'm not saying I don't think afterwards "I shouldn't have backed that" a bad bets a bad bet, full stop, what I'm not thinking is I had the staking wrong, although I will say again "You can never have enough on a winner" Merry Xmas, Rio.